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  • You'll be happy to know that I'll be talking not about my own tragedy,

    各位應該會很高興,我今天不講我自己的悲劇

  • but other people's tragedy.

    只會講別人的悲劇

  • It's a lot easier to be lighthearted about other people's tragedy

    講別人的慘事比講你自己的輕鬆多了

  • than your own,

    況且我希望今天的演講氣氛輕鬆愉快

  • and I want to keep it in the spirit of the conference.

    好,如果你相信媒體所言

  • So, if you believe the media accounts,

    認為在快克古柯鹼盛行的高峰期,當個毒販

  • being a drug dealer in the height of the crack cocaine epidemic

    是相當光鮮亮麗的工作--套用作家帕斯楚的話

  • was a very glamorous life, in the words of Virginia Postrel.

    有錢花、有毒吸、坐擁槍枝和女人

  • There was money, there was drugs, guns, women,

    只要你想得到:珠寶、金光閃閃的首飾,應有盡有

  • you know, you name it -- jewelry, bling-bling -- it had it all.

    但我今天要告訴各位,事實上,根據十年的研究

  • What I'm going to tell you today is that, in fact, based on 10 years of research,

    在一次深入幫派的難得機會中

  • a unique opportunity to go inside a gang --

    親眼見到幫派的帳冊,看到他們的財務紀錄後

  • to see the actual books, the financial records of the gang --

    我們發現,幫派生活一點都不光鮮亮麗

  • that the answer turns out not to be

    更實際一點,我認為當個幫派弟兄

  • that being in the gang was a glamorous life.

    為幫派販毒,可能是全美國最糟糕的工作

  • But I think, more realistically, that being in a gang --

    這就是我今天想要說服各位的

  • selling drugs for a gang -- is perhaps the worst job in all of America.

    因此我要做三件事情

  • And that's what I'd like to convince you of today.

    首先,我要解釋快克古柯鹼如何、以及為何

  • So there are three things I want to do.

    對貧民區幫派造成這麼深遠的影響

  • First, I want to explain how and why crack cocaine

    第二,我想告訴各位,像我這種人

  • had such a profound influence on inner-city gangs.

    如何能夠一探幫派的內部運作

  • Secondly, I want to tell you

    我覺得這是個很有趣的故事

  • how somebody like me came to be able to see

    第三,我想以非常淺顯易懂的方法

  • the inner workings of a gang -- an interesting story, I think.

    告訴各位我們從

  • And then third, I want to tell you, in a very superficial way,

    幫派的財務紀錄,從他們的帳冊中發現了什麼

  • about some of the things we found

    但在開始之前,我要先警告各位

  • when we actually got to look at the financial records,

    本演講經美國電影協會列為限制級

  • the books, of the gang.

    內容涉及成人議題及成人語言

  • So before I do that, just one warning,

    不過看到眼前這位仁兄,各位應該會很高興得知

  • which is that this presentation has been rated 'R'

    本演講不會出現裸露畫面

  • by the Motion Picture Association of America.

    除了

  • It contains adult themes, adult language.

    (笑聲)

  • Given who is up on the stage, you'll be delighted to know

    意外穿幫事件以外

  • that, in fact, there'll be no nudity --

    (笑聲)

  • (Laughter)

    首先來談談快克古柯鹼,以及它如何改變了幫派生態

  • Unexpected wardrobe malfunctions aside.

    但我們得先回顧快克古柯鹼盛行以前的情形

  • (Laughter)

    回到80年代初期,以幫派老大的角度來思考

  • So let me start by talking about crack cocaine,

    在80年代中期在貧民區當個幫派老大沒什麼不好

  • and how it transformed the gang.

    有些人甚至會說在80年代初期也不錯

  • To do that, you have to actually go back to a time before crack cocaine,

    你握有權勢,可以揍人

  • in the early '80s, and look at it from the perspective of a gang leader.

    名聲響亮,又受人敬重

  • Being a gang leader in the inner city wasn't such a bad deal in the mid-'80s --

    但你沒什麼賺頭,明白嗎?

