(Laughter)

我是一名英國人。

(Applause)

（笑聲）

Never before has the phrase "I am British" elicited so much pity.

（掌聲）

(Laughter)

這句話從來不曾引起這樣的同情。

I come from an island where many of us like to believe

（笑聲）

there's been a lot of continuity over the last thousand years.

我來自一座島， 那裡有很多人認為

We tend to have historically imposed change on others

過去的千年有一些連貫性。

but done much less of it ourselves.

縱觀歷史，我們時常 要求他人改革

So it came as an immense shock to me

卻很少改變自己。

when I woke up on the morning of June 24

於是我有些措手不及，

to discover that my country had voted to leave the European Union,

當我在6月24號的早晨醒來

my Prime Minister had resigned,

發現我的國家決定脫離歐盟，

and Scotland was considering a referendum

首相辭職，

that could bring to an end the very existence of the United Kingdom.

蘇格蘭考慮重啟公投，

So that was an immense shock for me,

意味著大英帝國有可能瓦解。

and it was an immense shock for many people,

我很震驚，

but it was also something that, over the following several days,

許多人和我一樣，

created a complete political meltdown

脫歐公投的結果在這幾天

in my country.

讓我國的政治

There were calls for a second referendum,

經歷全面性的崩潰。

almost as if, following a sports match,

有人提議舉行第二輪公投，

we could ask the opposition for a replay.

簡直像是比賽後，

Everybody was blaming everybody else.

馬上要求對手重比過。

People blamed the Prime Minister

所有人都在互相責怪。

for calling the referendum in the first place.

人們指責首相

They blamed the leader of the opposition for not fighting it hard enough.

指責他提議舉行公投。

The young accused the old.

指責留歐陣營沒有用盡全力。

The educated blamed the less well-educated.

年輕人指責老年人。

That complete meltdown was made even worse

知識分子指責未受良好教育的人。

by the most tragic element of it:

這場危機裡最可怕，

levels of xenophobia and racist abuse in the streets of Britain

也最糟糕的是，

at a level that I have never seen before

我從未曾在英國街頭

in my lifetime.

經歷過這種的排外現象

People are now talking about whether my country is becoming a Little England,

以及種族歧視。

or, as one of my colleagues put it,

人們在討論我的國家會變成小英格蘭

whether we're about to become a 1950s nostalgia theme park

或者是，按我同事的話說

floating in the Atlantic Ocean.

我們就要變成一個在大西洋上漂浮的

(Laughter)

五十年代懷舊主題樂園。

But my question is really,

（笑聲）

should we have the degree of shock that we've experienced since?

但我想問的是，

Was it something that took place overnight?

我們該如此震驚嗎？

Or are there deeper structural factors that have led us to where we are today?

它是隔夜突然發生的事件嗎？

So I want to take a step back and ask two very basic questions.

或者，那些深層的結構性因素 帶來了今日的結果？

First, what does Brexit represent,

我想退一步問兩個問題：

not just for my country,

第一個，英國脫歐意味著什麼？

but for all of us around the world?

不僅僅對我的國家

And second, what can we do about it?

對全球人民有何象徵意義？

How should we all respond?

第二，我們能做什麼？

So first, what does Brexit represent?

我們要怎樣應對？

Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

所以第一，英國脫歐意味著什麼？

Brexit teaches us many things about our society

後見之明是件美好的事，

and about societies around the world.

英國脫歐不但讓我們看清我們的社群

It highlights in ways that we seem embarrassingly unaware of

也看清了其它地方類似的社群。

how divided our societies are.

它讓我們知道，我們對社會分歧

The vote split along lines of age, education, class and geography.

的無知程度。

Young people didn't turn out to vote in great numbers,

年齡、教育程度、階級和地域 形成兩個陣營。

but those that did wanted to remain.

年輕人的投票率不高，

Older people really wanted to leave the European Union.

但投票的大多數贊同留歐。

Geographically, it was London and Scotland that most strongly committed

年長的人們想要離開歐盟。

to being part of the European Union,

按地區分，倫敦和蘇格蘭強烈地

while in other parts of the country there was very strong ambivalence.

想要留在歐盟

Those divisions are things we really need to recognize and take seriously.

