The polls suggest that the race is tightening, and there's a few jitters in the Remain camp, not least in Downing Street.

民調顯示正反兩方勢均力敵，這令支持留歐陣營，包含首相卡麥隆在內，十分緊張

Here with me is Philip Stephens, Chief Political Commentator of the Financial Times.

和我一起的是金融時報的首席政治評論員──菲利普•斯蒂芬斯

Philip, how do you see it? Is it that tight?

菲利普，你覺得呢？真的那麼勢均力敵嗎？

Well, all polls have to come with a very big health warning,

我覺得所有的民調都應該附上一個大大的警告標示

we saw last year with the General Election here how they can all get it wrong.

以去年的大選為例，我們可以知道民意調查其實有可能錯得很離譜

That said, if you talked to people in the Prime Minister's Remain camp, "Let's stay in Europe" camp,

話雖如此，如果你兩週前問首相及留歐陣營他們對公投的看法

two weeks ago, cheery "we're gonna do it", if not close there, comfortable.

他們一定興高采烈地告訴你：「我們做得到」，他們似乎勝券在握

Last night, talking to a bunch of the people at the heart of the campaign, we're nervous, really nervous.

昨晚，我和留歐陣營的核心人物討論目前的情況，他們表示：「我們很緊張、非常的緊張。」

Not quite panicked, but very, very nervous.

雖然還不到驚慌失措的地步，但他們的確非常緊張

So what may have gone wrong?

所以到底出了什麼事？

Well, wherever the polls were two weeks ago, the feeling is they have shifted to the Leave campaign over the past ten days.

感覺好像過去十天裡，民意從兩周前的狀況漸漸的轉為傾向脫歐

The view is that immigration, which the Leave campaign has pretty ruthlessly exploited with some mendacious claims

脫歐陣營大量運用一些相當誇張的說法作為理由，像是移民問題

about the numbers of Turkish immigrants that might come to Britain in the next several years,

例如宣稱土耳其移民會在未來幾年大量湧入英國

the feeling is that that has caught the, if you like the emotions of those groups, the people that Trump is appealing to in the U.S.,

感覺上，這種說詞吸引了特定的支持者，就好像川普在美國吸引了特定的族群一樣

who feel that they've been left on the sidelines by globalization.

這些支持者覺得自己受到全球化的威脅

And drowned out the message that the Remain camp felt really would resonate, which is the economic costs of withdrawal.

而這樣的說法淹沒了留歐陣營的主張，也就是脫歐會帶來龐大的經濟成本

Yes, and I think it still is a battle between economics and if you like, emotion, identity, and these other aspects of policy the Remain campaign is gonna have to sit on.

沒錯，我認為這是一場經濟和國族情感、身分認同等議題之間的拉鋸戰，留歐陣營依然需要要好好考慮這些問題

Look, you may feel bad, you may not like Brussels, you may not like the immigration,

你可能覺得很糟，很討厭歐盟，很討厭移民

but do you really want to jeopardize the country's prosperity and your own incomes.

但是他們值得你犧牲國家的經濟和自己的收入嗎？

And the Leave campaign is gonna push harder and harder I think, on the immigration question

我覺得脫歐陣營接下來會更用力的攻擊移民這個部分

and say look, you're going to be swamped by immigrants if this goes on.

然後說：「你看，如果這樣下去的話我們以後會被移民給淹沒。」

Of course what's extraordinary is that David Cameron, the Conservative Prime Minister,

這當中讓人覺得非常不可思議的是首相大衛．卡麥隆，保守黨的主席

is sharing the platform with key Labour figures, not least Sadiq Khan, recently elected, the first Muslim mayor of London.

和工黨幾位核心的政治人物站在同一個陣線，其中包含了倫敦的新市長薩迪克·汗

Yeah I think there are two big political trends at work here.

我覺得這是兩個政治走向所造就的

The first is the sort of fragmentation of politics, which we've seen over the past several years,

首先，過去幾年，英國的政壇有分裂的趨勢

the two big parties no longer have the iron grip on politics that they used to have.

兩大黨不再像過去一樣對政治有強而專一的影響力

And the second is really a battle between Roundheads and Cavaliers.

再者，這又是一場圓顱（激進）和騎士（保守）的戰爭

Who's the Roundheads?

這個情況裡誰是圓顱？

The Roundheads are the Leave campaign in the sense in the Tory Party, the people who want to overturn.

脫歐陣營，他們其中包含了一些保守黨員，他們想要推翻黨內當權的菁英

They're attacking the elites, the sort of public school educated people around David Cameron.

他們攻擊卡麥隆和他身邊那群公學（所謂的「貴族學校」）出身的人

And of course you see the same in the Labour Party, where Jeremy Corbyn, the leader who mounted effectively a sort of coup led by the activists last year,

而在工黨裡也是這樣的狀況，傑瑞米·柯賓去年和支持者發起了「政變」

They're trying to do the (same), they're pushing back against the Labour establishment.

他們開始挑戰和推翻一些現有的工黨理念

So what you're seeing is the two establishments, the old Labour establishment and the Tory establishment, pulling together in favor of Remain,

所以現在的情況是，工黨裡支持舊有理念的政治人物和保守黨的當權者支持留歐

while the, if you like the Roundheads in both parties who've joined together in favor of Leave.

而剩下的人則是這個情況裡的「圓顱」，他們支持脫歐

Philip, I'm not going to ask you, even with all your experience, what do you think is gonna happen next week in the referendum,

菲利普，雖然你經驗豐富，但是我想應該也不能要求你預測下星期會發生什麼事

but I will ask you this: Did David Cameron make a big mistake in calling for a referendum?

但我想問你：你是否覺得卡麥倫將這項決定交付公投是錯誤的？

He made a terrible mistake. And if it's a Leave vote, he will go down in history as the Prime Minister who made the biggest peace time,if you like, mistake in post-war history.

我覺得他犯了一個天大的錯誤。如果最後的決議出來是脫歐，那他將會成為戰後、和平時代裡作出最大的決策錯誤的首相

As for the result, I think one can say one thing: if the normal rules of politics still apply, we will vote to remain.

至於結果的話，我想我可以這麼說：如果這次的公投按照正常的政治原則進行的話，我們應該會留歐

If the rules of politics have been completely overturned, we will vote Leave and America should start thinking about a Donald Trump presidency.

如果完全不按常理的話，那我們會決定脫歐，而美國必須要認真思考川普有可能會當選為總統這件事

Philip Stephens, thank you very much.

非常謝謝你的解說，菲利普