this coin in the air, you guys call it in the air. If you’re right I give you the

我把這個硬幣拋到空中，你猜猜看是哪面 如果你猜對，十塊就是你的

ten dollars. If you’re wrong you give me ten dollars. I saw that coming. That’s not

如果你猜錯，那你就要給我十塊 這對我而言沒有勝算

a good bet for me. I guess in principle I don’t agree with the idea of betting. Okay, okay.

我原則上不贊成賭博這件事情 好，好

But what if we just use this as like an allegory for life. You know, it’s not really about

那如果我們把這個當成是一種人生的寓言 它不是真的跟錢有關

money and betting on a coin, it’s more about our approach to risk. Okay, and my approach

也不是打賭硬幣的正反面 它跟我們承擔風險的意願有關

to risk is obviously a lot less than yours. You wouldn’t do this bet? No, no. No, I

我願意承擔的風險明顯比你少很多 你不想要打賭嗎？不不不

don’t have ten bucks. My gut says don’t bet. Why is that? Because at the moment I

我連十塊都沒有，而且直覺告訴我不要賭 為什麼？

have ten dollars and later I might not. So people are passing up the opportunity to win

因為現在我有十塊，但是等一下就不一定了 所以人們就會錯過他們贏錢的機會

ten dollars of my money. But it kind of makes sense because they have to risk ten dollars

但這也合理，因為他們必須承擔十塊的風險

of their money and it’s a 50/50 chance, so really the bet has zero value. What if

而且這機率是一半一半 所以實際上這個打賭的期望值是零

I sweeten the deal? What if I put up twelve dollars to your ten? You only stand to lose

那如果，我提昇打賭的籌碼呢？ 如果我加碼到十二塊？你一樣只會輸十塊

ten. You stand to gain twelve. How’s that sound? I wouldn’t. I still wouldn’t bet.

你可以贏十二塊 這聽起來如何？我不要，我還是不要賭

I feel like I’m better off just leaving it as it is. I’ll offer you 15 dollars.

我覺得我還是維持原狀比較好 不然再加碼到十五塊如何

You only have to put up 10. I’m putting up 15. No. I’m offering you an extra five

你還是一樣頂多輸十塊 我加碼到十五塊，額外多了五塊

dollars. Why not? I’m not giving my 10 dollars away. What about 20? That’s as high as I’m

為何不要？我不要輸掉我的十塊 那二十塊怎麼樣？這是本日最高了

going today. Twenty dollars that is the top. It’s two to one. I just don’t like taking

二十塊，最高價 這是二比一了

that much risk. You don’t like risking ten bucks? Sure. I’m valuing my 10 dollars,

我只是不想承擔那麼多風險 你不喜歡加碼嗎？當然喜歡啊

I am. But why don’t you value my 20 dollars which you’ve got a 50 percent chance of right

但我的十塊...那你怎麼不去想我的二十塊？ 如果你決定打賭，你有五成的機率獲勝

here if you accept the bet. I don’t know. I can’t tell you. It’s not like a, I don’t

我不知道，我無法說明 這不像...

know what the logical reason is for why I want that. I don’t know. I can’t be, I

我不知道邏輯上的理由，為什麼我要打賭 我不知道，我不要打賭

just feel it’s not right. Now this does’t make sense. I’ve offered people up to 20

我只是覺得這樣不對 現在這樣就不合理了

dollars and they’re still refusing to take the bet. Well the bet is objectively in their

我給他們加碼到二十塊，而他們一樣拒絕這個賭博 這個賭博已經對他們非常有利了

favor. I mean a 50% of winning 20 plus a 50% chance of losing 10 still gives the bet an

五成的機率贏二十塊加上五成的機率輸十塊 期望值仍然有正的五塊

overall value of 5 dollars. Why is it that you won’t go for this bet? I don’t know.

為什麼你依然不要進行這個賭博？ 我不知道

Because I don’t want to lose 10 dollars just because of that easily. I know but you

因為我不想要輸十塊，就這麼簡單 我知道

could win twenty dollars. Think about the gain. Well, I don’t know. I’m thinking

但是你也有可能會贏二十塊，想想你會得到的好處 痾，我不知道

more about what I lose than what I win. I think. I think that’s exactly the point.

