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  • Strap yourselves in,

    繫好安全帶,

  • we're going to Mars.

    我們要去火星。

  • Not just a few astronauts --

    不只是幾個太空人-

  • thousands of people are going to colonize Mars.

    而是數以千計的人們要殖民火星。

  • And I am telling you that they're going to do this soon.

    我想告訴你,這件事就快發生了。

  • Some of you will end up working on projects on Mars,

    你們其中的一些人最終將在火星上工作,

  • and I guarantee that some of your children will end up living there.

    而且我敢肯定 你們的孩子最終也會在那裡生活。

  • That probably sounds preposterous,

    這可能聽起來有些荒謬,

  • so I'm going to share with you how and when that will happen.

    所以,我將和各位分享 這會發生在何時,和如何發生。

  • But first I want to discuss the obvious question:

    但首先我想討論一個 顯而易見的問題:

  • Why the heck should we do this?

    我們為何要這麼做?

  • 12 years ago,

    12 年前,

  • I gave a TED talk on 10 ways the world could end suddenly.

    我做過一場 TED 演說, 是關於10 種世界突然毀滅的情況。

  • We are incredibly vulnerable to the whims of our own galaxy.

    在銀河系中的任何無意義的小事面前, 我們都是難以想像的脆弱。

  • A single, large asteroid could take us out forever.

    僅一顆大隕石就能將我們滅亡。

  • To survive we have to reach beyond the home planet.

    為了生存,我們不能只侷限在地球。

  • Think what a tragedy it would be

    想想這是怎樣的悲劇,

  • if all that humans have accomplished were suddenly obliterated.

    如果人類所有的成就被瞬間摧毀。

  • And there's another reason we should go:

    而另一個理由:

  • exploration is in our DNA.

    就是我們基因裡的冒險精神。

  • Two million years ago humans evolved in Africa

    兩百萬年前人類從非洲崛起,

  • and then slowly but surely spread out across the entire planet

    然後緩慢但穩定地遍佈整個星球,

  • by reaching into the wilderness that was beyond their horizons.

    通過探索茫茫無際的未知曠野。

  • This stuff is inside us.

    這是人類的本能。

  • And they prospered doing that.

    並且藉此繁榮。

  • Some of the greatest advances in civilization and technology

    文明與科技的飛躍發展,

  • came because we explored.

    也基於我們的探索 。

  • Yes, we could do a lot of good

    沒錯, 用於創建和繁榮火星殖民地的資金

  • with the money it will take to establish a thriving colony on Mars.

    的確可以用來做很多其他事情。

  • And yes we should all be taking far better care of our own home planet.

    而且,我們確實應該 更好的照顧地球。

  • And yes, I worry we could screw up Mars the way we've screwed up Earth.

    並且,我也擔心我們會把 火星弄得和地球一樣糟。

  • But think for a moment,

    但是想想看,

  • what we had when John F. Kennedy told us we would put a human on the moon.

    當約翰·甘迺迪宣布, 我們將把人類送上月球的時刻。

  • He excited an entire generation to dream.

    他點燃了整整一代人的夢想。

  • Think how inspired we will be to see a landing on Mars.

    想像當我們親眼目睹 登陸火星會多鼓舞人心。

  • Perhaps then we will look back at Earth

    或許之後,我們回頭看地球,

  • and see that that is one people instead of many

    看到的是一個人而不是很多人,

  • and perhaps then we will look back at Earth,

    或許之後,當我們在

  • as we struggle to survive on Mars,

    火星上艱困生存的時候,

  • and realize how precious the home planet is.

    再回頭看地球, 才會了解到地球的珍貴。

  • So let me tell you about the extraordinary adventure we're about to undertake.

    現在,我來告訴你 這場即將開始的非凡冒險。

  • But first,

    但首先,

  • a few fascinating facts about where we're going.

    先說說本次目的地的奇特之處。

  • This picture actually represents the true size of Mars compared to Earth.

    這張照片顯示出火星 對比地球的真實大小。

  • Mars is not our sister planet.

