Name: 我們怎麼能知道什麼是真正的真相呢？ (How can we know what's really true?)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T06:27:22.000Z
Duration: 18 min 52 s

Let's say if we have this many of something, we'll call it "one", and represent it

假設我們現在這裡有這一堆東西，我們稱之為一， 並且用

with this symbol. If we have this many, we'll call it "two", and use this this symbol.

這個符號來代表它。再來，我們現在這裡有這另一堆東西，我們稱之為二，並且用這個符號來代表它

If there's none. If there's a certain amount of something and that amount is…

現在假設我們一無所有。我們現在有「一堆東西」， 而這堆東西的總數量為「無」

none many, we'll call it zero and use this symbol. This many, call it three. Duh duh

我們稱之為， 並用這個符號代表它。這裡這一堆，我們稱之為三，由此類推

duh duh duh. If there's this many, we'll call it ten. And we're all out of symbols.

有這麼多的話，我們稱之為十。接下來，我們已經沒有可以使用的符號了

So we'll just start reusing symbols. And so on. This is a way, we can represent quantities

所以我們只能重複使用已經用過的符號了。透過利用文字與符號，我們就能夠

with words and symbols. And we represent lots of properties with words.

表示物品的「量」了。另一方面，在日常生活中，我們利用文字來代表很多東西的「特性」

Like redness. They can have shapes. Things can be cold. Scattered or patterned. They can

像是：某個東西是「紅的」; 東西的「形狀」; 東西可能是「冷冰冰的」; 「零星的」或「有規則可循的」

be wooden or wet. Even though 2 things are shaped differently

「木製的」或「濕答答」的。就算某兩個東西形狀上不太一樣

and are made of different materials we may still call them by the same name because of

我們還是會因為這兩個東西擁有

other characteristics. Things can have movements or behaviours. And

其他 「相同」的特質，進而用同樣的名稱來稱呼這兩個東西。有些東西會移動或有所行為

we can have descriptions that only come when we're comparing or looking at multiple things.

有些形容的用語，是只會在我們比較複數個東西的時候會用到的

Any characteristic, property, or concept that we think about something, we always also have

我們有詞彙能夠述說任何特質、特性、或概念

a word for it. …I think … that might not be right.

我是這樣想的啦…雖然說這種說法不一定正確就是了

Try to think of something that exists, in a way that you can't describe with words.

試著想像一個真實存在，我們卻難以用言語來形容的東西

If you're not talking... we'll know that idea was wrong.

如果你現在真的沒有辦法描述這個東西的話，那就代表「我們有詞彙能夠述說任何特質、特性、或概念」這個說法就被推翻了

When light bounces off an object, the light can be directed by a lens to form an image.

當光接觸到物體，然後彈射開，再接觸到鏡體的時候，在這道光和鏡體的相互作用下，會產生所謂的「影像」

A lens in the eye does this and creates an image at the back of the eye where we have

我們眼睛裡的水晶體就是透過這樣的一個作用，進而在我們眼睛的後方形成影像 (在眼睛後方的神經細胞

an array of neuron cells that detect the light and send the information on the image to the

會探測到光，然後再把形成的影像的訊息傳送到我們腦袋裡)

brain. And it's a similar story for your other sensory cells that pick up other stuff.

其實，我們身上其他的感知器官的運作方式也都差不多是這樣的

From there your brain tries to make sense of the signals, classifying concepts and trying

當腦袋接受到訊息後，它自己就會試圖分析並解釋所收到的訊息，再來就是把訊息裡的概念分門別類，然後

to build a model of what it's observing. I don't know how that works exactly. How

嘗試針對所觀察到的現象，建立起一個模型。我也不太確定這整個過程是怎麼運作的

neurons connecting to neurons becomes conscious concepts like white duck jumping.

這些神經到底是如何在我們的意識裡像白色小鴨那樣跳來跳去的，形成一個概念呢？

Should probably ask like a brainologist. But for now, let's say our goal is we want

我們可能需要找一位腦科學家來幫我們解答吧。現在呢，我們有個想要達成的目標，

the concepts or pictures that we build in our mind to be the same as the world outside.

就是我們想要「我們腦海裡的概念和影像」跟「外在世界的概念和影像」達到一致化

We want to accurately "recreate" the universe (or at least a part of it), into our brains.

