全球視野。斯蒂芬-切尼 (Global Perspectives: Stephen Cheney)

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>>WHAT ARE THE SECURITY THREATS
FACING THE UNITED STATES?
GENERAL STEPHEN CHENEY, CEO OF
THE AMERICAN SECURITY PROJECT,
HAS A LIST OF THE WORST ONES.
HE'LL DISCUSS THEM NEXT, ON
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES.
♪THEME MUSIC♪
>>THIS IS GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES
WITH PULITZER PRIZE WINNING
COMMENTATOR, JOHN BERSIA.
>>WELCOME TO GLOBAL
PERSPECTIVES.
IN THE AFTERMATH OF TERRORIST
ATTACKS, AMERICANS ARE NATURALLY
MORE CONCERNED ABOUT NATIONAL
SECURITY.
GENERAL STEPHEN CHENEY, CEO OF
THE AMERICAN SECURITY PROJECT,
SPENDS HIS DAYS KEEPING TRACK OF
THREATS TO THE NATION.
WELCOME TO THE SHOW, GENERAL
CHANEY.
>>WELL, DR. BERSIA I'M SO GLAD
TO BE BACK.
>>TELL US ABOUT YOUR
MOTIVATIONS.
YOU'VE BEEN INVOLVED IN THE
DEFENSE OF THE COUNTRY IN
VARIOUS WAYS; AS A MARINE NOW
WORKING WITH THE AMERICAN
SECURITY PROJECT.
WHAT KEEPS YOU GOING?
>>YOU KNOW IT'S INTERESTING.
WHEN YOU COME UP AS A JUNIOR
MARINE, JUNIOR OFFICER THROUGH
THE RANKS AT THE EARLY STAGES
YOU'RE INTERESTED IN THE
TACTICAL SITUATION.
THE MORE SENIOR YOU GET, THE
MORE EDUCATED YOU GET, MORE
INVOLVED YOU GET.
AND YOU BEGIN TO REALIZE THAT
THERE'S A MUCH BIGGER PICTURE
HERE THAT YOU'RE SOME WHAT
APART OF.
AND I THINK I GO BACK PRETTY
MUCH TO THE TIME THAT I WAS
ASSIGNED TO THE OFFICE OF
SECRETARY DEFENSE AND I GOT
NOMINATED TO BE THE DEPUTY
EXECUTIVE SECRETARY TO THEN DICK
CHENEY, NO RELATION.
AND WE SAT DOWN AND CHATTED AND
WENT OVER THE FAMILY TREE-NO
RELATION.
BUT IT WAS THERE I GOT PRETTY
GOOD EXPOSURE TO WHAT WAS GOING
ON IN THE WORLD AND ACTUALLY SAT
NEXT TO HIM FOR INSTANCE WHEN
OUR TROOPS WENT INTO SOMALIA;
WATCHED IT ON T.V., INTERPRETED
FOR HIM WHAT THE VEHICLES WERE.
AND FROM THERE I GOT NOMINATED
TO BE A FELLOW AT THE COUNCIL ON
FORMER RELATIONS.
AND THAT REALLY SPURED MY
INTEREST IN THE RELATIONSHIP
BETWEEN THE DEFENSE
ESTABLISHMENT NATIONAL SECURITY
AND THE SECURITY OF OUR
COUNTRY-AND INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS.
AND I HAVE FOLLOWED THAT THROUGH
EVER SINCE.
CULMINATING OF COURSE TODAY WITH
MY INVOLVEMENT WITH THE AMERICAN
SECURITY PROJECT.
SO THAT PART OF IT HAS STUCK
WITH ME.
I'VE BEEN VERY MUCH INVOLVED
IN.
AND I THINK MOST OF YOUR SENIOR
MILITARY FOLKS, PARTICULARLY THE
FLAG OFFICERS, UNDERSTAND THE
NATIONAL STRATEGY AND WANT TO
STAY INVOLVED.
>>TELL US ABOUT YOUR EARLY DAYS
AS A MARINE.
WHAT WERE YOUR CHALLENGES AND
WHAT WERE YOUR OPPORTUNITIES?
>>WELL YOU KNOW WHEN YOU'RE
RIGHT OUT OF-FOR MY CASE, RIGHT
OUT OF THE NAVAL ACADEMY AND YOU
GO TO WHAT THE MARINES CALLED
BASIC SCHOOL.
YOU GET ASSIGNED AN OCCUPATIONAL
SPECIALTY OR ARTILLERY IN MY
CASE.
AND THEN YOU GO OUT TO YOUR
UNIT.
MY FIRST UNIT WAS AT CAMP
PENDLETON.
IT WAS AN ARTILLERY BATTERY.
LIKE I SAID, YOU'RE FOCUSED ON
THE TACTICAL SITUATION.
BUT HERE'S AN INTERESTING
POINT, WE TRANSITIONED FROM WHAT
WAS CALLED THE 105 HOW IT
STARTED THE 155 MILLIMETER
HOWITZER.
THE 155 AT THAT TIME WAS NUCLEAR
CAPABLE.
AND THAT, WHEN I THINK BACK ON
THAT AS A YOUNG LIEUTENANT AND
CAPTAIN, TO HAVE THAT MASSIVE
AMOUNT OF POWER LITERALLY IN
YOUR HANDS.
YOU WENT TO A SCHOOL AND WERE
TAUGHT HOW TO BUILD THAT ROUND
AND THEN HOW TO PLAN TO SHOOT
IT.