  • the early '80s, let me say.

    以前的幫派沒有賺錢的管道

  • Now, you had a lot of power, and you got to beat people up --

    他們沒法跟幫派成員收會費

  • you got a lot of prestige, a lot of respect.

    因為大家都是窮光蛋

  • But the thing is, there was no money in it.

    賣大麻也賺不了多少錢

  • The gang had no way to make money.

    因為大麻太便宜了

  • You couldn't charge dues to the people in the gang,

    沒辦法靠賣大麻致富

  • because the people in the gang didn't have any money.

    你也不能賣古柯鹼

  • You couldn't really make any money selling marijuana --

    你知道,古柯鹼是好貨,我說的是粉狀古柯鹼

  • marijuana's too cheap, it turns out.

    但是你得認識有錢的白人

  • You can't get rich selling marijuana.

    而貧民區幫派弟兄怎麼會認識這種人

  • You couldn't sell cocaine;

    所以他們沒有市場通路

  • cocaine's a great product -- powdered cocaine --

    你也不能偷拐搶騙

  • but you've got to know rich white people.

    靠小奸小惡謀生太辛苦了

  • And most of the inner-city gang members didn't know any rich white people,

    因此

  • so couldn't sell to that market.

    身為一個幫派老大,你有權有勢

  • You couldn't really do petty crime, either.

    生活過得還不錯

  • Turns out, petty crime's a terrible way to make a living.

    問題是,到頭來你還是得跟媽媽住

  • As a result, as a gang leader, you had, you know, power --

    所以這不太能算是一個事業

  • it's a pretty good life -- but the thing was, in the end,

    怎麼說呢

  • you were living at home with your mother.

    你的權勢和地位似乎有個底限

  • And so it wasn't really a career.

    畢竟你還住在家裡靠媽媽養

  • There were limits to how powerful and important you could be

    後來,快克古柯鹼出現了

  • if you had to live at home with your mother.

    套用葛拉威爾剛剛所說的,快克古柯鹼

  • Then along comes crack cocaine.

    對貧民區居民而言,就是特大顆粒的蕃茄醬

  • And in the words of Malcolm Gladwell,

    (笑聲)

  • crack cocaine was the extra-chunky version of tomato sauce

    快克古柯鹼是個不可思議的創新

  • for the inner city.

    我沒有時間就此深談

  • (Laughter)

    但想想,過去二十五年來

  • Because crack cocaine was an unbelievable innovation.

    美國出現的所有發明或創新

  • I don't have time to talk about it today, but if you think about it,

    對貧民區居民福祉影響最深遠的

  • I would say that in the last 25 years,

    就是快克古柯鹼

  • of every invention or innovation that's occurred in this country,

    但是我指的是負面影響,沒有提升,反而降低了福祉

  • the biggest one in terms of impact

    它對生活影響甚鉅

  • on the well-being of people who live in the inner city,

    快克古柯鹼究竟有什麼魅力?

  • was crack cocaine.

    它能讓大腦興奮

  • And for the worse -- not for the better, but for the worse.

    因為快克古柯檢可以用口吸入,粉狀古柯鹼沒辦法

  • It had a huge impact on life.

    藉由口腔吸食,更能享受快感

  • So what was it about crack cocaine?

    比用鼻子吸食粉狀古柯鹼還有效

  • It was a brilliant way of getting the brain high.

    所以一群從未吸食過快克古柯鹼的人

  • Because you could smoke crack cocaine -- you can't smoke powdered cocaine --

    在吸過之後紛紛上癮

  • and smoking is a much more efficient mechanism of delivering a high

    它是非常棒的毒品,你可以

  • than snorting it.

    用一美元買進,以五美元售出

  • And it turned out there was this audience that didn't know it wanted crack cocaine,

    具有高度成癮性--快感非常短暫

  • but when it came, it really did.