換句話說，我們來試試看在我們的腦裡「重新創造」這整個宇宙 (或者至少是這個宇宙的一部分)

We don't want to be wrong. How do we do it?

弄錯了就不好了，可是我們到底該怎麼做才好呢?

Well, observations are the start. If we want to know what the world is like, looking directly

我們就從「觀察」開始好了。話說如果我們想要知道這個世界的樣貌的話

at it, is really going to give us the best idea.

But at the same time there's a lot of signals that our sensory cells and brains have trouble

可是就在此同時，我們其他的感知器官還有大腦也會受到其他

with. Like certain wavelengths of light and sound. Things that are too small. Or too far

各式各樣的干擾。像是某些特定光線或聲音的波長，又或者是東西太小，太遠

away. Or too fast. It can be hard to see an individual part if there's too much stuff

又或者是太遠的話，都會對我們的觀察造成干擾。我們觀察的東西裡

going on in the background. If there's too much noise.

如果「背景干擾因素」太多的話, 也會讓我們沒有辦法看到比較小的細節

We can have trouble processing things even when they're right in front of us. Like

這種時候，就算我們要觀察的東西就在面前，我們的腦袋也會變得沒有辦法好好的處理我們所觀察到的東西

a face with the eyes and mouth upside down. Goes from "happy birthday Mr.President"

就拿這裡的這張臉來說好了：眼睛和嘴巴都是上下顛倒的。整個感覺從本來的 「水姑娘喔，照過來照過來」

to "my sister and mother are the same person". The haphazard way our brains and senses evolved

變成 「小姐不好意思，請問妳哪位?」  大腦的演化過程太過雜亂，所以導致我們的

to be wired didn't give us a perfect accuracy, perception or memory.

準確性、察覺力或記憶並不盡完美

But we can use tools to detect things we can't detect. Microscopes for things that are too

可是如果我們善用工具的話，我們就可以觀察到一些我們本來沒辦法觀察到的用來觀察太細小的東西用的東西; 像是顯微鏡就是

small, telescopes for things that are too far away. A tool that detect bits of radiation and

而望遠鏡就則是用來觀察太遠的東西; 而這一幕裡面的這個工具呢，則是用來探測輻射能

plays a fun noise. And instead of trying to remember and communicate

有時候還會跑出一些奇怪的噪音; 沒有一套公制的單位的話，我們只能依靠感覺來記憶和傳達

properties by feel, we can have this thing we call a centimeter. Just count how many

物體的長度，所以我們制定了「公分」這套系統。有了這套系統，我們就

centimeters are the same length as this other thing. And we can use whatever standard of

可以算出某物件有幾公分了。依照目的和需求的不同，我們需要

comparison we need. And we can try to always go slowly and systematically.

使用的比較標準也不一樣。有了這些公定的系統，我們就能夠仔細又有系統性的計算東西了

But some people, after they've had the neurons in a part of their brain die, they may no

有些人的話，在他們腦裡某部分的神經元受損死去後，這些患者

longer perceive faces. They may not be able recognize their friends and family, celebrities,

就會變得沒有辦法判讀人臉了; 包括朋友、家人、名人

or themselves. They can still see eyes and noses and mouths, and describe their layout.

甚至是這些患者自身的臉。由於光還是由在進到這些患者的眼睛裡

The signal about the light is still coming in. But the brain no longer classifies this

患者還是有辦法判讀眼睛、鼻子還有嘴巴，並且形容這些器官的排列，可是呢

arrangement we call a face. In the end there may be a lot of things like

這些患者們的大腦就是沒辦法把這些器官組合成我們所謂的「臉」。而這個世界上可能就存在著很多這樣雜亂的資訊…

this… useful classifications about the universe, that all of our brains can't conceptualize.

這些資訊本身的排列組合沒有問題，只是我們的大腦沒有辦法內化這些資訊並且把其轉換為有意義的概念

But the point is because those signals coming into the brain from the sensory cells, are

我們要留意一點：「訊號透過我們的感知系統進入我們大腦」這個過程

the only way information can get into the brain. Observations are the only way of really

是外界的資訊要進入我們大腦唯一的管道。我們唯一可以了解這個世界的方法

knowing what the universe is like. But we can also, come to new ideas by playing

就是透過觀察。另一方面，透過溫故知新

around with old ones. For example we call this many six, and this

我們也能夠得到一些新的想法。比方說，我們把這裡這一堆東西叫做 「六」然後

many four. But we can also frame them together. Then what do we get? Well we already have

另外這一堆叫做「四」。現在我們把這兩堆東西放一起。我們得到的結果是什麼呢？其實

a word for that amount, we call that ten. Split it in half, how do we describe that?

