version of the Market Plus segment.

版的市場加板塊。

Joining me now is Walt Hackney and Elaine Kub.

現在和我一起的是沃特・哈克尼和伊萊恩・庫巴。

Guys, welcome back.

夥計們，歡迎回來。

Thank you, thank you, Mike.

謝謝你，謝謝你，邁克。

Pearson: Now, Walt, our first question goes to you

皮爾森現在, Walt, 我們的第一個問題是關於你的

and it is an issue that I'm sure you're very

而這是一個問題，我'確信你'非常。

familiar with.

熟悉的。

This is from Lee Reichmuth in Nebraska from Twitter.

這是內布拉斯加的李-賴克穆斯從Twitter上發來的。

Lee wants to know, what does the cattle industry

李先生想知道，牛業是什麼？

need to do at this point because anyone unhedged

在這一點上需要做的，因為任何人都可以解套

for the last two years is close to bankruptcy?

近兩年來已接近破產？

What can producers, what should producers be doing

生產者能做什麼，生產者應該做什麼

from today going forward to stave off bankruptcy

釜底抽薪

for these independent producers?

對於這些獨立製片人來說？

Hackney: Many of them cannot and bankruptcy is

哈克尼：他們中的許多人不能和破產是。

going to be a way of life as we approach the deep

將成為一種生活方式，因為我們接近深層的

fall of this year.

今年秋天。

There's a syndrome out there right now among

有一個綜合症，現在有之間的

cattle feeders that the feeder cattle, if you

飼養牛的飼養員，如果你

will, are unhedgeable, there's nothing they can

會，都是無法對沖的，他們沒有什麼可以。

do, they're paralyzed and they are a victim of the

做，他們'麻痺大意，他們是一個受害者。

marketing process that's going to take them into

營銷過程中，'要把他們帶入。

bankruptcy.

破產。

And I know how that sounds but it is a basic fact

我知道這聽起來如何，但這是一個基本事實。

that there's too often these producers have an

有'的太多了，這些生產商有一個

opportunity to get away from that attitude but

擺脫這種態度的機會，但

they've got to go now finally to a professional

他們已經得到了現在終於去一個專業的

trader that can give them the proper techniques to

交易者，可以給他們適當的技術，以

get their hedging program done.

把他們的對沖計劃做好。

I've got a customer in Saginaw, Texas and he's a

我有一個客戶在德克薩斯州的薩金諾，他是一個。

huge operator, he is so big that you would think

巨大的運營商，他是如此之大，你會認為。

that he cannot, his exposure has got to be

他不能這樣做，他的曝光率必須是。

phenomenal in regard to his cash flow needs and

在他的現金流需求方面是驚人的，並且

his risk protection.

他的風險保護。

He called me last night and we had a long visit.

他昨晚給我打電話，我們進行了長時間的訪問。

Every hoof of cattle he buys, which is annually

他買的每一隻牛蹄，每年都是

about 35,000, maybe 40,000 head of cattle a year,

每年大約有35000，也許40000頭牛。

every hoof of cattle he buys he hedges and is

他買來的每一隻牛的蹄子都被他拴住了，而且還被他用繩子拴住了。

easily done and he hooks a $60 a head tag to their

很容易就完成了，他把60元一個的人頭標籤掛到他們的身上。

tail and quits.

尾隨和退出。

He doesn't go for the big money, he's not going for

他不為大錢而去，他也不為。

the gold ring off the carousel.

金戒指從旋轉木馬上取下來。

He's going for $60 a head and that's all he wants to

他'要以60美元一個人的價格，這就是他想要的一切

make on them.

使他們身上。

He made it when the other cattle feeders were losing

他在其他養牛戶虧損的情況下做到了。

$400.

$400.

He made it last year when they were losing $400 to

他去年就做到了，當時他們輸了400塊錢給。

$500.

$500.

This year they're losing anywhere from not quite

今年他們失去了從不完全

break even to a couple hundred bucks a head.

盈虧平衡到幾百塊錢一頭。

He has made money all the way through this.

他一路走來都賺了不少錢。

And there he is, hedgeability of these

他就在那裡，這些人的對沖性

feeder cattle if they'll take advantage of a

飼養牛，如果他們'將利用一個。

professional marketer in the commodity end of it.

商品端的專業營銷人員。

Pearson: Elaine?

皮爾森。Elaine?

