你錯過了什麼？Chipotle的翻身挑戰，石油的反彈和更多 (08/19/16) (What'd You Miss? Chipotle's Turnaround Challenge, Oil's Rebound & More (08/19/16))

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I AM SCARLET FU.
JOE: I AM JOE WEISENTHAL.
"WHAT'D YOU MISS?"
OLIVER.
♪
JANET YELLEN'S SHARES
HER VIEW ON WHERE POLICY IS
HEADED.
WE HAVE THE CHARTS YOU CAN'T
MISS.
DOES IT JUST NEED TO
GROW UP?
SLIVER: RAPID DEMOGRAPHIC
AROUND THE WORLD, WE WILL FIND
OUT WHAT IT HAS TO SAY.
SCARLET: U.S. STOCKS DRIFTING
LOWER.
IT WAS A MODEST MOVE.
A STAT THAT TELLS YOU
WHAT HAPPENED.
IS IN ITS 30TH DAY
WITHOUT A ONE PERCENT OF MOVE IN
EITHER DIRECTION ON.
THAT IS A ONE-WEEK, THANK YOU.
A VERY QUIET WEEK.
THOSE COULD BE ONE DAY MOVES.
IS VERY LITTLE
HAPPENING IN THE MARKET.
GREEN.DAQ TURNING
STOCKS WITH THE SECOND
WEEKLY LOSS SINCE JUNE.
SOME OF THE THINGS WE HAVE BEEN
TALKING ABOUT CONTINUE.
BASIS POINT MOVE
AND SEMICONDUCTORS, LED BY A
APPLIED MATERIALS AND MICRON.
STOCKS,S AND TELECOM
THE ONLY REAL GROUP MOVING HERE,
AND THEY ARE MOVING DOWNWARD.
STOCK BUBBLEVALUE
IS STARTING TO LET SOME AIR AND
OUT.
ONE OF THE BIG SECTORS THAT
LOST WERE YIELD SENSITIVE AREAS.
HERE IS A ONE-MONTH CHART OF THE
U.S. 10 YEAR YIELD.
U.S. 10 YEAR YIELDS CLOSING OUT
TODAY AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE
AUGUST.
THELET: I AM FOCUSING ON
POUND SHARE.
-POUND. YUAN
TO KEEP INDEADLINE
MIND.
GERMANY AND FRANCE ARE PREPARING
FOR ELECTIONS.
ALSO, OIL, A ONE-MONTH
CHART OF OIL, EARLY AUGUST, BEAR
MARKET, TICKING HIGHER TODAY.
AUGUST, BACK FOR
IN A BULL MARKET, SO
UNIMPRESSIVE RECOVERY.
SCARLET: A BULL MARKET WITHIN
THE BEAR MARKET.
JOE: THAT'S RIGHT.
LET'S TAKE A DEEP DIVE
INTO THE BLOOMBERG.
I'M LOOKING AT ONE OF THE
STORIES WE'RE LOOKING AT,
VIACOM.
THE CEO FELL VICTIM TO SHERRY
REDSTONE AND HER FATHER.
THEY ARE NOW LAYING THE
GROUNDWORK FOR VIACOM, THE BLUE
, AND CBS, THE WHITE LINE,
TO REUNITE.
THE VALUATION GAP IS CLOSING.
THE SPREAD NARROWED AS MUCH AS
57% SINCE MARCH.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW THIS HAPPENS AND WHAT SHAPES
UP NEXT BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN
SO MUCH DRAMA THERE.
JOE: SO MUCH DRAMA.
I AM LOOKING AT EMERGING MARKETS
STOCKS.
AT THE A 10 YEAR LOOK
EMERGING MARKET ETF.
THE QUESTION IS ARE WE AT A
BOTTOM.
IS IT A DURABLE TURNAROUND OR
NOT?
SOME OF THESE OTHER LINES ARE
THE 20 WEEK AND 50 WEEK MOVING
AVERAGES.
TO BREAKING ABOVE
THE 50 WEEK MOVING AVERAGE.
IT HASN'T HAPPENED YET.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW TIMES WHEN
IT TRIED TO BREAK OUT ON THE
RANGE, SO TRIED TO KEEP, ON
THAT, MAYBE THAT IS THEY SIGN OF
A DURABLE BOUNCEBACK.
BOUNDS ISD
ON THE WAY DOWN.
I'M LOOKING AT VOLUME.
IX GROUPS AND NEW EXCHANGE
STARTED TRADING.
YOU ARE SEEING THE TREND
WHERE THERE IS MORE AND MORE
VOLUME HAPPENING OFF EXCHANGES.
THE MARKET STRUCTURE FOR TRADING
HAS CHANGED SO MUCH, BECOMING
MORE DYNAMIC.
THE RED LINE IS OFF EXCHANGE,
39%.
THIS IS A ROLLING 30 DAY
AVERAGE.
MORE TRADESMORE AND
HAPPENING OFF YOUR MAIN
EXCHANGES.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
OTHERAT SPACE EVOLVES AND
TRADING PLATFORMS COME TO
MARKET.
WEEK, THE HUGE
JACKSON HOLE EVENT.
HEAR FROM BRILLIANT
MINDS IN THE WORLD OF MONETARY
POLICY.
WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING AT THESE
DAYS?
EVERYONE WANTS TO HEAR WHEN
THE NEXT RATE HIKE WILL BE.
DOES SAY, PEOPLE
WILL TAKE CLUES FROM.
THE OTHER BIG THING IS THE TOPIC
, DESIGNINGERENCE
RESILIENT POLICY FRAMEWORKS FOR
THE FUTURE.
BIGGER EXISTENTIAL ISSUES
ABOUT THE FUTURE OF CENTRAL
BANKING.
SITUATIONA PERMANENT
WHERE THEY WILL BE USING BALANCE
SHEETS AND THAT SORT OF THING
GOING FORWARD.
LET'S GET THE
SHORT-TERM CHATTER OUT OF THE
WAY.
SHOWS THECHART THAT
PROBABILITY OF A SEPTEMBER RATE
INCREASE.
THAT IS THE WHITE LINE.
WE ARE LOOKING AT 14%.
FOR DECEMBER, 30% RIGHT NOW.
WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD THAT
JANET YELLEN DOES NOT GIVE US
ANY INDICATION?
>> I THINK THAT IS FAIRLY
LIKELY.
IT DEPENDS.
, SHEE REALLY WANTS TO HIKE
WAS AN SIGNALS.
OTHERWISE, SHE WANT.
GIVEN WHERE MARKETS ARE AND THE
GET, DOES NOT SEEM LIKE
THEY ARE IN A BIG HURRY.
OLIVER: I THINK THE STORY OF THE
WEEK WAS INFLATION.
ANY CHANCE THEY WILL BE
DISCUSSING WHERE AND HOW TO
TARGET INFLATION?
WHAT HE WROTE ABOUT
INFLATION TARGETING AND RAISING
THE INFLATION TARGET GETS TO THE
HEART OF THIS TOPIC AT JACKSON
HOLE, WHICH IS WE NEED TO THINK
ABOUT THINGS OTHER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN DOING AND WHAT WE ARE
DOING.
THE IDEAS HE PUT FORWARD,
POTENTIALLY RAISING THE
INFLATION TARGET, MOVE THE
NOMINAL GDP TARGETING, WE MAY
NOT GET MUCH ON THAT STUFF, BUT
THAT IS THE BACKGROUND FOR WHAT
THEY ARE GOING TO BE DISCUSSING.
THE I HAVE A CHART ON
BLOOMBERG.
WHAT IS GOING ON HERE?
MATT: THIS IS RELATED TO
LONGFORM AND SHORT-TERM ISSUES.
R IS RISING MORE
THAN ONE MONTH.
THE WHITE LINE IS THE COMPONENT
IS ABOUTNCREASE THAT
FED EXPECTATIONS.
THAT HAS NOT REALLY MOVED MUCH.
THANKS ARE HAVING A HARDER TIME
FINDING DOLLAR FUNDING BECAUSE
AND OTHERORY REFORM
SOURCES OF DOLLAR FUNDING ARE
DRYING UP, LIKE PETRODOLLARS.
THIS GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR BANKS GETTING
KIND OF THE THAT IS
PURPOSE OF A RATE HIKE, SO MAYBE
THAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR ONE.
NOT GOING TO TRY AND
COMMENT ON THIS, BUT I WANT TO
TELL YOU WHY WE ARE LOOKING AT
THIS, PRICE EXPECTATIONS BY
GENDER.
MATT: THESE ARE INFLATION
EXPECTATIONS, IMPORTANT TO THE
FED.
THIS IS WHAT KEEPS THEM UP AT
NIGHT.
FOR WOMEN, INFLATION
EXPECTATIONS ARE AT A RECORD
LOW.
FOR MEN, THEY ARE JUST SHY OF A
, BUT YOU CAN SEE HOW
TENUOUS THE SITUATION IS.
THEY HAVE PLUNGED OVER THE LAST
FEW MONTHS, AND THAT IS AN
INTERESTING WAY TO LOOK AT IT.
THINK I EVER
REALIZED BEFORE THAT THEY WERE
BROKEN DOWN BY THAT WAY, AGE,
GENDER, EDUCATION, AND PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD THEY ARE
RECORD LOWS.AR
THIS IS WHY THE FED IS BEING
VERY CAREFUL RIGHT NOW.
THEYIS NOT SOMETHING WHERE
WANT TO GET INTO HIKING RATES
AND HAVE THAT GO FURTHER.
THAT'S ONE OF THE
THINGS PEOPLE POINT TO WHEN THEY
SAY THE U.S. ECONOMY IS NOT A
STRONG AT SOME OF THE DATA
SUGGEST.
IF YOU LOOK AT GDP SINCE THE END
OF 2000 SEVEN, THE U.S. GREW
FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE
DEVELOPED MARKETS, BUT THE U.S.
POPULATION GREW FASTER, SO IT
GOES THE ECONOMY SHOULD GROW
FASTER.
WHAT MATTERS IS LOOKING AT PER
CAPITA GDP.
THE U.S. IS NOT THAT MUCH
FURTHER AHEAD.
INSTANCE, WHICH IS
NOT ON THIS CHART IS GROWING
FASTER THAN THE U.S..
THE U.S. IS BLUE AND THAT
EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ARE PURPLE.
MATT: IT HIGHLIGHTS HOW THE
CENTRAL BANKS ARE DEALING WITH
THE SAME ISSUE NOW BEING SO
CLOSE TO ZERO AND HAVING TO COME
UP WITH NEW WAYS TO POTENTIALLY
STIMULATE, AND THOSE INFLATION
EXPECTATIONS ARE THE MOST DOVISH
CHART OUT THERE THAT YOU CAN
FIND.
THAT IS WEIGHING ON THEIR MINDS
RIGHT NOW.
EVERYONE CLOSE TO ZERO,
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS FALLING,
THAT'S NOT A SITUATION WHERE YOU
WANT TO GET AHEAD OF YOURSELF
AND RAISE RATES.
JOE: SHOULD BE A FASCINATING
WEEK NEXT WEEK.
MATT BOESLER, THANK YOU VERY
MUCH.
SCARLET: ONE YEAR SINCE CHIPOTLE
HAS BEEN HIT, SHARES HAVE YET TO
RECOVER, DOWN 50%.
BET ON ITS OTHER
VENTURES TO TURN THINGS AROUND?
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪
OBAMA HEADING TO
FLOOD RAVAGED LOUISIANA.
DONALD TRUMP AND MIKE PENCE TO
URED THE DAMAGE TODAY.
CLINTON SPOKE WITH THE
STATE'S GOVERNOR.
13 PEOPLE HAVE DIED FROM THOSE
FLOODS.
HAS STEPPED DOWN,
COMING AFTER THE CAMPAIGN
ANNOUNCED A MAJOR SHAKEUP
WEDNESDAY, THE SECOND LEADERSHIP
RESHUFFLE IN TWO MONTHS.
BECOME SCRUTINIZED
BECAUSE OF HIS RUSSIAN
CONNECTION TO THE FORMER
PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE.
TERRORTH TOLL FROM THE
ATTACK IN NICE IS NOW 86.
THE LATEST VICTIM HAD BEEN AT
HOSPITAL AND DIED FROM INJURIES
SUSTAINED DURING THAT JULY
MASSACRE.
IS THE SECOND HOSPITALIZE
PERSON TO DIE SINCE THE ATTACK.
DOZENS MORE WERE WOUNDED WHEN A
TUNISIAN DROVE A TRUCK INTO A
CROWD, THE ISLAMIC STATE TAKING
RESPONSIBILITY.
MILLION DOLLAR CASH
PAYMENT TO IRAN WAS CONTINGENT
ON THE RELEASE OF A GROUP OF
AMERICAN PRISONERS.
IT IS BEING SLAMMED BY GOP
LAWMAKERS TODAY.
IT WAS THE FIRST TIME THE U.S.
HAD DEFINITIVELY LINKED THE TWO
EVENTS.
PAUL RYAN ACCUSE THE PRESIDENT
OF MISLEADING THE PUBLIC.
DONALD TRUMP SAID MR. OBAMA
OPENLY AND BLATANTLY LIED ABOUT
THAT EXCHANGE.
A START LOST HIS JOB AS
PRESIDENT AND CHANCELLOR --
KENNETH STARR LOST HIS JOB AS
AS HEENT AND CHANCELLOR
RESIGNS AS BAYLOR LAW PROFESSOR.
GLOBAL NEWS 24 HOURS A DAY
POWERED BY MORE THAN 2600
JOURNALISTS AND ANALYSTS IN MORE
THAN 120 COUNTRIES.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
SCARLET: "WHAT'D YOU MISS?"
CHIPOTLE MAY NEED TO GROW UP.
THE STOCK HAS SEEN HIGHS AND
LOWS.
SINCE THE BACTERIA OUTBREAK,
THREE STRAIGHT QUARTERS OF
DOUBLE-DIGIT SALES THE KLEINS,
SO IS IT TIME FOR CHIPOTLE TO
REBRAND ITS BUSINESS?
CHIPOTLE IS NOT JUST ABOUT ITS
NAMESAKE RESTAURANT.
FRANCHISES AS WELL.
PART, 99.2% OF
REVENUE COMES FROM CHIPOTLE.
13 SHOP HOUSES AND
THREE PIZZERIA LOCALES.
THEY HAVE HAD THESE CONCEPTS
FOR A WHILE.
BEFORE THE CRISIS, THEY DID NOT
EVER SAY MUCH ABOUT THEM.
THEY HAVE BEEN OUT THERE, BUT
.NLY GETTING ATTENTION NOW
PLUS, THE NEWS THAT THEY WILL
OPEN A BURGER CONCEPT, WHICH HAS
BEEN MET WITH CONFUSION.
THESE GUYS HAVE BIG PROBLEMS IN
THEIR CORE BUSINESS, SHOULDN'T
THEY FIX THE CORE BUSINESS?
WHERE ARE THESE OTHER
RESTAURANTS?
THEY HAVE DONE A COUPLE IN
KANSAS, MARYLAND, WASHINGTON,
, BUT GEOGRAPHIC CLUSTERS
THEY DON'T MOVE THE NEEDLE.
AWAY DRAWING ATTENTION
FROM WHAT THEY SHOULD BE FOCUSED
ON, WHICH IS FIXING THEIR CORE
BUSINESS, WHICH IS TROUBLED.
JOE: WE SHOW THE STOCK CHART
EARLIER.
IT HAS NOT RECOVERED AT ALL FROM
WHEN IT STARTED COLLAPSING AFTER
THE BACTERIA STUFF.
IS THERE ANY SIGN OF A
FUNDAMENTAL BUSINESS TURNAROUND?
>> NO, NOT YET.
THE QUESTION IS WHEN THIS WILL
HAPPEN.
WHEN IT FIRST HIT, PEOPLE SAID
IT COULD BE 2017 BEFORE THIS
STARTS TO TURN AROUND.
BIG HIT TO THEIR
BRAND, HUGE HEADLINE RISKS, THE
NUMBERS HAVE BEEN BAD, THREE
STRAIGHT QUARTERS OF DECLINING
SALES.
I DON'T REMEMBER ANY
HEADLINES RECENTLY.
>> THE LAST PERSON WHO GOT SICK
WAS IN DECEMBER.
THERE WAS A SCARE IN MARCH, BUT
THEY FOLLOWED PROTOCOLS AND NO
CUSTOMERS GOT SICK.
