Name: 債券收益率中的生命力閃爍｜短線觀點 (Flickers of life in bond yields | Short View)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T06:28:25.000Z
Duration: 1 min 44 s

程度副詞

Something very odd happened in a peculiar corner of the markets in the opening days of this month

本月一開始，債券市場的某一角落裡發生了奇特的事

Very long-dated Swiss bond yields came out of the freezer

瑞士長期債券收益率終於上升了

情態副詞

For almost a whole week, the yields on the country's 2058 bonds actually poked above 0%

2058年到期的瑞士公債收益率居然升高到0%以上，這維持了快一週

Investors got a return for buying them. Amazing stuff!

投資者還得到債券收益。很奇特吧！

This is of course how bond markets are supposed to work, but we live in extraordinary times,

當然，債券市場本該如此，但我們活在非常的時代

and fully $13tn or so of bonds around the world yield less than nothing, which means investors effectively pay to own them

全球值13兆美元的債券收益率低於零，這代表投資者為了擁有債券甚至還要付錢

Now don't panic. Those Swiss yields swiftly return back to below zero, back to the new normal

先不要緊張。這些瑞士債券收益率很快就回到0%以下，回到新常態

But this isn't the only pocket of the bond markets showing some cracks

但這並不是債券市場出現的唯一裂縫

UK yields have picked up from the record lows they've seen recently as the drift drip of decent UK economic news forces a brighter rethink of what the country might look like after the EU referendum

英國債券收益率已從最近才跌入的谷底裡慢慢回升。近期英國經濟進步的好消息使得大家對於脫歐後的英國較有信心

Even Japanese 10-year yields are inching back up towards zero

連日本十年期債券收益率都往0%爬升了

So, of these canaries in the coal mine, since 2008, investors have been on high alert for the next big crisis, and a serious shake-up of the bond market is a possibility that keeps many awake at night,

這些危險訊號使得從2008年就提心吊膽的投資者憂心金融危機再次降臨，債券市場潰堤的可能性更是讓他們難以入眠

particularly as memories of the mini blowup in German bonds last year are still fresh in the mind

尤其當投資者對於去年德國公債的小爆炸仍心有餘悸

What if inflation recovers? More importantly, what if inflation expectations recover?

如果通膨率上升怎麼辦？或更值得關注的是，如果通膨率預期上升呢？

What if, whisper it, fiscal stimulus kicks in and generates some proper global growth?

那如果，我要小聲地說，財政刺激發揮效用然後產生全球性的經濟成長呢？

But these are all seriously big "ifs," and are nice problems to have

但這些都只是「也許」，機率不大，也都是我們希望發生的事

For now, the attitude is: show me the money, and more importantly, show me a fad that's smoothly raising interest rates

現在普遍的態度大致上是：我要錢，但更重要的是，我要看到利率穩定成長的趨勢

Flickers of the good old days with bonds that really yielded something will come and go, but most investors are resigned to super low yields for weeks and months to come

公債時不時會讓我們得到收益，就像久遠的美好年代一樣，但大多投資者都已認命接下來的幾週內，甚至幾個月內，債券收益率都會非常低

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債券收益率中的生命力閃爍｜短線觀點 (Flickers of life in bond yields | Short View)

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