我們已經有文字可以代表這個數量，我們稱之為 「十」。現在，把「十」這個量一分為二，我們又該如何描述「這個數量」?

Make a sort of square array out of it, can we describe that quantity?

我們又把上面得到的「這個數量」，用來組成這樣一個正方排列的話，我們能夠描述這個新的數量嗎?

OK, "five times five equals twenty five", isn't an "observation". It's more a play on our

「5乘以5等於25」這個結果其實並不是透過「觀察」而得到的，而是透過

"definitions". Its 'a statement that: according to our naming scheme, five times five, and

我們對於這個等式的「定義」而得到的。「5乘以5等於25」所表達的其實是：根據我們所定下的慣例

twenty five, refer to the same thing. Or let's say we notice that a parallelogram

「5乘以5」和「25」所代表的意思一樣。又或者我們再打個比方好了：某平行四邊形，

always has the same area as a square. If the parallelogram always has the same base length.

不管在什麼情況下，和某正方形的面積都是一致的。如果說，不管在什麼情況下

And height. Then we can look at the squares and play around.

這個平行四邊形的底邊和高度都維持不變， 那接下來我們就來看一看，順便操弄一下圖裡這個三角形所衍生出的這些正方形

Go bushoomp, bushoomp, bushoomp... OK, taking what we knew (about the parallelogram and the square) we can come to a new

像這樣變啊變，移啊移，移啊移… 就這樣，建立在（我們對於平行四邊形和正方形的）已知的認知上，我們可以不用透過「觀察」就可以得到這樣極有用的架構 (model)。個人覺得先知們應該不會

useful model without having "observed" it first. I don't think this is how they actually

真的是這樣發現「畢式定律」的，可是搞不好

found this equation but they could have. We can do something like: if everything that

他們真的就是這樣發現的也說不定。再來看看下面這個情境好了：

we call a Flaggle is blue. And everything that we call a Beener is a Flaggle. If that's

現在我們所稱為 “Flaggle” 的東西都是藍色的; 而所有我們稱之為 “Beener” 的東西，都隸屬於 “Flaggle” 這個大框架之下

the information that we know, then we should also be able to know that every Beener is

根據以上資訊來看的話，我們可以得知所有的 “Beener”都是藍色的

blue. Even when they (Flaggle and Beener) are nonsense words, the new ideas we come to make sense. Because

雖然 “Flaggle” 和 “Beener” 都是虛構的字，在這個情境裡，我們所思考到的概念卻是完完全全可以說得通的

it's creating a world in our mind and seeing what we would absolutely have to observe in

因為基於我們所定下的規則，這些概念在我們的腦海裡架構出了一個全新的思維，而這些概念也讓我們觀察到我們所想要觀察到的

that world, because of the rules that we set. So if we build our rules and definitions and

故此，如果我們把規則、定義及想法建構在觀察之上的話，我們就能夠

ideas based on observations, we can form new ideas and models that actually describe and

得出與現實相符且確切描述現實的全新想法

match the real world. OK this is deduction. But we can't always describe the world with

以上這套說法是所謂的「刪去法」，可是在現實生活的很多情境當中

this much certainty. For example, if we start rolling this dice

無法事事都如此精準。假設我們現在有顆骰子

and we put it in with our eyes closed or something. There's no way we could ever know, ahead

我們先把眼睛閉起來，然後把骰子放到容器裡搖一搖，我們永遠

of time, what face will turn up when we stop rolling it. What do we know?

都無法事先知道骰子的哪一面會出現。在這個情境下，我們先來細數我們已經掌握的情報有哪些:

There are 6 sides, Only 6 possibilities for what will be turned up. Perfectly cubed, perfectly

一顆骰子有6面，可能會出現的結果只有6種。骰子本身是完整的立方體

balanced. (Considering these factors) we don't have any reason to think one of the sides is going to turn up more

且每一面皆是平衡的。(在以上這些事實的考量下) 我們並沒有任何理由

or less than the others. Let's represent the likelihood of each event

去懷疑任何一面出現的機率會大於或小於其他五面。現在我們確定一件事情：把所有狀況發生的可能性加總之後

occurring as being a certain proportion of all the possibilities. Added together they

就會得到所謂的「總體可能性」，而把這些機率總和後

will equal 100%. In this case we think each one has an equal probability of occurring

我們就會得到100%。由此我們可以理解到，每個面會出現的機率是相等的

so they're just one sixth of one hundred percent.