Kub: I'll weigh in on this because there may be some

庫巴：我'會權衡一下，因為可能有一些。

scenarios where the size of the contract it might

在這種情況下，合同的規模可能會受到影響。

be easier to do it if you're at a large scale,

是比較容易做到的，如果你'在大規模。

in some cases, than it is at a small scale, but in

在某些情況下，比在小規模的情況下，但在。

that case I would suggest that people go talk to

在這種情況下，我建議大家去和...

their crop insurance agent about the livestock risk,

他們的作物保險代理人對牲畜風險的看法。

the LRP, there's livestock crop insurance, it's not

的LRP，有牲畜作物保險，它'不

really crop insurance but it is a risk protection.

真正的農作物保險，但它是一種風險保障。

It is effectively a put of any size.

它有效地是任一大小的放。

And the details of it, you should speak to your

而其中的細節，你應該跟你的。

agent, but I just wanted to point that out that it

代理，但我只是想指出這一點，它

can be done at any size.

可以做任何規模。

Pearson: It is out there at any size operation and

培生。它是在那裡在任何規模的操作和

it's effectively a subsidized put.

它'有效地補貼放。

That's what it is.

這就是它。

Hackney: Elaine, since this is part of your

哈克尼：伊萊恩，既然這是你的一部分。

business, do you understand, which I do

生意，你明白嗎，我明白

not, but do you understand what Pete Bond was telling

不明白，但你明白皮特-邦德在說什麼嗎？

me in regard to his techniques of putting

在他的技術方面，我把

these -- he's got a daughter your age and she

這些... 他有一個和你一樣大的女兒，她...

does 100% of that by herself in his business.

在他的業務中，自己100%的做。

Kub: Sounds like you guys need to get a new analyst

庫巴聽起來你們需要找一個新的分析師了

on here, yeah.

在這裡，是的。

Hackney: She has designed a hedge program that is

哈克尼：她設計了一個對沖方案，是。

phenomenal and that's what they use and it's unlike,

現象，這'就是他們使用的，它'不像。

he'll explain it to me every time I talk to him

他每次跟我說話都會給我解釋的

and when we get done I couldn't repeat him.

而當我們完成後，我不能重複他&#39；。

Do you see the potential of a hedge in cattle

你看到了牛的套牢潛力嗎？

through the techniques you're aware of?

通過技術你'知道嗎？

Kub: Sure.

庫巴：當然。

You would lock in your selling price through a

你會通過以下方式鎖定你的售價

put or a short futures that can be done.

放或做空期貨，可以做。

And in the cattle industry, and I don't know

而在養牛業，我不知道'。

exactly what your friend is doing in Texas, but if

正是你的朋友在德克薩斯做什麼，但如果...

he's feeding in that instance he has also got

他的餵養在這種情況下，他也得到了。

to lock in his input costs, which is primarily

以鎖定他的投入成本，這主要是指

feed, that's the easy part especially now when corn

飼料，這是很容易的部分，特別是現在當玉米。

is $3.

是3美元。

This is a no brainer.

這是一個不折不扣的問題。

Pearson: How far ahead are you locking in feed costs

皮爾森：你提前多久鎖定飼料成本？

here at $3 cash corn?

在這裡，3元現金玉米？

Kub: Twelve months or more.

庫巴。12個月以上

You look to December 2017, those futures are $3.90 so

你看2017年12月，那些期貨都是3.9元，所以。

that is an opportunity for everybody to look at this

這是一個機會，讓每個人都能看到這一點

and say, if I'm going to be producing corn in 2017

並說，如果我'2017年要生產玉米。

at $3.90 that doesn't sound so bad and if I need

在3.90美元，這並不'聽起來很糟糕，如果我需要。

to be feeding cattle for the next year and I can

明年將喂牛，我可以

buy it now for $3, that sounds pretty darn good.

現在買它3美元， 這聽起來相當不錯。

So there's opportunities here.

所以這裡有'的機會。

Pearson: I didn't mean to interrupt.

皮爾森。我不是故意要打斷你。

He's locking in inputs, locking in his selling

他'的鎖定投入，鎖定他的賣點。

price, but there have been times over this past year

價，但在過去的一年裡，有幾次

with the incredible volatility where there is

與不可思議的波動性，其中有

no place you can hedge and find a $60 profit, but

沒有地方你可以對沖和找到60美元的利潤，但。

there are other options you could use.

還有其他的選擇，你可以使用。

Kub: Well, and what I'm suspecting he's doing or

庫巴我懷疑他的所作所為

his daughter is doing is that, you're right, not

他的女兒正在做的是，你'正確的，不是

every day you can go to the market and find your

每天你都可以去市場上找到你的。

$60 but the days that you can find it he's not

60美元，但天，你可以找到它，他&#39；不

getting greedy and waiting for $75, he's locking it

越來越貪婪，並等待75美元，他'鎖定它的

in.