我覺得我對失去的東西會想比較多 我覺得這是重點

Because we feel losses more than we feel gains. There’s an asymmetry in the way people perceive

因為我們對於「失去」的感受會比我們「得到」來得強烈 這兩者之間是不對稱的

gains and losses. Losses are felt much more intensely. In fact psychology most people

人們對於失去的感受往往很強烈 事實上，在心理學中大多數的人

weight a loss around twice as heavily as a gain. But this varies from person to person.

「失去」的感受大概是與「得到」的兩倍 但這這因人而異

What if I go to 30 dollars? I said, even if you had 50 I would still feel the same way.

那如果我加碼到三十塊呢？ 我是覺得啦，即使你加碼到五十塊，我的感受還是一樣

Fifty dollars to 10 dollars that would be a reasonable. That’s when you would say

五十塊對十塊，這比較合理一些 這樣你就會同意嗎？

yes? Possibly, yes. You’re gonna have to give me like a hundred. But I lose ten. This

應該會吧 可能要讓我贏的時候有一百塊，但輸十塊

is known as loss aversion. To avoid risking a loss, people will pass up even very favorable

這就是所謂的「損失趨避」 避開損失的風險，人們往往會錯過即使是非常划算的賭博

bets. But is there a way to overcome our oversensitivity to losses? Let me ask you this. What if I

但有沒有方法可以克服這種不理性的情形呢？ 這麼說好了

offered to do this ten times in a row? Same deal, 20 dollars for your ten, flipping this

如果我們連賭十次呢？一樣的條件 二十塊對十塊，擲硬幣

coin? But then I would be losing 10 dollars each time wouldn’t I? You might be, you’d

但我就有可能每次都輸十塊嗎？ 你可能會，但是

be risking 10 dollars each time, but you know that this is 50/50 and you know that I’m

每次都承擔十塊的風險，你知道機率是一半一半 而且你知道我會

giving you ten chances. Is that a better deal, to do it repeatedly? I don’t think so. What

給你十次機會 重複執行多次一點會是更好的選擇嗎？我覺得不是

about a hundred times? I don’t think so. It doesn’t get better? No. If we played

那如果一百次呢？我覺得不是 這樣沒有比較好嗎？沒有

enough and I had enough of you know of a stake of 10 dollars then eventually yes I would

如果我們玩的夠多次，然後也有足夠的籌碼 那最後我確實會贏更多的錢

make more money yes. So why does repeating the same bet change it? I don’t think there’s

所以為何重複的進行這個賭博就會有所改變？ 我覺得這個背後

a rational thought behind it, it’s just a feeling that one gets when presented with

沒有一個理性的思維 只是覺得總會贏

the opportunity. I don’t know. I think there is a rational reason behind it. Is it? Yeah.

我不知道，我覺得應該有一個合理的理由 有嗎？有

Because the coin is going to be 50/50. You don’t know on one toss, you’re only going

因為這個硬幣正反面的機率各是一半一半 你不知道擲一次的結果，你只會

to get one outcome. But in a hundred tosses, you know that it’s going to be somewhere

得到一個正面或反面 但你擲一百次之後，你知道正面反面的次數

between like 45 and 55 times it’s going to go your way, 45 to 55 times it’s going

可能會在45到55次之間，可能你會贏45次到55次

to go my way. Right? The point is, every time it goes your way, you win twice as much as

也可能輸45到55次，對吧？ 重點是，你只要贏就會贏兩倍的錢

you lose when it goes my way. So the point is, doing it a hundred times you’re basically

所以重點是，當重複做一百次的時候 基本上可以保證

guaranteed to win money. More chances. No no, it’s not more chances of winning, it

你可以贏錢。有更大的機率會贏 不不，不是更大的機率會贏

is you are guaranteed to win money. In fact, the expected value of a hundred of these bets

是你可以保證會贏錢 事實上賭一百次的期望值

is a win of 500 dollars. And there’s only a one in 2300 chance of losing any money at

是贏500塊 而你輸錢的機率僅僅是1/2300

all. So even if you weight losses twice as much as gains, a hundred bets is indisputably

所以即使你覺得「失去」大概等於「得到」的兩倍 一百次的賭博毫無疑問對你而言是有利的

favorable. So here’s the thing, how do you accept a hundred of these bets if you won’t

所以，如果你一開始就不接受賭博 你怎麼可能會有

first accept one of those bets? This experiment is not about gambling. It’s not to encourage

後面這一百次的賭博？ 這個實驗其實與賭博無關，也不是要

you to go to the casino where the odds are definitely stacked against you. Instead, it

叫大家快點去賭場，它們只會害你輸錢 這實驗其實是個暗示

is a metaphor for all the little risks and opportunities that come our way in our lives.

