保羅-克魯格曼談2016年競選，唐納德-特朗普談《你錯過了什麼》(08/16/16) (Paul Krugman Talks 2016 Race, Donald Trump on 'What'd You Miss' (08/16/16))

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STOCKS CLOSING LOWER,
SLIPPING FROM ALL-TIME HIGHS.
JOE: "WHAT'D YOU MISS?"
THE TAKE ON THE
ELECTION, FISCAL STIMULUS, AND
THE FED'S NEXT MOVE.
WAYS IN ON MAGNUS
THE ECONOMY AND TRADE AFTER THE
BREXIT VOTE.
WASHINGTONPDATE FROM
, GOING DARK IN COLORADO AND
PENNSYLVANIA.
SCARLET: WE BEGIN WITH MARKET
MINUTES.
STOCKS RETREATING FROM RECORD
HIGHS.
HOUSING STARTS BEAT ESTIMATES,
, BUT ITER THAN EXPECTED
IS THE COMMENTARY FROM FED
OFFICIALS THAT MAY HAVE CHANGED
THE TONE IN THE MARKET.
JOE: SOME OF THOSE SAFETY YIELD
PLACE LEADING THE WAY DOWN
TODAY.
OLIVER: I'M GOING TO START WITH
THAT.
TO EMERGE,LEAR STORY
LOSSES IN UTILITIES AND
TELECOMMUNICATIONS STOCKS.
GROUPS THAT HAD
SUPPORTED THE MARKET FOR SO
LONG.
WHEN THE EXPECTATION FOR
RATE HIKES ARE NOT CHANGING TOO
MUCH, WE SAW A BUMP UP IN NEXT
BREAK, BUT NOT A HUGE AMOUNT.
LOOK AT THE HEALTH CARE SECTOR,
, ONLY FOR STOCKS IN
THE INDEX WERE OF, MANY LOSING
2%.
OIL VERSUS THE ENERGY STOCK
INDEX, A BIT OF DIVERSIONS.
-- OF DIVERGENCE.
TWO HAVEEE WHERE THE
SEPARATED, A BIG JUMP IN OIL
TODAY, NOT QUITE AS BIG IN THE
ENERGY STOCKS, PRETTY FLAT
DESPITE THE GAINS.
ON THE GOVERNMENT BOND
MARKET FRONT, THE SPREAD TO
BETWEEN THE TWO-YEAR AND THE 10
YEAR, DROPPING A LITTLE BIT.
SOME INTERESTING STUFF WITH THAT
PRINT,Y WEAKER CPI
CAUSING SOME FLATTENING, THEN
THE FEDS DUDLEY CAME OUT AND
SAID A SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE IS
STILL ON THE TABLE.
DIP WAS THE KEY EVENT OF
THE DAY.
SCARLET: THE YEN STRENGTHENING
PAST 100 FOR THE FIRST TIME
BREXIT.AGG SAID --
AS JOE MENTIONED, LOTS OF
QUESTIONS OVER WHAT THE FED DOES
NEXT, WITH THE BOJ DOES NEXT,
WHEN IT COMES TO MONETARY
POLICY.
POUND RECOVERING FROM A
ONE-MONTH LOW.
YOU CAN SEE THE SLIGHT MOVE
HIGHER.
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN
CONSUMER PRICES, AND WHAT
INTERPRETATION THE IS THAT THERE
IS LESS JUSTIFICATION FOR THE
BOE TO EASE.
CHANGE.A CHART OF DAILY
BIG OUTFLOWS ON FRIDAY,
SIGNS THE ENTHUSIASM FOR GOLD IS
FIZZLING.
WE HAVE SEEN A BIG RALLY AND
OIL LATELY.
NEARLY 2% TODAY.
THAT CHART EXPLAINS A LOT.
SCARLET: THOSE ARE TODAY'S
MARKET MINUTES.
JOINS US NOW.MAN
QUOTE AND GET A
RIGHT INTO THE BIGGEST STORY IN
THE WORLD, THE ELECTION, WHAT IT
MEANS FOR THE ECONOMY, DONALD
TRUMP WAS RECENTLY QUOTED IN AN
ARTICLE IN THE NEW YORK TIMES.
WE HAVE THE QUOTE HERE.
IF WE CAN BRING IT UP, THIS IS
IT.
SAYING WE NEEDY
TO SPEND MORE.
POP. CALLED PRIMING THE PROMPT
TO SOMETIMES YOU HAVE TO DO THAT
A LITTLE BIT TO GET THINGS
GOING.
WE HAVE NO CHOICE -- OTHERWISE,
WE ARE GOING TO DIE ON THE VINE.
THIS, HE IS RIGHT.
IT IS PRETTY MUCH BY ACCIDENT.
IT IS TRUE.
I THINK I UNDERSTAND.
MY STRONG GUESS IS THAT
HILLARY'S ECONOMIC ADVISERS
WOULD LIKE TO PROPOSE MORE
DEFICIT SPENDING, BUT THEY
FIGURE IT IS PROBABLY NOT A GOOD
THING TO SAY BECAUSE THE PUBLIC
DOES NOT LIKE THAT, AND SO SHE
IS BEING CAUTIOUS.
SPENDING,FRASTRUCTURE
WE NEED MORE.
>> HOW DO YOU COME TO THIS
HE CAME TO THIS
WITHOUT THE RIGHT REASONS?
ECONOMICS, HE HATES CHINA
AND TRADE.
EVERYTHING ELSE, HE IS FOR TAX
CUTS FOR THE RICH, INCREASES FOR
THE RICH, HE IS ON ALL SIDES OF
IT.
THIS WEEK, HE IS SAYING THAT'S
WHAT HE WANTS TO DO, BUT THERE
IS NO ACTUAL PLAN.
WHAT DOES HIS HISTORY
OF BORROWING AND SPENDING TO
BUILD HIS EMPIRE TELL YOU ABOUT
HOW HE WOULD APPROACH THE
NATIONAL ECONOMY?