在：

Hackney: He catalogues an inventory of cattle, as

哈克尼：他編列了一份牛的目錄，作為。

you suggest, cannot be worked into that program

你的建議，不能在該程序中工作

and as that market moves he takes portions or all

當市場發生變化時，他就會拿走一部分或全部。

of those catalogue inventory and he puts them

這些目錄的庫存，他把他們

into that $60 a head program.

進入那60美元一個人的計劃。

That's what he does.

這就是他的工作。

Kub: That would be a minimum size.

庫巴這將是一個最小的尺寸。

Hackney: Possibly, I'm sorry I brought that into

哈克尼：有可能，我'對不起，我把這一點帶到了。

your program here, Mike.

你的程序在這裡，邁克。

Pearson: That's helpful news for a lot of us.

培生。這對我們很多人來說都是有用的消息。

Hackney: I get an incessant parade of cattle

哈克尼：我得到了一個不斷的牛群的遊行。

feeders calling me asking me how they can, if there

餵養者打電話給我，問我他們怎麼能，如果有的話。

is a hedge potential.

是一種對沖潛力。

I'm not smart enough in the marketing in regard to

我在營銷方面不夠聰明，在關於

commodity to be able to give them any advice.

商品，以便能夠給他們任何建議。

Kub: Well and like you say, Mike, some days

庫巴就像你說的，邁克，有些時候... ...

there's not and you wouldn't make money.

有'的不是，你不會'賺錢。

Pearson: Well now, Elaine, next question to you and

皮爾森。好了，現在，伊萊恩，下一個問題給你和。

this one you kind of talked about on the show.

這個你在節目中談到的那種。

This is from Ben on Twitter in Jesup, Iowa.

這是本在愛荷華州傑蘇普的推特上發來的。

He wants to know, where do you see the low in these

他想知道，你在哪裡看到了這些低級的

markets?

市場？

Kub: Well, I'm on Twitter so I saw Ben's question in

庫巴。我在推特上看到了Ben的問題。

advance and I knew I was kind of spoiling it in the

我知道我是一種破壞了它在

show.

顯示。

And to be honest the numbers that are the dates

而說實話，這些數字是日期

that I said in the show are just me looking at a

我在節目中說的那些話，都是我在看一個...

chart.

圖：

What he's referring to is earlier in the summer I

他所說的是在夏天早些時候我

did this statistical analysis of what date of

做了這個統計分析，什麼日期的

the year would you be most likely to see a corn

你最有可能看到玉米的年份？

market high and it was June 18th and that worked

市場的最高點，這是6月18日，這工作。

out great this year which was fantastically lucky

今年大出風頭，這是非常幸運的

and I feel fantastic.

我感覺棒極了。

And I haven't done the full statistics about what

而我還沒有做完整的統計，關於什麼是

date of the year would you be most likely to see a

你最有可能在每年的哪一天看到一個

low.

低。

But in these normally abundant years it looks

但在這些通常豐富的年份，它看起來

like there have been some lows in very late August

就像有一些低點 在非常八月下旬。

and then the crop size gets trimmed and then that

然後裁剪尺寸被修剪，然後該

was the low, which that may very well be what

是低，這很可能是什麼。

happened this year.

發生在今年。

And some years there's kind of a low in November

而有些年份的11月有種谷底的感覺

if perhaps the crop gets bigger and bigger through

如果可能是越長越大的作物通過

harvest, which is not the case this year.

收，而今年的情況並非如此。

Pearson: Right, but we're seeing a divergence where

皮爾森。但我們看到了一個分歧的地方

corn that August low, we hit that $3.18 or $3.17

玉米8月的低點，我們打了3.18美元或3.17美元。

and change and the crop gets smaller.

和變化，作物變小。

Beans, we did hit a low or kind of a low in August,

豆子，我們在8月份確實遇到了一個谷底或者說是一種谷底。

now the crop has grown so do you expect that

行將就木

November low or are we going to grow this bean

11月谷底還是要種這個豆子的

crop all the way through January?

一直到1月的作物?

Kub: I think beans are going to continue to have

庫巴：我認為豆類會繼續有

some good news with continued buying.

一些好消息與繼續買入。

There's going to be commercial business

有&39;的將會是商業業務。

actually going in there and buying those beans on

實際上，在那裡去 併購買這些豆上

the futures.

的期貨。

Anyway, so I'm not too worried about beans.

反正，所以我'不怎麼擔心豆子。

Pearson: Okay.

皮爾森。好的。

But you're not yet reowning?