AND I JUST THINK BACK ON IT.
I THINK AT THAT TIME IT WAS JUST
TACTICAL SITUATION.
IT WAS ANOTHER WEAPON IN YOUR
ARSENAL.
WHEN I THINK BACK ON IT NOW,
WHAT A TREMENDOUS CAPABILITY,
WHAT A HORRENDOUS CAPABILITY.
AND THEN I DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH
APPRECIATION FOR THAT
PERSPECTIVE ON IT, THE NATIONAL
IMPLICATIONS ON IT.
OF COURSE, THE MARINES NOW HAVE
NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
THEY DON'T HAVE ANY TACTICAL
NUKES.
THE WHOLE U.S.
ARSENAL HAS SOME LIMITED
TACTICAL NUKES BUT THEY'RE
PRETTY MUCH ALL STRATEGIC.
BUT THAT'S ANOTHER ONE THERE
THAT IN MY EARLY CAREER I SAID,
"WOW!
THIS IS REALLY SOMETHING
ELSE!"AND IT WAS PRETTY
EXCITING I WILL TELL YOU.
AND I MOVED FROM THAT FELW BACK
SEAT AN OV-10 AIR CRAFT.
BOTH AT CAMP PENDLETON AND IN
OKINAWA AND AT CAMP LEJEUNE;
REALLY ENJOYED THAT.
ENJOYED THE BACKSEAT FLYING
ASPECT OF IT.
AND THE MORE SENIOR YOU GET, THE
MORE COMMAND AND OPPORTUNITIES
YOU GET, GOT INVOLVED IN BOOT
CAMP.
COMMANDED BOTH AT SAN DIEGO AND
AT PARRIS ISLAND.
AND MY LAST JOB IN THE MARINE
CORP WAS COMMANDING GENERAL AT
PARRIS ISLAND WHICH I THINK WAS
THE BEST JOB IN THE WORLD.
WORKING WITH-WE HAD 23,000 YOUNG
MEN AND WOMEN COME THROUGH THERE
A YEAR.
SO IT'S A BIG OPERATION.
>>WHAT'S THE BEST PART?
WHEN THEY ARRIVE, WHEN THEY
GRADUATE?
OR THE WHOLE EXPERIENCE?
>>WELL, JOHN, I DON'T THINK
THEY'D SAY THE BEST PART'S
WHEN THEY ARRIVE.
AND IT'S LEGENDARY WHEN YOU
SEE THEM GET OFF THE BUS AND THE
EYES SCREAMING AT THEM.
WHICH I NEVER MUCH CARED FOR TO
BE HONEST WITH YOU.
AND THEY PUT THEM ON YELLOW FOOT
PRINTS.
BUT THEY ALL KNOW WHAT'S
COMING.
TODAY, THEY'RE ALL VOLUNTEERS.
THEY'RE ALL HIGH SCHOOL
GRADUATES.
99.9 PERCENT OF THEM.
THEY'RE ALL IN SHAPE.
WE HAVE A QUALITY, QUALITY YOUNG
MAN AND WOMEN COMING INTO ALL
THE MILITARY SERVICES TODAY.
BUT TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION, BY
FAR THE BEST PART'S
GRADUATION.
AND IF ANYBODY HAS NOT BEEN TO
GRADUATION EITHER AT SAN DIEGO
OR AT PARRIS ISLAND THEY DO 40
OR 42 A YEAR.
IT'S OPEN TO THE PUBLIC.
THEY COME INTO A FULL FLEDGE
PARADE AND A MARCH AND THERE'S
A SPEECH BY THE BATTALION
COMMANDER.
BUT THE BEST PARTS THE END WHERE
THEY DROP THE ROPES AND IN SOME
CASES, FIVE OR SIX THOUSAND
PARENTS RUN ONTO THE PARADE DECK
TO FIND THEIR YOUNG MAN OR
WOMEN.
AND THE FUNNY PART IS, YOU KNOW
ALL THEIR HEADS ARE SHAVED,
THEY'RE ALL TRIMMED.
MIGHT'VE, A LOT OF THEM HAVE
LOST A LOT OF WEIGHT.
THEY DON'T RECOGNIZE JOHNNY.
AND WHEN THEY DO THEY'RE
ASTONISHED AT THE
TRANSFORMATION.
AND IT LITERALLY IS A
TRANSFORMATION.
>>SO MOVING FROM THAT WORLD INTO
THE WORLD OF POLICY AND RESEARCH
AND SO FORTH, HOW WAS THE
TRANSITION.
WAS IT EASY?
WAS IT DIFFICULT?
>>YOU KNOW, TO CONTINUE MY SAGA
OF MY CAREER AFTER BEING A
FELLOW AT THE COUCIL AND FOREIGN
RELATIONS IN NEW YORK CITY, I
WAS REALLY EXCITED BECAUSE I WAS
GOING OUT TO CAMP PENDLETON TO
COMMAND A REGIMENTAL SIZE UNIT.
AND OVER NIGHT MY ORDERS GOT
CHANGED AND I GOT SENT TO
CAPITAL HILL TO WORK THE
CONGRESSIONAL COMMISSION,
MISSIONS OF THE ARMED SERVICES.
AND THAT OF COURSE IS ULTIMATE
POLICY.
HERE THE LAW MAKERS ARE GONNA
DECIDE THE FUTURE OF ALL THE
SERVICES.