So we might say, rolling a 3 has a probability of decimal one six seven. Or of all the things

所以我們可以這麼結論：擲出3點的機率是 0.167

that could happen, rolling a 3 is 16.7% of those possibilities. Or we would expect to

又或者我們也可以這樣說：在所有可能會出現的情況下，擲出3點的機率為總機率的16.7%。我們又可以說：

see a 3 about one sixth of the time. This is all we can do, we don't know what's

我們有六分之一的機率可以看到3點。在我們無法準確知道結果會是什麼的時候，我們所能做的

going to happen so we describe the possibilities. What are the odds of rolling a total of 3

就是以機率來描述事情。當我們手上有兩顆骰子的時候，擲出點數的總和

when rolling 2 dice? Each dice has the six possibilities, their outcome is independent

為3的機率是多少? 一顆骰子有6面，而可能會出現的結果有6種，且一顆骰子會出現什麼樣的結果

of one another and we can get any combination between them. Each combination having an equal

跟另一顆骰子所出現的結果並沒有任何關係，所以我們從這兩顆骰子所得到的總和是隨機的。故此，任何一總總和出現的機率

probability of occurring. These are all the possible mutually exclusive dice rolls. So,

都是一樣的。現在這裡所顯示的，就是擲出兩顆骰子時所有可能會發生的情況。也就是說

we've got these 2 ways of rolling a 3, of 36 possible rolls. There is a 5.6% chance

36種不同的情況中，能擲出總和點數為3的情況有兩種。所以說，擲出總和點數為3機率

of rolling a 3. Anyways. We've got observation and deduction

是5.6%。說到這裡，「觀察」和「刪除法」

to form an idea about the world. And they're good, you know they're pretty good. But

幫助我們掌握到我們周遭的現象。這兩個方法都很好，可能大家也都覺得不錯

this other way we can form an idea, is by guessing. Just imagine the way the world is (with all its possibilities, and perhaps you will understand why guessing is a useful method for forming ideas)

「猜測」則是另外一種可以幫助我們掌握這個世界的方法。思考一下我們這大千世界裡 (所存在的所有可能性，或許就會比較好瞭解為什麼 “猜測”能夠幫我們更好掌握我們周遭的現象)

Great! Why would we do that? I mean there's a lot of possibilities for

為什麼我們需要做這樣的思考呢? 我們一起來看一下這裡這個盒子好了

things that could be in this mystery box, only one of those possibilities actually is.

這個盒子可能裝著的物品有很多很多種，可是事實上只有一種物品是真正被裝在這個盒子裡的

So why don't we just look? (If we just open and look) we can verify the thing thats in there, and falsify all

為什麼不直接打開來看就好了呢? (只要我們打開來看) 我們就能夠證實放在裡面的是什麼，然後排除

the other possibilities. It's because sometimes it's useful not to wait for an observation.

其他所有的可能性了。我們不這麼做的原因，是因為選擇不要慢慢地觀察的話，效率會比較高

Hear thunder? The last time we heard thunder it rained. (We then guess:) maybe thunder always comes before

舉例說，聽到雷聲的話，我們可能會回想起上次打雷時所下的那場雨。(我們也許就會這樣猜測:)

rain and it's going to rain. We better put away any horse meat we don't want to get

可能每次打雷的時候就會下雨。如果不想要東西被淋濕的話

wet. We just saw Frank eat these mushrooms, and

最好快點把東西收一收比較好。我們剛剛才看到法蘭克吃了這些香菇

now he's bleeding out the eyes. (So we guess:) these mushrooms must cause bleeding out the eyes. Let's

他現在竟然眼睛流血。(我們可以猜測:) 一定是吃了這些香菇才會這樣的

stay away from them. We do it because seems faster and safer. Our

我們不要吃比較好。基於省時及安全考量，我們會做出這樣的猜測。我們的

字幕列表影片播放

我們怎麼能知道什麼是真正的真相呢？ (How can we know what's really true?)

stuff

time

assume

average