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  • -Richard Rigby: My name is Richard Rigby.

  • I'm executive director of ANU China Institute.

  • Former diplomat.

  • Spent a good deal at my life working in or on China.

  • And today we're extremely fortunate to have with us,

  • Tan Sri Andrew Sheng

  • who is a very well-known commentator and more than a commentator

  • on matters Asian and on China in particular,

  • both as an academic but also as somebody

  • who's involved in the actual processes of reform

  • and talking about reform in China.

  • So Andrew, first of all,

  • thank you very much for agreeing to talk to us.

  • It's been wonderful to have you here at the ANU

  • for the second Crawford Australia Leadership Forum.

  • You've spoken both in a general session

  • but also in the session we had this morning on China's domestic challenges.

  • And obviously throughout China that I I'd like to speak.

  • Now some of the speakers talked about Chinese leadership and other problems.

  • But you spoke in a particularly interesting way

  • on just what you see is happening in China now,

  • the transformational nature

  • of the developments that we're witnessing.

  • And I wonder for the benefit of our viewers

  • you might be able to talk a little about this for me.

  • -Andrew Sheng: Well first of all,

  • I think one needs to have the long lens of history to understand China.

  • It was the first point.

  • Chinese bureaucracy is the oldest surviving human institution around.

  • It survives all the emperors, all the changes of regime,

  • foreign invasion, internal decay, et cetera.

  • And so when you're dealing with China

  • you must remember that you're dealing with a very old

  • and adaptable institution is point number one.

  • The second point is that China complies with the law of large numbers.

  • It's one-fifth of mankind

  • and so by the law of large numbers one-fifth the world's problems exists in China.

  • And that's the point I was trying to make.

  • And it's not just that it's one-fifth of China's internal problems,

  • but China's success or failure would affect the rest the world

  • and the world's success or failure would affect China.

  • It's just over too big and we're all living on one planet earth.

  • The third point that I would like to make is that

  • because the whole world is going through very major transformative shifts,

  • demography, climate change, technology,

  • geopolitics, the revival of the Cold War et cetera,

  • and governance,

  • you know China is evolving at, with this,

  • at a speed and scale that has never,

  • is unprecedented in history, right?

  • For China to move from a hundred over place in GDP numbers

  • to number two economy in the world in 35, 36 years is unheard of,

  • I mean you even when, you know, long-term history.

  • So this is the biggest transformation that we've seen.

  • And what has happened is that its success can only be explained

  • because the Chinese government's model,

  • whether you like it or not

  • has been an institutional development, innovation,

  • over the old bureaucracy,

  • ability to control the bureaucracy

  • and to be able to have policy objectives and policy outcomes, right.

  • You know, it started with the formal modernization in 1979

  • and it's implemented quite a lot of it

  • except that the game has changed

  • and the context has changed.

  • And I think that's the process that we need to appreciate

  • that at the present moment the Chinese economy.

  • You know, in 30 years became the world's greatest factory.

  • It's the hub of the global supply chain, right.

  • It's not very high-value production,

  • but it is still a major production.

  • Anything you can think of these days is,

  • carries that, made in China.

  • But China is now moving from that old investment-based export-led model

  • towards a knowledge-based

  • innovation-driven and consumption-driven model.

  • The best illustration of this is that

  • four out the top global fifteen Internet platforms are Chinese.

  • And, you know, there's some names that become well-known

  • like Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, jd.com,

  • transcend more electronic e-tailing business than the United States

  • because their user base is somewhere between 400 to 600 million population,

  • larger than the US population.

  • So these transformations are changing China,

  • changing the mode of governance.

  • The very fact that the CCP is, allows, these entrepreneurs now

  • to have creative destruction.

  • You must understand this,

  • these businesses have created disruptions on state-owned enterprises.

  • You know, so the whole game is remarkable.

  • And it's a remarkable march to markets

  • in spite of the fact that people accuse,

  • the leadership of autocracy, et cetera.

  • But it is a massive commitment towards market economy,

  • massive commitment to entrepreneurship and innovation,

  • and openness to the world.

  • Now, you know, whether you agree with that is another matter.

  • But that's essentially what the policy objectives are

  • and we're now looking at the outcome.

  • -Richard Rigby: I think analytically, you put your finger,

  • one of the things that makes it difficult to approach.

  • On the one hand you say quite rightly that the Chinese bureaucracy

  • is the oldest bureaucracy in the world

  • so these vast elements have continuity in China,

  • but at the same time, what is actually happening,

  • what is being undertaken by this very Chinese bureaucracy,

  • is absolutely revolutionary,

  • is something we've never seen in the world before.

  • So that does make it a little bit challenge.

  • Now you someday, I know that your own background

  • and training is entirely western oriented,

  • but at the same time you could you can draw on Asian traditions as well as,

  • plus your own contemporary involvement in China,

  • your mastery of the Chinese language,

  • from that point of view what do you think some of the more obvious mistakes

  • that Western observers of China tend to make?

