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  • To appreciate why market prices

  • are essential to human well-being,

  • consider what a fix we would be in without them.

  • Suppose you were the commissar of railroads in the old Soviet Union.

  • Markets and prices have been banished.

  • You and your comrades.

  • Passionate communists all.

  • Now, directly plan how to use available resources.

  • You want a railroad from city A to city B, but

  • between the cities is a mountain range.

  • Suppose somehow you know that the railroad once built.

  • Will serve the nation equally well.

  • Whether it goes through the mountains or around.

  • If you build through the mountains, you'll use much less steel for the tracks.

  • Because that route is shorter.

  • But you'll use a great deal of engineering to design the trestles and

  • tunnels needed to cross the rough terrain.

  • That matters because engineering is also needed to design irrigation systems,

  • mines, harbor installations and other structures.

  • And you don't want to tie up engineering on your railroad

  • if it would be more valuable designing those other structures instead.

  • You can save engineering for other projects.

  • If you build around the mountains on level ground.

  • But that way you'll use much more steel rail to go the longer distance and

  • steel is also needed for other purposes.

  • For vehicles, girders, ships, pots and pans and thousands of other things.

  • Which route should you choose for the good of the nation?

  • To answer, you would need to determine which bundle of resources

  • is less urgently needed for other purposes.

  • The large amount of engineering and small amount of steel for

  • the route through the mountains, where the small amount of engineering and

  • large amount of steel for the roundabout route.

  • But how could you find out the urgency of need for engineering and

  • steel in other uses?

  • Just one way engineering is used is to build irrigation systems.

  • To assess the importance of a particular irrigation system, you would need to know

  • what the farmers know about how irrigation would increase the yield of their fields.

  • And to know the value of that increased yield, you'd need to know what grocers

  • know about their customers eagerness for that produce.

  • That in turn depends on what customers know about the better meals they could fix

  • with that produce.

  • How would you find all this out?

  • Just one way to use steel is to build new trucks.

  • To assess the importance of a particular new truck, you would need to know what

  • the trucker knows about the capacity of his current truck, and how much more

  • quickly he could make the deliveries his customers want with a new bigger truck.

  • To know the importance of those deliveries, you would need to know what

  • his customers know about the value of getting goods delivered.

  • That in turn depends on what still others know about the uses of those goods

  • at their destinations.

  • To reason about where to route the railroad,

  • you need this kind of information for all possible uses of engineering and steel.

  • That's a massive amount of knowledge, held by millions of people throughout society.

  • How might you get it?

  • You might try surveys, but think how many people you would need to survey.

  • All those who prepare meals with produce, and

  • all those who take delivery by truck for starters.

  • The numbers would be staggering.

  • And often people don't even know what they prefer until they face an actual choice.

  • So they might not be able to answer survey questions accurately.

  • Even if they could, by the time the surveys were returned and

  • processed, much of the information would be out of date.

  • And even if you could get complete and timely information

  • about what everyone knows, that's relevant to every use of steel in engineering,

  • you would still need to deduce from it where to build the railroad.

  • How would you begin to make sense of that mountain of data?

  • In the words of Ludwig von Mises, you would be groping in the dark.

  • You would face what is known as the knowledge problem of central planning.

  • The reason why comprehensive socialism inevitably fails.

  • Central planners cannot get the knowledge they need in order to plan effectively.

  • You, commissar, simply cannot know on what projects scarce resources should be used

  • for the good of the nation.

  • But now change the thought experiment.

  • Imagine that somewhere in the market economy part of the world,

  • you are the chief operating officer of a railroad company.

  • You work not for the good of the nation, but to generate profits for your firm.

  • You want to run a railroad line from city C to city D.

  • Again, there's a mountain range between them.

  • Now, how do you decide on the route?

  • You choose what's cheapest.

  • You would calculate the total cost of each route for each one,

  • multiplying the amount of engineering required by the price of engineering, and

  • adding that to the amount of steel required times the price of steel.

  • Then, you would choose whichever cost your company less.

  • You might give no thought at all to the good of the nation or society as a whole.

  • But, and here's the marvel, by choosing the route that is cheapest for

  • your company you would thereby choose the route that's best for society.

  • You would use the bundle of resources that's least urgently needed for

  • other purposes.

  • Why?

  • Because those market prices you calculate with reflects the urgency of need for

  • engineering and steel in all their alternative uses.

  • For example, suppose customers wanting to taste your meals, would buy better,

  • more expensive produce, if it were on the shelf of their local grocery.

  • In effect, they're offering grocers more for produce.

  • So the grocers will offer farmers more for produce.

  • So the farmers who feels would be sufficiently improved by irrigation

  • will offer more for irrigation systems.

  • And those who build irrigation systems will offer engineers more to design them.

  • Now that designing irrigation systems pays engineers better,

  • people who want to hire engineers for other projects, such as railroads,

  • will have to offer them at least as much to make it worth their while.

  • The higher price tells everyone who uses engineering that it's become, for

  • some reason, more valuable so maybe they should use less.

  • In this way, the market prices of resources represent the particular

  • knowledge and preferences of millions of people who directly or

  • indirectly use those resources.

  • And the prices communicate that knowledge and

  • those preferences to everyone interested.

  • Only with market prices to communicate this vast amount of human knowledge to us.

  • Can we calculate the least costly ways of producing the things we want,

  • coordinator activities with the activities of others, use resources where society

  • values the most, and thereby satisfy as many human wants as possible?

To appreciate why market prices

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如果沒有價格呢?鐵路思想實驗--學習自由的方法 (What If There Were No Prices? Railroad Thought Experiment - Learn Liberty)

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