And after the biggest commodity downturn in the generation,

而在這世代嚴重的貿易經濟衰退之後，

the market has started to recover.

市場開始復甦

But uncertainty remains, including over the oil price.

然而市場仍充滿未知，包括油價

I asked several industry experts what they think are the key themes in advance shaping commodities in 2017.

我詢問了幾位市場專家對於 2017 改善商品貿易的關鍵有哪些

So I think there will be two main drivers,

我想有兩個主因

one is gonna be China.

一個是中國大陸

We shouldn't forget that China comes for most commodities around 50% of the demand.

我們應該記得中國大陸的商品貿易交易佔了約全球的一半

And the second piece is going to be the US,

第二個關鍵則是美國

and the impact of the Trump administration.

以及川普政府伴隨而來的影響

I think we're only sending much more to the consumers, sustainability is getting to be a real issue,

我想消費者的需求會越來越大，因此永續經營將會是關鍵性指標

and we're all paying much more attention than before to sustainability.

我們也比以往更重視商品的永續性

And logistics, efficiency and technology.

還有物流、效率與科技

Those are the main themes I see in general across all commodities.

我認為這些大致上為商品貿易需要重視的事情

I think any level of uncertainty or policy which impacts trade or impacts the value of the dollar on foreign currency markets

我想只要是會影響到交易或是美元幣值的各種不確定性與政策

could impact commodity prices.

也都會影響到商品的價格

I think, and of course weather.

天氣也很重要

You never know when you're gonna get a hot, dry or unexpected weather event in either North or South America

你永遠不知道北美或南美何時會有炎熱、乾燥或是意想不到的氣候

or one of the growing regions of the world.

在世界各地貿易區也是

So that's always a variable in agricultural production.

所以天氣在農業產品中扮演著很大的變數

The two main themes are going to be geopolitics -

有兩個主要議題將會是地緣政治－

you know, what will happen out of this new study in Russian relationship?

你知道的，像是和俄羅斯的關係到底會有什麼樣的發展？

Will it get deeper or not?

關係會越來越緊密還是越來越疏離？

And the second one is technology.

第二個關鍵則是科技

We see the disrupting effect of technology has been massive,

我們都知道科技會帶來龐大的影響

and I think that's gonna have major impact in the industry.

這對貿易市場也會有所衝擊

Firstly, from a geopolitically point of view,

首先，從地緣政治的角度來看

we're seeing significant changes, potential trade barriers in the US or policy changes that will have a significant impact.

我們可以看到許多重要的改變，美國潛在的交易限制或是政策改變都會有顯著的影響

Secondly, continue emerging market growth.

再來，新興市場持續性成長

Very positive growth out of India and I think many might be surprising you have very strong demand out of China as well.

像是印度商品貿易大幅地成長，還有我想很多人為之驚訝的，對中國大陸商品的高度需求也是

And finally, we're seeing sort of financial marketing stress -

最後，我們也能看到金融市場在這扮演的角色

interest rates picking up,

利率上漲

What's gonna have on, if you like, movement of funds and how the impact on commodity process to be other main themes.

這對資金轉移以及會如何影響商品交易過程都是我們要關注的事情