    火星不是我們的姐妹星球。

  • It's far less than half the size of the Earth,

    她連地球的一半都不到,

  • and yet despite the fact that it's smaller,

    然而,儘管它的實際體積較小,

  • the surface area of Mars that you can stand on

    但火星上可站立的地表面積

  • is equivalent to the surface area of the Earth that you can stand on,

    等同於地球上的可站立地表面積,

  • because the Earth is mostly covered by water.

    因為地球大部分表面是被水覆蓋著。

  • The atmosphere on Mars is really thin --

    火星的大氣層非常稀薄 -

  • 100 times thinner than on Earth --

    比地球稀薄上百倍 -

  • and it's not breathable, it's 96 percent carbon dioxide.

    而且96%是二氧化碳,所以無法呼吸。

  • It's really cold there.

    那裏非常冷。

  • The average temperature is minus 81 degrees,

    平均溫度在華氏負81度,

  • although there is quite a range of temperature.

    日夜溫差很大。

  • A day on Mars is about as long as a day on Earth,

    火星上的一天相當於地球上的一天,

  • plus about 39 minutes.

    再加上約39分鐘。

  • Seasons and years on Mars are twice as long as they are on Earth.

    火星上的一季和一年的長度 大約是地球的兩倍。

  • And for anybody who wants to strap on some wings and go flying one day,

    對於想要插上翅膀 在天空飛翔的人們而言,

  • Mars has a lot less gravity than on Earth,

    火星比地球重力更小,

  • and it's the kind of place

    在這裡,

  • where you can jump over your car instead of walk around it.

    你可以跳過車輛而不用繞過它。

  • Now, as you can see, Mars isn't exactly Earth-like,

    如你所見,火星並不像地球,

  • but it's by far the most livable other place in our entire solar system.

    但卻是目前為止,太陽系中 另一個最適合人類居住的地方。

  • Here's the problem.

    那麼問題來了,

  • Mars is a long way away,

    火星好遠,

  • a thousand times farther away from us than our own moon.

    比我們到月球的距離還要遠上千倍。

  • The Moon is 250,000 miles away

    月球離地球有25萬英里,

  • and it took Apollo astronauts three days to get there.

    而阿波羅太空人花了3天才到。

  • Mars is 250 million miles away

    火星離地球有2.5億英里,

  • and it will take us eight months to get there --

    需要8個月才能到達 -

  • 240 days.

    就是240天。

  • And that's only if we launch on a very specific day,

    而且還必需在特定的日子,

  • at a very specific time,

    特定的時間出發,

  • once every two years,

    每兩年才有一次的機會,

  • when Mars and the Earth are aligned just so,

    當火星和地球對齊時,

  • so the distance that the rocket would have to travel will be the shortest.

    火箭航行距離最短。

  • 240 days is a long time to spend trapped with your colleagues in a tin can.

    和同事一起被困在鐵皮罐裡 240天是相當漫長的。

  • And meanwhile, our track record of getting to Mars is lousy.

    並且,我們前往火星的記錄也很糟。

  • We and the Russians, the Europeans, the Japanese,

    我們(美國)和俄羅斯,歐洲,日本,

  • the Chinese and the Indians,

    以及中國和印度,

  • have actually sent 44 rockets there,

    事實上,已發射了44枚火箭,

  • and the vast majority of them have either missed or crashed.

    但絕大部分不是沒射中就是撞毀。

  • Only about a third of the missions to Mars have been successful.

    只有三分之一成功到達。

  • And we don't at the moment have a rocket big enough to get there anyway.

    而且我們目前還沒有 夠大的火箭飛到那裡。

  • We once had that rocket, the Saturn V.

    我們曾經有那樣的火箭,土星五號。

  • A couple of Saturn Vs would have gotten us there.

    把幾枚土星五號 捆在一起就能把我們送達。

  • It was the most magnificent machine ever built by humans,

    那是人類建造過的最大機器,

  • and it was the rocket that took us to the Moon.

    也是帶我們去月球的火箭。

  • But the last Saturn V was used in 1973 to launch the Skylab space station,

    1973年,最後一枚土星五號 被發射到天空實驗室空間站,

  • and we decided to do something called the shuttle

    在登陸月球之後, 我們決定使用太空梭

  • instead of continuing on to Mars after we landed on the Moon.