THEY HAD A COMMITTEE, A
COMMISSION THAT WAS GOING TO SIT
THERE AND MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS
TO THE GOVERNMENT, TO THE
ADMINISTRATION THEN, AND TO
CONGRESS AND COULD VERY WELL
HAVE REORGANIZED HOW EVERYTHING
WAS GONNA TRANSPIRE.
COURSE I'M BEING A LITTLE
PAROCHIAL ABOUT THIS BUT WE WERE
DEFENDING OUR INTERESTS CLEARLY,
THE MARINE CORP WAS.
AND AT ONE TIME, THE AIR FORCE
WANTED TO GET RID OF ITS CLOSE
AIR SUPPORT MISSION AND GIVE IT
ALL, YOU READY?
TO THE MARINE CORP.
MARINE CORP HAS IT'S OWN CLOSE
AIR SUPPORT AND IS VERY PROUD OF
IT; DID NOT WANT TO ABSORB THE
AIR FORCES EITHER.
SO I MEAN, THAT LEVEL OF POLICY
WAS PRETTY INTERESTING TO ME AND
I'VE CARRIED THAT ON EVER
SINCE WITH MY RELATIONSHIP WITH
THE COUNCIL OF FORMER RELATIONS.
AND THEN I DID SOME WORK WITH
JOHN KERRY IN 2003,2004.
I ENDED UP BEING THE CHEIF
OPERATING OFFICER OF A
NON-PROFIT IN D.C.
AS A BUSINESS EXECUTIVE FOR
NATIONAL SECURITY WAS THE NAME
OF THE ORGANIZATION.
STAYED IN TOUCH WITH KERRY AND
HAGEL.
THEY FORMED THE AMERICAN
SECURITY PROJECT IN 2005 AND OF
COURSE I KNOW THE UNIVERSITY OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA IS WELL INVOLVED
AND UNDERSTANDS THAT BECAUSE YOU
WERE INVOLVED ALMOST SINCE THE
INCEPTION OF ASB.
THE FIRST UNIVERSITY PARTNER
THAT WE'VE EVER HAD AND IT'S
A GREAT RELATIONSHIP.
AND IT STAYED WITH ME AND THEN
IN 2011 I GOT CALLED AND ASKED
IF I WOULD BE THE CEO OF THE
ORGANIZATION AND THEN I
DELIGHTFULLY TOOK THAT JOB.
>>WELL LIFE HAS CHANGED A LOT IN
THE FEW YEARS SINCE YOU TOOK THE
JOB.
WHAT ARE THE MAIN SECURITY
CONCERNS FACING THE UNITED
STATES TODAY?
>>OH LORD, JOHN.
OF COURSE ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS
OPEN THE PAPER ANY DAY AND OF
COURSE NOW IN THE HEAT OF AN
ELECTION CAMPAIGN ALL THESE
SUBJECTS ARE REALLY RISING TO
THE FLOOR.
AND I THINK ORIGINALLY A LOT OF
YOUR CANDIDATES WOULD RUN ON A
DOMESTIC POLICY PLANK.
BUT NOW, WITH ALL THE TERRORISM
ASPECTS TO IT, PARTICULARLY
PARIS AND SAN BERNADINO, THAT IS
FRONT AND CENTER OF THE
HEADLINES.
AND OF COURSE YOU WOULD SAY, I
DON'T LIKE THIS TERM--BUT IF
IT BLEEDS IT LEADS.
IF IT'S ON THE FRONT PAGE AND
YOU'RE KILLING FOURTEEN PEOPLE
IN SAN BERNADINO, PEOPLE ARE
GONNA READ THAT.
AND OF COURSE NOW THEY'RE
TRYING TO ATTACH IT TO A
RELIGIOUS ASPECT TO IT, THE
MUSLIM SIDE, WHICH IS JUST
TERRIBLE.
SO THAT I WOULD SAY PERHAPS IS
TOPIC NUMBER ONE.
NOW LONG TERM, I'M NOT SURE
THAT'S THE ULTIMATE THREAT TO
THE UNITED STATES.
YOU KNOW WE HAVE BEEN INVOLVED
WITH CLIMATE CHANGE SINCE DAY
ONE.
AND PEOPLE GO, OH YEAH, CLIMATE
CHANGE.
YEAH THAT'S NOT GONNA KILL ME
TOMORROW.
NO IT WON'T KILL YOU TOMORROW.
BUT IT MIGHT KILL YOU 30 OR 40
YEARS IF WE CONTINUE TO POLLUTE
THE ATMOSPHERE THE WAY WE HAVE.
IF ANYBODY HAS BEEN TO BEJING IN
THE LAST DECADE CAN UNDERSTAND
YOU CAN'T BREATHE THERE.
I MEAN IT IS JUST HORRIBLE.
AND THE CHINESE DON'T KNOW IT.
THEY UNDERSTAND THAT.
BUT THAT'S WHERE THE LONG TERM
STRATEGIC PART OF A SECURITY
THREAT COMES IN AND YOU'VE GOT
YOUR DENIERS WHICH IS INCREDIBLY
SADING FROM MY PERSPECTIVE.
THE SCIENCE IS PROVEN THAT
CLIMATE CHANGE IS HERE AND
THEY'RE GONNA BE TREMENDOUS
THREATS TO OUR BASIS AND
STATIONS HERE, TO MANY OVERSEAS.