>> WE HAVE THIS ILLUSION THAT
BUSINESS EXPERIENCE HAS A LOT TO
POLICY,RUNNING ECONOMIC
BUT THEY ARE BOTH DIFFERENT
DOMAINS.
IT DOESN'T TELL US MUCH ABOUT
WHAT HE WOULD DO.
AND PARTICULAR, THE TRUMP STYLE,
BAR A LOT OF MONEY, THEN WALK
AWAY FROM IT.
THAT ISN'T GOING TO WORK FOR THE
UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, SO NOT
USEFUL.
OF WHETHER HES
STUMBLED INTO THIS BY ACCIDENT,
HIS ECONOMIC VIEWPOINT DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE IN LINE WITH THE
CLASSIC AM CONSERVATIVE,
REPUBLICAN VIEWS WE HAVE HEARD
LATELY.
REASON ISU THINK THE
THAT YOU HAVE CONSERVATIVE
VOICES GETTING BEHIND HIM.
SUSPECTS.AL
THE SAME OLD GANG.
THEY ARE MAKING A JUDGMENT THAT
WHAT HE WOULD ACTUALLY DO ARE
THE ONES THEY WANT.
ALSO, THEIR THING HAS ALWAYS
BEEN LET'S BE WHERE POWER IS,
AND THEY THINK THIS IS THEIR
BEST CHANCE.
OBVIOUSLY THERE WILL BE NO ROOM
FOR THEM, NO ONE WILL BE
LISTENING TO THEM IF HILLARY
CLINTON WINS.
THE IMPORTANT THING IS THEY
NEVER REALLY CARED ABOUT
DEFICITS.
EXCEPT WITH WHICH A STICK TO
BEAT PRESIDENT OBAMA.
CAMPAIGN RHETORIC.
WHAT THEY DO BELIEVE IN OUR TAX
CUTS FOR THE WEALTHY, AND TRUMP
IS PROMISING THAT.
HAS HIS BACKGROUND, BUT HE'S
WHONG TO TARGET AMERICANS
ARE LOOKING TO HIM TO BRING THEM
UP.
, CHIP THAT ECONOMIC MALAISE IN
THE U.S. IS CONTRIBUTING TO HIS
SUPPORT BASE?
-- HOW MUCH IS THAT ECONOMIC
MALAISE IN THE U.S. CONTRIBUTING
TO HIS SUPPORT BASE?
>> ECONOMIC ANXIETY IS NOT A
AOD PREDICT OR OF WHO IS
TRUMP SUPPORTER.
MAYBE IF THE COUNTRY WAS
LOOMING, WAGES RISING, AND
MANUFACTURING STRONG, ALL OF
THAT ANXIETY WOULD BE ON HOLD,
BUT I'M NOT TOO SURE ABOUT THAT.
THE IDEA THAT THIS IS WHAT IT IS
ABOUT.
TRADE, ALL OF
THESE SUBTERRANEAN AND PULSES
DRIVING THE REPUBLICAN VOTE ARE
NOW COMING TO THE SURFACE.
TALK ABOUTT'S
HILLARY CLINTON.
YOU HAVE WRITTEN THAT HER VISION
IS NOTABLE FOR ITS LACK OF
OUTLANDISH ASSUMPTIONS.
SHE IS NOT JUSTIFYING HER
PROPOSALS THAT THEY WOULD CAUSE
A RADICAL QUICKENING OF THE U.S.
ECONOMY.
STRENGTHENING THE SOCIAL
SECURITY SAFETY NET BY TAXING
HIGH-INCOME EARNERS.
IT IS CENTER-LEFT GOVERNANCE,
AN OBAMA THIRD TERM.
A LOT OF PEOPLE IN THE ORBIT
THINK THAT CLINTON-TYPE POLICY
WITH MORE INFRASTRUCTURE
SPENDING MIGHT HAVE A BIGGER
IMPACT ON GROWTH THAN SHE IS
WILLING TO ASSUME.
ASSUMINGSENTIALLY
NOTHING IN TERMS OF GROWTH
IMPACT, BUT THEY ARE NOT WILLING
TO BET THE FARM ON IT.
OFIS PARTLY A QUESTION
WHETHER WE WILL SEE MORE.
ARE SIGNIFICANT TAX
INCREASES AT THE TOP END, FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONS TO
ITMACARE, SO IT'S NOT THAT
IS MINOR, BUT IT IS A
CONTINUATION OF THE SAME KIND OF
GOVERNANCE WE HAVE HAD.
FISCAL THE TIME FOR
STIMULUS OVER?
2-3 YEARS AGO, THE U.S.
ECONOMY WAS WELL BELOW CAPACITY.
THE FED WAS NOT THAT EFFECTIVE.
QUANTITATIVE EASING IS MARGINAL
TOOL AT BEST.
NOW THE ECONOMY MIGHT BE AT FULL
EMPLOYMENT, BUT WE DON'T KNOW
THAT.
SUPPOSE THERE IS TROUBLE IN
EUROPE OR CHINA.
SUPPOSE THERE ARE MORE PROBLEMS
OUT OF HOUSING.
WE HAVE VERY LITTLE ROOM TO
MANEUVER.
THE FED CAN'T DO MUCH MORE THAN
IT IS DOING.
FISCAL POLICY WOULD BE USEFUL AS
INSURANCE, AN ADDITIONAL SORT OF
DEMAND, AND WE KNOW IT CAN'T THE
STARTED ON SHORT NOTICE.
IS A PRECAUTIONARY CASE
FOR BUSINESS STIMULUS RATHER
THAN WE NEED IT RIGHT NOW.
OF COURSE, WE CAN BORROW VERY
CHEAPLY AND WE NEED
INFRASTRUCTURE.
WANT TO BRING IN
SOMETHING CARL ICAHN SAID.
