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  • The Germans are a cautious bunch,

    德國人總是很小心的

  • they have long worried that their housing market is over-heating.

    他們已經擔心房市好長一段時間了

  • Now, the're worrying about the stock market, too.

    現在,他們又開始擔心股市

  • The Dax, Germany's benchmark stock index has hitted series of all-time highs over the past six weeks.

    Dax (德國的加權指數)已經連續六週達到歷史最高點

  • It's total return this year, have beaten those of the S&P 500,

    它今年的總收益率已經超過 S&P 500 指數

  • and, it has been a popular destination for money switching out of US equities and into European ones.

    它也是講股權從美國轉入歐洲的搶手選項

  • But, a regular survey of German executives by Common Spike and the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management,

    不過從 Common Spike 和 法蘭克福財經管理學院最近的問卷

  • suggested that managers' appetite for stocks is waning.

    卻指出經理人對股票的需求在降低

  • top parameter is well out earlier this year, is such scepticism justified?

    供參考的參數已經在今年稍早釋出,這樣的懷疑是否是正確的呢?

  • Well, on the face of it, no.

    顯然並不是的

  • But price-earnings ratio for the Dax remains well below that of the S&P 500.

    但是 Dax 的金額-盈利比是低於 S&P 500 的比率的

  • And, the rise in the Dax has been partly driven by improving earnings at German companies.

    Dax 指數的升高有一部分原因也是因為德國公司的獲利能力的提升

  • Aggregate forecast the Dax companies have risen over six percent since the start of the year.

    預估 Dax 公司從年頭開始上升了 6%

  • But the Dax is highly cyclical.

    但這樣的現象也是有週期性的

  • It is full of carmakers, capital goods and chemicals stocks.

    包括製車廠、資本及化學相關的股票

  • Bayer, BASF, Siemens and Daimler accounts for over a third of the index's gains since December.

    從12月開始計算,Bayer, BASF, Siemens 和 Daimler 這些公司的獲利就佔了三分之一

  • All that means it is sensitive to changes in macroeconomics sentiment.

    這都代表了它對總體經濟的敏感性很高

  • This has been positive recently.

    這樣的現象在目前都還是好的

  • But strategiests Deutsche Bank think that nice surprises on the macro front in Europe will become rarer in the months ahead.

    但是德國銀行的策略者卻認為歐洲股市這樣不錯的情勢無法持續

  • And that would be bad for German cyclicals.

    對德國來說,就是要開始進入週期的低迷期了

  • Orginary Germans have, of course, long been sceptical of their equity market's generally,

    大部分的德國人都對他們的股市存有懷疑的心態

  • after such a strong rally in the Dax, prefessional investors would do well to exercise some cautions, too.

    相信德國的投資者在面對強勢的股市表現的同時,也會做好風險的控管

The Germans are a cautious bunch,

德國人總是很小心的

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