DIEGO GARCIA WILL PROBABLY GO
UNDERWATER.
MANY COUNTRIES, MARSHALL ISLANDS
WILL GO UNDERWATER, BANGLADESH,
PART OF THAT WILL GO UNDERWATER.
PEOPLE DON'T-CAN'T GET THEIR
HANDS AROUND THE CRISIS THAT
THIS IS GONNA CAUSE.
NOW WE KNOW WE'VE GOT REFUGEE
PROBLEMS BECAUSE OF ISIS AND AL
QAEDA AND BOKO HORAM THROUGHOUT
AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST.
AND THERE ARE A HUGE REFUGEE
CRISIS GOING ON WITH THE SYRIAN
BUSINESS, WHICH I THINK
ULTIMATELY WAS CAUSED BY ASSAD,
BUT FULED BY THE ARAB SPRING AND
IT NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.
AND THAT'S COURSE NOW MORPHED
ITSELF INTO THREATENING US HERE
AS THE LONE WOLF IN MY OPINION,
GUY FROM SAN BERNADINO.
BUT THE ONE IN PARIS WAS NOT A
LONE WOLF.
THAT WAS COORDINATED ATTACK BY
ISIS.
AND THAT WILL CAUSE US SOME
SEVERE PROBLEMS.
>>AND THERE ARE CLIMATE CHANGE
ASPECTS TO THE TERRORISM
PROBLEM?
>>OH LORD, JOHN.
YOU KNOW THIS IS ONE I CAN PULL
THE STRING ON ALMOST EVERYTHING
GOING ON.
BUT I'LL START FROM THE
BEGINNING WITH ARAB SPRING FOR
INSTANCE.
THEY HAD HUGE FORREST FIRES IN
THE SOVIET-NOT SOVIET
UNION-RUSSIA 2010.
GRAIN PRODUCTION WENT WAY DOWN.
AS A CONSEQUENCE THE PRICE WENT
WAY UP AND GRAIN, BREAD'S MADE
FROM IT.
THAT IS A STAPLE DIET IN THE
MIDDLE EAST.
ALL THE PRICES OF FOOD WENT UP
AND THAT HELPED FUEL THE
INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT EGYPT,
LYBIA, TUNISIA, AND SYRIA.
NOW IN SYRIA, IT WAS EXACERBATED
BECAUSE OF THE PHENOMENAL
DROUGHT 2007, THE WORST IN THEIR
HISTORY, 2007, 2011.
AS A CONSEQUENCE ALL THE
FARMERS, ALL THE AGRARIAN FOLKS
MOVED INTO THE CITIES, ALEPPO
AND HOMS TO BE SPECIFIC.
AND BECAME A HUGE TARGET FOR
ASSAD AND OF COURSE WHEN THE
ARAB SPRING WAVED THROUGH,
COURSE THE CITIZENS IN SYRIA
WERE NOT HAPPY WITH THE
GOVERNMENT.
THEY WEREN'T BEING TREATED
WELL.
THEY KIND OF REBELLED.
IT WASN'T AN ARMED REBELLION.
INITIALLY IT WAS A PEACEFUL
REBELLION.
WELL ASSAD MADE IT UN-PEACEFUL
AND ATTACKED THEM.
AND HIS MAIN TARGET OF COURSE
WAS ALLEPO.
AND HERE YOU HAD SEVERAL MILLION
PEOPLE THERE AND HE BARREL
BOMBED THEM TO DEATH AND,
LITERALLY.
AND NOW OF COURSE YOU HAVE A
PHENOMENAL REFUGEE CRISIS.
SO THAT'S THE TIE IN THAT CASE
BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE.
NOW I'M NOT SAYING CLIMATE
CHANGE NECESSARILY CAUSED ALL
THAT DROUGHT, BUT IT WAS A HUGE
ACCELERANT TO THE INSTABILITY.
IT WAS A THREAT MULTIPLIER.
>>SO WHY DON'T YOU SPOIL OUR
DAY AND GIVE US THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO FOR CLIMATE CHANGE-IF
WE DON'T GET OUR HANDS AROUND
THE PROBLEM.
>>YEAH I MEAN WE HAVE TALKED
ABOUT THIS AND IT'S AN
INTERESTING QUESTION BECAUSE I
HADN'T BEEN POSED THAT
SPECIFIC PART OF IT BEFORE.
BUT I WILL GIVE YOU A WORST CASE
SCENARIO.
ARTIC CAP MELTS.
LET'S SAY IN 15 TO 20 YEARS.
YOU HAVE A HUGE SEA LEVEL RISE.
I'M NOT TALKING SIX INCHES OR
A FOOT.
I'M TALKING THREE, FOUR, MAYBE
FIVE FEET.
AS A CONSEQUENCE, ALL YOUR EAST
COAST CITIES HAVE HUGE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.
MIAMI, NEW YORK, BOSTON,
BALTIMORE, NORFOLK.
OUR BASES AND STATIONS AROUND
THE WORLD THAT ARE 1, 2, 3 FEET
ABOVE SEA LEVEL ALL GO
UNDERWATER.
THEY'VE ALL GOT TO MOVE.
SO YOU'VE GOT TO RELOCATE ALL
YOUR BASES AND STATIONS.
AND THAT'S THE IMMEDIATE
IMPACT-I CALL THAT TACTICALLY
HERE IN THE UNITED STATES.
STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS,
BANGLADESH ENDS UP INITIALLY
WITH A FIVE MILLION DOLLAR-FIVE
MILLION PERSON REFUGEE PROBLEM.
BUT IT EXPANDS TO 15 TO 30
MILLION PEOPLE HAVE TO GO
SOMEWHERE AND THERE'S NOT THE
ROOM, THERE'S NOT THE SPACE IN
BANGLADESH.
CAN'T GO TO INDIA BECAUSE
IT'S AN ARMED BORDER.
CAN'T GOT O MYANMAR.
WHERE DO THEY GO?
YOU TALK ABOUT A REFUGEE PROBLEM
OF ALMOST UNIMAGINABLE
PROPORTION HERE.
AND OF COURSE WE LOOK AT WHAT
WE'VE GOT WITH ONE OR TWO
MILLION OR THREE MILLION.
NOT THAT THAT'S INSIGNIFICANT
OUT OF SYRIA, BUT THIS WOULD BE
A PROBLEM THAT'S EVEN
CONSIDERABLY WORSE.
AND IT FLOODS ITSELF THROUGHOUT
SOUTHEAST ASIA.
SO YOU HAVE UPRISINGS THERE.
YOU'VE GOT ARMED CONFLICT
GOING ON THERE.
WE'RE ASKED TO RESPOND.
IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS, MUCH LIKE
TYPHOON HAIYAN IN THE
PHILIPPINES.
INSTEAD OF HAVING 200 OR 250
MILE AN HOUR TYPHOON, YOU GET
300.
JUST BLOW AWAY TOTAL COUNTRIES
OR TOTAL CITIES.
AND THE PRINCIPLE RESPONDER, IS
US.
AND HERE'S ANOTHER FLIP TO
THAT ISSUE.
IT HAPPENS TO COME AT A TIME
WHEN THE CHINESE ARE BUILDING,
BUILDING ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AND THE PHILIPPINES
FEEL VERY THREATENED BY THIS, AS
THEY SHOULD.
AND OF COURSE THE CHINESE ARE
TRYING TO ASSERT TERRITORIAL
ACCLAIM TO THOSE WATERS THROUGH
THE LAW OF THE SEA CONVENTION,
WHICH BY THE WAY WE DO NOT SIGN
UP TO.
SO ALL THIS STARTS TO GEL ITSELF
INTO HUGE CONFLICT THROUGHOUT
THE WORLD AND FOOD SHORTAGES
BEYOND COMPARE.
NOW THAT'S ARMAGEDDON,
THAT'S THE WORSE CASE.
I DON'T THINK IT'S GONNA
HAPPEN.
>>SO WHAT DO WE NEED TO DO TO
PREVENT THAT SCENARIO?
>>YEAH I MEAN WE GET THAT
QUESTION AT AMERICAN SECURITY
PROJECT.
AND ONE OF THE POINTS TO HAVING
A NUMBER OF SENIOR FLAG OFFICERS
ON OUR BOARD, AND DON'T
MISUNDERSTAND ME, WE'VE GOT A
NUMBER OF VERY DISTINGUISHED
AMERICAN POLITICIANS AND
BUSINESSMEN AND WOMEN ON THE
BOARD.
LOCKHEED MARTIN, NORM AUGUSTINE,
FORMER CEO IS ON THE BOARD,
CHRISTINE TODD WHITMAN, FORMER
GOVERNOR OF NEW JERSEY, AND ALSO
FORMER ADMINISTRATOR OF THE EPA
IS OUR CHAIR WOMAN RIGHT NOW.
SO WE'VE GOT A NICE MIX.
BUT THE MILITARY GUYS, THEY ARE
THERE TO SAY HEY, THE ULTIMATE
SOLUTION IS NOT THE MILITARY.
YOU KNOW AS WE TALK ABOUT SYRIA
AND YOU LISTEN TO THE
CANDIDATES, I'M GONNA SEND 25
THOUSAND TROOPS.
I'M GONNA HAVE A SAFE ZONE.
IT'S NOT THE ANSWER THERE.
THE ANSWER THERE IS FIX THE
POLITICAL SITUATION.
NOW, FOR CLIMATE CHANGE, LONG
TERM, THE ANSWER TO IT IS YOU
GOT TO GET RID OF CO-2
POLLUTION.
I MEAN THAT SOUNDS SIMPLISTIC,
BUT IT'S TRUE.
I MEAN IT REALLY IS TRUE.
AND COP-21 THE CONFERENCE OF
PARTIES 21 IN PARIS WILL HAVE
SOME REALLY GOOD RESULTS FROM
IT.
WHO KNOWS WHETHER WE'LL ACCEPT
THOSE.
WE DIDN'T FROM KYOTO AS YOU
MIGHT KNOW.
BUT, AND WE ARE AN ALL ABOVE
ORGANIZATION AT ASP.
WHETHER IT'S CAP AND TRADE,
TAX, A CARBON TAX WHETHER
THEY'RE INCENTIVES FOR
RENEWABLES.
WHETHER THEY'RE ALTERNATIVE
ENERGIES, NOT JUST SOLAR, NOT
JUST WIND.
INVESTMENT IN INNOVATION, FUSION
ENERGY FOR INSTANCE IS ONE
OPTION.