與此同時， 其他地區的人們更偏向脫歐。

But more profoundly, the vote teaches us something

我們應該認知並重視這些分歧。

about the nature of politics today.

這次公投深刻地告訴我們

Contemporary politics is no longer just about right and left.

今日政治的本質。

It's no longer just about tax and spend.

當代政治不再僅僅是左翼與右翼。

It's about globalization.

政治不在是稅務以及開支。

The fault line of contemporary politics is between those that embrace globalization

當代政治與全球化有關。

and those that fear globalization.

當代政治的分歧來自熱愛全球化

(Applause)

以及恐懼全球化的兩方。

If we look at why those who wanted to leave --

（掌聲）

we call them "Leavers," as opposed to "Remainers" --

如果我們

we see two factors in the opinion polls

看看脫歐者想要脫歐的理由

that really mattered.

我們可以在他們的理由裡看到兩點

The first was immigration, and the second sovereignty,

兩個重要的點。

and these represent a desire for people to take back control of their own lives

第一個是移民，第二個是主權，

and the feeling that they are unrepresented by politicians.

這些代表了人們想要拿回 他們自己人生的掌控權，

But those ideas are ones that signify fear and alienation.

這是政治人物未曾為他們喉舌的恐懼。

They represent a retreat back towards nationalism and borders

但是那些想法意味著恐懼與排外，

in ways that many of us would reject.

代表向民族主義 以及邊境管制靠攏

What I want to suggest is the picture is more complicated than that,

這是我們大都不願意接受的方式。

that liberal internationalists,

我想展示的是比較複雜的全景

like myself, and I firmly include myself in that picture,

是像我一樣的自由國際主義者

need to write ourselves back into the picture

也在其中的全景

in order to understand how we've got to where we are today.

因為我們必須身在其中，

When we look at the voting patterns across the United Kingdom,

才能理解 我們是怎麼走到今天這一步的。

we can visibly see the divisions.

當我們看到英國全國公投的模式

The blue areas show Remain

我們可以清楚的看見分歧。

and the red areas Leave.

藍色地區的想要留下

When I looked at this,

紅色地區的想要離開。

what personally struck me was the very little time in my life

當我看到這個的時候

I've actually spent in many of the red areas.

讓我為之震驚的是， 我人生中幾乎沒有什麼時間

I suddenly realized that, looking at the top 50 areas in the UK

是在紅色地區裡度過的。

that have the strongest Leave vote,

我突然發現，

I've spent a combined total of four days of my life in those areas.

全國50個最想離開歐盟的地區，

In some of those places,

我只在其中待過四天。

I didn't even know the names of the voting districts.

我甚至不知道

It was a real shock to me,

某些選區的地名。

and it suggested that people like me

我感到很震驚。

who think of ourselves as inclusive, open and tolerant,

這表示我們這些自認包容、開放、

perhaps don't know our own countries and societies

接納他人的人，

nearly as well as we like to believe.

其實並沒有像我們想像的

(Applause)

這麼瞭解自己的國家和社會。

And the challenge that comes from that is we need to find a new way

（掌聲）

to narrate globalization to those people,

我們的挑戰是找到一種新方式

to recognize that for those people who have not necessarily been to university,

向他們描述全球化，

who haven't necessarily grown up with the Internet,

理解那些沒有上過大學的人，

that don't get opportunities to travel,

不是和網路一起長大的人，

they may be unpersuaded by the narrative that we find persuasive

沒有機會去旅行的人，

in our often liberal bubbles.

我們在自由主義泡泡中形成的論述

(Applause)

恐怕是他們無法接受的。

It means that we need to reach out more broadly and understand.

(掌聲）

In the Leave vote, a minority have peddled the politics of fear and hatred,

這意味著，我們需要接觸大眾， 廣為理解。

creating lies and mistrust

在脫歐的選票中， 一小部份人煽動著人們的情緒

around, for instance, the idea that the vote on Europe

製造謊言與欺騙

could reduce the number of refugees and asylum-seekers coming to Europe,

他們說，脫歐可以減少

when the vote on leaving had nothing to do with immigration

那些從歐洲來的難民與尋求庇護者 進入英國，

from outside the European Union.

當脫歐與歐盟外來的移民

But for a significant majority of the Leave voters

毫無關聯的時候。

the concern was disillusionment with the political establishment.

