Name: 加利福尼亞州的大麻合法化，政策視角 (Marijuana Legalization in California, Policy Perspectives)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T06:51:55.000Z
Duration: 22 min 56 s
Description: 【看影片學英語】數萬部 YouTube 影片，搭配英漢字典即點即查，輕鬆掌握單字發音與用法，長久累積看電影不必再看字幕。

DEFAY: Hello and welcome everybody. My name is Chris DeFay. A member of the Authors@Google

team here in Santa Monica. Today, I'm pleased to introduce as part of our Tech Talk series,

Beau Kilmer. Our guest is a co-director of the RAND Corporation's Drug Policy Research

Center, which I just learned is over 20 years established, which is great. His primary field

of interests are elicit markets, community corrections, drug treatments, and he used

advanced technologies to help monitor drug and alcohol use among problem populations.

Kilmer's current work includes projects to estimate the economic cost of drug use and

the evaluations of community level effects of drug treatment. Dr. Kilmer joins us today

to discuss the policy implications of marijuana legalization in California nationally and

internationally. There's been a dramatic shift in drug policy in recent years. Ballot initiatives

have been proposed at the state level and--excuse me--and municipalities are today grappling

with how to regulate marijuana dispensaries and enforce existing drug law. Please join

me in welcoming Dr. Kilmer in discussing this fascinating topic.

>> KILMER: Thank you, Chris. And thanks to all of you for being here. So firstly, my

name is Beau Kilmer. I'm the Co-Director of the RAND Drug Policy Research Center. For

more than 20 years, we've been doing work on a variety of issues related to substance

use and drug policy. If some researchers are developing innovative prevention programs,

others doing evaluations and assessments of racial disparities and marijuana arrests,

if some folks are doing kind of high level statistical analysis of data from undercover

drug busts, and with all of these projects, the goal is to provide objective research

and analysis to decision makers. And so lately I've been working on a project looking at

marijuana legalization in California and that this is definitely a team project and I got

to be a part of a great team. I got to work with Jon Caulkins at Carnegie Mellon University,

Rosalie Pacula, who's the other Co-Director of the RAND Drug and Policy Research Center.

I got to work with Robert MacCoun at UC Berkeley and Peter Reuter at the University of Maryland.

And in addition, we actually had a number of students from Carnegie Mellon University

actually doing a lot of the background research and we wouldn't have been able to do this

without them, so thanks. So, as you know, marijuana legalization is a hot topic in California.

And most of the focus right now is on two different proposals. The first proposal is

Assembly Bill 2254, often referred to as the Ammiano Bill. And what this bill would do

is it will legalize marijuana for those who are 21 and older and it would put the California

Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control in charge of regulating the production and distribution

of marijuana and initially they will place a $50 an ounce excise tax on marijuana. Last

year, the California Board of Equalization did an analysis and said that at $50 an ounce

this would bring in $1.4 billion in tax revenue to California each year. The other proposal

being considered is the Regulate, Control and Tax Cannabis Proposition. This is what's

going to be on the ballot on at November 2010. This initiative would also legalize marijuana

for those over--those 21 and older and it would also make it legal to cultivate your

own 5x5 plot in your home. The interesting twist here is instead of having statewide

regulation, it would allow each local jurisdiction to have the power to regulate production and

come up with their own tax rates. And--but--and just to kind of put this in perspective, I

mean what these proposals really are kind of revolutionary. And no other place in the

world have we legalized the production and distribution of marijuana. You know, a lot

of people like to think, "Well, you know, and that, you know, when you go to Amsterdam

it's legal and." No. Well, it's legal to go to a coffee shop in the Netherlands and buy

five grams it's still illegal to produce it. So it's kind of it's legal in the front door,

illegal in the backdoor. So, I mean, to the extent that this hasn't happened in other

places, I mean, it's really unclear about trying to project what would happen. You know,

there's a lot of, you know, a lot of debate and there's actually a lot of rhetoric in

this debate. So, the goal of our analysis really was to just focus on two issues; one,

try to understand how legalization of marijuana in California could influence consumption

and then also look at how legalization could influence public budgets. And I want to make

it very clear that the--we did not--we neither had time nor the resources to do a comprehensive

cost-benefit analysis. I mean, our goal wasn't to, you know, come out and say, you know,

"This would be a good idea for California or this would be a bad idea for California."

Similarly, I mean, we're not trying to tell people how to vote on the initiative. You

know, RAND doesn't take positions on ballot initiatives or a specific, you know, specific

bills being considered. I mean, we really don't have a horse in this race. We just wanted

to kind of provide some objective information to actually help guide the discussion we'll

be having for the next five months here in California. And I'm sure we'll continue to

have this debate and discussion after November. So, today I want to briefly just talk about

how we built this model and then go into some of the key insights. So, you know, we begin

with this logic model where you can see on the left-hand side you've got your choice

variables. You know, when you legalize you make a choice to remove the sanctions for

possession and sales, then you also have to make decisions about the regulatory regime,

the tax rates. On the right-hand side, you have these octagons, are kind of the outcomes

that we cared about, you know, marijuana consumption and also the net impact on state and local

budgets. And as you can imagine, I mean, these policy decisions have direct and indirect

effects. And I'm not going to walk you through each of these different boxes and arrows during

the presentation but I want to make it very clear that we were systematic about this.

And so, for each of these intermediary boxes, we actually not only had to come up with a

point estimate but we also had to kind of come up with a range. And so, when we could,

you know, we looked at the peer review literature for a lot of these boxes. There wasn't a lot

there in the scientific literature. I went to the gray literature, I went to greenhouses,

talked to farmers, talked to people at medical marijuana dispensaries and we did a lot of

different things in order to kind of come up with these ranges. And I mean, while this

is useful in terms of kind of making projections for the model, just the idea of kind of bringing

all that literature together for each of these boxes turned out to yield some of our most

important insights. So now let's talk about some of the key insights. And kind of the

main takeaway from the analysis is that we expect that the pre-tax retail price of marijuana

to drop substantially post-legalization, probably on the order of 80%-90%. Right now if you

want to get an ounce of sinsemilla in California, and this is your high quality marijuana, it's

going to run you between $300 to $450. I just want to make it clear for the analyses; we

actually end up having to convert everything into sinsemilla equivalents because we know

that most of California isn't using sinsemilla right now. But in order to get an idea about

what happens to the price post-legalization, you actually have to make some assumptions

about what would production look like. You know, we just don't know, so we kind of cost

it out four different--in four different approaches. One being, you know, we would allow everyone

to do their own private hydroponic 5x5 plot. Another mode of production we looked at was

allowing residential grow houses, assume it's a $1,500 or 1,500 square foot grow house or

300 square feet, would have be devoted to production. Then you also have greenhouse

farms and then unfettered outdoor farms, you know, we costed it out for each of those.

But ultimately, we had to make a decision about which one we thought would be most likely

in order to do the projections. And we ended up focusing on the grow houses for a few reasons.

First of all, if you're a jurisdiction and you're trying to make money off of taxing

marijuana, the 5x5 plot that's just inefficient, you're not going to get that much. And with

respect to greenhouse farms, your kind of unfettered outdoor farms, you know, we don't

know what the Federal Governments' going to do. But we thought that the Federal Government

would probably have a problem with all these greenhouses and unfettered farms up and down

字幕列表影片播放

加利福尼亞州的大麻合法化，政策視角 (Marijuana Legalization in California, Policy Perspectives)

perspective

assume

figure

debate