WORKING WITH NUCLEAR ENERGY
INDUSTRY AND HAVING THEM TAILOR
THEIR REACTORS, MAKING THEM
CHEAPER, MAKE THEM MORE
EFFICIENT, MAKING THEM BETTER,
THOSE ARE ALL OPTIONS THAT WE
SUPPORT TO GET RID OF CO-2
POLLUTION.
>>SO OTHER THAN CLIMATE CHANGE,
OTHER THAN POLITICAL VIOLENCE
WHAT ARE SOME OF THE SECURITY
PROBLEMS, CHALLENGES FOR THE
UNITED STATE?
>>OH BOY.
PUBLIC DIPLOMACY IS A HUGE ONE.
WE FEEL AT ASP THAT OUR COUNTRY
DOESN'T DO THAT PARTICULARLY
WELL.
HAVEN'T PUT ENOUGH EMPHASIS ON
IT.
CYBER SECURITY IS OBVIOUSLY THAT
IS ANOTHER WIN WIN.
MY OWN PERSONAL DATA GOT HACKED
WITH THE OPM BREACH.
AND I KNOW DOZENS, DOZENS WHO
GOT HACKED.
WE'VE GOT TO STOP AND PREVENT
THAT.
AND WE'VE GOT SMART ENOUGH
PEOPLE.
NOT NECESSARILY IN THE
GOVERNMENT THERE ARE SMART
PEOPLE THERE TOO, BUT THE
INDUSTRY FOLKS, THEY'RE ALL
THERE.
WE NEED TO TAP INTO THAT
INTELLIGENCE THAT'S THERE,
THOSE FOLKS AND INNOVATION THAT
CAN FIX THE CYBER SECURITY
PROBLEM.
BECAUSE WE'RE ALL SO DEPENDENT
ON ALL THAT DATA THAT CAN BE
HACKED, AND HAS BEEN HACKED.
SO CYBER IS PROBABLY ONE OF THE
BIGGEST.
>>SO WE DO WE DO ABOUT THAT KIND
OF CHALLENGE?
WE'RE SO DEPENDENT ON
TECHNOLOGY.
>>SURE.
>>AND IT SEEMS TO BE OUR
STRENGTH AND OUR WEAKNESS.
>>WELL IT IS.
AND YOU KNOW WE'RE THE ONES
THAT DISCOVERED IT, PUT IT ALL
TOGETHER AND NOW OF COURSE
IT'S EXPLODED WORLD WIDE AND
THERE ARE BRILLIANT MINDS ALL
OVER THE WORLD THAT ARE WORKING
PRO AND CON ON THE CYBER
QUESTION.
AS THEY HAVE HERE, I THINK YOU
JUST HAVE TO PUT THE RESOURCES
AGAINST IT AND UNDERSTAND IT.
NOW THAT GETS INTO THE POLICY
AND LEGAL SIDE OF THE HOUSE TOO,
I.E.
NSA MONITORING YOUR PHONES,
COLLECTION OF DATA, HOW MUCH
DOES GOVERNMENT TAKE, PRIVACY
ACT.
AND THERE'S A BALANCE TO THIS.
I MEAN IT IS.
AND IT'S A TOUGH ONE, IT'S A
TOUGH ONE TO ANSWER.
I KNOW A LOT OF AMERICANS
DON'T CARE TO HAVE THEIR PHONE
CONVERSATIONS RECORDED.
I UNDERSTAND THAT, BUT IF IT
MEANS THE SECURITY OF YOUR LIFE
OR YOUR FINANCES, I THINK YOU
WOULDN'T MIND SOMEBODY AT
LEAST KEEPING TRACK OF IT IN
TERMS OF WHO'S HACKING YOU AND
HOW IT'S GETTING HACKED AND
WHAT KIND OF SCREENS YOU CAN PUT
UP OR PREVENTIVE DEVICES TO STOP
THE HACKING FROM OCCURRING.
AND THE OTHER SIDE OF IT TOO IS
WORKING THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY.
I MEAN THIS IS A HAND AND GLOVE
OPERATION.
THE FINANCIAL COMMUNITY IS
TOTALLY DEPENDENT ON ELECTRONICS
AND CYBER.
I MEAN IT'S A WORLD-YOU CAN
MAKE A TRADE IF YOU'RE IN HONG
KONG, YOU DO A TRADE RIGHT NOW
ON WALL STREET IN LITERALLY IN
MILLISECONDS.
IT'S THAT KIND OF THING
THAT'S DANGEROUS.
IT'S GREAT.
BUT IT'S DANGEROUS, OUGHT TO
BE REGULATED.
WE HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
>>AS YOU DEAL WITH THESE GLOBAL
CHALLENGES, WHAT IS THE RELATIVE
ROLE OF THE UNITED STATES?
YOU HAVE SOME ANALYSTS SAYING
THE UNITED STATES IS A DECLINING
SUPER POWER.
YOU HAVE SOME PUNDITS WHO GO TO
THE EXTREME AND SAY THE UNITED
STATES WILL NO LONGER BE
RELEVANT A DECADE OR TWO FROM
NOW.
BUT IN MY OPINION AND IN MY
EXPERIENCE THE UNITED STATES
SEEMS TO SORT OF REVIEW AND
RENEW ITSELF PERIODICALLY AND
USUALLY COMES BACK BETTER THAN
BEFORE.
AT LEAST IN TERMS OF DEALING
WITH CHALLENGES.
SO WHERE ARE, ARE WE A DECLINING
SUPER POWER?