ARE THINK TRUMP'S POLICIES
POSSIBLY THE ONLY THING THAT
WILL SAVE US FROM GOING DOWN
THIS DECLINE WE ARE IN ON
PRODUCTIVITY.
SCARLET: THE LATEST PRODUCTIVITY
NUMBERS WERE DISAPPOINTING.
INVESTORS, BIG BUSINESS,
POLICYMAKERS MISUNDERSTAND THE
MOST ABOUT PRODUCTIVITY?
I'M NOT SURE THAT INVESTORS
MISUNDERSTAND, BUT I THINK WHAT
CARL ICAHN IS PRETENDING TO
MISUNDERSTAND IS THAT THE
PRESIDENT HAS A LOT TO DO WITH
THAT.
THE PRODUCTIVITY SLOWDOWN IS A
GLOBAL PHENOMENON.
LL AND IN A LU
TECHNOLOGY.
THERE IS NOTHING A PRESIDENT CAN
DO ABOUT THAT.
>> WE HAVE BEEN TRYING TO
DISCERN IF THERE IS SOME KIND OF
MARKET REACTION TO A CLINTON OR
TRUMP PRESIDENCY, AND IT'S HARD
TO FIGURE OUT AT THIS POINT.
IT SHOULD INVESTORS BE
CONCERNED?
HOW ARE PEOPLE TRADING IN MAKING
MONEY AND MARKETS THE THINKING
ABOUT IT?
>> WE DON'T KNOW WHAT HE WOULD
DO.
THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE HE
WOULD STAY IN THE BOUNDS OF
ANYBODY'S NOTION OF
RESPONSIBILITY.
ONE NUCLEAR WAR CAN SPOIL YOUR
WHOLE DAY.
NEVER MIND MY INVESTMENTS, HOW
ABOUT MY LIFE?
SCARLET: STICK WITH US.
WE WILL DISCUSS MORE AFTER THE
BREAK ON WHETHER IT IS TIME FOR
CENTRAL BANKS TO CHANGE COURSE
AND MOVE AWAY FROM THEIR CURRENT
MO.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪
SCARLET: WE ARE HERE WITH PAUL
KRUGMAN.
RESERVETHE FEDERAL
THINKING ABOUT A RETHINK OF
MONETARY POLICY.
FEDERAL RESERVE
KNOW WHEN IT COMES DOWN TO IT?
MUCH.
THERE IS AN ACCUMULATION OF
EVIDENCE THAT MONETARY POLICY IS
PRETTY INEFFECTIVE.
WE CAME INTO THIS THINKING
MONETARY POLICY AT ZERO RATES
WAS INEFFECTIVE, THEN QE, THEN
NEGATIVE RATES, WHICH I HAVE TO
ADMIT I DID NOT THINK WAS
POSSIBLE, BUT IT IS NOT ACTUALLY
DOING VERY MUCH.
YOU HAVE NEGATIVE RATES IN
EUROPE AND THEY STILL CAN'T MOVE
INFLATION.
MASSIVE QE, HOW MUCH GOOD DID
THAT DO?
SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE ARE
GOING BACK TO SQUARE ONE.
IT WAS THAT THE ONLY THING YOU
COULD DO TO CREDIBLY PROMISE
HIGHER INFLATION, AND ONLY BY
CHANGING, CREATING THE
IMPRESSION OF A REGIME CHANGE
EVEN AFTER RECOVERY, THAT WAS HE
ONLY WAY MONETARY POLICY WAS
GOING TO GET TRACTION, AND WE
ARE MOST OF THE WAY BACK TO THAT
VIEW RIGHT NOW.
SCARLET: WAS THE PRESIDENT OF
THE SAN FRANCISCO FED CORRECT IN
SAYING WISHES AT HIGHER
INFLATION TARGETS.
THAT FOR AEEN FOR
WHILE.
I WENT TO THE ECB RESEARCH
CONFERENCE AND SAID THAT.
THEY WERE ALL POLITE AND IGNORED
ME.
THAT'S WHERE I CAME IN AND 19 98
TALKING ABOUT JAPAN, THE SAME
THING.
JOE: WE GOT THIS NOTE FROM JOHN
WILLIAMS WHERE HE LAID OUT
POSSIBILITY FOR RETHINKING,
COMMITTED TO HIGHER INFLATION,
STABILIZERS, AND
WHEN I READ IT, I THOUGHT THIS
IS STUFF PEOPLE HAVE THEM
TALKING ABOUT FOR YEARS.
I GUESS THE REAL STORY IS THAT
IT'S COMING FROM SOMEONE SO
CENTRAL AT THE FED.
>> A LOT OF IT IS HISTORY.
THERE WAS BLOOD, SWEAT, TEARS,
AND TOYA TO GET INFLATION DOWN,
AND THE ALL SETTLED ON THIS 2%
TARGET, AND VERY HARD TO SAY
THAT MAYBE THAT WAS SET TO LOW.
THAT IS SOMETHING THEY HAVE BEEN
RELUCTANT TO RETHINK, AND EVEN
NOW.
THE FAT THAT ANYONE AT
IS WILLING TO ENTERTAIN THAT
FED IS WILLINGE
TO ENTERTAIN THAT NOTION --
SEE NEXTYOU WANT TO
WEEK?
INTERESTED INORE
READING RESEARCH PAPERS.
RADICAL RETHINK IS GOING TO
HAPPEN, IT WILL NOT HAPPEN IN
OPEN DISCUSSION ON THE FLOOR.
IT WILL HAPPEN BEHIND CLOSED
DOORS.
BLACKBALLEDVE BEEN
FROM JACKSON HOLE SINCE I
CRITICIZE ALAN GREENSPAN YEARS
AGO.
THE VALUE IS TO HAVE THE CENTRAL
BANKERS EXPOSED TO SMART
ACADEMICS.