各種風險和機會常常在我們的生活周遭出現

I mean if you view each one as an independent event, you will often say no to even very

我是說如果你把每個都視為獨立事件的話 你可能常常對

good bets because you’re afraid of the loss. So if instead you can see each little bet

一些很有利的賭博說不，因為你害怕失去 所以如果你能把這些賭博視為

as one of a series of bets, then you realize that if you take that bet every time you may

一連串賭博中的其中一個 那你就可以了解到，如果你每次都接受這些挑戰

win and you may lose, but overall on the aggregate, you will come out ahead. Heads. Heads it is.

你會有輸有贏，但總體來說，你會贏 人頭！答對了！

He’s just won himself 12 bucks. Tails. The ten bucks is your sir. Heads. Thank you very

他剛剛贏了十二塊 背面！這十塊現在是你的了！

much. The man has won 20 bucks. See, it pays to take the risk. Yay! Yes! This is unbelievable.

人頭！貪財貪財 這人剛剛贏了二十塊，看到了吧，接受這個挑戰是值得的 耶！無法置信啊！

My stroke of luck today has been terrible. Every has won off me so far. Who’s funding

我今天運氣也太差了 大家都贏我的錢；誰贊助你的？

you? I’m funding myself. That’s honestly my money. Really? Yeah. This video is in fact

我贊助我自己，其實這都是我的錢 真假？對啊，這部影片

a bit of a risk for me. Because I’m giving out all this money and it’s only going to

對我而言其實是個風險 因為我一直輸錢

make money on YouTube if like half a million people see it. So if you like this video,

如果有數百萬人看到，我可以從Youtube上面賺到一些錢 所以如果你喜歡這個影片

then you should share it with your friends so that this actually turns out to be a positive

那快點分享給你的親朋好友 這樣對我而言就是個有利的賭博

bet for me. Okay I’ll do that. Yeah. Share it with your friends. It’s Veritasium. That’s

好的我會幫你的！分享給你的好朋友們 Veritasium是

the name of the website. Veritasium. So would you take this one-off bet? Let me know in

網站的名字。Veritasium。 所以你要接受這個一次性的賭博嗎？

the comments below and tell me know how much money I would have to put up for you to risk

可以在底下留言讓我知道，順便告訴我 要加碼到多少你財願意接受挑戰

your ten dollars. Now this video was inspired by the book Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel

這個影片是受到「快思慢想」的啟發

Kahneman which I’ve recommended before because it’s awesome and it also inspired me to

我以前有推薦過這本書，因為這本真的很好 這本書也啟發我

make these cool videos so check them out if you haven’t already. But since I’ve recommended

拍這個影片，所以如果你還沒看過，快去看看吧 但因為我已經

this book before I’m going to recommend something different today. My friend Phil

推薦過這本書了，所以我要來推薦一些不一樣的

Plait’s book Bad Astronomy which is all about misconceptions and misuses of astronomy

我朋友Phil Plait的書Bad Astronomy 整本都在講對人們對宇宙的誤解

from astrology through to the moon landing hoaxes. It is an awesome book so you should

比如占星術、登入月球的騙局 這是非常猛的書，你應該要

definitely check it out and in fact you can download it for free by going to audible.com/Veritasium.

去看看，你也可以在audible.com/Veritasium免費下載

Or you can pick any other book of your choosing for a one month free trial. Audible is a great

你也可以看任何想看的書，有一個月的免費試用期 Audible是很好用的

audiobook website with over 150,000 titles in all areas of literature including fiction,

有聲書網站，裡面有超過15萬的東西 包含各領，小說、非小說、期刊

nonfiction and periodicals. So I really want to thank audible for supporting me and I want

所以我真的要謝謝Audible幫我

to thank you for watching.

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