ARE WE DECLINING AND ALSO
CLIMBING RELATIVE TO OTHER
COUNTRIES AS THEY CLIMB AND
DECLINE?
>>SURE.
YOU KNOW JOHN, AND TAKE OFFENSE
IS NOT THE RIGHT WORD.
I ABHOR THE RELATIVE TERM SUPER
POWER OR DECLINING OR BEING THE
GREATEST.
IT KIND OF GIVES YOU THE OPINION
THAT WE'RE SUPERIOR, WE'RE
BETTER THAN YOU.
AND THAT'S NOT THE CASE.
WE WANT TO LIVE OUR LIVES THE
WAY WE CAN LIVE OUR LIVES AND WE
WANT TO DO IT IN A PEACEFUL WAY
AT THE PURSUIT OF LIFE, LIBERTY,
AND HAPPINESS.
AND WE DO A GOOD JOB OF THAT.
THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS, OUR
FORMER GOVERNMENT WORKS IN IT.
IT WORKS WELL.
IT'S PROVEN THAT OUR
INDUSTRIES SUCCEEDS BECAUSE OF
IT AND THERE ARE SOME PROBLEMS
WITH OUR TAX STRUCTURE WHICH I
WON'T GET INTO THAT UNLESS YOU
ASK ME.
BUT MY POINT TO IT IS, IT'S
NOT A CASE OF, AND I'LL TAKE
NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS AN EXAMPLE.
OH WE'VE GOT MORE NUCLEAR
WEAPONS THAN YOU AND WE'RE
MORE POWERFUL.
WE DON'T-PERSONALLY I THINK WE
REALLY DON'T WANT NUCLEAR
WEAPONS.
WE DO NEED THEM TO A POINT, TO
BALANCE AS A COUNTER FORCE TO
THOSE WHO HAVE THEM.
BUT I HATE TO GET INTO THE
NUMBER COUNTING BUSINESS.
OKAY, WE GOTTA HAVE 1,551
BECAUSE YOU HAVE 1,550.
AND I DON'T LIKE THOSE
MEASUREMENTS.
I THINK TO GET TO THE BOTTOM
LINE OF YOUR QUESTION HERE, WE
WILL ALWAYS BE AT THE FOREFRONT
OF SCIENCE AND INNOVATION AND
TECHNOLOGY, BECAUSE OF OUR
UNIVERSITY SYSTEM LIKE THE
UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WE'VE GOT INNOVATION, WE
STUDY, WE OPEN SOCIETY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THOSE
LIMITS.
WHEREAS THAT CAPABILITY
DOESN'T EXIST ANYWHERE ELSE
LIKE IT DOES HERE.
AND UNTIL SOMEBODY COMES UP WITH
A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO OURS OR
MAYBE BETTER?
I DON'T KNOW WHAT THAT WOULD
BE.
THEY'RE NOT GONNA BE AS GOOD
AS US.
ON THE MILITARY SIDE OF HOUSE
HANDS DOWN I'M 30 PLUS YEARS
IN THE MARINES, WE'VE GOT A
FANTASTIC MILITARY
ESTABLISHMENT.
IT'S UNMATCHED IN MY PERSONAL
OPINION.
AND I'VE SEEN ALMOST ALL THE
OTHER ONES IN THE WORLD.
THEY JUST CAN'T DO IT THE
WAY-WE PUT A HUGE INVESTMENT,
AND I WOULD KNOW, INTO THE
TRAINING ASPECT OF OUR TROOPS.
TO TRAIN AN NCO, NCO IS A
CORPORAL OR A SERGEANT OR ABOVE,
REALLY TAKES THREE OR FOUR
YEARS.
MAYBE FIVE, YEARS, YEARS.
AND YOU'VE GOT TO HAVE TOTAL
CONTROL OF THAT INDIVIDUAL 24/7.
AND OF COURSE THEY'RE
APPOINTING TO OUR FAILURE OF TO
TRAIN TROOPS IN IRAQ WHICH
WE'VE HAD WHAT A YEAR?
OR MAYBE A YEAR AND A HALF OR
TWO.
AND THEN YOU HAVE TO HAVE A
VOLUNTEER TO CONTROL OF HIM,
HE'S GOTTA BE OUTFITTED.
IT'S NOT AN EASY THING TO DO.
NOBODY'S GONNA COME CLOSE TO
US JOHN.
>>WHAT ABOUT THE RISING POWER?
YOU'VE MENTIONED CHINA SEVERAL
TIMES.
WE'VE SEEN RUSSIA RESURGE OF
LATE PROJECTING FORCE INTO
SYRIA.
ARE THOSE REAL THREATS OR IS IT
JUST A GIVE AND TAKE OF THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM?
>>THEY'RE ALWAYS THREATS OF
SOME SORT ANOTHER.
THEY'RE ALL GONNA PROTECT
THEIR NATIONAL INTEREST.
PARTICULARLY IN THE CASE OF
CHINA WITH THE BUILDING OF THE
SPRATLEY AND WANTING TO TAKE
OVER THE TERRITORY OF WATERS.
I MEAN THAT IS, THAT'S A
CHALLENGE.
AND I DID NOT LIKE THE WORD
PIVOT TO ASIA.
YOU KNOW I JUST-BECAUSE IT
INSINUATES THAT WE'RE TAKING
FROM SOMEWHERE ELSE AND WE'RE
PUTTING IT THERE.