    你享受了十五分鐘的快感

  • And it was a perfect drug;

    藥效退去後,又渴求更多快感

  • you could buy the cocaine that went into it for a dollar,

    這造就了非常完美的市場需求

  • sell it for five dollars.

    對於掌管幫派的人而言

  • Highly addictive -- the high was very short.

    這似乎是個生財致富的好方法

  • So for fifteen minutes, you get this great high,

    至少對位居上位的幫派大老是如此

  • and then when you come down,

    此時我們研究人員出場了

  • all you want to do is get high again.

    其實不是我本人,我只是幕後黑手

  • It created a wonderful market.

    這個研究的共同作者蘇西耶凡卡德希才是主角

  • And for the people who were there running the gang,

    他大學主修數學,心地善良

  • it was a great way, seemingly, to make a lot of money.

    想要攻讀社會學博士

  • At least for the people on the top.

    因此前來就讀芝加哥大學

  • So this is where we enter the picture.

    他在抵達芝加哥的前三個月

  • Not really me -- I'm really a bit player in all this.

    都在追隨搖滾樂團「死之華」

  • My co-author, Sudhir Venkatesh, is the main character.

    他自稱外表「活像個怪胎」

  • He was a math major in college who had a good heart,

    南亞裔,皮膚黝黑

  • and decided he wanted to get a sociology PhD,

    身材高壯,一頭長髮「及屁」

  • came to the University of Chicago.

    他顛覆了各種界限:他是黑人還是白人?男人還是女人

  • Now, the three months before he came to Chicago,

    真的是個非常醒目的人物

  • he had spent following the Grateful Dead.

    於是他出現在芝加哥大學

  • And in his own words, he "looked like a freak."

    當時著名的社會學家威爾森

  • He's a South Asian -- very dark-skinned South Asian.

    正在撰寫一本書,需要訪查芝加哥各地的居民

  • Big man, and he had hair, in his words, "down to his ass."

    他看著來幫忙研究的蘇西耶

  • Defied all kinds of boundaries:

    知道應該派這個學生去哪兒

  • Was he black or white? Was he man or woman?

    他要派他去最恐怖、最惡名昭彰的國宅

  • He was really a curious sight to be seen.

    而且訪查範圍不僅限於芝加哥,還遍及全美

  • So he showed up at the University of Chicago,

    來自郊區的蘇西耶,壓根兒沒去過貧民區

  • and the famous sociologist William Julius Wilson

    仍盡責地帶著寫字夾板,走到國宅區

  • was doing a book that involved surveying people all across Chicago.

    來到第一棟樓前

  • He took one look at Sudhir, who was going to go do some surveys for him,

    情形如何?嗯,没半個人影

  • and decided he knew exactly the place to send him,

    但他聽到樓梯間傳來聲響,於是爬上樓梯

  • which was to one of the toughest, most notorious housing projects

    走到轉角處

  • not just in Chicago, but in the entire United States.

    看見一群年輕黑人在玩骰子

  • So Sudhir, the suburban boy who had never really been in the inner city,

    這是1990年的事了,正逢快克古柯鹼高峰期

  • dutifully took his clipboard and walked down to this housing project,

    為幫派做事非常危險,因此你不喜歡出其不意

  • gets to the first building.

    不喜歡有人出其不意出現在轉角處

  • The first building? Well, there's nobody there.

    你的座右銘是:先開槍再說

  • But he hears some voices up in the stairwell,

    但蘇西耶很走運

  • so he climbs up the stairwell, comes around the corner,

    他像個書呆子

  • and finds a group of young African-American men playing dice.

    手上的夾板可能救了他一條小命,因為幫派弟兄想

  • This is about 1990, peak of the crack epidemic.

    沒有仇家會拿個寫字板來槍殺我們

  • This is a very dangerous job, being in a gang.

    (笑聲)

  • You don't like to be surprised.

    所以即便他沒有受到熱烈歡迎,對方倒說

  • You don't like to be surprised by people who come around the corner.

