How much weapons-grade nuclear material do you think it would take

你們覺得用多少核武器原材料才能將

to level a city the size of San Francisco?

舊金山那麽大的城市摧毀掉?

How many of you think it would be an amount

你們有多少人覺得它的量

about the size of this suitcase?

大約是壹個手提箱那麽大?

OK. And how about this minibus?

好的. 小巴士那麽大怎麽樣？

All right.

好吧.

Well actually, under the right circumstances,

其實,在合適的情況下,

an amount of highly enriched uranium about the size of your morning latte

壹杯早晨喝的拿鐵的濃縮鈾量

would be enough to kill 100,000 people

就足夠殺死10萬人

instantly.

在壹瞬間.

Hundreds of thousands of others would become horribly ill,

幾十萬人會變發生恐怖病變,

and parts of the city would be uninhabitable for years,

而且城市的很多部分在許多年裏都會寸草不生,

if not for decades.

要不就是幾十年.

But you can forget that nuclear latte,

但是你可以忘記那杯核拿鐵,

because today's nuclear weapons are hundreds of times more powerful

因為如今的核武器的威力比以前的強

even than those we dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

甚至比廣島和長崎發射的核武器強了幾百倍.

And even a limited nuclear war involving, say, tens of nuclear weapons,

即使在壹個限制核武器的戰爭中, 說, 幾十枚核導彈,

could lead to the end of all life on the planet.

就可以消滅地球上的所有生物.

So it's really important that you know

所以這件事很重要你要知道

that right now we have over 15,000 nuclear weapons

如今我們已經有超過15000枚核武器

in the hands of nine nations.

被9個國家所掌控.

And if you live in a city or near a military facility,

如果你住在壹個城市或者在軍事設施附近,

one is likely pointed right at you.

有壹枚核彈很可能正瞄準著你.

In fact, if you live in any of the rural areas

事實上, 如果你們生活在任何偏遠地區

where nuclear weapons are stored globally,

核武器被儲存在世界各地,

one is likely pointed at you.

有壹枚很可能正瞄準著你.

About 1,800 of these weapons are on high alert,

有大約1800枚隨時待命的核彈,

which means they can be launched within 15 minutes

也就是說在15分鐘內它們就可以發射

of a presidential command.

在某個總統的指令下.

So I know this is a bummer of an issue,

我明白這個問題很煩人,

and maybe you have that -- what was it? -- psychic fatigue

你也可能有那個什麽來著？--心理疲勞

that we heard about a little bit earlier.

關於它我們之前有聽說過壹點.

So I'm going to switch gears for just a second,

所以我將要轉移話題壹會兒,

and I'm going to talk about my imaginary friend,

我所要說的是關於我想象出來的朋友,

who I like to think of as Jasmine,

我把她想作賈絲明

just for a moment.

只是壹小會兒.

Jasmine, at the age of 25,

賈絲明, 在她25歲的時候

is part of a generation that is more politically and socially engaged

他是那種活躍於政治和社交那壹代人的壹员

than anything we've seen in 50 years.

比我們50年中所見到的都要活躍

She and her friends think of themselves

她和她的朋友把自己比作

as change agents and leaders and activists.

改變的代理人,領袖和積極分子.

I think of them as Generation Possible.

我認為他們是可能的壹代人.

They regularly protest about the issues they care about,

他們定期抗議那些他們關心的問題,

but nuclear weapons are not one of them, which makes sense,

但是核武器不是問題中的壹個這就很說得通了,

because Jasmine was born in 1991, at the end of the Cold War.

因為賈思明出生於1991年, 是冷戰結束的那年.

So she didn't grow up hearing a lot about nuclear weapons.

所以她在成長過程中從來沒有聽過核武器.

She never had to duck and cover under her desk at school.

她從來沒有在學校的桌子底下進行躲避和遮蓋.

For Jasmine, a fallout shelter is an app in the Android store.

對於賈思明, 余波庇護所是壹個安卓商城裏的軟件.

Nuclear weapons help win games.

核武器幫助她贏得遊戲勝利.

And that is really a shame,

這是壹個恥辱,

because right now, we need Generation Possible

因為如今，我需要可能的壹代人

to help us make some really important decisions about nuclear weapons.

來幫助我們做出壹些關於核武器的重大決策.

For instance, will we further reduce our nuclear arsenals globally,

比如說, 我們要進壹步全球性的削減核武器軍工廠嘛,

or will we spend billions,

或者我們還需花幾十億,

maybe a trillion dollars,

可能幾玩意美元,

to modernize them so they last throughout the 21st century,

使軍工廠現代化來讓它們在整個21世紀被保留下來,

so that by the time Jasmine is my age, she's talking to her children

當賈思明到我這個年齡時, 她會跟自己的孩子們,

and maybe even her grandchildren

甚至可能她的孫子們講

about the threat of nuclear holocaust?