但你'還沒有重新擁有？

Kub: Oh no, I'm not - Pearson: If I'm selling

庫巴。哦，不，我不是皮爾森。如果我在賣

cash off the combine I just let those sales go.

現金關閉聯合收割機我只是讓這些銷售去。

Kub: Yeah.

庫巴是的，我知道

Well, I haven't followed my own advice in that

好吧，我還沒有遵循我自己的建議在那

matter but I'm just saying I'm not real optimistic,

事，但我'只是說我'不是真正的樂觀。

but I'm not real pessimistic.

但我'不真正悲觀。

I'm neutral.

我是中立的。

$9.60 is I think maybe the best we can expect but I

9.60美元是我想也許是我們能期望的最好的，但我。

haven't sold my beans.

還沒有賣掉我的豆子。

Pearson: Alright.

皮爾森。好吧。

Put our money where our mouth is.

把我們的錢放在我們的嘴裡。

Hackney: Mike, I can't help but sit here and

哈克尼：邁克，我不能不坐在這裡，但。

think if I'm a producer and one of the fans of

想想看，如果我是一個製片人和一個球迷的

Iowa Public TV and Market to Market how valuable

愛華公共電視和市場對市場的價值有多大？

this conversation is to me.

這次談話對我來說。

I'm learning more sitting here than I came to the

我坐在這裡學到了更多的東西，比我來了。

party with.

黨與。

I am.

我就是

Kub: I think Walt is being sarcastic.

庫巴：我覺得華特是在諷刺我。

I just said, I don't know, sell your beans, maybe,

我只是說，我不&#39；不知道，賣你的豆子，也許。

maybe not, I don't know.

也許不是，我不知道。

Pearson: You haven't though.

皮爾森。你沒有'雖然。

Kub: I have not.

庫巴：我沒有。

Pearson: So Elaine is holding her beans, that's

皮爾森。所以Elaine拿著她的豆子，那是... ...

her market advice for everybody.

她給大家的市場建議。

Kub: But I'm not holding them for very long.

庫巴。但我不會拿著它們太久的

I've paid 5 cents for this month of storage but I'm

我為這個月的存儲支付了5分錢，但我'm。

not doing that for very long.

不這樣做，很長一段時間。

Pearson: So harvest is done in your part of the

皮爾森。所以收割是在你們那裡完成的

world?

岍?

Kub: In my acres it is.

庫巴：在我的畝產裡是這樣的。

Hackney: On the beans.

哈克尼：在豆子上。

Pearson: On the beans.

皮爾森。在豆子上。

Corn in progress?

玉米在進行中？

Kub: Corn, nationwide we are going to hit the

庫巴。玉米，在全國範圍內，我們要打的是

halfway mark right about now.

半途而廢，現在。

More or less we're at halfway.

多多少少我們'在半路上。

Pearson: Okay, in corn harvest.

皮爾森。好吧，在玉米收穫時。

Final question, and this is a big one.

最後一個問題，這是個大問題。

We're delving into all sorts of issues with this

我們正在深入研究這個問題的各種問題。

question was emailed to us.

問題通過電子郵件發給了我們。

We invite you to email us questions too.

我們邀請您也給我們發郵件提問。

MarkettoMarket@iptv.org I think is our email.

[email protected] 我想是我們的郵箱。

This one is from Brian.

這個是布萊恩送的。

He wants to know, what do we have to do to make the

他想知道，我們要怎麼做才能讓。

consumer, our legislative bodies and the feds

消費者、我們的立法機構和聯邦政府

understand the dire circumstances our

知難而退

independent beef producers are in?

獨立牛肉生產商在?

What if anything do we have to do?

如果我們有什麼要做的？

Do we need to make the consumer or the feds

我們需要讓消費者或聯邦調查局的人。

understand the potential road to bankruptcy for a

理解破產的潛在途徑

lot of cattle feeders in particular?

特別是很多喂牛的人？

Hackney: Very briefly in my case I don't think that

哈克尼：很簡單，在我的情況下，我不'認為。

it's necessary to have a formal effort to educate

有必要進行正式的教育工作。

the consumer in regard to using the agricultural

消費者在使用農用化學品方面的權利

products.

產品。

They've got to eat and they've got to be able to

他們必須吃東西，他們必須能夠... ...

pay the price.

付出代價。

If you're going to the dance you pay for the

如果你要去跳舞，你就得花錢買。

fiddler.

提琴手。

And that is what they've got to do.

而這也是他們'要做的。

What I'm trying to say is, we have every kind of an

我想說的是，我們有每一種類型的一個。

educational process in effect as we speak that

在我們發言的時候，教育過程正在實施

will cause your friend there on the email to do