RIGHT NOW IT IS JUST A TARNISHED
BRAND.
OLIVER: SHARES ARE DOWN 49%
RIGHT NOW.
WE'VE TALKING ABOUT THIS
RESTAURANT RECESSION, HOW MUCH
OF THIS -- OBVIOUSLY THEY HAVE
THESE SPECIFIC PROBLEMS, BUT IS
THERE ANY CHANCE THAT IT IS
GETTING WRAPPED UP, MACRO TREND,
WITH RESTAURANTS.
WERE TALKING ABOUT 23%
DECLINES IN SAME-STORE SALES.
THINK CHIPOTLE
IS RIGHT FOR AN ACTIVIST
INVESTOR?
>> WE KEEP HEARING ABOUT THAT.
THE BIG TREND IN RESTAURANTS IS
FRANCHISEESNG, MAKE
TAKE THE COST.
SELL THEM BACK AND TAKE THE
BURGER KING MODEL.
INSULAR AND THERE
HAS BEEN CRITICISM OF NO
DIVERSITY ON THE BOARD.
THE FOUNDERS ARE STILL HEAVILY
INVOLVED.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
SCARLET: COMING UP, AUDIENCE IS
PARTICIPATION, PLEASE.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪
SCARLET: I AM SCARLET FU.
"WHAT'D YOU MISS?"
MY CHART IS ON WHAT AILS THE
ECONOMY.
WE HAVE A LOT OF THAT AND A HUGE
TRADE DEFICIT.
-- WE HAVE A LOT OF DEBT AND A
HUGE TRADE DEFICIT.
IT SEEMS LIKE THERE ARE
DIFFERENT WAYS TO INTERPRET IT.
IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE WAY
OF ESSENTIALLY THESE DIFFERENT
SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY TRADE,
GOVERNMENT SPENDING, PRIVATE
ASSETS.
SCARLET: THE BACK DROP IS THE
U.S. LOSSES AND TRADE AND JOBS.
THE PUSHBACK FROM OTHER
ECONOMISTS WILL SAY THAT
CUMULATIVE TRADE AND TRADE
DEBT FIGURES
DON'T TELL THE WHOLE STORY.
IT DOESN'T ACCOUNT FOR SERVICES
--
YOU HAVE THRIVING ECONOMIES
THAT PERSISTENTLY RUN TRADE
DEFICITS, EVEN DURING BOOM
TIMES.
OLIVER: WHILE THE TWO ARE MIRROR
IMAGES, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
ISSTANDING TREASURIES
MOVING.
JOE: I HAVE A CHART THAT WAS
SENT TO ME.
IS EM RISK.NE
YOU CAN SEE IT BOUNCED IN
JANUARY AND HAS BEEN RALLYING
BACK NICELY.
THE BLUE LINE IS THE MARKETS ONE
YEAR EXPECT TATIAN OF A RATE
HIKE.
FED IS PAYING MORE
AND MORE ATTENTION TO
INTERNATIONAL CONDITIONS.
IT MAKES SENSE PERHAPS THAT THE
MARKETS RATE HIKE EXPECTATIONS
WOULD BE TIED TO THE FORTUNES OF
EMERGING MARKETS.
HIS ARGUMENT AS THAT THE MARKET
IS TOO COMPLACENT ABOUT WHAT THE
FED MIGHT DO IN LIGHT OF THIS
GLOBAL REBOUND.
SCARLET: THAT BLUE LINE NEEDS TO
COME UP A LITTLE BIT.
OLIVER: TALKING ABOUT EMERGING
MARKETS AND VOLATILITY, I'M
LOOKING AT VOLATILITY AGAIN.
THE VIX HAS BEEN LOW, BUT THIS
IS INTERESTING.
THERE IS SUBDUED VOLATILITY AND
THE CURRENCY MARKETS.
SMALL PICKUP IN THE JAPANESE YEN
VOLATILITY, BUT MARKETS REMAIN
COMPLACENT.
WE'VE SEEN VOLATILITY SPIKES
LATELY, BUT FOR NOW, NOT THERE.
RAPIDT: WE WILL DISCUSS A
DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT IN GLOBAL
TERRORISM AND WHAT IT TELLS US
ABOUT THE ECONOMY.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪
WORD LET'S GET TO FIRST
NEWS.
PRESIDENT OBAMA WILL VISIT
LOUISIANA ON TUESDAY.
HE HAS BEEN RECEIVING
UPDATES.
PEOPLE HAVE DIED FROM THE
FLOODS, 40,000 BUILDINGS
DAMAGED.
TRUMP AND MIKE PENCE HAVE
BEEN SURVEYING THE DAMAGE IN
LOUISIANA.
THEY VISITED WITH VICK THEM SO
THE FLOODS.
-- WITH THE VICTIMS OF THE
FLOODS.
HILLARY CLINTON SAYS SHE SPOKE
TO JOHN BEL EDWARDS BY PHONE.
SHE SAYS THE RELIEF EFFORT
CANNOT AFFORD ANY DISTRACTIONS.
SHE SAID THE BEST WAY TO HELP US
TO MAKE SURE THAT THE PEOPLE OF
LOUISIANA HAVE THE RESOURCES
THEY NEED.
,ORE THAN 200 BUILDINGS
INCLUDING 100 SINGLE-FAMILY
HOMES, WERE DESTROYED AND
WILDFIRES 60 MILES EAST OF LOS
ANGELES.
,IREFIGHTERS ARE MAKING HEADWAY
THE FAR NOW 26% CONTAINED.
82,000LAMES FORCED
RESIDENTS FROM THEIR HOMES.
THEIRNT WOMEN AND
PARTNERS SHOULD CONSIDER
POSTPONING TRAVEL TO ALL OF
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
IDENTIFIED ARITIES
SECOND ZONE OF LOCAL ZIKA
TRANSMISSION, INCLUDING SOUTH
BEACH.
STATE NOW HAS TWO AREAS
CONSIDERED ACTIVE FOR POTENTIAL
ZIKA EXPOSURE.
GLOBAL NEWS 24 HOURS A DAY
POWERED BY MORE THAN 2600
JOURNALISTS AND ANALYSTS IN MORE
THAN 120 COUNTRIES.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
. AM RAMY INOCENCIO
SCARLET: THANK YOU.
LET'S GET A RECAP OF TODAY'S
MARKET ACTION, NOT A LOT OF
ACTION TO SPEAK OF, STOCKS
FALLING FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
THREE DAYS, NO ECONOMIC DATA
THAT MOVE THE MARKETS,, SO
EVERYONE IS LOOKING AHEAD TO THE
JACKSON HOLE MEETING NEXT WEEK.
VERY LITTLE RIPPLES IN THE
MARKET, WHETHER IT IS FIXED
INCOME, FOREX, EQUITIES, ALL
VERY QUIET.
OLIVER: IT MAKES YOU WONDER
WHETHER OR NOT PEOPLE ARE
PREPARED FOR ANY KIND OF
DISRUPTION.
WE CHRONICLED A LOT OF THINGS
WHERE PEOPLE HAVE
GOTTEN INTO THE MARKET, SO WE
WILL SEE.
JOE: IT'S ALMOST TOO QUIET.
OLIVER: MAYBE.
JOE: "WHAT'D YOU MISS?"
THE WORLDE CHANGES IN
ECONOMY BY OBSERVING HOW PEOPLE
TRAVEL.
THERE IS A SHIFT IT MAY HAVE A
POSITIVE OUTCOME FOR THE TRAVEL
INDUSTRY.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
WHAT ARE YOUCH,
SEEING IN THE WORLD AND WHAT
SHOULD PEOPLE WHO DON'T A
ATTENTION TO TRAVEL INDUSTRY
TRENDS CLOSELY BE WATCHING?
>> THE SUMMER IS GOING BADLY FOR
THE SECTOR BECAUSE OF FEARS,
ISIS, TERRORISM, ZIKA,
IMMIGRATION, ELECTIONS IN THE
U.S., AND GENERAL UNCERTAINTY.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME ISSUES IN
ISSUES, AIRLINES, I.T.
SOUTHWEST HAD AN ISSUE LAST
WEEK, DELTA AS WELL, SO A BUNCH
OF THINGS ARE AFFECTING THE
INDUSTRY AT THIS POINT.
IS THEK THAT TRAVEL
BELLWETHER SECTOR.
IT IS THE ONE THAT SNEEZES FIRST
WHEN ANYTHING HAPPENS IN THE
WORLD ECONOMY, SO AN INTERESTING
SECTOR TO LOOK AT.
SCARLET: I WANTED TO GET A
COMMENT I BROUGHT FROM THE CEO
OF KAYAK, TO THE EXTENT THAT
AMERICANS MIGHT BE TAKING
ADVANTAGE OF THE STRONGER
DOLLAR.
MOST AMERICANS DON'T THINK IN
TERMS OF EXCHANGE RATES.
TIME TO BUILD, BUT THAT
INTEREST WILL BE THERE.
SCARLET: MAYBE BY NEXT SUMMER.
IS THAT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE
FEARS THAT ABOUND NOW?
>> PROBABLY NOT.
IT DEPENDS ON WHAT KIND OF
DISTRACTIONS HAPPEN.
IS TAKING OUT A HUGE AMOUNT
OF CAPACITY IN THE CRUISE
INDUSTRY.
, THE ANSWER DEPENDS
ON THE TYPE OF DISRUPTION.
OFVER: I WONDER IF SOME
THESE EVENTS HAVE KEPT PEOPLE AT
HOME INSTEAD OF TRAVELING.
I WONDER IF IT IS ALSO WHERE
THEY ARE HAPPENING.
YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT EVENTS IN
BEFORE TRAVELING
TO MIAMI, ALL THESE PLACES YOU
DON'T TYPICALLY ASSOCIATE WITH
FEARS ABOUT TRAVEL.
AT OURE THINGS ARE
DOORSTEPS IN A LOT OF WAYS.
SOME OF THE ECONOMIES ARE
BENEFITING.
THE CAPACITY THAT HAS BEEN TAKEN
, TUNISIA, EGYPT,
THEY'RE GOING TO SPAIN AND
PORTUGAL.
JOE: WHAT ABOUT LOOKING AT IT
FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE
EMERGING CONSUMER AROUND THE
WORLD?
U.S. CONSUMERS ARE LESS INCLINED
TO GO TO EUROPE OR SOUTH
AMERICA, BUT THERE HAS BEEN A
HUGE BOOM OUTBOUND FROM CHINA.
WHAT ELSE ARE WE SEEING IN TERMS
OF COUNTRIES WHERE THERE IS A
BIG BOOM?
CHANGING, ECONOMY IS
BUT BRAZIL THIS YEAR HAS BEEN
PRETTY BAD FOR BRAZILIAN
OUTBOUND.
INDIA IS GROWING WELL.
IF YOU LOOK AT SOUTHEAST ASIA,
IT IS ONE OF THE MOST
FASCINATING AREAS IN THE WORLD
OF TRAVEL BECAUSE THE SHEER
AMOUNT OF PEOPLE THAT LIVE IN
THE EFFECT OFD
LOW-COST AIRLINES IN THAT REGION
OF THE WORLD.
WE THINK SOUTHEAST ASIA IS THE
BEST PLACE TO WATCH.
I WAS COMMENTING TO
SOMEONE BEFORE THE RECENT BOMB
ATTACKS IN THAILAND THAT IT
SEEMS LIKE THE SAFEST PLACE IN
THE WORLD TO VISIT NOW.
ALWAYS SEEMS ON EDGE
BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN A TARGET AND
THE SUMMER HAS BEEN AWFUL FOR
EUROPE.
IS THAT A MISCONCEPTION?
>> I THINK SOUTHEAST ASIA IS
SAFE.
THAILAND FROM A TOURISM
PERSPECTIVE, THEY HAVE THINGS
UNDER CONTROL FOR THE MOST PART.
THAT HOTELSS BECOME
AND AIRPORTS GET HIT AS HIGH
PROFILE TARGETS.
WE HAVE TALKED OFF-LINE
ABOUT WHAT A GREAT COUNTRY
MALAYSIA IS AND HOW MORE PEOPLE
SHOULD TRAVEL THERE.
ARE YOU BULLISH ON THESE
COUNTRIES?
>> I THINK THEY HAVE DONE A GOOD
JOB WITH THEIR INFRASTRUCTURE.
IS CAN AIRLINES DIRECT
ROUTES FROM SOME OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN --
A VERYE CRASH IS
AIRLINES, A TERRIBLE STRING OF
THEM, WAS THERE AN IMPACT ON
TRAVEL DATA AFTER THOSE?
HUGELAYSIA HAD A
CONTINGENT OF CHINESE INBOUND,
AND THAT WAS AFFECTED BIG TIME.
OLIVER: AS PEOPLE RETHINK
TRAVELING, I SUSPECT THERE IS A
REACTION BY HOTELS AND AIRLINES
TO INDUCE PEOPLE.
IS NOW A GOOD TIME TO TRAVEL
WHEN YOU GAUGE EXPENSES?
>> JULY AND AUGUST, THE NUMBER
OF BOOKINGS WERE 20% UP AS A
RESULT OF A WEAKER POUND, SO IT
IS A GOOD TIME TO TRAVEL,
ESPECIALLY IN EUROPE, OUTSIDE
SOME OF THE FLASHPOINTS, IF YOU
WILL.
FRANCE IS STILL A SAFE PLACE IN
GENERAL COMPARED TO OTHER PARTS
OF THE WORLD.
PRICES ARE CHEAP, HOTELS ARE
CHEAP.
THE GOOD PART IS THERE IS A BIG
BATTLE BETWEEN THE ONLINE TRAVEL
BOOKING SITES LIKE KAYAK,
EXPEDIA, AND THE HOTELS, WHICH
MEANS THAT ONE IS TRYING TO
FIGHT THE OTHER AND PRICES ARE
LOWER.
OLIVER: PRICES ARE LOWER AS A
RESULT OF THE COMPETITION.
BACK TO I WANT TO GO
THAT CHART WITH CHINESE TOURISTS
SPENDING AND HOW OFF THE CHARTS
IT IS.
HAVE NOTICED IS THAT
WHENEVER THERE IS A GOLDEN WEEK
IN CHINA, CERTAIN CITIES AND
RESORTS ARE OVERRUN BY CHINESE
TOURIST.
THOUSANDSUNDREDS OF
OF PEOPLE DESCENDING ON ONE
LITTLE CITY THAT MAY NOT BE
EQUIPPED TO DEAL WITH THAT KIND
OF VOLUME.
>> THE VOLUME OUT OF CHINA IS
OFF THE CHARTS.
EVEN INDIA.
IS THERE ANY CHANGE IN
WHERE THEY ARE GOING?
,AVE WE SEEN ANY TRENDS
EUROPE, NORTH AMERICA?
>> THEY USED TO BE THE CLICHÉ OF
ANDCHINESE TOURIST IN BUSES
GOING TO SPECIFIC PARTS OF THE
WORLD.
I THINK THAT IS CHANGING,
ESPECIALLY YOUNGER CHINESE.
THEY ARE GOING BE ON THE HUBS,
BEYOND NEW YORK CITY, FOR
EXAMPLE, THEY WILL END UP IN
PHILLY.
SCARLET: YOU SEE LOTS OF SMALL
GROUPS TRAVELING.
FOR THINK THAT IS GOOD NEWS
SMALLER JOE: CITIES AS WELL.
THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.
SCARLET: DONALD TRUMP'S CAMPAIGN
CHAIRMAN RESIGNED, CAPPING A
WEEK OF DRAMATIC CHANGES FOR THE
REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪
SCARLET: I AM SCARLET FU.
IT IS TIME FOR THE BLOOMBERG
BUSINESS FLASH.
BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES PARING
LOSSES WITH A GAIN OF ALMOST 3%.
DECLINES FORIM
PURE ALPHA TWO TO 9%.
THE FUND HAD LOST CLOSE TO 12%.
MORGANAWSUIT ACCUSES
STANLEY OF FORCING HYPHAE
INVESTMENT FUNDS.
SAID THEPARTICIPANT
COMPANY TREATED IT'S A
BILLION-DOLLAR PLAN TO PROMOTE
ITS OWN MUTUAL FUND BUSINESS.
IT IS ALSO ACCUSED OF CHARGING
HIGHER FUND FEES TO ITS OWN
WORKERS THAN OUTSIDE INVESTORS.
