will on Friday unveil a big package of physical and monetary stimulus.

會在禮拜五公布一個實體跟貨幣方面的刺激政策方案

One bank that has been consistently predicting the BOJ would actually not do anything this week is MUFG.

一間長期預測日本央行這個禮拜不會有所作為的銀行是 MUFG（三菱日聯金融集團）

And with us from MUFG is Derek Halpenny, its European Head of global market's research.

我們請到了 MUFG 的歐洲區全球市場調查總負責人，Derek Halpenny

Derek, the problem for the BOJ is whether they've got the tools to do the kind of thing they need to do.

Derek，日本央行的問題在於他們是否擁有工具來做他們應該要做的事情

Where are they on that?

他們現在的狀況如何？

Well I think the timing is hugely important now, as you can see, in terms of the scale of quantitative easing and the buying of JJBs,

我認為現在看來時間點是非常重要的，我們看看他們貨幣寬鬆政策的規模還有 JJB 的併購

it's been huge, and therefore, they need to be very very careful in terms of

這些都是很重大的事件，因此他們必須要在宣布新的刺激方案以及延長這個政策方面

the timing of when they announce and the extension of that.

非常非常的小心

So our view is that they're going to remain very very cautious,

所以我們認為他們會繼續保持非常的謹慎

perhaps what they want to see is more steps taken on the Abenomic side of policy in Japan.

或許他們希望看到的是日本安倍經濟方面的政策能有更多的動作

And therefore, they may wait until we have further details of physical stimulus,

也因此他們可能會等到有實體刺激政策的細節 [才會宣佈新的刺激方案]

and hopefully, some other reform measures in regard to the third arrow of Abenomics and then perhaps later in the year,

希望其他針對安倍經濟的第三支箭的改革方案以及可能今年年底 -

maybe at the October meeting, that would be a more opportune time to extend quantitative easing.

或許在十月的會議當中 - 那會是個比較合適的延長貨幣寬鬆政策的時機

Dollar-yen, it's been strengthening recently, and now it's again, today, weakening.

日圓最近在升值，然後又開始貶值

What's been driving it?

是什麼原因造成它這樣的走向？

Let's have a look at our next chart which illustrates this.

我們來看看下一張圖表

Well, certainly, now if you look at the nominal interest rate spreads that's the very quick way in which dollar-yen tends to respond.

名義利差上面的波動對日圓來說是常見的

So the US data has been strengthening, and perhaps tomorrow when we get the FED statements,

所以美國方面的資料顯示日圓一直在走強，或許明天我們拿到美國聯準會的資料後

there will be an upgrade on the economy after the labor market has picked up.

他們在日本勞動市場情況好轉之後會對日本經濟有更進一步的看法

2-year yields have pretty much in the United States reversed the Brexit drop.

美國的 2 年期國債收益率已經差不多補上了英國脫歐之後的缺口

Right.

是的

And that helps lift dollar-yen.

那是使得日圓走強的原因

So that's one element. The next element, which our third chart shows, it's actually more from the Japan side, isn't it?

所以那是其中一個因素。另外一個因素，像我們這個第三張圖表顯示的，是比較偏向日本自己那方面的，是吧？

Yeah, we're wary of putting too much emphasis on the nominal interest rate differential,

對的，我們對於太過重視名義利差這件事是蠻小心的

and really, as you can see, during Abenomics, it wasn't really nominal yield spreads that drove dollar-yen higher.

而在安倍經濟的時期，使得日圓升值的原因並不是名義利差

It was real interest rate spreads, because Abenomics lifted inflation expectations in Japan.

而是實質利差，因為安倍經濟提高了日本通膨的期待

The problem since the beginning of this year is that Abenomics has been unravelling, inflation expectations have plunged,

從今年年初開始的問題是安倍經濟已經開始失效，通膨期待直線下降

and actually, on a five-year five-year inflation swap basis, turned negative earlier this month.

而事實上，若從五年五年的通膨頻率來看，這個月初大家已經對通膨不怎麼期待了

So real yields have been rising in Japan,

所以日本的年度收益率最近在上升

and therefore, that has helped to lift the Japanese yen.

因此這也幫助了日圓的升值

And that stronger Japanese yen, as our final chart shows, is actually creating a big current account surplus, isn't it?

而像我們最後一張圖表顯示的，強勢的日圓創造了很大的經常賬戶盈餘，是吧？

Yeah, indeed, like in terms of what... obviously if you have a surplus of this size,

是的沒錯，如果你有這麼多的經常帳戶盈餘

the exporting of capital on the financial account,

is even more important to try and weaken your currency.

And if you have rising real yields domestically, that's creating problems for encouraging both households and corporates

而如果你國內有上升中的實質收益率，這對鼓勵家戶以及公司投資者做境外投資

to invest abroad.

是會有負面影響的

Or, what's been happening is the investment income on assets abroad, more of that money is being converted

另外一個看法是境外資產的投資收益有更大的部分

back into Japanese yen, and that's helping to lift the yen.

被轉回日圓，這也是幫助日圓走強的另一個原因

And just finally, Derek, I mean you say there might be an action by the BOJ, say, in October,

最後，Derek，你剛才提到日本央行可能在十月會有動作

so where will the yen be by end of year?

日圓在年底的狀況會如何呢？

Well we still feel that perhaps even by then the action might not be aggressive enough,

我們仍然認為日本央行在年底的動作可能會不夠強勢

and we're looking at the influences that I've just pointed out, as keeping the yen on a stronger footing

我們現在只專注在剛剛提到的那些影響，像是讓日圓在今年剩下的時間

through the remainder of this year,

能夠保持強勢

so we could be at levels around a hundred or even below by the time we get to the end of the year.

所以我們年底的時候

Derek Halpenny, thanks very much.

Derek Halpenny，非常謝謝你