>> WE WILL LOOK INTO THE
BLACKLISTING.
JOE: YOU WERE IN JAPAN AND MET
, I'M MINISTER SHINZO ABE
CURIOUS WHAT YOUR PRESCRIPTION
IS FOR JAPAN, AND HAVING SEEN
THE ABENOMICS EXPERIENCE OVER
THE LAST COUPLE YEARS WITH MIXED
RESULTS, WHAT IS YOUR TAKE AWAY?
WHAT DID YOU LEARN?
>> WE ARE SEEING THE LIMITS OF
MONETARY POLICY.
ABENOMICS WAS THE SUPPOSED TO BE
UNORTHODOXNSION,
MONETARY POLICY, AND FISCAL
REFORM.
THE SECOND ERROR NEVER CAME
ALONG.
THERE HAS BEEN NOTE NET FISCAL
STIMULUS.
WAS A CONSUMPTION TAX
HIKE, A BIG MISTAKE.
I WAS ONE OF THE PEOPLE WHO HELP
E NOT TO DO AB
ANOTHER ROUND.
I AM AN ADMIRER OF GOVERNOR
KURODA.
I THINK THE CENTRAL BANK OF
JAPAN HAS DONE WONDERS THINGS
GIVING ITS HISTORY AND
CONSTRAINTS, BUT HAS NOT HAD THE
BACKING OF AN EXPANSIONIST
MONETARY POLICY.
SCARLET: CAN THE BOJ GET DONE
WHAT IT NEEDS TO DO?
>> I THINK SO.
JAPAN NEEDS A HIGHER INFLATION
TARGET.
THEY NEED TO GO FURTHER.
SCARLET: ARE THEY AS CONSTRAINED
AS THE FED IS?
CONSTRAINED IN THE
SAME WAY?
>> I DON'T THINK SO.
CAN DO STUFF IN A WAY
THAT THE U.S. PRESIDENT CANNOT.
THEY HAVE DECADES OF STAGNATION.
THEY HAVE BECOME THE MOST
ADVENTUROUS POLICYMAKERS IN THE
ADVANCED WORLD.
MORE WITH PAUL KRUGMAN
AND THE STATE OF MACRO ECONOMIC
STILL AHEAD.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪
JOE:JOE: I AM HERE WITH PAUL
KRUGMAN.
TAKE, A LOT OF
DEBATE LATELY ON THE STATE OF
MACRO ECONOMICS.
YOU HAVE WRITTEN ABOUT IT.
PEOPLE COMPLAIN THE MAINSTREAM
HAS GONE OFF IN A BAD DIRECTION.
WHAT IS YOUR TAKE ON IT?
1970'S, A STRONG CRITIQUE OF
KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS, STAGFLATION
WAS A BIG SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM,
AND IN RESPONSE, EVERYBODY MOVED
OFF TOWARDS MODELS WHERE PEOPLE
RATIONAL, RUSSIAN
EXPECTATIONS, LIMITED ROLE FOR
GOVERNMENT POLICY, AND A BIG
MATHING UP.
IT HAS TURNED OUT THAT ALL OF
THOSE MODELS HAVE BEHAVED BADLY
SINCE 2007.
THEY HAVE NOT HANDLED THE EVENTS
WELL.
, OLD-FASHIONED WAYS
HAVE WORKED BETTER.
JOE: YOU HEAR TALK ABOUT
MMT SCHOOL,THE
WHERE YOU FALL ON THIS DEBATE?
>> NEITHER.
-- MACRO AS WE DID
IT FROM 1936-1970 TURNS OUT TO
HAVE A LOT OF INSIGHT TO THE
CURRENT SITUATION.
THERE ARE PLACES WHERE I AGREE
WITH THEM, BUT I DON'T NEED
THEIR APPROACH TO GET THERE.
COLLECTIVE, FOR A
USING STUFF THAT SEEMS TO WORK,
KEEPING AN OPEN MIND, KNOWING
YOUR OLD BOOKS, AND EMPIRICAL
WORK.
OF GOODEEING A LOT
EMPIRICAL WORK FROM YOUNGER
ECONOMISTS.
IN THE PRIMARY, YOU WERE
CRITICAL -- OF THE ECONOMISTS
WERE PROVIDING THE FODDER FOR
SANDERS.
WAS THAT AN UNUSUAL SITUATION
FOR YOU?
, I DID NOT OBJECT IN
PRINCIPLE TO MORE SPENDING, BUT
I DO BELIEVE IN STAYING HONEST
WITH YOUR MODELING.
I DON'T THINK IT WAS
DELIBERATELY DECEPTIVE.
I JUST DON'T THINK IT WAS
COMPETENT.
THERE WERE ASSUMPTIONS MADE THAT
WERE WILDLY IMPLAUSIBLE, NAMELY
BECAUSE THE PEOPLE DOING THEM
DID NOT KNOW THEIR STUFF.
KRUGMAN, THANK YOU FOR
JOINING US, FASCINATING
DISCUSSIONS ON THIS.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
SCARLET: COMING UP, FROM ONE
NOTED ECONOMIST TO ANOTHER,
AROUND THE WORLD WITH GEORGE
MAGNUS OF UBS, DISCUSSING
CHINA'S ECONOMY.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪
"WHAT'D YOU MISS?"
FIRST WORD NEWS.
NOT SURE WHY DONALD
TRUMP'S CAMPAIGN IS STRUGGLING
TO STAY ON MESSAGE, BUT STILL
BELIEVES THAT DONALD TRUMP IS
AMERICA'S BEST OPTION FOR THE
WHITE HOUSE.
HE SPOKE IN AN EXCLUSIVE
INTERVIEW WITH BLOOMBERG >>.
>>I WOULD LIKE TO SEE TRUMP WIN
THIS BECAUSE HE'S THE ONLY HOPE
TO SAVE AMERICA IS THE WAY WE
KNOW IT.