TRAVELERS AT WITH
ALS AND HAS DIED TODAY.
THAT IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BUSINESS
FLASH.
OLIVER: "WHAT'D YOU MISS?"
PAUL MANAFORT HAS RESIGNED AS
DONALD TRUMP'S CAMPAIGN
CHAIRMAN.
PRO-RUSSIAN
GOVERNMENTS SIGOURNEY ROUTE
PAYMENTS.
FOR A LOOK AT THE NEXT STEPS FOR
TEAM TRUMP, LET'S HEAD TO
WASHINGTON.
WELCOME.
A BIG OF A MESS AS IT
LOOKS LIKE?
>> YOU DON'T WANT SOMEONE TO BE
RUNNING A CAMPAIGN THAT IS
ESSENTIALLY A FOREIGN AGENT OR
HAS BEEN A FOREIGN AGENT FOR
PEOPLE SYMPATHETIC TO RUSSIA.
WHERE HE WASHING
SUPPOSED TO REGISTER AS A
FOREIGN AGENT AND DIDN'T.
THIS IS SOMETHING THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE CONVERSATION IN
WASHINGTON FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THAT IS NOT THE REBOOT THAT
DONALD TRUMP WAS LOOKING FOR.
COMES ONRESIGNATION
THE HEELS OF THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN
HAVING BROUGHT IN SOME NEW BLOOD
AT THE VERY TOP THAT SOME
INTERPRETED TO BE AT THE MOTION
FOR PAUL MANAFORT.
HOW MUCH OF THIS RESIGNATION IS
THE TO THE FACT THAT
WRITING WAS ON THE WALL AND HE
WAS NO LONGER IN CHARGE?
HOW WAS THE BRINGING END OF THE
NEW BLOOD AND ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF
BAD NEWS TO PAUL MANAFORT,
UKRAINE TIES, WHAT WAS THE CAUSE
AND EVENT HERE?
I'M CERTAIN IT WAS THE NEWS
COMING OUT ABOUT UKRAINE THAT
WOULD BE THE CAUSE FOR THIS
RESIGNATION.
EASIER THAT HET
BECAME LESS IMPORTANT FOR THE
CAMPAIGN AT THIS POINT.
HE WAS ALREADY BEING
DEEMPHASIZED EVEN THOUGH HE WAS
IN A CIRCLE AMONG THE TOP FOUR
PEOPLE IN THE CAMPAIGN STILL.
WHEN YOU ARE HAVING THE
CONVERSATION ABOUT THE TOP EIGHT
BEING A FOREIGN AGENT FOR PEOPLE
SYMPATHETIC TO VLADIMIR PUTIN,
IT IS NOT A HARD DECISION TO
ACCEPT HIS RESIGNATION.
SCARLET: SPEAKING OF AN INNER
CIRCLE, IT IS NOTABLE THAT
IVANKA TRUMP AND HER HUSBAND
WERE ON VACATION AROUND THE TIME
THESE CHANGES TOOK PLACE.
IS THERE ANYTHING TO READ INTO
THAT?
>> I DON'T THINK I WOULD READ
MUCH INTO IT BECAUSE THIS IS NOT
A HARD POLITICAL DECISION.
AGAIN, IT IS VERY EMBARRASSING
AND YOU HAVE ALREADY MADE A
DECISION THAT YOU ARE GOING TO
GO IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION AND
YOU'RE JUST KEEPING HIM AROUND
FOR SOME CONTINUITY.
IT IS NOT A HARD DECISION TO
MAKE.
IN AR: I WANT TO BRING
SOUNDBITE FROM A DONALD TRUMP'S
SPEECH, WHERE HE DID SOMETHING
THAT HE DOES NOT TYPICALLY DO,
WHICH WAS SOME KIND OF APOLOGY.
>> SOMETIMES IN THE HEAT OF
DEBATE AND SPEAKING ON A
MULTITUDE OF ISSUES, YOU DON'T
CHOOSE THE RIGHT WORDS OR YOU
SAY THE WRONG THING, I HAVE DONE
THAT, AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT, I
REGRET IT.
WHAT KIND OF APOLOGY IS
THIS?
IS THIS WHAT MY MOTHER CALLED
CROCODILE TEARS?
SHOWSS IS SOMETHING THAT
HE IS DOING WHAT A LOT OF
POLITICIANS DO.
YOU CAN'T NECESSARILY GET
EVERYTHING BACK I MAKING AN
APOLOGY, BUT IT HELPS SOME, AND
YOU HAVE TO MAKE APOLOGY
NOTTIMES EVEN IF YOU DO
FULLY REGRET IT IN POLITICS, AND
THIS IS AN EXAMPLE WHERE TRUMP
THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IS
DOING SOMETHING THEY DO IN THE
BIG LEAGUES IN POLITICS, WHICH
WHEN YOU OFFEND VOTERS, YOU
MAKE AN APOLOGY, EVEN IF IT WILL
NOT WIN THEM ALL BACK AND EVEN
IF YOU DO NOT ENTIRELY REGRET
WHAT YOU SAID.
THE HILLARYRE IS
CLINTON CAMPAIGN, THEIR OWN
CONTROVERSIES AROUND TIES TO
FOREIGN ENTITIES.
WE FOUND THE CLINTON FOUNDATION
WILL NO LONGER ACCEPT MONEY FROM
FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS.
WILL THE DONALD TRUMP CAMPAIGN
BE SUCCESSFUL OR ABLE TO MAKE
SOME HAY WITH CLINTON'S OWN
CONNECTIONS TO FOREIGN ENTITIES
NOW THE PAUL MANAFORT IS OUT OF
THE WAY?
>> ABSOLUTELY.
TO MAKE SOME ABLE
HAY, EVEN WITH PAUL MANAFORT,
BUT IT HELPS THAT HE IS OUT.
THERE ARE FOREIGN ENTITIES WHO
HAVE DONATED TO THE CLINTON
INITIATIVE THAT HAVE BEEN
INVOLVED IN THE CLINTON
FOUNDATION.
IT IS NOT UNKNOWN IN POLITICS
FOR THE POT TO CALL THE KETTLE
BLACK, AND IT WASN'T AS IF
DONALD TRUMP WAS DIRECTLY
INVOLVED IN PAUL MANAFORT'S
ACTIVITIES.
NOW THEY HAVE JETTISONED HIM.
I IMAGINE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
EVEN IFUT THIS, IN
HILLARY CLINTON WERE TO BE
ELECTED, YOU WOULD SEE CRITICISM
LIKELY FROM SOME DONORS.
GOING TORE ARE DONORS
A FOUNDATION TIED TO SOMEONE,
THAT LEAVES YOU VULNERABLE TO
CRITICISM.
JOE: THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
COMING UP, THE STATUS
OF STARLING, WILL IT EVER BE A
SAFE HAVEN IN A POST-BREXIT
WORLD?
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪
SCARLET: I AM SCARLET FU.
"WHAT'D YOU MISS?"
SAFE HAVENG DESERVED
STATUS?
STERLING DESERVED SAFE
HAVEN STATUS?
I THINK SCANDINAVIAN
CURRENCIES ARE AAA, BUT NO ONE
WANTS THEM ANYMORE.
STERLING PROVIDES LIQUIDITY.
WE ARE IN A CASH DRIVEN
ENVIRONMENT AND STERLING WILL
PROVIDE IT.
WE DON'T HAVE THE EURO
STRUCTURAL ISSUES TO WORRY
ABOUT.
TO PICK UP ON
SOMETHING YOU GUYS HAVE BEEN
, SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS
AND PRIVATE INVESTORS WILL BE
HAPPY TO FINANCE THE CURRENT
ACCOUNT DEFICIT.
THAT IS NOT A CONSENSUS VIEW IN
LONDON RIGHT NOW.
>> YOU WANT TO FINANCE A CURRENT
ACCOUNT DEFICIT FOR WHAT REASON?
ACCESS TO THE
EUROPEAN UNION, YOU DON'T WANT
TO BE IN THE U.K.
FUNDS AREEIGN WEALTH
NOT HERE FOR ACCESS TO THE EU.
SECONDLY, THE PRICE ISSUE.
STERLING HAS ALREADY ADJUSTED.
RELATIVE TO EMERGING-MARKET
CURRENCIES, IT HAS NOT FALLEN AS
AGGRESSIVELY AGAINST THE DOLLAR.
THIRDLY, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS,
FINANCING, BY VIRTUE OF
CORRECTION IN THE CURRENCY, AND
YIELDS IN THE U.K. FALLING, I
THINK THE INCOME BALANCE CAN
STABILIZE AND TURN AROUND, SO
WHY WORRY?
A SITUATIONFACE
WHERE BOE STIMULUS BECOME
STERLING POSITIVE?
>> ABSOLUTELY.
IF YOU CBOE STIMULUS
,OMPLEMENTED BY A FISCAL RESET
IF GROWTH BEGINS TO SURPRISE TO
,HE UPSIDE NEXT YEAR AND BEYOND
THEN THAT COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO
THE CURRENCY AND OTHER U.K.
ASSETS AS WELL.
WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT HOW FOOTSIE
IS A BENEFICIARY OF WEAKER
STERLING.
THAT CORRELATION IS NOT
CONSTANT.
U.K. UNDER POSITION, GROWTH TO
THE UPSIDE, THEN FLOWS IN THIS
DIRECTION.
SEEN MORE FOREIGN
CAPITAL COMING IN AS STERLING
PRIZES, DOES THAT DECREASE THE
PRESSURE ON THE GOVERNMENT OR
BOE?
FOR THE BOE, THEY WILL BE
MORE CAREFUL.
INFLATION WILL
SPIKE IN THE COMING QUARTER.
STRONGCURRENCY REMAINS
OVER THE NEXT FEW QUARTERS, THEN
INFLATION BEGINS TO UNDERSTAND
THE OE ASSUMPTIONS, THEN THERE
MAY BE A PROBLEM COMPARED TO
OTHERS.
YOU NEED TO KNOW
TO GEAR UP FOR NEXT WEEK.
THAT IS COMING UP.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪
NEW HOME SALES COME
OUT TUESDAY.
ECONOMIST ARE LOOKING FOR A
SLIGHT DECLINE FROM THE 592,002
577,000 ANALYZED.
THERE IS A LOT OF NOISE IN THESE
NUMBERS.
IMPORTANCE OF HOUSING
AND BELIEVE THERE IS STILL A BIG
UPTREND HERE, YOU MIGHT WANT TO
PAY ATTENTION.
BECAUSE THIS
IS WHAT CREATES JOBS, NEW HOMES.
WHAT PEOPLEKNOW
WILL READ FAR TOO MUCH INTO?
EVERY WORD THAT COMES OUT OF
JANET YELLEN NEXT WEEK.
SHE WILL BE AN JACKSON HOLE ON
FRIDAY.
ONRYBODY WILL BE LISTENING
WHETHER SHE COMMENTS ON RATES OR
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, ADDING
ANYTHING TO THE FED MINUTES.
CHINA'S INDUSTRIAL
PROFITS COMING OUT ON FRIDAY AS
WELL.
TIME, JUNE,
INCREASE OF 5.1%.
I HAVE A CHART LOOKING AT
CHINESE INDUSTRIAL PROFITS
VERSUS THE CHINESE CURRENCY.
YOU HAVE THE DOLLAR RISING AND
ANDME VERSUS THE YUAN
INDUSTRIAL PROFITS COMING OFF
THEIR LOWS.
THAT DOES IT FOR "WHAT'D YOU
MISS?"
THANK YOU FOR WATCHING.
JOE: HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪
.
.
MARGARET: I MARGARET TALEV IT.
JOSHUA: AND I'M JOSH GREEN.
WITH ALL RESPECT TO PAUL
MANAFORT, WE HARDLY KNEW YOU.
>> ♪
JOSHUA: TGIF.
MARK AND JOHN ARE OFF THIS
SUMMER FRIDAY, SO MARGARET AND I
AM HERE IN WASHINGTON D C, TO DO
THE SHOW.
AUGUST IS A BORING MONTH FOR
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS.
IT DOES NOT ALWAYS --
>> PAUL MANAFORT, THE TRUMP
CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN COME OUT.
JOSHUA: OR MAYBE NOT.
TRUMP'S PIVOT IS TAKING MANY
FORMS TODAY.
FURTHER TIES -- AS THE A.P.
REVEALED MORE TIES, IT BECAME
CLEAR MANAFORT'S ONLY VIABLE
PATH WAS WHATEVER THE OPPOSITION
-- THE OPPOSITE OF ANNEXATION
IS.
SON'SORNING, TRUMP'S
ADJUSTED IT WAS PART OF THE
REASON THE CHAIRMAN HAD TO GO.
>> I THINK MY FATHER DID NOT
WANT TO BE DISTRACTED BY
WHATEVER THINGS PAUL WAS DEALING
WITH.
PAUL WAS AMAZING.
HE HELPED US GET THROUGH THE
CONVENTION.
HE DID A GREAT JOB WITH THE
DELEGATES.
SOME OF THE AT
OTHER PEOPLE WE ARE BRINGING IN,
AND THEY ARE FANTASTIC.
I THINK THEY ARE GOING TO BE THE
ONES THAT BRING US ALL THE WAY
THROUGH NOVEMBER 8 AND
ULTIMATELY GET US THE VICTORY.
MY FATHER JUST DID NOT WANT TO
HAVE A DISTRACTION LOOMING OVER
THE CAMPAIGN, AND QUITE FRANKLY
LOOMING OVER THE ISSUES HILLARY
IS FACING RIGHT NOW.
JOSHUA: IF THERE IS ANYONE WHO
SYMPATHIZES WITH WHAT MANAFORT
IS GOING THROUGH RIGHT NOW, IT
IS COREY LEWANDOWSKI, TRUMP'S
FIRST CAMPAIGN MANAGER WHO WAS
PUSHED OUT BY MANAFORT IN JUNE.
LEWANDOWSKI WENT ON CNN TO TALK
ABOUT THE NEWS THIS MORNING.
HE DID NOT GLOAT AT ALL ABOUT
THE MAN WHO OUSTED HIM.
>> AT THE END OF THE DAY, YOU
HAVE PEOPLE THAT HAD A VISION
FOR THE CAMPAIGN WHICH DID NOT
ALIGN WITH WHAT DONALD TRUMP
WANTED.
IT HAS BEEN WIDELY REPORTED
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A ROBUST
EFFORT IN STATES LIKE FLORIDA.
THAT HAVE NOT BEEN LAID OUT YET.
YOU CANNOT BLAME THE CANDIDATE
FOR THOSE THINGS.
THOSE THINGS FALL SQUARELY ON
THE STAFF SOMETIMES YOU HAVE TO
BRING DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVES IN.
SOMETIMES YOU HAVE CHANGES,
PARTICULARLY IN A CAMPAIGN THAT
HAS MISSED OPPORTUNITIES TO GO
AFTER HILLARY CLINTON FOR THE
FAILURES OF HER CAMPAIGN AND
POINT OUT THOSE FAILURES.
I DON'T THINK THEY HAVE DONE A
GOOD JOB ON THAT.
JOSHUA: MAYBE YOU DID GLOAT A
LITTLE BIT.
WHAT DO WE LEARN FROM THE
MANAFORT ERA AND WHAT COMES NEXT
FOR TRUMP?
MARGARET: THE FIRST THING WE
LEARNED IS DONALD TRUMP IS HARD
TO REIN IN.
MANAFORT IS A PRO.
HE KNOWS HOW TO DO THIS.
HE TOLD TRUMP WHAT HE WANTED TO
DO AND TRUMP BELIEVED IN HIM AT
ONE POINT.
BUT EVERY TIME HE TRIED TO
MODULATE OR MODULATE --
MODERATE, TRUMP WAS GUIDED BY
HIS BETTER INSTINCTS.
WE LEARNED THAT.
ANOTHER THING WE LEARNED IS PAUL
MANAFORT'S CONNECTIONS WITH
PRO-RUSSIAN UKRAINIAN FORCES
WERE DAMAGING TO TRUMP,
PARTICULARLY IN COMBINATION WITH
TRUMP'S MISCUES IN TERMS OF
TURNING AGAINST THE GOLD STAR
FAMILY.
TRUMP IS NOW IN A POSITION WHERE
THEY FELT THEY NEEDED -- HE FELT
HE NEEDED TO DO THIS TO SALVAGE
HIS PROSPECTS.