SO THOSE IN THE MIDDLE EAST, OR
THOSE IN EUROPE, OR THOSE IN
SOUTH AMERICA GO, HEY!
WHAT ABOUT US?
HOWEVER THAT SAID, CHINA IS VERY
IMPORTANT AND OF COURSE ONE OF
THE BIGGEST THREATS THERE IS
NORTH KOREA.
IT'S NOT CHINA BUT MILITARILY
WE COULD TAKE THEM OUT IN A
NANOSECOND.
BUT IF THEY LAUNCHED A NUKE AT
SOMEBODY IT WOULD BE HELL TO
PAY.
RUSSIA, RUSSIA'S HUGE PROBLEM.
THEY'RE REARMING PART OF THE
ARTIC.
THAT TO ME IS AN ALARM BELL.
WE REALLY HAVE TO KEEP-WE WORK
WITH THEM AND KEEP AN EYE ON
THEM.
BUT I'M ULTIMATELY, I'M NOT
SURE WHAT HIS AIM IS OTHER THAN
HE WANTS TO BE THE PLAYER ON THE
INDIA NATIONAL SCENE AND WANTS
TO CHALLENGE.
AND I THINK WE OUGHT TO
RECOGNIZE THEM.
SURE, YOU'RE A MAJOR COUNTRY.
YOU'RE PART OF THE SECURITY
COUNCIL.
YOU ARE.
WHAT MORE DO YOU WANT?
WELL, MAYBE HE WANTS THE WORSE,
APAC BACK.
ALL THOSE COUNTRIES.
SO, I THINK INDEED AND IT'S
WHEN YOU BRING IN THE NUCLEAR
SIDE OF THIS AND THEY HAVE
NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND THEY'VE
KIND OF RATTLED THAT A LITTLE
BIT LATELY, THAT IS REALLY
PROBLEMATIC.
I MEAN IT'S-NOT THAT WE
DON'T HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO
COUNTER THAT, WE DO, CLEARLY.
BUT YOU CERTAINLY DON'T WANT
TO INTRODUCE THAT INTO ANY KIND
OF A CONFLICT AND I THINK YOU
ALWAYS GOTTA HAVE THAT IN THE
BACK OF YOUR MINDS.
ULTIMATELY SOME WOULD SAY
NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE THE ULTIMATE
THREAT EVEN MORE THAN CLIMATE
CHANGE.
AND I THINK PERHAPS THEY ARE IF
SOMEBODY GOT A HOLD OF THEM OR
THEY EXPORTED THE TECHNOLOGY TO
A TERRORIST ORGANIZATION.
THEN IT WOULD REALLY BE BAD
NEWS.
>>WITH THE RATTLING OF SUCH
WEAPONS IMPLIES YOU'RE WILLING
TO USE THEM.
AND THAT'S WHAT DISTURBS ME.
>>IT DISTURBS ME TOO.
AND I'M ON A NUMBER OF STUDY
GROUPS AND BOARDS, ONE BIG BOARD
AT THE STATE DEPARTMENT THAT
WORKS FOR THE UNDER SECRETARY
FOR NON PROLIFERATION AND WE
DISCUSS THIS ISSUE A LOT.
AND YOU WAX AND WANE ON IT LIKE
I MENTIONED EARLIER UNDER NEW
START OUT OF 2011, WE GO DOWN TO
1,550 WEAPONS AND WE'RE
GETTING THERE PRETTY FAST.
THAT'S SUCH AN IMMENSE AMOUNT
OF NUCLEAR CAPABILITY.
I MEAN HOW MANY DO YOU NEED TO
COUNTER WHOEVER HAS WHATEVER?
I MEAN YOU REALLY DON'T EVEN
WANNA USE ONE.
I MEAN IT'S ALMOST
INCONCEIVABLE TO ME THAT WE
WOULD EVER EVEN USE ONE BE
HONEST WITH YOU.
I UNDERSTAND IT, BUT I JUST
DON'T SEE US EVER DOING IT.
NOW PUTIN, I JUST DON'T KNOW.
AND THERE WAS A TIME IN THE
MID-90, LATE-90'S EARLY 2000S
WHERE THE RUSSIAN TRADITIONAL
FORCES HAD LOST THEIR POTENCY.
THEY HAD REALLY DETERIORATED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND ONE OF THE
THOUGHTS WAS THAT THEY WOULD USE
THEIR NUCLEAR ARSENAL BECAUSE
THEIR TRADITIONAL FORCES,
CONVENTIONAL FORCES WERE WEAK
AND THEY WOULD BACK IT UP WITH
NUCLEAR WEAPON.
NOW THAT IS BIG TROUBLE.
BUT NOW PUTIN HAS BUILT UP THE
CONFESSIONAL AND HE'S WORKING
HARD TO BUILD UP HIS
CONFESSIONAL FORCES BACK TO
WHERE THEY WERE EARLY 80S, LATE
70S.
IS THAT A GOOD THING?
I'M NOT SURE BUT WE'D RATHER
NOT HAVE HIM USING NUCLEAR
WEAPONS.
>>GREAT.
WELL THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR
JOINING US TODAY GENERAL CHENEY.
>>JOHM IT'S BEEN MY PLEASURE
AND THANK YOU AND THE UNIVERSITY
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA.
>>AND THANK YOU.
FOR GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES, I'M
JOHN BERSIA AND WE'LL SEE YOU
NEXT TIME.