    來執行後續的火星之旅。

  • The biggest rocket we have now

    我們現有的最大火箭,

  • is only half big enough to get us anything to Mars.

    只有前往火星所需火箭的一半大小。

  • So getting to Mars is not going to be easy

    因此前行的路並不容易,

  • and that brings up a really interesting question ...

    這就產生了問題...

  • how soon will the first humans actually land here?

    人類最快何時能首次登陸火星?

  • Now, some pundits think if we got there by 2050,

    現在,一些專家認為 如果2050年能去,

  • that'd be a pretty good achievement.

    就已經相當不錯了。

  • These days, NASA seems to be saying that it can get humans to Mars by 2040.

    但最近,NASA(美國航天航空局) 似乎認為2040年就能送人類上火星。

  • Maybe they can.

    也許他們可以。

  • I believe that they can get human beings into Mars orbit by 2035.

    我相信他們能在2035年 將人類送入火星軌道。

  • But frankly,

    但坦率地說,

  • I don't think they're going to bother in 2035 to send a rocket to Mars,

    我不認為他們到2035年 還擔心發射火箭到火星的事,

  • because we will already be there.

    因為我們已經在那裡了。

  • We're going to land on Mars in 2027.

    我們將於2027年登陸火星。

  • And the reason is

    這是因為

  • this man is determined to make that happen.

    有人下決心要實現它。

  • His name is Elon Musk, he's the CEO of Tesla Motors and SpaceX.

    他叫伊隆·馬斯克, 特斯拉汽車和SpaceX公司的CEO。

  • Now, he actually told me that we would land on Mars by 2025,

    現在,他肯定的告訴我, 我們將在2025年登陸火星,

  • but Elon Musk is more optimistic than I am --

    伊隆·馬斯克比我更樂觀-

  • and that's going a ways --

    這是他的方式 -

  • so I'm giving him a couple of years of slack.

    所以我多給出幾年的彈性時間。

  • Still ...

    但是......

  • you've got to ask yourself,

    或許你會懷疑,

  • can this guy really do this by 2025 or 2027?

    這傢伙真的能在2025年 或兩年後做到嗎?

  • Well, let's put a decade with Elon Musk into a little perspective.

    好吧,讓我們來看 伊隆·馬斯克十年內能做些什麼。

  • Where was this 10 years ago?

    如果在10年前?

  • That's the Tesla electric automobile.

    提到特斯拉電動汽車-

  • In 2005, a lot of people in the automobile industry were saying,

    在2005年,很多汽車業內人士都說,

  • we would not have a decent electric car for 50 years.

    我們在50年內不會有像樣的電動汽車。

  • And where was that?

    那麼還有呢?

  • That is SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket,

    那是SpaceX公司的獵鷹9號火箭,

  • lifting six tons of supplies to the International Space Station.

    運送6噸補給品到國際空間站。

  • 10 years ago,

    可在10年前,

  • SpaceX had not launched anything, or fired a rocket to anywhere.

    SpaceX公司沒有發射過任何火箭。

  • So I think it's a pretty good bet

    所以,我認為這值得一賭,

  • that the person who is revolutionizing the automobile industry

    他只用不到10年時間

  • in less than 10 years

    就革新了整個汽車工業。

  • and the person who created an entire rocket company in less than 10 years

    並在10年內裡創建了整個火箭研製公司,

  • will get us to Mars by 2027.

    是可能在2027年把我們送去火星的。

  • Now, you need to know this:

    現在,你要知道:

  • governments and robots no longer control this game.

    政府和機器人不再控制壟斷這領域,

  • Private companies are leaping into space

    私人公司湧入其中。

  • and they will be happy to take you to Mars.

    他們很樂意帶你去火星。

  • And that raises a really big question.

    這就產生了關鍵性問題。

  • Can we actually live there?

    我們真的可以在那裡生活嗎?

  • Now, NASA may not be able to get us there until 2040,

    在2040年之前,NASA 可能無法送我們去那裡,

  • or we may get there a long time before NASA,

    或者我們在NASA之前就做到了,

  • but NASA has taken a huge responsibility in figuring out how we can live on Mars.

    但NASA肩負了確保人類 在火星上生存的巨大責任。

  • Let's look at the problem this way.