    嗯,好吧,把你的問題說來聽聽

  • And the mantra was: shoot first; ask questions later.

    我没跟各位說笑,他手上的問卷上第一道題目是:

  • Now, Sudhir was lucky -- he was such a freak,

    「在美國當個窮黑人的感覺如何?」

  • and that clipboard probably saved his life,

    (笑聲)

  • because they figured no other rival gang member

    真想不透學術界的人腦袋裡裝什麼,對不對?

  • would be coming up to shoot at them with a clipboard.

    (笑聲)

  • (Laughter)

    題目的選項為: 1.非常好 2.好 3.不好 4.非常不好

  • So his greeting was not particularly warm, but they did say,

    蘇西耶發現,實際受訪者回答如下:

  • well, OK -- let's hear your questions on your survey.

    (5. 幹!) (笑聲)

  • So -- I kid you not --

    但這個問卷並沒有讓蘇西耶就此脫身

  • the first question on the survey that he was sent to ask was:

    他被押做人質,整晚關在樓梯間

  • "How do you feel about being poor and Black in America?"

    晚上槍聲四起

  • (Laughter)

    他和弟兄也聊了許多哲學議題

  • Makes you wonder about academics.

    次日早上,幫派老大來了

  • (Laughter)

    打量了蘇西耶一番

  • So the choice of answers were:

    認定他不具威脅性,決定讓他回家

  • [A) Very Good B) Good C) Bad D) Very Bad]

    所以蘇西耶回到家,沖了澡,睡一覺

  • (Laughter)

    換做你我,在這種情況下可能會決定

  • What Sudhir found out is, in fact, that the real answer was the following:

    嗯,我想我的博士論文還是寫「死之華」好了

  • [A) Very Good B) Good C) Bad D) Very Bad E) Fuck you]

    畢竟我已經研究他們三個月了

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • The survey was not, in the end, going to be what got Sudhir off the hook.

    但蘇西耶很快就又回去了--他再度來到國宅前

  • He was held hostage overnight in the stairwell.

    爬上階梯,走到二樓說:「嘿,大夥兒」

  • There was a lot of gunfire,

    「我昨晚跟大家玩得挺愉快的」

  • there were a lot of philosophical discussions he had with the gang members.

    「今天晚上還可以跟你們玩嗎」

  • By morning, the gang leader arrived,

    這是一段動人情誼的開端

  • checked out Sudhir, decided he was no threat,

    蘇西耶前後在國宅內住了十年

  • and they let him go home.

    期間出入古柯鹼交易場所、和幫派弟兄蹲過苦牢

  • So Sudhir went home, took a shower, took a nap.

    車窗被槍射得滿天飛

  • And you and I, probably, faced with the situation, would think,

    警察闖進家門沒收電腦硬碟

  • "I guess I'm going to write my dissertation on The Grateful Dead,

    什麼衰事都遇過

  • I've been following them for the last three months."

    但蘇西耶的故事有個美滿的結局

  • (Laughter)

    他成了美國最受敬重的社會學家之一

  • Sudhir, on the other hand,

    我更是享盡好處,只要坐在辦公室裡開著Excel的表格

  • got right back, walked down to the housing project,

    等著蘇西耶跟我報到,乖乖奉上最新的...

  • went up to the second floor,

    幫派資料

  • and said: "Hey, guys, I had so much fun hanging out with you last night,

    那真是最不平等的共同作者關係之一

  • I wonder if I could do it again tonight."

    (笑聲)

  • And that was the beginning of what turned out to be a beautiful relationship

    但我很慶幸我是獲益的一方

  • that involved Sudhir living in the housing project on and off for 10 years,

    我們有什麼發現?從幫派身上知道什麼?讓我說件事

  • hanging out in crack houses, going to jail with the gang members,

    我們真的接觸了幫派裡的每個成員

  • having the windows shot out of his car,

    得以從上到下裡裡外外一探幫派究竟

  • having the police break into his apartment and steal his computer disks --

    他們信賴蘇西耶,學術界從沒有其他人辦到過

  • you name it.

