The famed speculator George Soros this week warned that a vote to leave would cause the pound to fall to parity against the European single currency

這星期，著名投機者George Soros警告大眾英鎊將跌至與歐元等值

and the UK would end up ironically "joining" the euro after all.

英國到最後會很諷刺地「加入」了歐元區

By the same logic, a vote to remain in the EU will shore up the value of Sterling and may even prompt a relief rally for the British currency.

同樣的，若公投結果是留歐，英鎊將升值且甚至有可能展開一波安慰性反彈

There is however, an alternative view that is actually largely been ignored by markets during the sound and the fury of the campaign.

然而，另一種看法在脫歐運動的熱鬧之中被市場大為忽略

It says that the Brexit result will not be the main driver of Sterling prices

這看法為脫歐公投的結果不會是影響英鎊的主要因素

because a pound is poised to take a significant tumble against the dollar and the euro regardless of the outcome of the vote.

因為無論公投結果為何，英鎊已準備兌歐元及美元大貶

The United Kingdom finds itself in the unenviable position of being the only G4 currency with a larger current account deficit now than in the years preceding the Financial Crisis.

英國處在一個不值得羨慕的窘境。英鎊是唯一一個在金融危機之後，面臨財政赤字成長的G4貨幣

Russell Clark of Horseman Capital notes that while the relative valuations of currencies are driven by differences in current and expected interest rates,

英國騎士資本管理公司的Russell Clark點出：雖然貨幣的相對估值受到現行利率及預期利率之差的影響

these rates should ultimately be driven by fundamentals such as current accounts and fiscal deficits.

這些利率最後還是受到經常帳及財政赤字等影響

On both these measures, the UK has sharply underperformed its G4 rivals over recent years,

近幾年，英國在這兩方面皆落後其他G4成員許多

yet the value of the pound has yet to adjust.

英鎊卻未有任何調整

Compared with the eurozone, United States, and Japan, the UK has prepared by far the largest current account deficit as percentage of Gross Domestic Product since the middle of 2012.

相較於歐元區，英國、日本及英國自2012年中以來，擁有有史以來最大經常帳赤字佔GDP的百分比

At the same time, the UK's fiscal deficit has significantly worsened relative to eurozone and the US.

同時，相較於歐元區和美國，英國的財政赤字大幅成長

Mr. Clark believes that a sharp improvement of the euro zone's fiscal and current account positions versus the UK

Clark認為歐盟區的財政及經常帳狀況的大幅進步

means that the pound is likely to suffer an even sharper devaluation against the single currency than in the 2008 crisis.

代表英鎊很有可能相較於2008年的金融危機，面臨更大兌歐元的貶值

Sterling versus the euro peaked at 1.50 euro in 2007, and then lost 30% of its value down to its 2009 trough.

英鎊兌歐元匯率在2007年最高，為1英鎊兌1.5歐元，隨後直至2009年的最低點，英鎊貶值了30%

So far, since reaching its most recent peak of 1.41 euro, the pound is only down by a modest 8%.

目前，自從達到其目前的最高點1英鎊兌1.41歐元之後，英鎊只貶值了8%

Based on these facts, parity against the single currency looks an entirely plausible outcome for the pound over the next two years.

根據上述這些理由，在未來兩年，英鎊與歐元等值是很有可能的