    換個方式來看這個難題。

  • Here's what you need to live on Earth:

    這是你在地球上生活的必需品:

  • food, water, shelter and clothing.

    食品、水、住所和衣物。

  • And here's what you need to live on Mars:

    而在火星上的必需品是

  • all of the above, plus oxygen.

    上述所有,加上氧氣。

  • So let's look at the most important thing on this list first.

    因此,我們先來看清單中最重要部分。

  • Water is the basis of all life as we know it,

    如眾所知,水是所有生命的基礎,

  • and it's far too heavy for us to carry water from the Earth to Mars to live,

    要把水從地球運到火星是不實際的,

  • so we have to find water if our life is going to succeed on Mars.

    所以, 要在火星上生存就必須找到水。

  • And if you look at Mars, it looks really dry,

    但你來看火星, 它看起來非常乾旱,

  • it looks like the entire planet is a desert.

    整顆星球就像一個沙漠。

  • But it turns out that it's not.

    但事實證明,並非如此。

  • The soil alone on Mars contains up to 60 percent water.

    火星土壤含水量可高達60%。

  • And a number of orbiters that we still have flying around Mars have shown us --

    從許多繞火星飛行的人造衛星 所獲得的資料-

  • and by the way, that's a real photograph --

    順便說一下,這是張真實的照片-

  • that lots of craters on Mars have a sheet of water ice in them.

    火星上很多火山口 都覆蓋一層冰水物質。

  • It's not a bad place to start a colony.

    在這是建立殖民地就不錯。

  • Now, here's a view of a little dig the Phoenix Lander did in 2008,

    這張2008年拍攝的照片 展示鳳凰號登陸器的挖掘實景,

  • showing that just below the surface of the soil is ice --

    可以看到土壤表層下是冰。

  • that white stuff is ice.

    那白色的物體就是冰。

  • In the second picture,

    在第二張照片裡,

  • which is four days later than the first picture,

    是上張照片的四天後所拍攝的,

  • you can see that some of it is evaporating.

    你可以看到,有一部分冰蒸發了。

  • Orbiters also tell us

    人造衛星也告訴我們

  • that there are huge amounts of underground water on Mars

    火星上有大量地下水

  • as well as glaciers.

    以及冰川。

  • In fact, if only the water ice at the poles on Mars melted,

    實際上,如果僅僅火星兩極的冰蓋融化,

  • most of the planet would be under 30 feet of water.

    星球的大部分將淹沒在30英尺的水之下。

  • So there's plenty of water there,

    所以,火星水源充足,

  • but most of it's ice, most of it's underground,

    但大部分是冰, 大部分也儲存於地表之下,

  • it takes a lot of energy to get it and a lot of human labor.

    需要大量的能源和人力去開採。

  • This is a device cooked up at the University of Washington

    這是華盛頓大學所發明的設備

  • back in 1998.

    早在1998年。

  • It's basically a low-tech dehumidifier.

    這基本上就是個低技術的除濕機。

  • And it turns out the Mars atmosphere is often 100 percent humid.

    而事實證明, 火星大氣層常處於100%的濕度。

  • So this device can extract all the water that humans will need

    所以這個設備可以簡單的從大氣層

  • simply from the atmosphere on Mars.

    提取人類所需的水。

  • Next we have to worry about what we will breathe.

    接下來要考慮如何呼吸的問題。

  • Frankly, I was really shocked

    坦率地說, 發現這已被NASA解決的,時候

  • to find out that NASA has this problem worked out.

    我非常震驚。

  • This is a scientist at MIT named Michael Hecht.

    MIT(麻省理工學院)的科學家, 邁克爾。赫克特。

  • And he's developed this machine, Moxie.

    他研製的這台稱為莫可西機器,

  • I love this thing.

    我相當喜歡它。

  • It's a reverse fuel cell, essentially,

    它實質上是一個反向燃料電池,

  • that sucks in the Martian atmosphere and pumps out oxygen.

    吸入火星大氣然後排出氧氣。

  • And you have to remember that CO2 --

    而且你要記住,CO2 -

  • carbon dioxide, which is 96 percent of Mars' atmosphere --

    二氧化碳佔了火星大氣層的96%-

  • CO2 is basically 78 percent oxygen.