FALLA: TRUMP IS ABLE TO
PREY TO THE SAME STAFF PROBLEMS
OF HILLARY CLINTON OR ANY OTHER
TRADITIONAL CANDIDATE WOULD BE
IF YOUR STAFFERS ARE DOING
THINGS THEY SHOULD NOT BE DOING
A GET CAUGHT WITH THEIR HAND IN
THE COOKIE JAR.
THE SAME WAY MARK PENN DID WITH
HILLARY CLINTON'S CAMPAIGN IN
2008.
MARGARET: DONALD TRUMP WANTS TO
FOCUS ON DONALD TRUMP.
IN THIS CASE, HE DID NOT WANT
THE FOCUS TO BECOME ABOUT PAUL
MANAFORT.
NOW THE QUESTION IS, IS THE
FOCUS WANT TO STAY ON DONALD
TRUMP IN THE WAY HIS NEW TEAM
WANTS IT TO?
JOSHUA: SO FAR, SO GOOD.
HE HAS MANAGED TO MODERATE HIS
IMAGE A LITTLE BIT WITH A SPEECH
THAT SHOWED MAYBE THERE IS
FINALLY GOING TO BE A PIVOT.
MARGARET: IS ONLY 36 HOURS IN.
LET'S KEEP THAT IN MIND.
LAST NIGHT IN NORTH CAROLINA,
THEY TOOK THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN
RAINS.
DONALD DID SOMETHING WE HAVE
NEVER SEEN HIM DO AS A
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE.
APOLOGIZE.
IN A WAY ONLY TRUMP WOULD DO.
DONALD TRUMP: SOMETIMES IN THE
HEATED DEBATE AND SPEAKING ON A
MULTITUDE OF ISSUES, YOU DON'T
CHOOSE THE RIGHT WORDS OR YOU
SAY THE WRONG THING.
I HAVE DONE THAT.
AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT, I REGRET
IT.
AND I DO REGRET IT.
PARTICULARLY WHERE IT MAY HAVE
CAUSED PERSONAL PAIN.
STAKE FOR US TO
BE CONSUMED WITH THESE ISSUES.
BUT ONE THING I CAN PROMISE YOU
THIS.
I WILL ALWAYS TELL YOU THE
TRUTH.
[CHEERS AND APPLAUSE]
MARGARET: THERE IS A WORD FOR
THIS KIND OF THING THAT HAS BEEN
USED AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN
AND AGAIN TO DESCRIBE THE TRUMP
CAMPAIGN OVER THE PAST FEW
MONTHS.
PIVOTING.
>> DONALD TRUMP APPEARS READY TO
PIVOT TO A MORE PRESIDENTIAL
DEMEANOR.
>> IN THE MIDST OF THE PIVOT
PEOPLE WERE EXPECTING AHEAD OF
THE NOVEMBER ELECTION.
>> MANY ARE CALLING THIS THE
BEGINNING OF THE TRUMP PIVOT TO
THE PRESIDENTIAL TRUMP.
>> WE KEEP HAVING THIS
DISCUSSION ONCE A WEEK IF NOT
MORE OFTEN ABOUT HOW THIS IS THE
TRUMP PIVOT.
THIS IS GOING TO BE THE DAY HE
FOCUSES ON SUBSTANCE.
>> THIS IS THE 47TH TIME WE HAVE
DONE IT.
>> I WILL SAY WHAT I SAID LAST
TIME AND SIX MONTH AGO WHICH IS
HE IS FUNDAMENTALLY INCAPABLE OF
DOING THAT.
TRUMPET: AND YET, TEAM
HAS AGAIN TRIED TO RESET THIS
SPEECHES MORE POLICY
AND THE FIRST GENERAL ELECTION
TV ADS WHICH TOUCHES ON
IMMIGRATION AND HITS AIRWAVES IN
FOUR STATES TODAY.
TRUMP'S SPEECH,
THE CLINTON CAMPAIGN PUT OUT A
STATEMENT THAT SAID IN PART --
JOSH, TRUMP HAS BEEN PLAYING
THIS PIVOT GAME BEFORE.
HAVE WE SEEN ANYTHING TO SUGGEST
THIS TIME WILL BE DIFFERENT?
JOSHUA: YOU NEVER KNOW.
THIS COULD LAST 24 HOURS OR 48
HOURS.
IT COULD BE BACK TO SOME INSANE
TWEET THAT SINCE THE POLITICAL
MEDIA SCRAMBLING.
I THINK IT COULD BE DIFFERENT
FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS.
HE HAS DECIDED HE IS NOT
COMFORTABLE WITH PAUL MANAFORT.
HE HAS DECIDED MANAFORT'S
RUSSIAN BUSINESS DEALINGS ARE
HURTING HIM AND PUSHED HIM OUT.
HE'S BROUGHT IN A NEW TEAM HE
HAS KNOWN FOR A LONG TIME.
HE'S COMFORTABLE WITH THEM.
IN SPEAKING TO SENIOR TRUMP
OFFICIALS, THEY SAY TRUMP
REALIZES HE IS BEHIND AND NEEDS
TO MODERATE AND SOFTEN HIS
IMAGE, WIN BACK SOME OF THE
VOTERS HE HAS ALIENATED.
THE ONLY WAY HE WILL DO THAT IS
IF HE ACKNOWLEDGES I HAVE MADE
MISTAKES.
I THINK THAT IS WHAT LED TO THIS
UNEXPECTED AND PRETTY REMARKABLE
CONCESSION TRUMP MADE IN HIS
SPEECH LAST NIGHT.
MARGARET: ARE THEY TRYING TO
GOAD HIM?
JOSHUA: I THINK THEY ARE.
HE SOUGHT AFTER THE ANNOUNCEMENT
MANAFORT WAS LEAVING, HIS
CAMPAIGN MANAGER LITERALLY SAID
THIS DOES NOT END THE STRANGE
BROMANCE BETWEEN VLADIMIR PUTIN
AND DONALD TRUMP.
THEY DON'T WANT TO LET THE ISSUE
GO.
IT MAY NOT GO AWAY.
AT LEAST HE HAS HELPED HIMSELF
GETTING MANAFORT OUT OF THE FOLD
AND STOPPING THE STORY THAT HURT
TRUMP'S CAMPAIGN.
MARGARET: THE MAIN QUESTION IS
HOW LONG IT WILL LAST.
LET'S REASSESS.
JOSHUA: SPEAKING OF PRESIDENTIAL
THINGS, DONALD TRUMP AND HIS
RUNNING MATE MIKE PENCE TODAY
FLEW TO BATON ROUGE, LOUISIANA,
TO TOUR IMAGE -- AREAS DAMAGED
BY RECENT HEAVY FLOODING.
THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEES MET WITH
FIRST RESPONDERS AND VOLUNTEERS
AT A BAPTIST CHURCH THIS
MORNING.
THERE HE IS UNLOADING A TRUCK OF
SUPPLIES IN HIS LASER.
THE CAMPAIGN WAS CLEAR OF THIS
TRIP WAS DESIGNED TO DRAW A
CONTRAST WITH PRESIDENT OBAMA
WHO HAS BEEN CRITICIZED BY SOME
FOR NOT INTERRUPTING HIS
MARTHA'S VINEYARD VACATION TO
VISIT THE DISASTER REGION.
WE SHOULD NOTE THAT THE
DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR OF LOUISIANA
HAS SAID HE PREFERRED THE
PRESIDENT HOLD OFF SO IT DOES
NOT INTERRUPT RECOVERY EFFORTS.
THE WHITE HOUSE ANNOUNCED TODAY
OBAMA WILL GO ON TUESDAY.
THESE TYPES OF VISITS AFTER
NATURAL DISASTERS ARE PART OF
THE GEEKS FOR PRESIDENTS AND
PRESIDENT OF CANDIDATE.
HOW DID TRUMP DO TODAY?
MARGARET: HE DID NOT BLOW IT.
HE IS DOWN THERE TRYING.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS.
NUMBER ONE, JOHN BEL EDWARDS DID
SAY INITIALLY IT WAS TOO SOON
FOR OBAMA TO GO AND BY EXTENSION
YOU CAN IMAGINE HIS PRIORITY
NUMBER ONE WAS PROBABLY NOT TO
HAVE THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE
STUMPING FOR VOTES.
THE QUESTION FOR TRUMP IS
TWOFOLD.
NUMBER ONE, HOW DOES THE PUBLIC
IN LOUISIANA RESPOND AND HOW
DOES THE NATION SEE IT?
DO THEY SEE IT AS HIM BEING
CONCERNED OF THE PEOPLE OF
LOUISIANA OR DO THEY SEE IT AS A
PHOTO OP?
JOSHUA: I THOUGHT IT WAS
INTERESTING.
OBVIOUSLY, IT WAS A PHOTO OP ON
ONE LEVEL.
I THOUGHT TRUMP SHOULD HAVE HAD
A WORK SHIRT WITH A "MAKE
AMERICA GREAT" LOGO SO YOU LOOK
MORE COMFORTABLE PASSING FOOD
OUT TO VICTIMS OF THE FLOOD.
ON ANOTHER LEVEL, IT WAS
INTERESTING THAT THEY PUT THIS
TOGETHER BUT DID NOT LET
REPORTERS COME ALONG.
THEY DID NOT LET TRUMP COME
ALONG.
I WAS REMINDED OF THE MOVIE
"WHAT ABOUT BOB" WHERE BILL
MURRAY WAS TALKING ABOUT DOING
THINGS IN BABY STEPS.
THIS SEEMED LIKE A BABY STEP FOR
ME FOR TRUMP AND GETTING OUT
THERE A WAY FROM THE STADIUM
RALLIES, AWAY FROM FOX NEWS, AND
TRYING TO MASTER THE
PERFORMATIVE ELEMENTS OF A
PRESIDENT OF CANDIDATE.
MARGARET: THE VISUALS.
RECORDERE WITH A TAPE
TO ASK ME QUESTION HE COULD
MISHANDLE ON TAPE.
WHEN WE COME BACK, BOTH
CANDIDATES ARE BETTING ON
PRESIDENT OBAMA.
WILL YOU BE AN ASSET OR A
LIABILITY FOR HILLARY CLINTON IN
NOVEMBER?
WE WILL TALK ABOUT THAT AND MORE
WHEN WE COME RIGHT BACK.
♪
MARGARET: LET'S CHECK IN ON
PRESIDENT OBAMA.
RECENTLY, THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
NEWS EVENTS, MOSTLY
INTERNATIONAL, THAT THE WHITE
HOUSE IS NOT THRILLED ABOUT.
THE PICTURE OF A FIVE-YEAR-OLD
PULLED FROM THE AIRSTRIKE RUBBLE
REMINDED THE WORLD OF THE
HORRORS IN SEVERE -- IN SYRIA.
AND YESTERDAY, THE STATE
DEPARTMENT ADMITTED THE CASH
PAYMENT TO THE U.S. MAJOR IRAN
WAS LINKED TO THE RELEASE OF
AMERICAN HOSTAGES REIGNITING A
DEBATE OVER THE DEFINITION OF
THE WORD RANSOM.
WONDER WONDER HOW OBAMA'S
APPROVAL RATING IS DOING THESE
DAYS.
>> THE PRESIDENT HAS A HIGH
APPROVAL RATING.
>> HE IS LEAVING OFFICE WITH
HIGHS IN THE APPROVAL RATING.
MARGARET: THAT IS RIGHT.
PRESIDENT OBAMA'S APPROVAL
RATING HAS SOARED TO A STUNNING
-- I GUESS IT IS ONLY 53%.
THAT IS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
PEW POLL.
HILLARY CLINTON HAS BEEN
EMBRACING OBAMA ON THE CAMPAIGN
TRAIL, AND DONALD TRUMP IS
TAKING EVERY OPPORTUNITY TO TALK
ABOUT THE OBAMA/CLINTON
ADMINISTRATION DAYS.
WILL THE PRESIDENT BE MORE OF AN
ASSET OR A LIABILITY TO CLINTON
IN THE COMING DAYS?
JOSHUA: I DON'T THINK THERE'S
ANY QUESTION BUT HE IS GOING TO
BE A POSITIVE FOR CLINTON.
I THINK ONE OF THE REMARKABLE
STORIES ABOUT THIS CAMPAIGN, IF
YOU WERE TO BACK UP 18 MONTHS,
24 MONTHS, OBAMA'S APPROVAL
RATINGS WERE IN THE 30'S.
WHEN POLLSTERS ASKED PEOPLE IF
YOU WANT THE NEXT PRESIDENT TO
HAVE HIS VISION SIMILAR TO
DIFFERENT THAN BARACK OBAMA, 75%
SAID DIFFERENT.
IT LOOKED LIKE HE WAS GOING TO
BE A MOST RUN -- MILLSTONE
AROUND THE NECK OF THE HILLARY
CLINTON CAMPAIGN.
RA IS THEIS POLITICAL EUROPE
NEW 80%.
FOR A PAIR OF CANDIDATES WITH
UPSIDE DOWN FAVORABILITY RATINGS
STRUGGLED TO BREAK 45%, HAVING
53% IS A REAL PLUS.
I THINK CLINTON HAS RECOGNIZED
THAT AND IS EMBRACING OBAMA AS
SHE SHOULD.
MARGARET: COMPARED TO CLINTON
HERSELF, HE'S DOING JUST FINE.
COMPARED TO GEORGE W. BUSH,
NOWHERE CLOSE TO 53% IN THE
WANING MONTHS OF HIS
ADMINISTRATION.
JOSHUA: AT THE DEMOCRATIC
CONVENTION, THERE WAS SO MUCH OF
A COMING TOGETHER.
NOT JUST BARACK OBAMA'S SPEECH,
BUT MICHELLE OBAMA'S SPEECH AND
THE IDEA THIS IS OUR PRESIDENT.
IN EIGHT YEARS, WE HAVE
ACCOMPLISHED RATE THINGS.
WE BROUGHT THE ECONOMY BACK.
I THINK IT IS NATURAL, BARRING
AN ARREST OR CALAMITY LIKE WE
SAW WITH GEORGE W. BUSH AT THE
END OF THE PRESIDENT'S TENURE
THAT THERE WILL BE GOOD FEELINGS
ABOUT HIM, ESPECIALLY WHEN THE
CONTRAST IS THE RATIO HAVE
BETWEEN THE TWO MOST UNPOPULAR
MAJOR NOMINEES EVER TO RUN FOR
THE PRESIDENCY.
MARGARET: AGREED.
MORE OF AN ASSET THAN A
LIABILITY AT THIS POINT.
JOSHUA: AFTER MONTH OF
CRITICISM, THE CLINTON
FOUNDATION SAYS IT WILL NO
LONGER ACCEPT FOREIGN AND
CORPORATE DONATIONS IF HILLARY
CLINTON IS ELECTED PRESIDENT IN
NOVEMBER.
BILL CLINTON BROKE THE NEWS TO
FOUNDATION STAFF MEMBERS
YESTERDAY, WHICH ALSO HAPPENED
TO BE THE DAY AFTER DONALD TRUMP
HIRED STEPHEN BANNON AS HIS NEW
CAMPAIGN CEO.
A HILLARYFIT FUNDED
HATING BOOK CALLED "CLINTON
CASH" WHICH MADE HEADLINES LAST
YEAR AND RAISED QUESTIONS ABOUT
POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
BETWEEN FOUNDATION DONORS AND
CLINTON'S WORK AS SECRETARY OF
STATE.
COINCIDENCE?
WHETHER OR NOT THIS FOUNDATION
MOVE IS A RESPONSE TO BANNON, IS
THERE ANY POTENCY LEFT IN THE
CLINTON CASH ATTACKS?
THEARET: THIS IS WHAT
CLINTONS HAVE BEEN PREPARING FOR
EVEN BEFORE THEY KNEW IT WOULD
BE STEVE BANNON AT THE CONTROLS
FOR MONTHS.
IT IS NOT EVEN LABOR DAY YET.
WHEN THAT HAPPENS, PRESUMABLY A
TURNING POINT.
EVERYTHING FROM GENNIFER FLOWERS
TO THE CLINTON FOUNDATION MONEY
IS ON THE TABLE.
THAT IS WHAT THEY HAVE ALWAYS
ASSUMED.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT EARLY POLLING
IN THE PRIMARY SEASON, WHAT MANY
DEMOCRATS WERE BOTHERED BY WAS
VAGUENESS,ESS,
BLURRING BETWEEN THE CLINTON
FOUNDATION AND SECRETARY OF
STATE ROLES.