    任何人、任何圈外人,從未有人贏得過這些幫派這等信賴

  • But ultimately, the story has a happy ending for Sudhir,

    他們甚至對他開誠佈公,公開我認為最有趣的東西:

  • who became one of the most respected sociologists in the country.

    幫派的帳冊,他們的財務紀錄

  • And especially for me,

    也讓我們有機會過目

  • as I sat in my office with my Excel spreadsheet open,

    我們不但能夠研究帳冊,還能提問

  • waiting for Sudhir to come and deliver to me the latest load of data

    因此,如果要我扼要說明

  • that he would get from the gang.

    我從這個幫派身上學到的要點

  • (Laughter)

    就是,如果將幫派比擬為任何組織

  • It was one of the most unequal co-authoring relationships ever --

    那會是麥當勞

  • (Laughter)

    在很多方面,幫派與麥當勞餐廳有相似之處

  • But I was glad to be the beneficiary of it.

    首先,這也許不是最有趣的面向

  • So what did we find?

    但很適合做開頭--兩者的組織方式類似

  • What did we find in the gang?

    幫派的階層制度形似麥當勞

  • Well, let me say one thing:

    這是幫派的組織架構圖

  • We really got access to everybody in the gang.

    不知道是否有人熟悉組織架構圖

  • We got an inside look at the gang, from the very bottom up to the very top.

    但如果你要畫一個簡單版的麥當勞企業組織架構圖

  • They trusted Sudhir, in ways that really no academic has ever --

    就長得像這樣

  • or really anybody, any outsider -- has ever earned the trust of these gangs,

    這相當驚人,但幫派的高層

  • to the point where they actually opened up

    還真的自稱為「董事會」

  • what was most interesting for me -- their books,

    (笑聲)

  • the financial records they kept.

    蘇西耶說,這不是說這些人很懂

  • They made them available to us, and we not only could study them,

    美國企業運作模式云云

  • but we could ask them questions about what was in them.

    但他們看過《華爾街》這類的電影

  • So if I have to kind of summarize very quickly in the short time I have

    對於現實社會的運作方式略知一二

  • what the bottom line of what I take away from the gang is,

    而在董事會下面,有地區副總裁

  • it's that, if I had to draw a parallel between the gang

    比如說,負責芝加哥南部的、或管西部的副總裁

  • and any other organization,

    蘇西耶甚至熟識一個可憐的傢伙

  • it would be that the gang is just like McDonald's,

    被分到負責愛荷華的分支

  • in a lot of different respects -- the restaurant McDonald's.

    (笑聲)

  • So first, in one way,

    結果發現,這支黑人幫派在愛荷華

  • which isn't maybe the most interesting way, but it's a good way to start --

    實在賺不到什麼錢

  • is in the way it's organized, the hierarchy of the gang,

    (笑聲)

  • the way it looks.

    但幫派近似麥當勞之處,正是各地的加盟處

  • So here's what the org chart of the gang looks like.

    這些人負責經營地區幫派

  • I don't know if you know much about org charts,

    也就是長寬各四個街區大小的地盤

  • but if you were to assign a stripped-down and simplified McDonald's org chart,

    他們就像經營麥當勞的人

  • this is exactly what it would look like.

    都是企業家

  • It's amazing, but the top level of the gang,

    擁有專屬產權,可以控制毒品交易

  • they actually call themselves the "Board of Directors."

    打著幫派的名號,方便推銷和行銷

  • (Laughter)

    而幫派的盈虧,基本上都看他們的表現

  • And Sudhir says

    端看事業經營狀況好壞

  • it's not like these guys had a very sophisticated view

    但我希望各位思考的,是這些位於階層最底端的

  • of what happened in American corporate life,

    小囉嘍

  • but they had seen movies like "Wall Street,"

    這些小囉嘍基本上都是青少年

  • and they had learned a little bit about what it was like

    站在街角賣毒品

  • to be in the real world.

