Name: 德國股市過熱？| 觀點 (German equities overheating? | Short View)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T06:53:24.000Z
Duration: 1 min 55 s

they have long worried that their housing market is over-heating.

他們已經擔心房市好長一段時間了

Now, the're worrying about the stock market, too.

The Dax, Germany's benchmark stock index has hitted series of all-time highs over the past six weeks.

Dax （德國的加權指數）已經連續六週達到歷史最高點

It's total return this year, have beaten those of the S&P 500,

它今年的總收益率已經超過 S&P 500 指數

and, it has been a popular destination for money switching out of US equities and into European ones.

它也是講股權從美國轉入歐洲的搶手選項

But, a regular survey of German executives by Common Spike and the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management,

不過從 Common Spike 和 法蘭克福財經管理學院最近的問卷

suggested that managers' appetite for stocks is waning.

卻指出經理人對股票的需求在降低

top parameter is well out earlier this year, is such scepticism justified?

供參考的參數已經在今年稍早釋出，這樣的懷疑是否是正確的呢？

But price-earnings ratio for the Dax remains well below that of the S&P 500.

但是 Dax 的金額-盈利比是低於 S&P 500 的比率的

And, the rise in the Dax has been partly driven by improving earnings at German companies.

Dax 指數的升高有一部分原因也是因為德國公司的獲利能力的提升

Aggregate forecast the Dax companies have risen over six percent since the start of the year.

預估 Dax 公司從年頭開始上升了 6%

It is full of carmakers, capital goods and chemicals stocks.

包括製車廠、資本及化學相關的股票

Bayer, BASF, Siemens and Daimler accounts for over a third of the index's gains since December.

從12月開始計算，Bayer, BASF, Siemens 和 Daimler 這些公司的獲利就佔了三分之一

All that means it is sensitive to changes in macroeconomics sentiment.

這都代表了它對總體經濟的敏感性很高

But strategiests Deutsche Bank think that nice surprises on the macro front in Europe will become rarer in the months ahead.

但是德國銀行的策略者卻認為歐洲股市這樣不錯的情勢無法持續

And that would be bad for German cyclicals.

對德國來說，就是要開始進入週期的低迷期了

Orginary Germans have, of course, long been sceptical of their equity market's generally,

大部分的德國人都對他們的股市存有懷疑的心態

after such a strong rally in the Dax, prefessional investors would do well to exercise some cautions, too.

相信德國的投資者在面對強勢的股市表現的同時，也會做好風險的控管

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德國股市過熱？| 觀點 (German equities overheating? | Short View)