MARK: HE ALSO SAID HE'S
CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY OF
FORMING A SUPER PAC, BUT
CAUTIONED IT IS NOT A CERTAINTY.
THE UNITED NATIONS IS "GRAVELY
CONCERNED ABOUT THE SAFETY OF
CIVILIANS, INCLUDING THOUSANDS
OF CHILDREN AND ALEPPO."
SYRIAN OPPOSITION
MONITORING GROUP SAID AIRSTRIKES
ON REBEL HELD PARTS OF THE CITY
LEFT 15 CIVILIANS DEAD AND MANY
OTHERS WOUNDED.
THE EUROPEAN AVIATION SAFETY
AGENCY IS PROPOSING MEDICAL
, WANTING PILOTS
RESULTS FROM DRUG AND ALCOHOL
SCREENINGS INCLUDED IN MENTAL
HEALTH ASSESSMENTS AND A BETTER
SYSTEM ON KEEPING TABS ON PILOTS
WITH MENTAL ISSUES.
A GERMANWINGS PILOT CRASHED THE
PLANE INTO A MOUNTAIN IN THE
FRENCH ALPS, KILLING 150 PEOPLE
ON BOARD.
FEWER PEOPLE IN THE UNITED
STATES ARE GETTING FOOD STAMPS.
ENROLLMENT IS DOWN 9% FROM ITS
THAN 43 MILLION.
ONE REASON, SEVEN STATES ARE
ENDING BENEFITS EARLIER THAN
THEY HAVE TO.
ARE ALMOST TWICE AS MANY
AMERICANS GETTING FOOD STAMPS AS
THERE WERE BEFORE THE RECESSION.
GLOBAL NEWS 24 HOURS A DAY
POWERED BY MORE THAN 2600
JOURNALISTS AND ANALYSTS IN MORE
THAN 120 COUNTRIES.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
SCARLET: THANK YOU.
U.S. STOCKS, LET'S GET A RECAP.
FALLING, DOLLAR DID PAIR
OFFICIAL COMMENT
SPURRING SPECULATION ON HIRING
BORROWING COSTS AS THE DATA
TODAY SHOW THE RECOVERY IS
UNEVEN.
THE INDEXES DECLINED FROM RECORD
HIGHS.
UNDER 13.S STILL
"WHAT'D YOU MISS?"
VOLATILITY IN THE YUAN HAS
DROPPED TO THE LOWEST LEVEL.
NATION CENTRAL BANK IN
CONTROL?
JOINING ME NOW FROM LONDON IS
GEORGE MAGNUS.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
CHINA'SATER, IS
MONETARY POLICY AND CURRENCY
POLICY ON A MORE SOUND FOOTING?
KEEL IS ON AN EVEN
COMPARED WITH THIS TIME LAST
YEAR.
AT THE TURN OF THE YEAR, WE HAD
PANIC FOR MUCHOF
THE SAME REASON IN DECEMBER AND
JANUARY.
THE PBOC INTRODUCED A BASKET,
TRYING TO MANAGE THE THE
CURRENCY, AND DECEMBER, CAPITAL
CONTROLS OF BEEN TIGHTENED, THE
ECONOMY IS LOOKING MORE STABLE
THANKS TO ROBUST STIMULUS
, SO FOR THEODUCED
TIME BEING, THINGS CERTAINLY
MORE CALM.
ARE YOU OF THE OPINION
THAT WE SHOULD BE PAYING CLOSER
ATTENTION TO THE SIGNALING OF
THE UNDERLYING CHINESE ECONOMY
OR ARE THINGS THAT STRONG THAT
WE CAN MOVE ON AND MOVE PAST THE
DEPRECIATION?
>> MY FEELING IS THAT IF GLOBAL
WERE GUILTY OF
OVERREACTING IN AUGUST LAST YEAR
AND JANUARY THIS YEAR, THEN I
THINK AT THE MOMENT THAT THEY
ARE BEING A LITTLE COMPLACENT.
MAYBE MARKETS HAVE HAD JUST TOO
MANY THINGS TO THINK ABOUT, FED
EXIT.Y, BR
AT THINGS HAVEIN
LMED IN THE CHINESE MARKET
IS BECAUSE OF AN EXTERNAL GROWTH
IN CREDIT AND A BIG FISCAL BOOST
WITH THE SHARE OF GOVERNMENT
SPENDING RISING THREE PERCENTAGE
POINTS OF GDP AND LAST 18
MONTHS.
A LOT OF INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING
, COMPENSATING FOR THE DECLINE
IN PRIVATE INVESTMENT FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE RECORDS BEGAN,
SO THE PROBLEM IS THAT THESE
THINGS WON'T BE ABLE TO
CONTINUE.
THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT WON'T BE
ABLE TO SUSTAIN THESE THINGS.
DISSENSIONSME GREAT
GOING ON WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT
AS TO WHETHER THEY SHOULD BE
PURSUING THESE POLICIES IN THE
FIRST PLACE, SO MY HUNCH IS THAT
THINGS WILL START TO SLOW DOWN
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
YEAR IN THE ECONOMY, AND THE
RENMINBI WILL WEAKEN AGAIN.
WHAT IS THE COST OF
CHINA MAINTAINING STABILITY AT
ALL COSTS?
COST IS THAT IN THE SHORT
RUN, WHICH IS TO SAY FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WE HAVE
EXACTLY THIS KIND OF SITUATION
WHERE NOBODY REALLY PAYS A HUGE
AMOUNT OF ATTENTION TO WHAT IS
BUT AS MOST ECONOMISTS
WOULD PROBABLY RECOGNIZE OR
CONCEDE, AND THE LONGER THE
AND POLICY STANCE
CONTINUES WITH CREDIT GROWING TO
TIMES OR THREE TIMES THE AMOUNT
OF NOMINAL GDP AND WITH FISCAL
STIMULUS AS WELL, THE BIGGER THE
AND THEIRADJUSTMENT
RISK OF A FINANCIAL INSTABILITY
IS GOING TO BE, PERHAPS AT A
TIME WHEN THE CHINESE WOULD NOT
BEOSE IT, AND THE YEAR WILL
REALLY IMPORTANT BECAUSE AT THE
END OF 2017, THE 19TH CONGRESS,
TO PUTE PRESIDENT
IT BEFORE HIS PEOPLE.