    這是極其危險的工作

  • Now, below that board of directors,

    要注意的是,幫派幾乎所有重心、所有人

  • you've got essentially what are regional VPs --

    都屬於組織最底層

  • people who control, say, the South Side of Chicago, or the West Side of Chicago.

    對,就像麥當勞一樣

  • Sudhir got to know very well the guy who had the unfortunate assignment

    所以就某方面而言,幫派裡的小囉嘍就像

  • of trying to take the Iowa franchise,

    在麥當勞負責幫你點餐的店員

  • which, it turned out, for this black gang,

    當然,這並非偶然

  • was not one of the more brilliant financial endeavors they undertook.

    事實上,在這些社區裡,他們可能正是同一批人

  • (Laughter)

    在幫派裡當小囉嘍的孩子其實

  • But the thing that really makes the gang seem like McDonald's is its franchisees.

    同一時間也在兼差

  • The guys who are running the local gangs --

    也在麥當勞這種地方打工

  • the four-square-block by four-square-block areas --

    這呼應了我先前所說的

  • they're just like the guys, in some sense, who are running the McDonald's.

    混幫派實在是超爛的工作

  • They are the entrepreneurs.

    因為,如果混幫派那麼美好、這麼好賺

  • They get the exclusive property rights to control the drug-selling.

    這些人幹嘛吃飽沒事去麥當勞兼差?

  • They get the name of the gang behind them, for merchandising and marketing.

    他們薪水多少?各位可能會嚇一跳

  • And they're the ones who basically make the profit or lose a profit,

    根據實際上的

  • depending on how good they are at running the business.

    訪談和帳冊紀錄

  • Now, the group I really want you to think about, though,

    他們領的薪水大概這樣

  • are the ones at the bottom -- the foot soldiers.

    這些小囉嘍的時薪是三塊半美元

  • These are the teenagers, typically,

    低於基本薪資,對吧?這都是有根據的

  • who'd be standing out on the street corner, selling the drugs.

    這些數據從他們的支出紀錄很容易得出

  • Extremely dangerous work.

    這不是瞎掰,是切確的事實

  • And important to note is that almost all of the weight, all of the people

    幫派賺不了多少錢,尤其最底層的小囉嘍

  • in this organization are at the bottom -- just like McDonald's.

    如果你有機會升等,成為地區負責人

  • So in some sense, the foot soldiers are a lot like the people

    同等於麥當勞分店長

  • who are taking your order at McDonald's,

    你的年薪是十萬美金

  • and it's not just by chance that they're like them.

    就某方面而言,這就是你夢想中最好的工作了

  • In fact, in these neighborhoods, they'd be the same people.

    身為年輕黑人男性,從小在貧民區長大,這大概是最好的工作了

  • So the same kids who are working in the gang were actually,

    若你得以升到最高層

  • at the very same time, typically working part-time

    每年大概可以賺二十到四十萬美金

  • at a place like McDonald's.

    沒錯,你得以功成名就

  • Which already foreshadows the main result that I've talked about,

    而快克古柯鹼造成的悲劇之一,除了其他數不盡的後果以外

  • about what a crappy job it was, being in the gang.

    就是,貧民區裡最有才華的孩子

  • Because obviously, if being in the gang were such a wonderful, lucrative job,

    只懷有這樣的夢想

  • why in the world would these guys moonlight at McDonald's?

    他們追尋成功的方法並不合法

  • So what do the wages look like? You might be surprised.

    因為根本就沒有合法的途徑

  • But based on being able to talk to them and to see their records,

    這就是最好的出路了

  • this is what it looks like in terms of the wages.

    事實上,他們藉由這種方式出頭天,也許是正確的選擇

  • The hourly wage the foot soldiers were earning was $3.50 an hour.

    看看這個

  • It was below the minimum wage. And this is well-documented.

    我們頗析幫派與麥當勞的關連

  • It's easy to see by the patterns of consumption they have.