關於核浩劫麽？

And if you're paying any attention at all to cyberthreats,

如果我們把註意力都放在網絡威脅,

or, for instance, if you've read about the Stuxnet virus

或者比如說如果我們已經知道的超級工廠病毒

or, for God's sake, if you've ever had an email account or a Yahoo account

或者看在上帝份上如果你曾有壹個郵箱賬號或者雅虎賬號

or a phone hacked,

或者手機被黑客攻擊,

you can imagine the whole new world of hurt that could be triggered

你可以想象出壹個充滿痛苦的新世界

by modernization in a period of cyberwarfare.

因爲網絡戰爭時期的現代化.

Now, if you're paying attention to the money,

如果現在你重視怎麽使用資金,

a trillion dollars could go a long way

幾十億美元可以走很長壹段路

to feeding and educating and employing people,

被用來養活, 教育, 雇傭那些,

all of which could reduce the threat of nuclear war to begin with.

可以降低開啓核戰爭的威脅的人們.

So --

所以呢 --

(Applause)

（掌聲）

This is really crucial right now,

這個現在是非常關鍵的,

because nuclear weapons -- they're vulnerable.

因為核武器非常脆弱.

We have solid evidence

我們有強有力的證據

that terrorists are trying to get ahold of them.

恐怖組織的人正在嘗試去掌握它.

Just this last spring,

就在上壹個春季,

when four retirees and two taxi drivers were arrested

四個退休人員和兩個出租車司機被拘捕

in the Republic of Georgia

發生在喬治亞共和國

for trying to sell nuclear materials for 200 million dollars,

拘捕原因是販賣核武器原材料標價2個多億美元,

they demonstrated that the black market for this stuff is alive and well.

他們解釋了關於這方面的黑市很活躍.

And it's really important,

而且這很重要,

because there have been dozens of accidents

因為已經有十多起事故

involving nuclear weapons,

是關於核武器的,

and I bet most of us have never heard anything about them.

我敢打賭你們大部分人從來都沒有聽過它們中的任何壹件

Just here in the United States,

就在美國,

we've dropped nuclear weapons on the Carolinas twice.

我們已經在卡羅萊納州投放了兩次核武器.

In one case, one of the bombs,

在某壹事件中，其中壹枚導彈,

which fell out of an Air Force plane,

從空軍飛機投擲下來,

didn't detonate

卻沒有爆炸

because the nuclear core was stored somewhere else on the plane.

因為核武器裡面的核心被存放在了飛機上的某個位置.

In another case, the weapon did arm when it hit the ground,

在另壹起事件中,

and five of the switches designed to keep it from detonating failed.

然而在其中的五個用來防止爆炸的開關壞了.

Luckily, the sixth one didn't.

幸運的是，第六個開關沒有壞.

But if that's not enough to get your attention,

如果這都不能讓你吸引你的注意力的話,

there was the 1995 Black Brant incident.

在1995年發生過黑色布兰特恐慌事故.

That's when Russian radar technicians saw

當時俄羅斯雷達專家看見了

what they thought was a US nuclear missile

壹個他們以為是美國核導彈的東西

streaking towards Russian airspace.

飛向了俄羅斯空域.

It later turned out to be a Norwegian rocket

之後的結果是那是壹枚來自挪威的火箭

collecting data about the northern lights.

用來收集關於北極光的數據.

But at that time,

然而就在那個時刻,

Russian President Boris Yeltsin came within five minutes

俄羅斯總統鲍里斯·叶利钦五分鐘后

of launching a full-scale retaliatory nuclear attack

決定開啟全規模的報復性核攻擊

against the United States.

針對美國.

So, most of the world's nuclear nations

因此, 大部分擁有核武器的國家

have committed to getting rid of these weapons of mass destruction.

已經承諾正在削減這些杀伤力很大的武器.

But consider this:

但是我們來考慮壹下這個:

the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,

核武器不再生合約,

which is the most widely adopted arms control treaty in history

是迄今為止采納最廣泛的合约

with 190 signatories,

有190個簽字人,

sets no specific date by which the world's nuclear-armed nations

沒有為核武器國家規定具體日期

will get rid of their nuclear weapons.

讓他們消除核武器.

Now, when John F. Kennedy sent a man to the moon

如今, 當約翰肯尼迪把壹名男子送到了月亮上

and decided to bring him back, or decided to do both those things,

之後決定把他帶回來或者決定倆件事都做,

he didn't say, "Hey, whenever you guys get to it."

他沒有說過, “喂, 你們什麼時候都可以去那裡."

He gave us a deadline.

他給了我們壹個截止日期.