THE LONGER YOU DON'T ROCK THE
BOAT, THE ROUGHER IT IS LIKELY
TO BECOME.
THIS IS SOMETHING WE HAVE SEEN
AND OUR OWN EXPERIENCE, AND
CHINA IS LOOKING TO BE HEADED IN
THE SAME WAY.
SOMETHING YOU SAID ABOUT
THE NARRATIVE ON CHINA STABILITY
GETTING STALE, THE CITY'S
SURPRISE INDEX FOR
CHINA TOOK A SHARP LEG DOWN
AFTER MEDIOCRE RETAIL SALES,
, SO WE ARE ALREADY
SEEING THE INABILITY FOR CHINA
TO HOLD UP THAT CREDIT AND
FISCAL DRIVEN STABILITY THAT WAS
A STORY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE YEAR?
>> YES, THAT IS RIGHT.
THE SECONDARY STORY AWAY FROM
THE HEADLINES IS THAT THE MORE
THE ECONOMY CONTINUES TO SEVCON
CENTCOM
DO NEXT THEY GOING TO
TIME?
WILL THEY INCREASE FISCAL
SPENDING FURTHER, CUT INTEREST
RATES AT A TIME WHEN THE ECONOMY
DOES NOT NEED IT?
ARE THEY GOING TO ALLOW CREDIT
TO GROW?
THESE ARE ISSUES WHICH WERE
A SO-CALLED AUTHORITY
OF SOURCE THAT EVERYBODY
UNDERSTANDS AS CLOSE TO THE
PRESIDENT IN MAY, AND NOTHING
HAS HAPPENED.
THIS IS THE ISSUE REALLY.
IT IS JUST NOT SUSTAINABLE, AND
THE LONGER THE GOVERNMENT TRIES
TO STICK TO THIS OLD MODEL OF
KEEPING THE ECONOMY GOING AT ANY
6.5%, SUBSCRIBING TO THE
TO 7% GDP TARGET, THE MORE
DAMAGING IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME.
ONLY PREDICT WITH
CERTAINTY THAT IT HAS A LIFESPAN
OF THREE MONTH'S OR FOUR MONTHS,
THAT WOULD BE SO MUCH EASIER AS
AN INVESTOR, BUT YOU CAN'T DO
THAT.
IT IS LIABLE TO ERUPT AT SOME
POINT AND COULD BE WITHIN THREE
MONTH'S OR 13 MONTHS, VERY
DIFFICULT TO SAY.
SCARLET: IT IS KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE ROAD.
GEORGE MAGNUS OF UBS WILL STAY
WITH US.
VOTE WITHPOST-BREXIT
A SPOTLIGHT ON TRADE.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪
OLIVER: IT IS TIME FOR THE
BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH, SOME
OF THE BIGGEST BUSINESS STORIES
IN THE NEWS.
VOLUME, AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE
BY FORD IN 2021, SKIPPING
INTERIM STEPS OF DRIVER ASSISTED
AND MATCH BMW.
THE SECOND-BIGGEST U.S.
AUTOMAKER IS WORKING WITH 40
STARTUPS IN ADDITION TO
EXPANDING ITS SILICON VALLEY
OPERATIONS.
MORPH INTO A TO
MULTIPURPOSE TRIP PLANNER.
TESTING A NEW MOBILE APP
TENTATIVELY NAMED AIRBNB TRIPS,
PERSONAL ITINERARIES,
INFORMATION ABOUT RENTALS,
DINING, AND HAPPY HOUR EVEN'S.
ITSE PLANNING TO INCREASE
CHINA INVESTMENTS AND
PARTICIPATE IN THE COUNTRIES
INTERNET PLUS STRATEGY.
TIM COOK MADE THE ANNOUNCEMENT
TODAY DURING A MEETING WITH THE
CHINESE VICE PREMIER.
REPORTS THAT APPLE IS SETTING UP
AN INDEPENDENT RESEARCH AND
DEVELOPMENT CENTER IN CHINA
BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR.
THAT IS THE BLOOMBERG BUSINESS
FLASH.
SCARLET: I AM SCARLET FU.
"WHAT'D YOU MISS?"
U.K. INFLATION ACCELERATED
FASTER THAN FORECAST.
TWO SIGNS THAT THE POUND'S
POST-REFERENDUM DECLINE IS
PUSHING UP PRICES.
FOR MORE NOW, WE ARE BACK WITH
THE GEORGE MAGNUS.
WE ARE GETTING THESE DATA POINTS
INDICATING THE VOTE AND
A RESULTE HIT THAT WAS
AFFECTING THE U.K. ECONOMY.
MEANTIME, THE TIMETABLE TO
NEGOTIATE IS GETTING LONGER,
MORE PROTRACTED AND COMPLEX.
WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A BREXIT FROM THE
EU?
HAS THAT DECREASED?
ANSWER THATCOULD
QUESTION.
IT'S THE SAME QUESTION ALL 65
MILLION OF US ARE ASKING, NOT TO
MENTION EUROPE.
IF YOU CAST YOUR MIND BACK
BRIEFLY BEFORE THE REFERENDUM,
POLITICIANS SAYING THAT IF THE
VOTE IS NO, WE WILL HAVE TO GIVE
NOTION OF OUR INTENTION TO QUIT
THE DAY AFTER THE REFERENDUM
, AND THAT DIDN'T
HAPPEN.