  • -Andrew Sheng: Westerners tend to look at China

  • from a very theoretical point of view.

  • They love a theory.

  • They love a hypothesis.

  • They love to put, China into a box of,

  • that, this fits, this doesn't fit.

  • You know, or this is black this is white.

  • The Chinese system is actually a very complex organic system.

  • You know, governments work on network,

  • networks of networks.

  • There's a civil bureaucracy.

  • There's a military bureaucracy.

  • There is a civil society that's transforming very fast as I mentioned.

  • Religion, Buddhism, even Christianity is gathering as much membership,

  • in China as in anywhere else.

  • So all these things are simultaneously changing China.

  • And the very fact that you know on WeChat

  • one could have wonderful discussions,

  • mostly in Chinese unfortunately,

  • on policy issues belies the traditional way that there is,

  • lack of freedom of speech or discussion in China.

  • The intellectual tradition is very much alive China.

  • And a lot of the policy debates that you have in the West

  • on climate change, on pollution,

  • on social in, inequity,

  • all these are being debated very rigorously

  • and very somewhat heatedly

  • and sometimes, the authorities clamp down on this

  • so that it doesn't get out of hand, put it this way,

  • but that's -- but it is moving forward.

  • -Richard Rigby: And clearly in last year so,

  • it is true.

  • I think we have to acknowledge that in some areas

  • there has been a degree of clamping down.

  • In other areas as you say, the debate continues at pace.

  • And I'm always struck by the fact that sometimes within the system

  • that you see the most vigorous debate

  • rather than from people outside the system,

  • for instance, in our own ANU contacts with the Chinese system.

  • We look at within the central party schools

  • are there debates about democratization,

  • the future role of the party,

  • centre province relations.

  • These are all very, very vibrant.

  • Or in China international relations,

  • the China Institutes for Contemporary International Relations, CICIR,

  • which that belongs to the Minister of State Security,

  • but within which nevertheless you have a very, very vibrant debates

  • and quite meaty, arguments about the appropriate role

  • China should be playing globally.

  • I know we don't have a great deal of time,

  • but I ask you put yourself in the seat of Xi Jinping.

  • If you were Xi Jinping, what would be worrying you most?

  • What are the issues that you would be grappling with most of all do you think?

  • -Andrew Sheng: Well I think,

  • I think the --

  • first of all, I can't be and never will be.

  • But I think that's one of the toughest jobs in the world.

  • But I think what he's grappling with is that

  • he genuinely believes that there is a China dream.

  • He genuinely believes that Chinese society can be transformed towards that.

  • And that China dream is not that far different from an American Dream

  • or an Australian dream or Malaysian dream.

  • It is about middle-class income,

  • everybody having their jobs,

  • living in a world of peace and security,

  • don't have to deal with terrorism, petty crime, corruption

  • and all these sort of issues.

  • I think on that area,

  • other than, the absolute freedoms of individuals, et cetera

  • which the Chinese feel is relative,

  • I think within his lifetime and probably my lifetime

  • some progress will be made.

  • Now how much of that progress,

  • that's a very difficult question.

  • -Richard Rigby: Well, that's a very interesting point and obviously

  • precisely what is involved in the Chinese dream

  • is of increasing importance to all of us,

  • whether we exactly have the same dream or not.

  • The old Chinese expression, "tong chuang yi meng"

  • "same bed, different dreams"

  • is all very well.

  • But at the same time China is increasingly talking about peripheral diplomacy.

  • And I think Australia is definitely on the periphery,

  • talking about a community of common destiny

  • even without the formulation community of common destiny,

  • seems to me that China is now so much part of our future,

  • our futures our regional futures,

  • that whether we want it or not,

  • we are going to have at least to some degree,

  • a common destiny.

  • -Andrew Sheng: Well we are having common destinies.

  • Look at the children of the top leadership.

  • A lot of them are in ANU or in Harvard, in Stanford et cetera.

  • So the young generation thinks very much like the millennials

  • of other nationalities

  • except that they have Chinese characteristics.

  • And so if one recognizes that increasingly the framework of thinking,

  • what people care about, social justice,

  • climate change, jobs, technology,

  • having a cool life,

  • these will be the shared values

  • that we can build the common community, put it this way.

  • -Richard Rigby: Well Andrew, there's so much to talk about

  • but I realize you're very busy

  • and I really appreciate the time that you given us

  • for sharing with us your thoughts.

  • I hope in the future you might have an opportunity

  • to revisit some of these issues.

  • -Andrew Sheng: I think it's a great honour

  • and a learning experience for me to be at the ANU.

  • Thank you very much for the opportunity.

-Richard Rigby: My name is Richard Rigby.

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B1 中級

中國的崛起 (The rise of China)

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