JOSHUA: THE OTHER THING THAT
STRUCK ME ABOUT THE MANAFORT
EXIT WAS THE CLINTON FOUNDATION
ATTACKS ARE ESSENTIALLY "YOU
TOOK MONEY FROM SHADY FOREIGN
OPERATORS" INCLUDING PEOPLE IN
THE UKRAINE AND RUSSIA.
YOU CAN'T LOG THOSE ATTACKS WHEN
THE CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN IN YOUR
OWN CAMPAIGN IS UNDER
AND GETTINGN
HENPECKED BY POLITICAL REPORTERS
FOR DOING THE SAME THING.
MARGARET: IT WAS OBSTRUCTION BUT
NOW --
JOSHUA: AFTER MANAFORT LEFT,
REINCE PRIEBUS TWEETED THIS IS
-- IS UNACCEPTABLE THE CLINTON
FOUNDATION WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCEPT FOREIGN DONATIONS.
WHY DIDN'T THEY CUT THEM OFF
NOW?
WHY WAIT UNTIL AFTER HILLARY
CLINTON IS ELECTED?
MARGARET: THEY SHOULD HAVE
ANNOUNCED A YEAR AGO OR SIX
MONTHS AGO THIS WAS THEIR PLAN.
YOU SEE THIS AGAIN AND AGAIN.
YOU START LINKING TO THE E-MAIL
CONTROVERSY.
WHAT SHE SAYS SHE COULD HAVE
SAID IN THE BEGINNING AND THERE
WOULD HAVE BEEN A LOT LESS
DAMAGE.
IT WOULD HAVE MADE THINGS MUCH
EASIER.
NEXT, A MAN WITH THE MIDAS
TOUCH.
HE JOINS US NEXT TO TALK ABOUT A
NEW MAJOR PLAYER IN TRUMP WORLD
AFTER THESE WORDS FROM OUR
SPONSORS.
♪
MARGARET: WE AT
BLOOMBERGPOLITICS, LIKE THE REST
OF THE POLITICAL WORLD, HAVE
THE REMARKING -- REMAPPING
POLITICAL WORLD IN DONALD
TRUMP'S EXPANDING ORBIT AND WE
NOTICED TWO PEOPLE SUDDENLY AT
THE CENTER OF TRUMP ALEKSEI --
GALAXY.
ROBERT MERCER, A NEW YORK
INVESTOR AND HIS CONSERVATIVE
PHILANTHROPIST DAUGHTER HAVE
BIG-TIME FINANCIAL TIES TO
TRUMP'S NEW CAMPAIGN CHIEFS.
AND NOW BOTH ARE SERIOUS PLAYERS
IN TRUMP'S PRESENT TO BED.
WITH US FROM NEW YORK TO TALK
MORE ABOUT THIS IS CLOSER
PRIZE-WINNING BLOOMBERG
JOURNALIST WHO HAS WRITTEN A LOT
ABOUT THE MERCERS OVER THE PAST
YEAR AND JOINS US FROM NEW YORK.
TALK TO US ABOUT THIS FAMILY.
ANYTHING INTERESTING WE SHOULD
KNOW ABOUT EITHER ONE, FATHER
WERE DAUGHTER?
AND WHY DO WE CARE?
HOW COULD IT IMPACT THE RACE
BETWEEN NOW AND NOVEMBER?
>> LET ME TELL YOU A LITTLE BIT
ABOUT ROBERT MERCER.
HE IS THE DAD.
HE DID NOT START OUT IN THE
WORLD TRYING TO MAKE A TON OF
MONEY.
HE WAS A COMPUTER PROGRAMMER AND
SPENT THE FIRST PART OF HIS
CAREER TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW
TO TEACH COMPUTERS TO USE
LANGUAGE.
IN HIS LATE 40'S, HE GOT INTO
THE HEDGE FUND WORLD AND BECAME
STAGGERINGLY SUCCESSFUL.
NOW HE HAS GOT A LOT OF MONEY
AND IS PUTTING THAT TO USE IN
POLITICS.
HE SEEMS TO HAVE SO MANY
TENDRILS INTO STEVE BANNON,
KELLYANNE CONWAY.
AND NOW THE HEAD OF THE TRUMP
CAMPAIGN.
CAN YOU DESCRIBE WHAT A FEW OF
THOSE ARE?
>> MR. MERCER HAS FOCUSED HIS
SPENDING ON THE CONSERVATIVE
WING OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY,
THE ANTIESTABLISHMENT TEA PARTY
ELEMENTS IN THE REPUBLICAN
PARTY.
TWO THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN HIS
CLOSEST ADVISORS HAVE BEEN STEVE
BANNON AND KELLYANNE CONWAY WERE
NOW TWO OF THE TOP PEOPLE IN THE
TRUMP CAMPAIGN.
BANNON WAS THE HEAD OF BREITBART
NEWS.
THE MERCERS, ROBERT MERCER IN
2011 INVESTED $2 MILLION IN
BREITBART NEWS WHEN IT WAS GOING
THROUGH FINANCIAL DIFFICULTIES.
AS FAR AS WE KNOW, HE STILL HAS
THAT STAKE.
HE IS KIND OF IN BUSINESS WITH
BANNON.
KELLYANNE CONWAY IS THE PERSON
THE FAMILY TURNED TO, TO RUN THE
SUPER PAC THEY WERE OPERATING
EARLIER IN THE CAMPAIGN TO
SUPPORT TED CRUZ'S RUN FOR THE
PRESIDENCY.
MERCER, BOTH ON,
MERCERS WERE ALL IN FOR TED
CRUZ.
THEY HAD SUPER PACS AND ALL
KINDS OF STUFF GOING ON.
HAVE THEY PIVOTED SMOOTHLY TO
TRUMP AND JUST SWITCHED HORSES
MIDSTREAM?
>> IT SURE SEEMS THAT WAY.
NOT ONLY THAT, BUT THEY SEEM TO
HAVE WASHED THEIR HANDS OF TED
CRUZ.
AFTER TED CRUZ GAVE THE
MEMORABLE SPEECH AT THE
REPUBLICAN CONVENTION WHERE HE
DID NOT ENDORSE DONALD TRUMP,
THEY PUT OUT WHAT I THINK WAS
THEIR FIRST EVER PUBLIC
STATEMENT.
THEY DO NOT TALK ABOUT THE
POLITICS.
THEY PUT OUT A STATEMENT SAYING
HE WAS WRONG, HE SHOULD HAVE
ENDORSED THE CANDIDATE, WE HAVE
GOT TO DEFEAT HILLARY CLINTON.
IT WOULD BE VERY SURPRISING IF
THEY EVER SEND ANOTHER DOLLAR
TED CRUZ'S WAY.
THIS IS THE FAMILY BIT AND
CRAWLED THE SUPER PACS
SUPPORTING HIM.
THEY SPENT $13.59 TRYING TO GET
TED CRUZ ELECTED PRESIDENT SO IT
WAS A STUNNING REVERSAL.
THEY HAVE BECOME STRONG
SUPPORTERS OF DONALD TRUMP.
MARGARET: PROBABLY NOT GREAT
NEWS FOR TED CRUZ.
DONORS ANDPUBLICAN
PEOPLE MAKE STUFF HAPPEN WATCH
THE MERCERS?
DO YOU THINK THEY WILL BE
WATCHING THE MORE?
>> TO SOME DEGREE, YES.
ANYBODY WHO SPENDS AS MUCH TIME
AND MONEY AS THE MERCERS DO, I
THINK PEOPLE PAY ATTENTION TO
THEM.
THERE IS AN IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THEM AND OTHER MEGA
DONORS YOU MIGHT THINK OF LIKE
THE KOCH BROTHERS OR PAUL
SINGER.
SOME DONORS TRY TO CREATE A
NETWORK OF LIKE-MINDED PEOPLE TO
DO PROJECTS TOGETHER AND RECRUIT
OTHER DONORS TO FOLLOW THEM.
HAVE NOT CREATED A
NETWORK OF DONORS BEHIND THEIR
OPERATIONS.
THEY ARE MUCH MORE DOING THEIR
OWN THINGS.
JOSHUA: THE MERCERS HAD A SUPER
PAC THAT SUPPORTED TED CRUZ.
A FEW WEEKS AGO AFTER CRUZ LEFT
THE RACE, THEY TURNED IT INTO
THE "CROOKED HILLARY" PAC.
THIS IS SUPPOSED TO BE A TRUMP
PAC.
DOES THE FACT THE MERCERS HAVE
THE SUPER PAC MEAN THEY CAN NO
WITHR LEGALLY COMMUNICATE
STEVE BANNON AND PEOPLE AT THE
TOP OF THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN?
>> THE LAW IS A LITTLE UP IN THE
AIR.
ESSENTIALLY THE PURPOSE OF THE
LAW IS TO TRY TO KEEP SOMEONE ON
THE CAMPAIGN FROM PRIVATELY
COMMUNICATING WHERE THEY NEED TO
RUN ADS OR WHAT MESSAGE THEY ARE
TRYING TO GET OUT TO A SUPER
PAC, AND THEN HAVE THE SUPER PAC
FOLLOW THOSE INSTRUCTIONS.
ANYTHING THE CAMPAIGN MIGHT DO
THAT IS PERCEIVED AS GIVING THE
SUPER PAC INSIGHT INTO THEIR
SECRET STRATEGY WOULD BE A
POTENTIAL LEGAL PROBLEM.
THAT, THERE ARE A
LOT OF THINGS YOU CAN DO AS LONG
AS YOU SWEAR UP AND DOWN YOUR
NOT TALKING ABOUT MESSAGING AND
STRATEGY.
JOSHUA: MERCER HAS BANKROLLED
WHAT SEEMS LIKE A YEARS LONG
EFFORT TO FIND AN ATTACK HILLARY
CLINTON.
HE DONATED MONEY TO THE
NONPROFIT THAT PRODUCED THE
"CLINTON CASH" BOOK.
I BELIEVE HIS DAUGHTER WAS A
BOARD MEMBER AT ONE POINT.
IS THIS A VICTORY AND
VINDICATION FOR MERCER AND HIS
VIEW OF HOW POLITICS SHOULD BE
CONDUCTED?
>> MERCER HAS ALWAYS BEEN -- HE
HAS NEVER BEEN A RIGHT DOWN THE
MIDDLE REPUBLICAN DONOR.
HE HAS ALWAYS BEEN, FROM TALKING
TO PEOPLE CLOSE TO HIM, VERY
MUCH OF THE VIEW THAT THE WHOLE
WASHINGTON SYSTEM IS CORRUPT AND
NEEDS TO BE UTTERLY REFORMED,
BOTH REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRAT.
CLINTON ISLARY
OBVIOUSLY PART OF THAT.
BUT HE HAS ALSO FUNDED A LOT OF
STUFF TO GO AFTER JEB BUSH OR
MORE MAINSTREAM REPUBLICANS.
JOSHUA: THANK YOU.
WHEN WE COME BACK, WE WILL TALK
WITH A "WASHINGTON POST"
REPORTER ABOUT THE LATEST IN
HILLARY LAND AFTER THIS.
♪
.
.
♪
♪
>> WE GO TO WORK BECAUSE
OTHERS DEPEND ON US.
HILLARY CLINTON GETS IT.
UNDER HER PLAN, WORKING PARENTS
GET RELIEF FROM THE COST OF
CHILDCARE AND A PATH TO
DEBT-FREE COLLEGE, EQUAL PAY FOR
WOMEN, AND PAID TIME OFF TO CARE
FOR FAMILIES.
BUILDING AN ECONOMY THAT WORKS
FOR EVERYONE, NOT JUST THOSE AT
THE TOP, BECAUSE WE ARE STRONGER
TOGETHER.
MARGARET: THAT WAS HILLARY
CLINTON 'S NEW TV AT, WHICH WILL
START RUNNING IN SEVEN
BATTLEGROUND STATES.
WE ARE SHIFTING GEARS WITH OUR
GUEST, A REPORTER FOR THE
"WASHINGTON POST" COVERING
HILLARY CLINTON AND TIM KAINE.
THANKS FOR COMING ON THE SHOW.
>> HAPPY TO BE HERE.
MARGARET: SO, YOU AND I ARE
SITTING HERE IN WASHINGTON.
HILLARY CLINTON IS NOT.
WHERE IS SHE?
>> HILLARY CLINTON IS, WE THINK,
OUT ON MARTHA'S VINEYARD
ALREADY, WHERE SHE WAS PLANNING
TO BE LATER THIS WEEKEND, BUT
SHE ENDED UP GOING EARLY.
IT IS BILL CLINTON'S BIRTHDAY.
THE DETAILS ARE SKETCHY, BUT WE
THINK SHE'S OUT THERE SOMETHING
BILL CLINTON'S BIRTHDAY.
JOSHUA: IS IT A SURPRISE PARTY?
WERE WE NOT SUPPOSED TO SAY?
[LAUGHTER]
MARGARET: WE WERE NOT INVITED.
JOSHUA: I GUESS EVERYTHING IS
SUPPOSED TO BE A SURPRISE.
DOES IT MATTER, WE HAVE DONALD
TRUMP DOWN IN LOUISIANA TODAY,
DOING PRESIDENTIAL THINGS, AND
WE FOUND OUT THIS AFTERNOON THAT
OBAMA WILL BE THERE ON TUESDAY
DURING PRESIDENTIAL THINGS.
DOES THAT PUT ANY PRESSURE ON
HILLARY CLINTON TO MAKE A TRIP
TO BATON ROUGE, TO SHOW THAT SHE
IS ALSO ON THE CASE?
ANNE: SURE.
IT SETS UP THE QUESTION, IF
TRUMP GOES, WOULD SHE GO?
LEERY OFHE WOULD BE
DOING SO, FOR FEAR OF LOOKING
OPPORTUNISTIC.
CERTAINLY THERE WAS CRITICISM OF
TRUMP BY THE DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR
FOR, AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY
THAT HE COULD INTERFERE WITH
EFFORTS THERE, OR MAKE, IN THE
GOVERNOR'S WORDS, MAKE A PHOTO
OP.
SHE WOULD BE LOATH TO DO THAT.
BUT CERTAINLY IT RAISES THE
QUESTION.
YOU WANT TO BE PRESIDENT OF THE
UNITED STATES, AND THIS IS
EXACTLY THE KIND OF THING THE
PRESIDENT IS EXPECTED TO DO,
EVEN IF IT MEANS INTERRUPTING
YOUR VACATION, SO WOULD SHE DO
IT OR NOT?
MARGARET: YOU KNOW, I AM STRUCK
BY THE IDEA THAT, EVEN THOUGH
TRUMP WOULD VERY MUCH LIKE TO
PUT THE HEAT ON HILLARY CLINTON,
THIS ENTIRE LAST WEEK HAS BEEN
ALL ABOUT FOCUSING ON DONALD
TRUMP.
HILLARY CLINTON AND JOE BIDEN
WERE IN SCRANTON EARLIER THIS
WEEK, WHERE WE BOTH WERE.
EVEN THEN, THE NEWS WAS
OVERTAKEN BY TRUMP, BUT NEGATIVE
NEWS ABOUT TRUMP.
CLINTON KIND OF IS LOOKING AT,
HOW MUCH DO I SIT BACK AND JUST
LET HIM SELF-DESTRUCT?
HAS BEEN A LARGE PART
OF THE CLINTON STRATEGY OVER THE
LAST 10 DAYS, TO JUST ORDER STAY
OUT OF HIS WAY.
MARGARET: WITH BANNING AND KELLY
-- BANNON AND KELLYANNE CONWAY,
IS THIS GOOD NEWS FOR THEM, BAD
NEWS FOR THEM?
ARE THEY WORRIED?
NOT THAT WORRIED?
ANNE: I THINK THE DEPARTURE OF
MANAFORT, FIRST SIDELINED, AND
THEN GONE, THE INITIAL READ FROM
INSIDE CLINTON WORLD ON THE
SHAKEUP WAS, WELL, THAT'S
CONFIRMATORY THAT THINGS ARE IN
A GIANT MESS OVER THERE, SO THEY
THOUGHT THAT WAS GOOD.
THE DEPARTURE OF MANAFORT IS A
BIT OF A WILDCARD, RIGHT?
ORWAS A TEMPERING INFLUENCE,
AT LEAST HE ATTEMPTED TO BE, AND
THEY REALLY DON'T KNOW WHAT TO
EXPECT NOW.