IN JULY, PEOPLE WERE TALKING
ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF
TRIGGERING THE SO-CALLED ARTICLE
YEAR,ORE THE END OF THE
AND THAT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN
NOW BECAUSE THERESA MAY HAS SAID
IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL SOMETIME IN
2017.
NOW WE ARE SEEING ALL SORTS OF
THEUSSIONS GOING ON WITH
GOVERNMENT OF SCOTLAND,
GOVERNMENT OF NORTHERN IRELAND,
THE GERMANS AND FRENCH HAVE
ELECTIONS IN 2017 IN MARCH AND
SEPTEMBER, SO THERE IS A
SPORTING CHANCE THAT THE
NEGOTIATIONS WON'T GET GOING
UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT YEAR,
AND MAYBE NOT UNTIL THE END OF
NEXT YEAR, IF AT ALL, SO PEOPLE
ARE BEGINNING TO UNDERSTAND A
LITTLE BIT MORE NOW.
ARGUABLY THEY SHOULD HAVE DONE
SO BEFORE THE REFERENDUM TOOK
LACE, BUT PEOPLE ARE BEGINNING
TO UNDERSTAND ABOUT HOW IN NORMS
THE COMPLEX AND TIME-CONSUMING
THIS IS ALL GOING TO BE.
WE JUST FLASHED THE
LINEUP OF DATA IN THE U.K.,
UNEMPLOYMENT, RETAIL, AND
LARGELY THE MARKET IS LOOKING AT
THESE NUMBERS TO FIGURE OUT WHAT
IS GOING TO GO WRONG AND HOW BAD
BREXIT WILL BE, BUT WHEN YOU SEE
, IS THERES DOING WELL
A CHANCE HERE THAT PERHAPS THERE
WILL BE A CERTAIN POINT THAT WE
CAN SAY THE DATA IS NOT CROPPING
UP YET AND MAY BE THE FALLOUT IS
NOT AS BAD AS WE EXPECTED?
>> THAT IS A GOOD QUESTION, AND
B ANSWER.A AND
VOTE AFFECTS THE
POTENTIAL LEVEL OF DEMAND IN THE
ECONOMY.
WE HAVE NOT HAD ANYTHING OTHER
THAN ANECDOTE ABOUT WHAT IS
,OING ON IN THE REAL ECONOMY
AND IT IS ONLY A MONTHS WORTH OF
DATA, SO WE WON'T GET A REAL
FEEL FOR THIS UNTIL OCTOBER.
THE DOE CONCERN IN THE
GOVERNMENT'S CONCERN HERE IS
THAT WE COULD GET TIPPED INTO A
RECESSION IF INVESTMENT SPENDING
AND EMPLOYMENT HIRES, IF THESE
THINGS DRY UP, THEN WE WILL GO
OVER THE EDGE.
THAT IS A POSSIBILITY.
IT IS BY NO MEANS A SHOE IN.
I DON'T WANT TO DIMINISH THIS OR
SAY THAT IT IS NOT IMPORTANT,
BUT IF WE DID HAVE A RECESSION,
IT WOULD NOT BE A 2008-2009 KIND
OF DOWNTURN, BECAUSE THE BANKING
SYSTEM IS FUNDAMENTALLY OK, SO
WE WERE NOT HAVE CREDIT
KIND OFN, THAT
DOWNTURN, AND WE WOULD RECOVER
FROM A BUSINESS DOWNTURN WITHIN
A REASONABLE TIME.
IN MY VIEW IS MUCH MORE
IMPORTANT, THE ECONOMY'S
POTENTIAL TO GROW OVER THE NEXT
5-10 YEARS.
IF WE SCREW UP AND MAKE A MESS
, BOTHDE AND INVESTMENT
BRITISH COMPANIES AND FOREIGN
COMPANIES THAT WANT TO SET UP IN
THE U.K., IF WE RESTRICT THE
IMPORTED SKILLED LABOR, THESE
ARE THE THINGS THAT WILL REALLY
IMPACT THE BRITISH ECONOMY'S
SATISFACTORILY,
AND THAT WOULD BE MUCH MORE
DANGEROUS THAN SIX MONTHS OF A
RECESSION.
JOE: SOME OF THE PRO-BREXIT
CAMPAIGNERS SAID IT IS OK IF WE
LEAVE OF THE COMMON MARKET
BECAUSE COUNTRIES WILL BE
BEATING DOWN OUR DOOR AND WE
WILL SIGN ALL THESE BILATERAL
TRADE AS WE WEREN'T ALLOWED TO
SIGN WHEN WE WERE PART OF THE
EU.
WHAT DO YOU THINK THE U.K.
TRADING RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
REST OF THE WORLD WILL LOOK LIKE
AFTER IT LEAVES THE EU?
DILUDED.K THAT IS ALL
PEOPLE HAVE THE IDEA THAT
THE WORLD IS A WONDERFUL PLACE
,O DO BUSINESS AND TRADE
SEVERAL BRITISH MINISTERS AND
POLITICIANS HAVE SAID THE WORLD
IS LINING UP TO DO TRADE DEALS
WITH BRITAIN, BUT THE REALITY IS
QUITE DIFFERENT.
AND WORLD FUNK,
EXPORT CLAIMS ARE 15% BELOW THE
TREND LINE WE WOULD HAVE SEEN IF
THE FINANCIAL CRISIS HAD NOT
HAPPENED.
THAT IS NUMBER ONE.
NUMBER TWO, IS PROTECTIONISM IS
RISING IN WAYS THAT MOST PEOPLE
DON'T SEE, AND THE REASON THEY
DON'T SEE IT IS NOT BECAUSE OF
TERRORISTS, BUT BECAUSE OF
THAT ISFF BARRIERS
GATHERING MOMENTUM THROUGHOUT
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.
OF THE PERPETRATORS ARE
G-20 ECONOMIES THAT WE WANT TO
DO OUR TRADING WITH.