He gave us a challenge

他給我們壹個挑戰

that would have been incredible just a few years earlier.

在那個時候的幾年前這還是壹件很不可思議的想法.

And with that challenge,

然而伴隨著那個挑戰,

he inspired scientists and marketers,

他啟迪了那些科學家和營銷者,

astronauts and schoolteachers.

天空飛行員和學校老師.

He gave us a vision.

他給了我們壹個設想.

But along with that vision,

但是伴隨著那個設想,

he also tried to give us -- and most people don't know this, either --

他嘗試給我們的還有大部分人對此並不知道

he tried to give us a partner

他嘗試給我們壹個合作夥伴

in the form of our fiercest Cold War rival, the Soviet Union.

以我們兇狠的的冷戰對手形態出現的蘇維埃共和國.

Because part of Kennedy's vision for the Apollo program

因為肯尼迪關於阿波羅計劃設想的壹部分

was that it be a cooperation, not a competition, with the Soviets.

是壹種與蘇維埃的合作而不是競爭.

And apparently, Nikita Khrushchev, the Soviet Premier, agreed.

很顯然, 赫鲁晓夫, 苏维埃的總理, 同意了.

But before that cooperation could be realized,

但是當合作被實現之前,

Kennedy was assassinated,

肯尼迪遇刺,

and that part of the vision was deferred.

那壹部分設想被推遲啦.

But the promise of joint innovation between these two nuclear superpowers

但是兩個核武器超級大國間共同改革的承諾

wasn't totally extinguished.

沒有完全消失.

Because in 1991, which is the year that Jasmine was born

因為在1991年, 賈思明出生了

and the Soviet Union fell,

與此同時蘇維埃共和國倒塌了,

these two nations engaged in a project

這兩個共同致力於同壹個項目

that genuinely does seem incredible today

在如今看來真的很不可思議

in the truest sense of that word,

真正意义上来讲,

which is that the US sent cash to the Russians when they needed it most,

當俄羅斯急需要錢時美國資助了他們,

to secure loose nuclear materials

來確保loose核武器,

and to employ out-of-work nuclear scientists.

用來僱傭那些失業的核專家.

They worked alongside American scientists to convert weapons-grade uranium

他們在美國科學家的陪同下將武器級的铀

into the type of fuel that can be used for nuclear power instead.

裝換為可以用于核動力的燃料.

They called it, "Megatons to Megawatts."

他們管這個叫, “兆噸至兆瓦計劃.”

So the result is that for over 20 years,

所以成果持續了20年之久,

our two nations had a program

兩個國家有壹個項目

that meant that one in 10 lightbulbs in the United States

目的是让在美国的十分之壹个灯泡的

was essentially fueled by former Russian warheads.

能源主要来自前苏联的弹头.

So, together these two nations did something truly audacious.

因此, 这两个国家真正的壹起做了壹件胆大的事.

But the good news is, the global community has the chance

但是好消息是, 在此刻全球社區有了

to do something just as audacious today.

壹個可以大膽做事情的機會.

To get rid of nuclear weapons

為了消除核武器

and to end the supply of the materials required to produce them,

還有停止供應生產他們的原材料,

some experts tell me would take 30 years.

有些專家告訴我需要花費30年.

It would take a renaissance of sorts,

它將需要復興,

the kinds of innovation that, for better or worse,

那類可以往好的也可以忘懷的發展的創新,

underpinned both the Manhattan Project, which gave rise to nuclear weapons,

亦可以鞏固了那個造就了核武器曼哈頓計劃,

and the Megatons to Megawatts program.

也能促進兆噸至兆瓦計劃.

It would take design constraints.

它可能会遇到瓶颈.

These are fundamental to creativity,

這些是創新的基礎,

things like a platform for international collaboration;

那些如國際合作平臺的途徑;

a date certain, which is a forcing mechanism;

壹個準確日期是驅使它的機制;

and a positive vision that inspires action.

壹個積極的設想可以啟發行動.

It would take us to 2045.

它可能會帶我們來到2045年.

Now, 2045 happens to be the 100th anniversary

那壹年恰好是核武器

of the birth of nuclear weapons in the New Mexico desert.

在新墨西哥沙漠誕辰的100周年.

But it's also an important date for another reason.

而對於另壹個原因這也是壹個重要的日期.

It's predicted to be the advent of the singularity,

是被預測為奇點出現的時刻,

a new moment in human development,

壹個在人類發展史中新篇章,

where the lines between artificial intelligence and human intelligence blur,

到了那個時候人工智能和人類智慧的界限將變得模糊,

where computing and consciousness become almost indistinguishable

計算機和自我意識變得很難區分

and advanced technologies help us solve the 21st century's greatest problems:

先進的技術幫助我們解決了21世紀最嚴重的問題:

hunger, energy, poverty,

飢餓, 能源, 貧窮,

ushering in an era of abundance.