UNCERTAINTY IS NEVER A GOOD
THING.
A GUY LIKE BANNON IS SO
OUT OF LEFT FIELD.
HE HAS NO CAMPAIGN EXPERIENCE,
AND ALL HIS INVOLVEMENT IN
NATIONAL POLITICS HAS BEEN WITH
BREITBART NEWS, JUST THESE
OUTRAGEOUS ATTACKS THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED WHEN OUTSIDE THE
BOUNDS OF WHAT IS POLITICALLY
ACCEPTABLE A FEW YEARS AGO.
NOW I GUESS ANYTHING GOES.
IS THERE A WAY WITH BANNON
WHISPERING IN TRUMP'S EAR, THAT
HE COULD ERUPT IN A WAY WE HAD
NEVER SEEN BEFORE TOUR HILLARY
CLINTON?
ANNE: THAT'S WHAT I MEANT.
I THINK THEY FELT THEY COULD
DRAW SOME BOX, AS LONG AS
MANAFORT WAS IN THE PICTURE.
HE WOULD NOT LET TRUMP TO X,
WHATEVER X IS, AND THOSE LINES
ARE BASICALLY NOT THERE ANYMORE.
MARGARET: SO IF YOU ARE THE
CLINTON CAMPAIGN, AT LEAST WHAT
YOU SAY IN THE PUBLIC
POSTURE IS THAT THIS CHANGES
NOTHING, WE ALWAYS EXPECTED A
NASTY GUTTER CAMPAIGN, AND WE
ARE PREPARED FOR IT.
DO YOU THINK THEY ARE ACTUALLY
BEHIND-THE-SCENES CHANGING THE
GAME, STEPPING UP THE ATTACK
THIS GUARANTEE A
NASTIER RACE?
ANNE: THEY ARE NOT WRONG TO SAY
FROM THE BEGINNING, THEY
EXPECTED THERE TO BE A BLOODBATH
IN SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER, INTO
NOVEMBER, THAT IT WOULD BE
EXTREMELY NASTY.
AND THEY WOULD BE READY FOR
ANYTHING.
I MEAN, FROM MONICA LEWINSKY TO
WHATEVER.
HILLARY CLINTON KNOWS, IN THE
PROCESS OF RUNNING FOR OFFICE,
ALL THOSE THINGS WILL COME HER
WAY.
I THINK WHAT THEY DIDN'T PLAN
FOR WAS THE SORT OF COMPLETE,
UNPREDICTABILITY AND KIND OF,
YOU KNOW, IT'S BEYOND THE
QUESTION OF HOW DO THEY RESPOND.
IT'S A QUESTION OF, THEY HAVE
ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA WHAT THEY
MIGHT BE HIT WITH ON ANY DAY,
AND THAT THROWS PEOPLE OFF THEIR
FOOTING.
I THINK THERE IS DEFINITELY NOW
A SENSE, WITHIN A LOT OF THE
CLOSE CLINTON ADVISERS, THAT, I
MEAN, IT'S JUST BUCKLE UP.
THEY FIGURE IT'S GOING TO BE
EXTRAORDINARILY NASTY, AND
UNPLEASANT ON A DAY-TO-DAY
BASIS.
AND THAT SHE IS READY FOR IT.
I WILL SAY, I MEAN, SHE HAS
SHOWN THUS FAR A PRETTY SICK
SKIN.
SHE HAS -- PRETTY THICK SKIN.
SHE HAS NOT GOTTEN RATTLED OR
NASTY HERSELF IN PUBLIC, FOR
MANY MONTHS NOW, AND IF SHE IS
ABLE TO KEEP THAT UP, I THINK,
FROM THE CLINTON WORLD'S
PERSPECTIVE, THEY WILL CALL THAT
A SUCCESS.
SHE HAS HAD A LITTLE PRACTICE.
[LAUGHTER]
MARGARET: FAIR ENOUGH.
THANKS.
WHEN WE COME BACK, WE WILL TALK
ABOUT SOME OF TRUMP'S NEW
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE.
IF YOU ARE WATCHING US HERE IN
NOWINGTON, D.C., YOU CAN
LISTEN TO US ON THE RADIO AT
BLOOMBERG 99.1 FM.
WE WILL BE RIGHT BACK.
♪
♪
♪
>> IN HILLARY CLINTON'S AMERICA,
THE SYSTEM STAYS RIGGED AGAINST
AMERICANS.
SYRIAN REFUGEES FLOOD IN.
COLLECTING SOCIAL SECURITY
BENEFITS, SKIPPING THE LINE.
OUR BORDER OPENS, MORE OF THE
SAME, BUT WORSE.
DONALD TRUMP'S AMERICA IS
SECURE.
TERRORISTS AND DANGEROUS
CRIMINALS KEPT OUT.
THE BORDER SECURE.
OUR FAMILY SAFE.
CHANGE THAT MAKES AMERICA SAFE
AGAIN.
DONALD TRUMP FOR PRESIDENT.
JOSHUA: THAT WAS DONALD TRUMP'S
FIRST GENERAL ELECTION TV AD,
WHICH WILL BE AIRING IN OHIO,
PENNSYLVANIA, NORTH CAROLINA,
AND FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 10
DAYS.
JOINING US NOW TO TALK ABOUT
-- AD BUYERYER A
CAN GOLDSTEIN, A PROFESSOR OF
POLITICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
SAN FRANCISCO.
YOUR THOUGHTS?
KEN: AS I WAS WATCHING IT HERE,
MY COLLEAGUES WILL LOOK AT AN AD
AND TRY TO WORK SHIP -- WORKSHOP
IT, WHAT IS THE SECRET DOG
WHISTLE?
THERE IS NO DOG WHISTLE.
IT IS A TRAIN WHISTLE.
IT'S VERY OBVIOUS.
IMMIGRANTS, MEXICANS, POURING
OVER THE BORDER, AND HELICOPTERS
AND BORDER GUARDS GUARDING
AMERICANS.
WE DON'T HAVE TO GO INSIDE THE
ACTORS STUDIO TO FIND WHAT'S
GOING ON HERE.
VERY CLEAR MESSAGE.
JOSHUA: IS THIS A BIG AD BUY?
KEN: IT'S ACTUALLY NOT.
IT IS ONE FOURTH THE SIZE OF
JUST HILLARY CLINTON'S AD BUY
OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS, NOT TO
MENTION THE QUINTIN CAMPAIGN AND
PRIORITIES, USA HER SUPER PAC,
HAVE ALREADY SPENT MILLIONS THIS
SUMMER.
$5 MILLION VERSUS $150 MILLION
FOR THE SUMMER.
MARGARET: HOW MUCH DOES THE
TRUMP CAMPAIGN REALLY EVEN NEED
TO WORRY ABOUT AD SPENDING?
AREN'T THEY JUST GOING TO GET A
TON OF FREE MEDIA PLAY?
KEN: EXACTLY.
WE WILL ALL GET A THANK YOU
NOTE.
WHAT WILL WE BE TALKING ABOUT IN
10 DAYS?
THIS SPOT, IF THEY DO OTHER
SPOTS.
QUICK, NAME THREE HILLARY
CLINTON SPOTS.
YOU CAN'T THINK ABOUT THEM.
THERE'S $18 MILLION OF THEM,
AND HE IS GENERATING SO MUCH
FREE MEDIA.
MARGARET: LET'S LOOK AT THE
CLINTON CAMPAIGN'S AD SPENDING
AND WHAT IT TELLS US.
KEN: PENNSYLVANIA IS ON THE
BOARD, AS IS OHIO AND FLORIDA
AND NEVADA, BUT WHAT'S
INTERESTING TO ME ARE THE STATES
NOT ON THE BOARD FOR CLINTON AND
ON THE BOARD FOR -- NOT ON THE
BOARD FOR TRUMP, EITHER,
COLORADO AND VIRGINIA.
WE CONSIDER HERE IN FIGURE OUT
WHAT IS A BATTLEGROUND, WHAT IS
NOT A BATTLEGROUND.
WE KNOW NOW THAT COLORADO AND
VIRGINIA ARE NOT BATTLEGROUNDS,
BECAUSE NEITHER TRUMP OR CLINTON
ARE AIRING ADS THERE.
SHE IS UP IN PENNSYLVANIA.
WE WILL SEE IF SHE STAYS UP IN
PENNSYLVANIA, BUT FOR NOW
COLORADO AND VIRGINIA ARE OFF
THE BOARD.
JOSHUA: WHEN DO WE EXPECT THE
NEXT AD?
FROM TRUMP?
[LAUGHTER]
KEN: I AM DONE AND RETIRED FROM
THE PROTECTING WHAT TRUMP WILL
DO GAME, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT
COMES TO ADVERTISING.
THERE WAS A BIT OF A BATTLE IN
THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN ABOUT WHAT
THEIR FIRST CREATIVE WOULD BE.
GIVEN THE PREVIOUS CONVERSATION
YOU HAD HERE, ABOUT ONCE AGAIN
THE CHANGING OF THE GUARD IN THE
TRUMP CAMPAIGN, I WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANY LESS AGGRESSIVE
ADVERTISING, WHENEVER THAT SPOT
COMES.
JOSHUA: CERTAINLY DID NOT SEE
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM WHAT TRUMP
HAS BEEN TALKING ABOUT.
KEN GOLDSTEIN, THANK YOU.
UP NEXT, WE TAKE THE SHOW GLOBAL
WHEN WE COME BACK.
♪
♪
MR. TRUMP: HILLARY CLINTON WANTS
TO BE AMERICA'S ANGELA MERKEL.
[CROWD BOOS]
MR. TRUMP: BY THE WAY, FOR THE
PRICE OF SUPPORTING ONE REFUGEE
IN THE UNITED STATES, WE COULD
SUPPORT 12 IN A SAFE STONE IN
THE MIDDLE EAST OR, LET'S SAY,
SYRIA.
[APPLAUSE]
REFUGEEP: THE IMPROVED
SCREENING STANDARDS I HAVE
PROPOSED WILL SAVE COUNTLESS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS.
VETTING."ED "EXTREME
EXTREME VETTING.
MARGARET: WELCOME BACK.
THAT WAS DONALD TRUMP AT A RALLY
JUST A FEW MINUTES AGO, IN
MICHIGAN.
WE ARE JOINED BY TOM ROGAN, A
CONTRIBUTOR TO THE "NATIONAL
REVIEW."
THANKS FOR BEING HERE.
TOM: GOOD TO BE WITH YOU.
MARGARET: SO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT,
BUT LET'S START WITH TWO THINGS
REAL QUICK IN THE FOREIGN POLICY
WORLD.
THE IMAGE OF THE SYRIAN BOY.
HOW DOES THIS PLAY IN THE
CONTEXT OF THE ELECTION?
DOES THIS MAKE AMERICANS MORE
SYMPATHETIC TO THE PLIGHT OF
SYRIANS, SYRIAN REFUGEES, OR
DOES THIS GIVE DONALD TRUMP
AMMUNITION?
TOM: IN THE POLITICAL LEVEL,
ULTIMATELY THE SYRIAN REFUGEES
ARE SOMETHING THAT WILL HELP
TRUMP.
THE COUNTERPOINT, THOUGH, TO
THAT, IS TO SOME DEGREE IT
REPRESENTS AN INDICTMENT OF THE
PRESIDENT'S FOREIGN POLICY IN
THE SENSE OF ALEPPO AND RUSSIAN
ACTION.
SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW IT PLAYS OUT.
WHEN YOU GET TO NOVEMBER,
AGAIN, YOU WERE IN A PREVIOUS
SEGMENT TALKING ABOUT THE
HAMMERING ADS, TALKING ABOUT
IMMIGRATION, UNCONTROLLED.
BUT IN THE IMMEDIATE MOMENT IT
PULLS ON THE HEARTSTRINGS IN AN
OBVIOUS WAY.
MOST AMERICANS WOULD SAY, AND
THE CRITICAL ISSUE WILL BE, CAN
HILLARY CLINTON A REFUGEE
STRATEGY THAT ADDRESSES WOMEN
AND CHILDREN SPECIFICALLY?
IF YOU DO THAT, I THINK SHE CAN
REALLY KIND OF WIN THAT CENTER
GROUND FROM TRUMP, BECAUSE
PEOPLE, THE IMAGE SPEAKS FOR
ITSELF IN TERMS OF HOW HORRIFIC
IT IS.
MARGARET: A BIG FOREIGN POLICY
CHALLENGE THIS WEEK FOR
PRESIDENT OBAMA AND PERHAPS BY
EXTENSION HILLARY CLINTON, THIS
NEW REVELATION OF THE PLANE
LEAVING GENEVA WITH $400 MILLION
ON IT, IT COULD NOT TAKE OFF OR
LAND UNTIL THE AMERICANS HAD
BEEN RELEASED FROM IRAN AS PART
OF THE DEAL.
REPUBLICANS ARE SEIZING ON THIS
TO CALL THIS EXCHANGE, THE WHOLE
PROCESS, RANSOM, RANSOM PAYMENT.
DOES THIS TAKE HOLD?
DO MOST AMERICANS CARE?
OR HAVE A WRITTEN OFF THE IRAN
NUCLEAR DEAL AS SOMETHING TOO,
TO UNDERSTAND?
TOM: IT CREATES SOME DAMAGE TO
HILLARY, BUT THE GREAT STRENGTH
HILLARY CLINTON FUNCTIONALLY HAS
IS THAT THE REPUBLICAN
ESTABLISHMENT ON FOREIGN POLICY,
AS MUCH AS THEY ARE THE PEOPLE
WHO HAVE COME OUT VISIBLY,
BEHIND-THE-SCENES, THERE'S A
GREAT DEAL MORE PEOPLE WHO ARE
FRANKLY MORE PREDISPOSED TO MRS.
CLINTON DAN DONALD TRUMP -- A
THAN DONALDRUMP --
TRUMP.
BECAUSE OF MR. TRUMP'S
PERSPECTIVE WEAKNESSES WITH
REPUBLICANS, HE LOSES
OPPORTUNITY TO USE THAT, WHEREAS
OTHERWISE IT WOULD BE
POWERFUL.
JOSHUA: ON THE TOPIC OF DONALD
TRUMP'S POTENTIAL WEAKNESSES,
THE OTHER BIG STORY TODAY IS THE
DEPARTURE OF PAUL MANAFORT.
AND WE KNOW FROM OUR OWN
REPORTING INSIDE THE CAMPAIGN, A
LOT OF THAT WAS DRIVEN BY
MANAFORT'S INCREASINGLY
POLITICAL DANGEROUS TIES TO THE
FORMER UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT.
CAN YOU EXPLAIN TO ME, WHY THE
AP REVELATIONS THAT CAME OUT
YESTERDAY WERE SO SERIOUS ABOUT
PAUL MANAFORT, AND WHAT HE HAD
ACTUALLY DONE, LOBBYING-WISE IN
THE UNITED STATES?
TOM: FOR A COUPLE REASONS.
THE FIRST KEY REASON IS THE
CONNECTIVITY BETWEEN WHAT HE WAS
DOING AND THE RUSSIAN
GOVERNMENT.
JOSHUA: TELL US WHAT THIS
REVEALED.
WHAT DID IT SHOW HE WAS DOING?
TOM: IT SHOWED HE WAS
ESSENTIALLY IN A VERY LUCRATIVE
ENGAGEMENT WITH THE RUSSIAN
GOVERNMENT THROUGH THE
UKRAINIANS.
IF YOU DELVE INTO THE DETAILS OF
RUSSIAN ORGANIZED CRIME, THE
SYNERGY WITH THE KREMLIN,
BASICALLY MORE WILL COME OUT,
AND THAT'S THE TAKEAWAY.
THEY KNEW THAT.
THEY KNEW THEY HAD TO GET AHEAD
OF IT.
FRANKLY, I DON'T UNDERSTAND HOW,
IT SHOWS TO SOME AGREE -- DEGREE
THE AMATEURNESS OF THE CAMPAIGN
THAT THEY DID NOT SHOW THIS
EARLIER.
JOSHUA: MANAFORT IS KNOWN TO BE
AN OLD LOBBYING HAND, AND HE DID
NOT EVEN HAVE THE PROPER
REGISTRATION WITH THE FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT TO DO THIS.
WHAT SHOULD HE HAVE DONE?