    各階層的薪水看起來差不多

  • It really is not fiction -- it's fact.

    為什麼這是個爛工作?

  • There was very little money in the gang, especially at the bottom.

    嗯,這工作之所以爛,是因為有人

  • Now if you managed to rise up, say, and be that local leader,

    常常會對你開槍

  • the guy who's the equivalent of the McDonald's franchisee,

    那,這種槍擊事件的死亡率是多少

  • you'd be making 100,000 dollars a year.

    我們所研究的這個幫派,當然這不能

  • And that, in some ways, was the best job you could hope to get

    適用於所有幫派的情況

  • if you were growing up in one of these neighborhoods as a young black male.

    當時暴力事件頻仍,有許多幫派械鬥

  • If you managed to rise to the very top,

    這支幫派後來勢力壯大,但也付出了代價

  • 200,000 or 400,000 dollars a year is what you'd hope to make.

    因此死亡率--先不算被逮補的機率

  • Truly, you would be a great success story.

    也不算坐牢、受傷率,光是如此,樣本裡的死亡率

  • And one of the sad parts of this is that, indeed,

    就高達每年每人百分之七

  • among the many other ramifications of crack cocaine

    若在幫派混個四年,你可以預期死亡率有百分之二十五

  • is that the most talented individuals in these communities --

    這是很高的比例

  • this is what they were striving for.

    做個比較,我們拿其他行業為例

  • They weren't trying to make it in legitimate ways,

    其他高風險的行業

  • because there were no legitimate channels out.

    像是殺人犯

  • This was the best way out.

    你被判謀殺罪,關進死刑犯監獄

  • And it actually was the right choice, probably,

    結果,死刑犯監獄的死亡率

  • to try to make it out this way.

    列入所有死因,包括處決,是一年百分之二

  • You look at this,

    (笑聲)

  • the relationship to McDonald's breaks down here.

    所以當個死刑犯比在街頭販毒還要安全

  • The money looks about the same.

    這讓人不禁思考,讓各位重新思考

  • Why is it such a bad job?

    死刑對犯罪真的有極大的嚇阻作用嗎

  • Well, the reason it's such a bad job is that there's somebody shooting at you

    讓各位了解快克古柯鹼盛行時,貧民區的情況多糟糕

  • a lot of the time.

    我沒有刻意只報憂不報喜

  • So, with shooting at you, what are the death rates?

    但這邊另一個故事要跟各位分享

  • We found, in our gang --

    看看死亡率

  • and admittedly, this was not really a standard situation;

    任何一個在美國貧民區成長的年輕黑人男性

  • this was a time of intense violence, of a lot of gang wars,

    在快克古柯鹼盛行時,死亡率大約是百分之一

  • as this gang actually became quite successful.

    這是非常高的比率

  • But there were costs.

    而且是死於暴力事件--這令人難以置信

  • And so the death rate --

    換個角度,如果和伊拉克的美軍死亡率相比較

  • not to mention the rate of being arrested, sent to prison, being wounded --

    舉例而言,目前在那打仗的美軍死亡率是:百分之零點五

  • the death rate in our sample was seven percent per person per year.

    所以說這些在美國長大的年輕黑人男性

  • You're in the gang for four years,

    是活在戰區裡,一點也不為過

  • you expect to die with about a 25 percent likelihood.

    他們就像在伊拉克打仗的士兵

  • That is about as high as you can get.

    你可能會問,天底下有誰會願意

  • So for comparison's purposes,

    在街角販毒,只為了賺那微薄的時薪三塊半?

  • let's think about some other walk of life you may expect might be extremely risky.

    而且在未來四年內,死亡率還高達百分之二十五?

  • Let's say that you were a murderer

    他們為什麼要這麼做?我認為有幾個答案

  • and you were convicted of murder, and you're sent to death row.

    第一,他們被過去的歷史騙了

  • It turns out, the death rates on death row from all causes, including execution:

    以前加入幫派是成長過程的一部份

  • two percent a year.