THE THIRD THING IS THAT THE
BRITISH ECONOMY DEPENDS A LOT ON
SERVICES EXPORTS.
SERVICES TO OF OUR
THE EU, THE UNITED STATES, AND
JAPAN.
WE WILL NOT BE SELLING A LOT OF
SERVICES TO THE CHINESE COME THE
INDIANS, AND EMERGING COUNTRIES.
IF THESE NONTARIFF BARRIERS COME
INTO EFFECT, THEY WILL BE A BIG
PRICE TO PAY.
JOE: GEORGE MAGNUS, THANK YOU
VERY MUCH.
SCARLET: COMING UP, A NEW POLL
SHOWS DONALD TRUMP TRAILING
HILLARY CLINTON BY WIDE MARGINS
IN VIRGINIA AND FLORIDA.
IS IT TOO LATE FOR DONALD TRUMP
TO TURN IT ALL AROUND?
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪
HILLARY CLINTON IS
EXPANDING HER LEAD INTO HE
BATTLED GROUND STATES.
A WASHINGTON POST POLL SHOWS
CLINTON WITH A 14 POINT LEAD
OVER TRUMP AND VIRGINIA.
A NEW POLL HAS THE DEMOCRAT UP
BY NINE POINTS IN FLORIDA.
LET'S FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING
ON.
WELCOME.
WHAT GIVES ON THE LATEST POLL?
ANYTHING HAPPENED BETWEEN LAST
TIME AND NOW?
IS GETTING WORSE FOR
TRUMP.
VIRGINIA IS STARTING TO LOOK OUT
OF REACH.
I THINK HIS CAMPAIGN IS MORE
WORRIED ABOUT THE POLLS IN
FLORIDA.
OLIVER: TRUMP THROUGH THE
PRIMARIES WAS ALL ABOUT THE
POLLING, BUT NOW HE'S NOT
TALKING ABOUT IT SO MUCH.
IS HE GIVING ANY COMMENTARY ON
THE LATEST NUMBERS?
LIKE HE IS
RECONCILING HIMSELF TO THE IDEA
THAT HE MIGHT JUST LOSE.
A COUPLE OFONED
TIMES THAT IF HE LOSES, HE WILL
TAKE A LONG VACATION.
IT'S INTERESTING THAT SOME OF
HIS SUPPORTERS ARE DISMISSING A
LOT OF THESE POLLS AND INSISTING
THAT RALLY ATTENDANCE IS A
BETTER MEASURE OF SUPPORT FOR
EVENANDIDATE THAN POLLING,
THOUGH THE POLLING WAS QUITE
ACCURATE DURING THE PRIMARIES
WHEN IT SAID HE WOULD WIN, AND
HE DID.
JOE: YOU SOUND A LITTLE
SKEPTICAL OF THE RALLY MEASURES.
THERE HAS BEEN TALK OF THE
PEOPLE URGING THE RNC TO CUT AND
RUN TO AVOID A DOWN BALLOT
BLOODBATH.
DO YOU SEE ANY CHANCE OF THAT
HAPPENING?
IT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO ME.
THAT WOULD BE A MAJOR DEPARTURE
FOR THENDARDS AND NORMS
PARTY COMMITTEE TO ABANDON THE
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE AND
TIREDLY.
-- CANDIDATE ENTIRELY.
THERE WAS SOME REPORTING THAT
THE CHAIRMAN WOULD DO THAT
UNLESS HE ENDORSED PAUL RYAN,
AND THEN DONALD TRUMP CAME OUT
AND ENDORSED HIM.
I THINK HE WILL HAVE THE PARTY
SUPPORT THROUGH THE ELECTION.
FOR DONALDAT IS NEXT
TRUMP, I FOREIGN POLICY SPEECH,
AND ECONOMIC POLICY SPEECH.
TO BE PUTTING A
LOT OF STOCK INTO CAMPAIGNING IN
PLACES LIKE VIRGINIA, SO HOW
DOES HE TURN THE MOMENTUM
AROUND?
TONIGHT HE IS IN WISCONSIN,
ANOTHER STATE MOVING RAPIDLY OUT
OF REACH FOR HIM, SO HE'S NOT
ABANDONING THE CHANCE TO WIN IN
THESE PLACES.
THEY ARE LOOKING AT THE
UPCOMING DEBATES AS THE NEXT KEY
TURNING POINT IN THIS CAMPAIGN.
HE HAS TO WIN THE DEBATES ARE
PROBABLY HIS CAMPAIGN IS OVER.
JOE: THANK YOU FOR THE UPDATE.
SCARLET: COMING UP, WHICH YOU
NEED TO KNOW TO CARE OF FOR
TOMORROW'S TRADING DAY.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪
SCARLET: DON'T MISS THIS.
U.K. UNEMPLOYMENT AND AVERAGE
WEEKLY EARNINGS TOMORROW
MORNING.
OLIVER: TARGET EARNINGS TOMORROW
AT 8:00 A.M.
JOE: I WILL BE LOOKING AT FED
MINUTES OUT TOMORROW AT 2:00
P.M..
THE ODDS OF A SEPTEMBER HIKE
LOW, THE ODDS OF A HIKE THIS
YEAR DIMINISH, BUT WE WILL GET A
SENSE OF HOW THEY SEE RISKS TO
THE ECONOMY AND THE OUTLOOK.
SCARLET: A LOT HAS CHANGED SINCE
THEN.
JOE: WE HAD STRONG DATA, RETAIL
SALES DATA, QUESTIONABLE CPI
DATA THIS MORNING, SO A LOT TO
GO THROUGH.
ISVER: EVEN THOUGH SENTIMENT
NOTHING WILL HAPPEN, THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A RATE HIKE HAS
GONE UP SCARLET: A LITTLE BIT.
THAT IS IT FOR "WHAT'D YOU
MISS?"
.
JOE: HAVE A GREAT EVENING.
THIS IS BLOOMBERG.
♪