TOM: HE SHOULD NOT HAVE JOINED
THE TRUNK CAMPAIGN, BECAUSE HE
SHOULD HAVE KNOWN THIS WOULD
COME OUT.
THIS IS STUFF THAT U.S.
INTELLIGENCE FOLLOWS.
AT SOME POINT, THIS WOULD
PROBABLY HAVE LEAKED.
I WONDER WHAT THE FBI IS LOOKING
AT.
JOSHUA: THE FACT HE WAS NOT EVEN
REGISTERED.
TOM COBURN BECAUSE OF THAT, IT'S
NOT JUST ABOUT -- TOM: BECAUSE
OF THAT, IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT
CORRUPT PRACTICES, BUT THE
SYNERGY WITH THE RUSSIAN
GOVERNMENT, THE COLD WAR THAT
NEVER ENDED.
I DON'T KNOWHAT,
HOW SOMEBODY HAS BEEN IN THE
BUSINESS AS LONG AS HE HAS
THOUGHT HE COULD PLAY THIS ONE.
MARGARET: WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF
AN AGENTTHAT TRUMP IS
OF THE RUSSIANS -- HAS HE
DEMONSTRATED THAT?
LOSING MANAFORT, DOES THAT HELP
HIM TO SHAKE THAT PERCEPTION?
OR DOES HE HAVE KIND OF ANOTHER
HURDLE?
THATTHE BUSINESS LINKS
QUITE FRANK WE HAVE NOT COME OUT
-- JOHN SCHINDLER, A FRIEND OF
MINE WHO IS BY NO MEANS A
CLINTON SUPPORTER, WRITING AT
THE OBSERVER, A LOT OF STUFF
ABOUT THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN AND
CONCERNS ON THE U.S.
INTELLIGENCE SIDE.
TRUMP'S DIFFICULTY HERE IS THAT,
BECAUSE HE HAS SAID SO MANY
THINGS ABOUT PUTIN, BECAUSE THE
RUSSIANS ARE CLEARLY ON HIS
SIDE, AND IT'S VERY VISIBLE IT
IS AN ORCHESTRATED CAMPAIGN --
THE RUSSIAN EQUIVALENT OF THE
NSA IS RUN UNDER PUTIN'S DIRECT
OFFICE, SO THERE IS A DEGREE OF
CONTROL FROM THE TOP, IN TERMS
OF THESE HACKS THROUGH
WIKILEAKS, WHICH IS THE
RUSSIANS, THAT HE IS, THAT THEY
WANT HIM THERE.
FUNCTIONALLY, I THINK HE DOES
AND THATN,
SELF-CONFIDENCE HE HAS, I DON'T
THINK HE WILL BACK AWAY FROM IT.
CAMPAIGN, WHAT WE
JUST TALKED ABOUT WITH THE
REPUBLICAN ESTABLISHMENT
CONCERNED ABOUT RUSSIA, HE'S
DANCING IN A MINEFIELD HERE, AND
THE CLINTON CAMPAIGN FROM THE
SIDELINES, I THINK, ARE ENJOYING
IT, BECAUSE IT WEAKENS HIM WITH
CORE CONSTITUENCIES ON THE
CONSERVATIVE RIGHT THAT QUITE
FRANKLY DO NOT LIKE CLINTON.
MARGARET: IN TERMS OF THE
WIKILEAKS, THE CONNECTIONS TO
RUSSIA, GIVE US A SENSE OF HOW
MOST AMERICAN VOTERS, ESPECIALLY
VOTERS IN THE MIDDLE, KIND OF
FEEL ABOUT WIKILEAKS IS A
PHENOMENON, AND HOW THAT MIGHT
SHAPE THEIR VOTING PROCLIVITIES?
TOM: LOOK, WE TALK ABOUT IT
PERHAPS MORE THAN PEOPLE ARE
CONCERNED ABOUT CORE ISSUES.
THAT'S WHERE THE TRUMP AD WAS A
GOOD AD, AT SMASHING PEOPLE OVER
THE HEAD AND GENERATING CONCERN.
THE PROBLEM HE HAS IS THAT BELOW
THE SURFACE, THE CONNECTION WITH
RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY,
ULTIMATELY THE IDEALS OF THAT.
VIRGINIA BEACH, ANOTHER EXAMPLE,
WITH MILITARY FAMILY SERVING THE
COUNTRY, THE IDEALS OF
DEMOCRACY.
THE ALEPPO BOY, WHERE THE
RUSSIANS ARE VERY HEAVILY
ENGAGED, DELIBERATELY KILLING
PEOPLE TO BUILD PRESSURE,
DELIBERATELY.
WHEN PEOPLE START SEEING THAT,
IF THERE'S CONNECTION POINTS ARE
DRAWN, WHICH THEY WILL BE
BECAUSE THEY SHOULD BE, THEN IT
BECOMES A PROBLEM FOR HIM.
JOSHUA: TRUMP IS NOT THE ONLY
ONE WITH CONCERNS WITH THE
RUSSIANS.
YOU MENTIONED WIKILEAKS.
WE HAVE ARTIE SEEN THE DAMAGE
THESE LEAKED E-MAILS HAVE DONE
POLITICALLY, CAUSING DEMOCRATIC
NATIONAL CHAIRWOMAN DEBBIE
WASSERMAN SCHULTZ, HER POSITION
AND THE EXPECTATION IS A LOT
MORE IS TO COME, AND THAT THE
RUSSIANS OR THE HACKERS OR
WHOEVER ARE HOLDING THEM UNTIL
AFTER LABOR DAY, IN THE FALL, AT
WHICH POINT THEY COULD REVEAL
THINGS THAT ARE DEEPLY
INCONVENIENT, OR WORSE, FOR
HILLARY CLINTON.
TOM: I THINK SO.
I SUSPECT THEY DO HAVE STUFF IN
THE SERVER.
BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF
SAFEGUARDS, AND BECAUSE OF HOW
AGGRESSIVE AND CAPABLE THE
RUSSIAN COLLECTION AGENCIES ARE,
THEY PROBABLY DO HAVE STUFF.
THE QUESTION IS HOW BAD IS IT,
AND ALSO TRUMP, IF THE POLLING
GAP THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
LAST COUPLE WEEKS SUSTAINS, I
WONDER WHETHER THE RUSSIANS
ACTUALLY, THEY MIGHT RETAIN IT,
AND IF THEY REALLY HAVE
SOMETHING, HOLD IT UNTIL AFTER
THE ELECTION.
THE WHOLE POINT IS WE ARE DOING
A WORLD OF HYPOTHETICALS, BUT
THE RUSSIANS WANT TRUMP.
IF THEY THINK CAN HAVE UTILITY
TOWARD ELECTING TRUMP, THEY WILL
USE IT.
IF THEY THINK IT IS A LOST
CAUSE, IF THEY THINK IT IS A
WASSERMAN SCHULTZ TYPE STUFF OR
SOMETHING THAT EMBARRASSES
CLINTON JUST FOR A COUPLE WEEKS,
THEY WON'T USE IT.
INTELLIGENCE BEHIND-THE-SCENES,
IN MORE THAN ANY OTHER ELECTION
IN OUR RECENT YEARS, THERE'S A
GREAT INTELLIGENCE GAME
OPERATING IN THE BACKDROP, SO WE
WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS.
MARGARET: DO YOU THINK WE WILL
SEE ANY REPUBLICAN FORMER
SECRETARIES OF STATE OR OTHER
LUMINARIES WHO HAVE NOT ALREADY
COME OUT NOW, STANDING IN FAVOR
OF HILLARY CLINTON TO FEND THIS
SORT OF THING OFF?
TOM: YES, I DO.
BECAUSE TRUMP WILL CONTINUE WHAT
HE'S DOING, AND WE HAVE SEEN
THIS WITH THE CAMPAIGN CHANGES,
AND ENDORSEMENT OF SELF.
PEOPLE LIKE BOB GATES, THAT
ARCHETYPAL REPUBLICAN REALIST
ESTABLISHMENT, NOT JUST NEOCON,
THAT IS WHAT WILL COME NEXT.
MARGARET: TOM ROGAN, THANK YOU
SO MUCH.
WE WILL BE HER BACK.
♪
♪
♪
TOHUA: GO
BLOOMBERGPOLITICS.COM NOW FOR
ALL THE LATEST ON THE ELECTION,
INCLUDING OUR DECODING OF THE
COMPLICATED WEB OF TRUMP WORLD.
COMING UP NEXT, EMILY CHANG'S
EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW WITH HUGO
BARRA.
WHAT YOU HAVE TO OFFER US TODAY?
RAMY: I AM RAMY INOCENCIO, AND
YOU ARE WATCHING "BLOOMBERG WEST
."
PRESIDENT OBAMA IS HEADING TO
FLOOD-RAVAGED LOUISIANA ON
TUESDAY.
AT LEAST 13 PEOPLE HAVE BEEN
-- HAVE DIED IN THE FLOODS,
AND THE PRESIDENT HAS BEEN
CRITICIZED FOR NOT WRAPPING UP
HIS VACATION EARLIER.
HE HAS SAID HE WANTS TO MAKE
SURE THAT HIS VISIT DOES NOT
INTERFERE WITH RESCUE EFFORTS.
THE WHITE HOUSE HAS ADMITTED
THAT A $400 MILLION PAYMENT TO
IRAN WAS CONTINGENT ON THE
RELEASE OF AMERICAN PRISONERS,
NOW BEING CRITICIZED BY
REPUBLICAN LAWMAKERS.
HOUSE SPEAKER PAUL RYAN ACCUSED
THE PRESIDENT OF MISLEADING THE
PUBLIC, AND DONALD TRUMP SAYS
OBAMA "OPENLY AND BLATANTLY LIED
ABOUT THE EXCHANGE."
TRUMP CAMPAIGN CHAIR PAUL
MANAFORT HAS STEPPED DOWN.
THE UNEXPECTED RESIGNATION COMES
AFTER THE CAMPAIGN ANNOUNCED A
MAJOR SHAKEUP, THE SECOND
LEADERSHIP RESHUFFLE IN TWO
MONTHS.
UNDERRT HAD ALSO COME
INCREASING SCRUTINY DUE TO HIS
PAST CONSULTING FOR THE FORMER
PRO-RUSSIAN PRESIDENT OF
UKRAINE.
THE DEATH TOLL FROM THE TERROR
ATTACK IN THE FRENCH
RESORT TOWN OF NICE IS NOW 86.
THE LATEST VICTIM HAD BEEN AT A
HOSPITAL, AND DIED FROM INJURIES
SUSTAINED DURING THE JULY 14
MASSACRE.
DOZENS MORE WERE INJURED WHEN A
TUNISIAN LIVING IN FRANCE DROVE
A TRUCK INTO A CROWD OF PEOPLE
CELEBRATING BASTILLE DAY.
ISLAMIC STATE CLAIMED
RESPONSIBILITY.
GLOBAL NEWS 24 HOURS A DAY -- I
AM RAMY INOCENCIO.
♪
♪
I AM EMILY CHANG, AND
THIS IS "BLOOMBERG WEST."
A DISAPPOINTMENT IN COURT FOR
UBER AFTER A CALIFORNIA JUDGE
REJECTED A SETTLEMENT WITH
DRIVERS.
DOES IT OPEN THE DOOR TO A
TRIAL?
ARE THERE ANY SILVER LININGS?
WE WILL DISCUSS.
AND IT COULD BE THE BIGGEST LEAK
AT THE NSA SINCE THE 2013
REVELATIONS OF EDWARD SNOWDEN.
WE WILL INTRODUCE YOU TO THE
"SHADOW BROKERS."
AND SIGNS THAT XIAOMI'S GRIP ON
THE CHINESE SMARTPHONE MARKET IS
SLIPPING.
WE WILL HEAR FROM VICE PRESIDENT
OF GLOBAL OPERATIONS HUGO BARRA
ABOUT THE OUTLOOK AT HOME AND
ABROAD.
FIRST TO OUR LEDE.
LYFT FAILS TO FIND A BUYER,
ACCORDING TO THE NEW YORK TIMES.
THEY HAVE BEEN SAID TO APPROACH
SEVERAL PARTIES ABOUT A SALE.
APPLE, GOOGLE, AMAZON, UBER, AND
DIDI, ALTHOUGH THE MOST SERIOUS
CONVERSATION HAPPENED WITH
GENERAL MOTORS.
ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOT IN
IMMEDIATE DANGER OF CLOSING, ONE
SOURCE SAID THEY ARE
UNPROFITABLE BUT THEY HAD A CASH
CUSHION OF $1.4 BILLION.
THIS COMES AFTER A REPORT THAT
LYFT REBUFFED A TAKEOVER OFFER
FROM GM.
WE ARE HERE WITH BRAD STONE AND
JOEL ROSENBLATT.
I WANT TO START WITH YOU, BRAD.
WHAT IS YOUR ANALYSIS OF LYFT,
TRYING AND FAILING TO SELL
ITSELF, TO A LOT OF DIFFERENT
COMPANIES, INCLUDING THE
ARCHRIVAL?
BRAD: NOT A GREAT REPORT FOR
LYFT, BUT IT HAS BEEN A GREAT
MONTH FOR UBER.
THEY DID DEAL IN CHINA WITH
DIDI, AND THIS WEEK THEY
ANNOUNCED THE ROLLOUT OF THE
AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE PROGRAM IN
PITTSBURGH.
LYFT IS CHALLENGED.
THERE'S A LOT OF AMBIGUITY
AROUND ITS BUSINESS.
CAN IT BE A PROFITABLE NUMBER
TWO IN THE U.S.?
WHAT DOES THE MARKET LOOK LIKE
WHEN COMPANIES HAVE TO GET INTO
PROFITABILITY AND THEY CAN'T
KEEP SINKING MONEY INTO
DISCOUNTS?
WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY AROUND
THE REAL STRENGTH OF THE
BUSINESS, IT'S NOT SURPRISING
BUYERS WOULD BE HESITANT.
THAT'S NOT TO SAY THEY WILL NOT
BE INTEREST FOR LYFT DOWN THE
ROAD, BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
QUESTIONS.
EMILY: LYFT DID HAVE A GLOBAL
ALLIANCE WITH DIDI IN OTHER
PLACES.
: IT'S A GREAT LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY.
THE CEO OF DIDI NOW SITS ON
UBER'SUBER'S BOARD.
SO LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT
WHETHER LYFT, IF THAT ALLIANCE
IS STILL IN PLAY AND IF IT WILL
IMPACT THE BUSINESS.
EMILY: LET'S TALK MORE ABOUT THE
LAWSUIT.
WE GOT THE NEWS YESTERDAY, BUT
WE ARE TRYING TO DIGEST WHAT
THIS MEANS FOR UBER.
A JUDGE, JOEL, HAS REJECTED A
$100 MILLION SETTLEMENT THAT
UBER STRUCK WITH DRIVERS OVER A
CLASS-ACTION SUIT IN CALIFORNIA.
HOW BIG OF A BLOW IS THIS TO
UBER?
JOEL: IT IS NOT A BLOW, BECAUSE
IN FACT, THERE'S SOME
INDICATIONS TO ME THAT UBER WAS
AGITATING FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.
THE REASON IT IS NOT A BLOW IS
BECAUSE, AFTER THEY MADE THE
SETTLEMENT, THE NINTH CIRCUIT
AGREED TO HEAR UBER'S ARGUMENTS
THAT ITS ARBITRATION CLAUSE
SHOULD APPLY TO ITS DRIVERS, SO
NOW THEY CAN BET ON THIS RULING,
WHICH SEEMS TO BE FORTHCOMING,
IT'S NOT A SURE THING, BUT THEY
ARE BETTING THE NINTH CIRCUIT
WILL UPHOLD THE ARBITRATION
CLAUSE, PUSHING ALL THESE
DRIVERS INTO PRIVATE ONE-ON-ONE
ARBITRATIONS AND DECIMATING THE
CLASS-ACTION.
LET ME ADD TO THAT.
THE BIG LEGAL STORY, AS I
UNDERSTAND IT, IS THIS PROBABLY
DECADES-LONG TREND IN THE U.S.
COURTS TO LIMIT THE RIGHTS OF
WORKERS TO ORGANIZE AND SUE
COMPANIES AS CLASS ACTIONS, AND
WHAT COMPANIES HAVE BEEN DOING
IS ESTABLISHING ARBITRATION
CLAUSES WITH NOT ONLY EMPLOYEES,
BUT ALSO CUSTOMERS, AND SAYING
IF YOU HAVE A COMPLAINT, YOU
HAVE TO TAKE IT UP WITH THE
COMPANY IN PRIVATE ARBITRATION.