但是大部分選擇脫毆的人

This was a protest vote for many,

表達的是一種對政治體系的理想幻滅。

a sense that nobody represented them,

這是那些沒有政治家在政府裡代表 他們權益的人

that they couldn't find a political party that spoke for them,

找不到屬於自己黨派的人

and so they rejected that political establishment.

他們拒絕現在的政治體制

This replicates around Europe and much of the liberal democratic world.

並投出這具有抗議性質的選票。

We see it with the rise in popularity of Donald Trump in the United States,

這發生在歐洲， 以及世界上其他很多民主社會裡。

with the growing nationalism of Viktor Orbán in Hungary,

在美國川普贏得了很多支持

with the increase in popularity of Marine Le Pen in France.

在匈牙利增長的民族主義 歐爾班·維克托

The specter of Brexit is in all of our societies.

以及在法國支持率大漲的瑪麗·勒龐。

So the question I think we need to ask is my second question,

脫歐的幽靈籠罩在我們的社會中。

which is how should we collectively respond?

我們該問的第二個問題是，

For all of us who care about creating liberal, open, tolerant societies,

我們該如何回應？作為群體。

we urgently need a new vision,

對於所有關心自由、開放、包容的人們

a vision of a more tolerant, inclusive globalization,

我們需要發現全球化的正面影響

one that brings people with us rather than leaving them behind.

並迫切地需要一個更加包容、 寬容的新社會

That vision of globalization

一個讓人們參與， 而不是排擠他們的社會

is one that has to start by a recognition of the positive benefits of globalization.

全球化的正面影響，

The consensus amongst economists

可以一視同仁，雨露均沾的社會。

is that free trade, the movement of capital,

經濟學家的共識

the movement of people across borders

是自由貿易、資本的移動

benefit everyone on aggregate.

人力遷徙流動的自由

The consensus amongst international relations scholars

並給所有人帶來利益。

is that globalization brings interdependence,

國際關係學家一致認同

which brings cooperation and peace.

國際化伴隨著相互依存

But globalization also has redistributive effects.

並帶來合作與和平。

It creates winners and losers.

但是全球化也會影響到重新分配的問題。

To take the example of migration,

它帶來了贏家以及失敗者。

we know that immigration is a net positive for the economy as a whole

就比方說移民

under almost all circumstances.

我們知道移民可以給 宏觀經濟帶來益處

But we also have to be very aware

在幾乎所有情況裡。

that there are redistributive consequences,

但我們也需要對此保持謹慎態度

that importantly, low-skilled immigration

因為這也會帶來負面影響

can lead to a reduction in wages for the most impoverished in our societies

技術層次較低的移民

and also put pressure on house prices.

會降低本國窮苦大眾的工資，

That doesn't detract from the fact that it's positive,

同時提高住房價格。

but it means more people have to share in those benefits

但這些還不能與它所能帶來的好處 相比較。

and recognize them.

這意味著， 更多的人需要分享它所帶來的好處

In 2002, the former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Kofi Annan,

並且了解它們。

gave a speech at Yale University,

在2002年前聯合國秘書長安南

and that speech was on the topic of inclusive globalization.

在耶魯大學做了一個演講

That was the speech in which he coined that term.

那個演講的題目是全球化的包容性。

And he said, and I paraphrase,

他在他的演講裡創造了那個詞。

"The glass house of globalization has to be open to all

他大概是這麼說的，

if it is to remain secure.

“全球化的入口需要向所有人敞開

Bigotry and ignorance

才能維持安定。

are the ugly face of exclusionary and antagonistic globalization."

偏執與無知

That idea of inclusive globalization was briefly revived in 2008

將會是全球化排擠拒絕某些人的結果。”

in a conference on progressive governance

包容型全球化的想法在2008年時又出現 在公眾視線裡

involving many of the leaders of European countries.

在一個進步政府的大會中

But amid austerity and the financial crisis of 2008,

很多歐盟領導人參與其中。

the concept disappeared almost without a trace.

但在2008年的經濟危機

Globalization has been taken to support a neoliberal agenda.

讓這些想法消失的無影無蹤。

It's perceived to be part of an elite agenda

全球化被用來支持新自由主義議程。

rather than something that benefits all.