    但CO2中的78%就是氧氣。

  • Now, the next big rover that NASA sends to Mars in 2020

    NASA計劃在2020年 發送到火星的大型登陸車上

  • is going to have one of these devices aboard,

    將安裝這樣的裝置,

  • and it will be able to produce enough oxygen

    並且它能製造滿足一個人

  • to keep one person alive indefinitely.

    一生所需的氧氣量。

  • But the secret to this --

    這還有一個秘密 -

  • and that's just for testing --

    當然這還在測試階段 -

  • the secret to this is that this thing was designed from the get-go

    這組機器的設計初衷

  • to be scalable by a factor of 100.

    就是要能擴大100倍。

  • Next, what will we eat?

    好吧,我們吃什麼呢?

  • Well, we'll use hydroponics to grow food,

    我們將用水培法來種植糧食,

  • but we're not going to be able to grow

    但我們只打算種植出

  • more than 15 to 20 percent of our food there,

    不超過我們所需 食物量的15%到20%,

  • at least not until water is running on the surface of Mars

    除非水已經在火星的表面上流淌成河,

  • and we actually have the probability and the capability of planting crops.

    並且我們真的能種植農作物 並確保成功率。

  • In the meantime,

    在這之前,

  • most of our food will arrive from Earth,

    我們大部分的食物會從地球運送,

  • and it will be dried.

    是脫水乾燥食物。

  • And then we need some shelter.

    而且,我們需要住所。

  • At first we can use inflatable, pressurized buildings

    首先,我們住在充氣加壓式建築物

  • as well as the landers themselves.

    以及登陸器本身。

  • But this really only works during the daytime.

    但是,這只在白天才能住。

  • There is too much solar radiation and too much radiation from cosmic rays.

    太陽輻射以及宇宙射太多。

  • So we really have to go underground.

    所以,我們需要住在地下。

  • Now, it turns out that the soil on Mars,

    目前已證實,火星大部分的土壤,

  • by and large, is perfect for making bricks.

    非常適合製造磚塊。

  • And NASA has figured this one out, too.

    NASA也已得出這樣的結論。

  • They're going to throw some polymer plastic into the bricks,

    他們會在磚塊中加入高分子塑料,

  • shove them in a microwave oven,

    放在微波爐中擠壓,

  • and then you will be able to build buildings with really thick walls.

    然後就可以造出厚重磚牆的建築物。

  • Or we may choose to live underground in caves or in lava tubes,

    或者,我們可以選擇住在地下, 洞穴或熔岩管,

  • of which there are plenty.

    這樣的地方火星上有很多。

  • And finally there's clothing.

    最後還有衣服。

  • On Earth we have miles of atmosphere piled up on us,

    在地球上, 幾英里厚的大氣層堆積在我們之上,

  • which creates 15 pounds of pressure on our bodies at all times,

    我們身體一直承受著15磅的壓力,

  • and we're constantly pushing out against that.

    所以我們身體在不停的抵抗。

  • On Mars there's hardly any atmospheric pressure.

    火星上幾乎沒有任何大氣壓力。

  • So Dava Newman,

    所以達瓦·紐曼,

  • a scientist at MIT,

    這位MIT的科學家,

  • has created this sleek space suit.

    設計了這件光滑太空服。

  • It will keep us together,

    它將我們連在一起,

  • block radiation and keep us warm.

    阻擋輻射並保持溫暖。

  • So let's think about this for a minute.

    到此,我們回顧一下。

  • Food, shelter, clothing, water, oxygen ...

    食品,住房,衣服,水,氧氣...

  • we can do this.

    我們都能辦到。

  • We really can.

    全部都能。

  • But it's still a little complicated and a little difficult.

    但實際操作難免複雜困難。

  • So that leads to the next big --

    所以接下來的問題 -

  • really big step --

    是非常關鍵的 -

  • in living the good life on Mars.

    如果要在火星上生活得好。

  • And that's terraforming the planet:

    就要改造整顆星球:

  • making it more like Earth,

    讓它地球化,

  • reengineering an entire planet.

    改造整顆星球,

  • That sounds like a lot of hubris,

    這聽起來非常的狂妄,