COURTS OVER AND OVER HAVE BEEN
APPLAUDING THESE RULES, AND THE
REASON, MY SENSE IS THE REASON
THAT THE DRIVERS' ATTORNEYS
SETTLED WAS THAT THE NINTH
CIRCUIT HERE IN SAN FRANCISCO,
THE FEDERAL COURT OF APPEALS,
WAS INDICATING THEY WERE GOING
TO BASICALLY DISSOLVE THE
CLASS-ACTION, IN WHICH CASE YOU
DON'T HAVE 400,000 DRIVERS, YOU
HAVE SOMETHING LIKE A THOUSAND
PEOPLE, DRIVERS SAVVY ENOUGH TO
OPT OUT AND NOT SIGN THE
ARBITRATION CLAUSE.
SO THE SETTLEMENT FALLS APART,
BUT OVER, LIKE ALL COMPANIES --
UBER, LIKE ALL THE COMPANIES,
STILL HOLDS THE UPPER HAND,
BECAUSE IT'S AMBIGUOUS WHETHER
DRIVERS ARE EVEN ALLOWED TO SUE
THEM IN THIS WAY.
JOEL: I THINK THAT'S RIGHT.
I THINK THERE IS A LITTLE
WRINKLE IN THIS CASE THAT POSES
POTENTIALLY A VERY BIG THREAT
FOR UBER, WHICH IS THAT WHATEVER
THE NINTH CIRCUIT RULES DOESN'T
APPLY TO LAWSUITS IN STATE COURT
UNDER A SPECIAL LAW, UNIQUE TO
CALIFORNIA, IN WHICH THEY, THE
DRIVERS COULD BRING SUBSTANTIAL
PENALTIES, VERY BIG PENALTIES
UNDER LABOR LAWS.
SO, THE SPRING COURT, IF THEY
WERE TO TAKE THIS OUT, THAT
WOULD APPLY TO THESE DRIVERS,
BUT THE NINTH CIRCUIT RULING
DOES NOT DO THE JOB FOR UBER.
THIS SETTLEMENT FALLING APART
OPENS THE BOX, KIND OF RIPS THE
LID OFF OF A BUNCH OF LAWSUITS
IN STATE COURTS, WHERE THE CASES
CAN GO FORWARD AND CAUSE A
PROBLEM.
EMILY: SO THE BEST CASE SCENARIO
FOR UBER, THIS MEANS DRIVERS
CANNOT SUE AS A CLASS ACTION,
AND WOULD HAVE TO SUE THEM
ONE-ON-ONE?
JOEL: WE ARE NOT THERE YET, BUT
THAT'S THE BEST CASE SCENARIO.
EMILY: THE WORST CASE FOR UBER,
THE SETTLEMENT IS BILLIONS AND
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, BECAUSE THE
REASON THE JUDGE REJECTED THE
LAWSUIT, HE SAID THE AMOUNT YOU
WOULD HAVE TO PAY IN REALITY
IS FAR GREATER THAN THIS.
JOEL: AND THEN THE APPEALS COURT
SOMEHOW DOES NOT OVERTURN THE
DISTRICT COURT'S RULING THAT THE
TOGETHER,N'T BAND
THEN YOU HAVE THESE -- CAN BAND
TOGETHER, AND THE NEW HAVE THIS
POTENTIAL MULTIBILLION-DOLLAR
SETTLEMENT.
BUT HISTORY IS NOT ON THE SIDE
OF THE DRIVERS.
EVEN IN THE CASE OF FEDERAL
EXPRESS, WHICH JOEL MIGHT HAVE A
BETTER UNDERSTANDING, IT WENT
THROUGH THIS WITH ITS DRIVERS
WHICH ARE ALSO CLASSIFIED AS
CONTRACTORS, AND THE PLAINTIFF
ATTORNEYS WON THAT CASE BUT
THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CHANGE.
THEY CHANGED A FEW THINGS.
FEDEX DRIVERS ARE STILL
CONTRACTORS.
NOT MUCH CHANGED.
EMILY: THEY CERTAINLY DON'T GET
TIPS.
BRAD STONE, YOU WILL JOIN ME A
LITTLE LATER IN THE SHOW.
JOEL ROSENBLATT, OUR LEGAL
REPORTER, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR
BREAKING DOWN THIS VERY COMPLEX
STORY.
MORE ABOUT UBER, MAKING PLENTY
OF OTHER NEWS THIS WEEK.
ON THURSDAY IT LAUNCHED IT IS --
IT LAUNCHED AN AUTONOMOUS CAR
PILOT IN PITTSBURGH, BEATING OUT
THE AUTOMAKERS AND MAJOR TECH
PLAYERS LIKE GOOGLE AND APPLE.
WE WILL HEAR FROM ONE INVESTOR
WHO HAS HAD A LOT OF -- A LONG
RELATIONSHIP WITH UBER.
DAVID COHEN WAS PART OF UBER'S
ANGEL ROUND BEFORE THEY HAD A
SICKLE CAR ON THE ROAD.
CAROLINE: THE START OF
ACCELERATOR AND DEVELOPMENT
PROGRAM HAS BEEN HERE IN BERLIN
FOR MORE THAN A YEAR NOW.
FOUNDER C --
DAVIDO COHEN, THE FOUNDER,
WAS STOPPING TO THE CITY AND
TOLD US SOME WISE WORDS HE TELLS
TO ENTREPRENEURS IN GERMANY, AND
ALSO ABOUT A VERY SAVVY
INVESTMENT HE MADE YEARS AGO.
DAVID: I WAS TALKING TO THE
COMPANIES.
SEVERAL OF THEM WERE PRACTICING
THEIR PITCH, TALKING ABOUT WHAT
THEY DO, VERY GERMAN-SPECIFIC.
I TELL THEM, YOU ARE A PLAYER ON
THE WORLD STAGE, YOU KNOW.
THIS MAY BE WHERE YOU ARE
STARTING, BUT YOU NEED TO, FRAME
DIVISION AS A GLOBAL VISION.
WHAT YOU ARE DOING MATTERS.
YOU ARE NOT JUST COMPETING IN
ONE LOCAL MARKET, ONE LOCAL
LANGUAGE.
SO THEY WILL PROBABLY SAY, IT IS
WEBSITE DOT DE, BUT I SAY IT IS
JUST WEBSITE.
IT'S A MENTALITY THAT YOU ARE IN
THE ENVIRONMENT IN GERMANY ALL
THE TIME, AND THAT'S WHAT YOU
ARE THINKING ABOUT, BUT IN ORDER
TO BE TRULY COMPETITIVE, WE
TEACH THEM TO THINK MORE
GLOBALLY.
THAT'S ONE THING THAT I NOTICED.
CAROLINE: IS THAT RELEVANT
WITHIN THE UNITED STATES?
DAVID: THE U.S. IS A BIG MARKET,
SO A LOT OF PEOPLE, BY
COMPARISON, IT IS MORE REACH.
SO PEOPLE ASSUME, WHEN THEY HEAR
A PITCH IN THE U.S., THAT IT IS
A GLOBAL COMPANY TO BEGIN WITH.
WHEN I FIRST HEARD THE UBER
PITCH, WHERE I AM A SUPER EARLY
INVESTOR, IT WAS FOCUSED ON SAN
FRANCISCO, BUT YOU KNEW THAT THE
ASPIRATION WAS ALWAYS GLOBAL.
IT IS SORT OF IN THE LANGUAGE,
AND YOU HEAR IT IN SUBTLE WAYS,
AND HERE IT IS THE OPPOSITE.
MAYBE SOMETIMES YOU HAVE TOO
MUCH MARKET FOCUS ON ONE
COUNTRY, ONE LANGUAGE, ONE
REGION, AND YOU TRY TO COACH
THAT OUT OF THEM.
CAROLINE: YOU SAY THE HOTTEST
DEAL IS NOT ALWAYS THE BEST
DEAL.
IS UBER STILL A GREAT
INVESTMENT?
DAVID: IF YOU ARE INVESTING
TODAY, NO IDEA.
IF YOU WERE INVESTING WHEN I DID
IN THE ANGEL ROUND, GOOD DEAL.
YOU NEVER KNOW, BUT SO FAR, SO
GOOD.
IT WAS NOT A HOT DEAL WHEN I
INVESTED IN IT.
RYAN GRAVES, WHO I MET EARLY ON,
THE FIRST EMPLOYEE, WAS
RS AND THEYT TECHSTAE
DID NOT HAVE ANY CARS ON THE
ROAD, IT WAS JUST AN IDEA, BUT
YOU WERE EXCITED BY THE PEOPLE
AND THE VISION.
IT DIDN'T SEEM ANY BETTER THAN
ANY OF THE OTHER INVESTMENTS ARE
MADE THE DAY I MADE THEM, SO I
WAS JUST FORTUNATE TO BE
INVOLVED.
CAROLINE: WHEN YOU LOOK AT HOW
UBER IS TRYING TO NAVIGATE THESE
MARKETS, THE REGULATORY
ENVIRONMENT, WHAT CAN EUROPE DO?
IS EUROPE LISTENING?
IS THE REGULATION PLAYING BALL?
AND ARE ALREADY IN BERLIN,
HAVING SOME PUSHBACK AGAINST
UBER, AGAINST AIRBNB.
DAVID: WHEN I CAME HERE, I ENDED
UP IN A TAXI, BUT IT WAS AN UBER
TAXI, SO AT LEAST THEY ARE ON
THE PLATFORM.
THEREFORE, IT'S A LITTLE MORE
CHALLENGING TO GET AROUND HERE.
SOME OF YOU KNOW THAT
THE CUSTOMS -- FOR US, COMING
HERE EVEN AS AN EXAMPLE, WE HAVE
SPENT MORE ON DEALING WITH THE
CUSTOMS OF THE LEGAL, RIGHT,
THEN WE HAVE ANYWHERE ELSE IN
THE WORLD.
WE ARE IN A LOT OF PLACES IN THE
WORLD.
SO JUST THE PROCESSES IN PLACE.
I DON'T THINK IT'S INTENTIONAL.
IT IS JUST AN ARTIFACT OF HOW
THE SYSTEMS DEVELOPED, BUT IT
SURE FEELS SOME THINGS COULD BE
SIMPLE FIGHT TO SUPPORT BUSINESS
THAT WANTS TO BE HERE.
CAROLINE: DOES THAT TAKE THE
BUSINESSES, AS UBER IS, AS OTHER
LOCAL COMPANIES ARE, GOING OUT
AND SPEAKING AND LOBBYING?
DAVID: THAT ENDS UP HAPPENING.
ONE OF THE REASONS IT OVER
RAISED SO MUCH MONEY IS TO BE
ABLE TO GO OUT AND CONVINCE
PEOPLE THAT THIS IS SAFER, THIS
IS BETTER, AND ANYONE WHO HAS
USED THE SERVICE KNOWS IT IS.
HERE AND IN THE U K, YOU HAVE A
VERY GOOD TAXI SYSTEM ALREADY,
SO IT SORT OF WORKS.
IT'S JUST HARD TO MANAGE AS AN
AND USER.
YOU END UP CALLING AROUND.
SO IT'S A GREAT INNOVATION TO
HAVE THE ABILITY TO DO IT ON
DEMAND LIKE THAT.
BUT I THINK YOU WILL BE ABLE TO
SEE A LOT OF MONEY POURED INTO
CONVINCING THE WORLD THIS IS A
GOOD THING.
CAROLINE: SHOULD GO PUBLIC THIS
YEAR?
DAVID: I DOUBT IT WILL.
WHO AM I TO SAY WHAT IT SHOULD
DO?
IT WOULD BE NICE TO HAVE SOME
LIQUIDITY FROM GETTING SO LUCKY
WITH THE EARLY INVESTMENT.
I'M SURE A LOT OF PEOPLE FEEL
THAT WAY.
IT'S A VERY SUBSTANTIAL COMPANY
NOW, BUT A LOT OF PEOPLE FEEL IT
STILL HAS UPSIDE, AND OBVIOUSLY
A LOT OF MONEY IS BEING
POURED INTO IT.
CAROLINE: WHAT WAS ONE COMPANY
YOU WISH YOU HAD HAD AS A
TECHSTAR COMPANY OR ARE THE
PROUDEST THAT IT HAS BEEN A
TECHSTAR COMPANIES?
DAVID: THERE ARE SO MANY
COMPANIES YOU ARE EXCITED TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH, COMPANIES THAT
WILL HOPEFULLY EVENTUALLY THE
MULTIBILLION-DOLLAR PUBLIC
COMPANIES.
DIGITAL OCEAN, CLASS PASS,
THERE'S JUST SO MANY.
BB-8 IN THE "STAR WARS" MOVIE,
THAT CAME OUT OF TECHSTARS.
HUGE GROWTH.
WOULD HAVE BEEN GREAT IF UBER
WENT THROUGH OUR ACCELERATOR.
WE WERE ABLE TO INVEST IN IT
THROUGH OUR EARLY VENTURE FUND,
BUT WE ARE JUST THRILLED TO BE
INVOLVED WITH SO MANY GREAT
COMPANIES THAT CHANGE THE WORLD
AND MAKE IT A BETTER PLACE.
EMILY: CAROLINE HYDE, SPEAKING
WITH TECHSTARS COFOUNDER DAVID
COHEN.
UBER HAS BEEN EXCEPTIONAL FOR A
FEW REASONS.
THE MEGA VALUATIONS.
TAKEOVER OFDI'S
CHINA OPERATIONS, THEY NOW SHARE
A INVESTOR WITH THEIR BIGGEST
RIVAL.
THAT IS A RARE PHENOMENON, AS
INVESTORS GENERALLY DO NOT BACK
COMPETING STARTUPS.
LET'S TAKE A LOOK.
>> RIDE HAILING HAS SEEN
EXPLOSIVE GROWTH IN RECENT
YEARS, MAKING IT ONE OF THE MOST
LUCRATIVE SEGMENTS IN THE TECH
STARTUP SPACE.
TOGETHER, THE FIVE BIGGEST RIDE
HALOS ARE VALUED AT 115 BILLION
DOLLARS.
BY NOW, ALL KINDS OF BACKERS
HAVE A SLICE OF THE RIDE HAILING
HIGH, EVEN -- PIE, EVEN
NONTRADITIONAL INVESTORS LIKE
TOYOTA, GENERAL MOTORS, AND
APPLE,.
BUT A SMALL GROUP OF 15
INVESTORS ARE IN REALLY DEEP
WITH NOT ONE, BUT SEVERAL STAKES
IN THE BIGGEST RIDE HAILERS.
SOFTBANK HAS INVESTED IN
INDIA, SOUTHEAST ASIA, AND THE
LEADING RIDE HAILER IN CHINA.
ANOTHER HEDGE FUND HAS STAKES IN
DIDI AND LYFT.
AND DIDI NOW HAS BEEN INTEREST
HAILER, MAJOR RIDE
INCLUDING ITS BIGGEST
COMPETITION, UBER.
SOME OF THIS WAS AN ATTEMPT TO
FIGHT BACK AGAINST THE DOMINANCE
OF UBER, WHO OPERATE IN 76
COUNTRIES, LENDING FIREPOWER TO
RIVALS IN REGIONAL MARKETS.
WHY DOES IT MATTER?
WE KNOW THE RECENT SALE OF
UBER'S BUSINESS IN CHINA WAS
FIRST EXPLORED BY INVESTORS WHO
WANTED A TRUCE WITH DIDI IN THAT
MARKET, AND NOW AFTER THAT
MULTIBILLION-DOLLAR DEAL, THE
GLOBAL DYNAMICS OF THE RIDE
HAILING MARKET ARE IN FLUX, AND
INVESTORS COULD SEE COMPETING
INTERESTS CLASH AND THERE COULD
BE MORE CONSOLIDATION.
CAN UBER STILL WIN BIG IF IT IS
SHARING INVESTORS WITH ITS
RIVALS?
IT COULD BEG UP,
THE BIGGEST, MOST DANGEROUS NSA
LEAK SINCE EDWARDS NOTED'S NASA
DISCLOSURE IN 20 -- EDWARD
SNOWDEN'S MASSIVE DISCLOSURE IN
2013.
WE GO TO WASHINGTON NEXT.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