引領到一個富饒的時代.

And we all get to go to space

我們都到了太空

on our way to becoming a multi-planetary species.

在變成多星球居住的物種的道路上前行.

Now, the people who really believe this vision are the first to say

現在, 那些真的相信這些想象的人是第一個說出來的

they don't yet know precisely how we're going to get there.

他們仍不知道到底如何實現它們.

But the values behind their vision

但是在這些想象背後的價值

and the willingness to ask "How might we?"

和自發性的問“我們怎樣做？”

have inspired a generation of innovators.

已經啟發了壹代科學家們.

They're working backward from the outcomes they want,

他們在落後的條件下工作,

using the creative problem-solving methods of collaborative design.

運用有創意的共同協同的問題解抉方法.

They're busting through obstacles.

他們在困難中突破自我.

They're redefining what we all consider possible.

他們重新定義了我們考慮的所有可能.

But here's the thing:

但是這裏有壹件事:

that vision of abundance isn't compatible

那個關於富饒的設想與這個

with a world that still relies on a 20th-century nuclear doctrine

仍舊依賴於核信條的世界不兼容

called "mutually assured destruction."

那壹信條被叫做“同歸於盡.”

It has to be about building the foundations for the 22nd century.

它是為22世紀建立基礎的必要信條.

It has to be about strategies for mutually assured prosperity

他是關於為了共同繁榮的策略

or, at the very least, mutually assured survival.

或者, 至少也是共同生存.

Now, every day, I get to meet people who are real pioneers

如今, 每天我都會認識些在核危機領域

in the field of nuclear threats.

真正的開拓者.

As you can see, many of them are young women,

正如你們看到的, 他們許多人都是年輕女性,

and they're doing fiercely interesting stuff,

她們正在做極其有趣的事情,

like Mareena Robinson Snowden here, who is developing new ways,

就像馬奈娜魯濱孫斯諾登這樣, 開發一些新方法,

better ways, to detect nuclear warheads,

更好的方法, 來探測到核彈頭,

which will help us overcome a critical hurdle

它將幫助我們克服

to international disarmament.

國際性解除武裝的嚴重阻礙.

Or Melissa Hanham, who is using satellite imaging

或者像麥麗莎·漢漢姆那樣用衛星繪圖

to make sense of what's going on around far-flung nuclear sites.

使廣布的核據點中發生的事情變得更清晰.

Or we have Beatrice Fihn in Europe,

或者我們有在歐洲的碧翠斯·费恩,

who has been campaigning to make nuclear weapons illegal

她已經在國際法院

in international courts of law,

發起了使核武器非法化的運動,

and just won a big victory at the UN last week.

而且剛剛上周在聯合國大會贏得了大的勝利.

(Applause)

（掌聲）

And yet,

可是,

and yet,

可是,

with all of our talk in this culture about moon shots,

在這個談論月球發射的文化下,

too few members of Generation Possible and those of us who mentor them

在壹可能的壹代人中只有極少數人和我們這些引導他們的人

are taking on nuclear weapons.

在談論核武器.

It's as if there's a taboo.

這就像壹個禁忌.

But I remember something Kennedy said that has really stuck with me,

但是肯尼迪說過的一段話讓我銘記於心,

and that is something to the effect

那句話很有影響力

that humans can be as big as the solutions

他說人類在面對所有自己制造出來的問題時

to all the problems we've created.

可以像方法壹樣強大.

No problem of human destiny, he said,

人類命運中的問題沒有, 他說,

is beyond human beings.

是超越人類本身的.

I believe that.

我也堅信這句話.

And I bet a lot of you here believe that, too.

我也敢打賭妳們很多人也相信它.

And I know Generation Possible believes it.

我也認為可能的壹代人相信它.

So it's time to commit to a date.

所以是該訂下規定期限的時刻了.

Let's end the nuclear weapons chapter

讓我們結束核武器這一篇章

on the 100th anniversary of its inception.

在它誕生的100週年的時候.

After all, by 2045, we will have held billions of people hostage

畢竟，在2045年的左右在核毁灭的威胁下

to the threat of nuclear annihilation.

我們將有幾十億人作為人質.

Surely, 100 years will have been enough.

無疑, 壹百年時間已經足夠了.

Surely, a century of economic development

無疑, 壹個世紀的經濟發展

and the development of military strategy

和军事策略的发展

will have given us better ways to manage global conflict.

將要給我們更好的方法來解決國際爭端.

Surely, if ever there was a global moon shot worth supporting,

無疑, 如果有壹個全球性的登月計劃值得協助,

this is it.

這就是那個時刻.