它被認為是精英政治的一部分

And it needs to be reclaimed on a far more inclusive basis

而不是針對所有人的利益。

than it is today.

它需要建立在一個比今天

So the question is, how can we achieve that goal?

包容性更強的基礎上。

How can we balance on the one hand addressing fear and alienation

所以問題是， 我們怎樣才能達到那個目標？

while on the other hand refusing vehemently

我們怎樣權衡， 解決恐慌與異化

to give in to xenophobia and nationalism?

與此同時

That is the question for all of us.

不陷入排外主義與民族主義？

And I think, as a social scientist,

這是我們所有人該回答的問題。

that social science offers some places to start.

身為一名社會科學家

Our transformation has to be about both ideas and about material change,

社會科學提供了一些著手思考的起點，

and I want to give you four ideas as a starting point.

我們的轉型一定是 形而上和形而下雙方的，

The first relates to the idea of civic education.

我想以四個想法開始。

What stands out from Brexit

第一個與國民教育有關。

is the gap between public perception and empirical reality.

英國脫毆凸顯的是

It's been suggested that we've moved to a postfactual society,

公眾看法與現實之間的分歧。

where evidence and truth no longer matter,

有證據顯示， 我們已經進入後真實社會。

and lies have equal status to the clarity of evidence.

證據與真理已經不再重要

So how can we --

謊言與事實往往站在同一高度。

(Applause)

所以，我們怎樣—

How can we rebuild respect for truth and evidence into our liberal democracies?

（掌聲）

It has to begin with education,

我們怎樣才能在自由民主的社會中 中間對事實和證據的信任與尊重？

but it has to start with the recognition that there are huge gaps.

這必須從教育開始，

In 2014, the pollster Ipsos MORI

這必須從意識到巨大分歧存在開始。

published a survey on attitudes to immigration,

在2014年，民意調查機構 Ipsos MORI

and it showed that as numbers of immigrants increase,

公布了一份針對移民態度的調查

so public concern with immigration also increases,

它指出，移民的數量上升的時候

although it obviously didn't unpack causality,

社會對於移民的擔憂也會上升

because this could equally be to do not so much with numbers

雖然它很明顯並沒有拆分因果關係，

but the political and media narrative around it.

因為這不需要用數字

But the same survey also revealed

僅是用政治與媒體宣傳就可以表明。

huge public misinformation

這份調查同時顯示出

and misunderstanding about the nature of immigration.

公眾得到許多錯誤的資料

For example, in these attitudes in the United Kingdom,

和對於移民本質的誤解。

the public believed that levels of asylum

舉個例子，在英國

were a greater proportion of immigration than they were,

公眾認為難民的數量

but they also believed the levels of educational migration

比移民數量的比例還高，

were far lower as a proportion of overall migration

公眾還低估了移民的教育程度，

than they actually are.

認為受過教育的移民

So we have to address this misinformation,

不是整體移民的主要來源。

the gap between perception and reality on key aspects of globalization.

我們需要修正這些錯誤資料。

And that can't just be something that's left to our schools,

認知與現實之間的差距， 是全球化的關鍵問題。

although that's important to begin at an early age.

我們不能只把這個任務交給學校

It has to be about lifelong civic participation

雖然從小學起非常關鍵。

and public engagement that we all encourage as societies.

這需要成為一個終身計劃

The second thing that I think is an opportunity

我們鼓勵社會帶動公眾參與。

is the idea to encourage more interaction across diverse communities.

第二個是機遇

(Applause)

讓不同社群進行更多的交流。

One of the things that stands out for me very strikingly,

（掌聲）

looking at immigration attitudes in the United Kingdom,

令我驚奇的事

is that ironically, the regions of my country

當我們觀察英國面對移民的態度，

that are the most tolerant of immigrants

那些

have the highest numbers of immigrants.

最包容移民的區域

So for instance, London and the Southeast have the highest numbers of immigrants,

往往移民數量也最高。

and they are also by far the most tolerant areas.

譬如， 倫敦和東南地區有著最多的移民

It's those areas of the country that have the lowest levels of immigration

它們也是最包容開放的地區。

that actually are the most exclusionary and intolerant towards migrants.