    年輕人掌握幫派,而你年紀稍長以後

  • (Laughter)

    就會退出幫派

  • So it's a lot safer being on death row

    但後來

  • than it is selling drugs out on the street.

    某些人在對的時機,身處對的地方

  • That gives you some pause, for those of you who believe

    那些在八十年代中後期擔任幫派老大的人

  • that a death penalty's going to have an enormous deterrent effect on crime.

    個個發了大財

  • To give you a sense of just how bad the inner city was during crack --

    所以當時大家自然會推想:「那麼下一代..」

  • and I'm not really focusing on the negatives,

    「既然現在的老大都會像其他人一樣退休」

  • but really, there's another story to tell you there --

    「之後就換下一代掌權,接管這些財富」

  • if you look at the death rates just of random, young black males

    我認為,這和網路熱潮相當類似,對吧

  • growing up in the inner city in the United States,

    首批進矽谷的電子新貴紛紛致富

  • the death rates during crack were about one percent.

    然後所有人都想:「也許我也該做這行」

  • That's extremely high.

    他們願意削價競爭,只為了永遠不會得到的股票選擇權

  • And this is violent death -- it's unbelievable, in some sense.

    就某方面而言,同樣的事情也發生在

  • To put it into perspective: if you compare this to the soldiers in Iraq,

    我們的研究對象身上,他們願意從基層做起

  • for instance, right now fighting the war: 0.5 percent.

    就像律師事務所的律師

  • So in some very literal way,

    甫執業的小律師之所以願意從基層做起

  • the young black men who were growing up in this country

    每天工作八小時,賺取不甚多的薪資

  • were living in a war zone,

    是因為他們認為自己有天可以成為合夥人

  • very much in the sense that the soldiers over in Iraq are fighting in a war.

    但後來遊戲規則改變,他們永遠當不上合夥人

  • So why in the world, you might ask,

    沒錯,在八十年代末期掌管各大幫派的人

  • would anybody be willing to stand out on a street corner

    正是現在掌管芝加哥大幫派的同一批人

  • selling drugs for $3.50 an hour,

    他們從未將任何財富傳承下去

  • with a 25 percent chance of dying over the next four years?

    因此每個人都被時薪三塊半的工作套牢,悲慘至極

  • Why would they do that?

    此外,幫派非常、非常擅長行銷和詐騙

  • And I think there are a couple answers.

    例如,幫派會做這種事

  • I think the first one is that they got fooled by history.

    你知道,幫派老大的排場都很大

  • It used to be the gang was a rite of passage;

    開名車,佩戴高級珠寶

  • that the young people controlled the gang;

    蘇西耶和他們相處久了之後發現

  • that as you got older, you dropped out of the gang.

    其實,這些車根本不是老大的

  • So what happened was,

    是租來的,因為他們買不起名車

  • the people who happened to be in the right place at the right time --

    他們也沒有金飾,那些是鍍金的

  • the people who happened to be leading the gang in the mid-to-late-'80s --

    一切都是真真假假真真

  • became very, very wealthy.

    說實在,他們這麼做是為了欺騙青少年

  • And so the logical thing to think

    讓青少年以為混幫派是多麼了不起的事情

  • was that they are going to age out of the gang

    舉例而言,他們會給十四歲的孩子

  • like everybody else has,

    一大疊鈔票拿在手上

  • and the next generation is going to take over and get the wealth.

    十四歲的小孩會覺得:「哇賽...」

  • There are striking similarities, I think, to the Internet boom.

    你知道,他會向朋友誇耀

  • The first set of people in Silicon Valley got very, very rich.

    「看!我在幫派裡得到這麼多錢」

  • And then all of my friends said, "Maybe I should go do that, too."

    但那筆錢不是他的,等到他花掉那些錢之後

  • And they were willing to work very cheap for stock options that never came.

    他就欠幫派債了,之後就算是簽了契約的奴隸

  • In some sense, that's what happened, exactly,

    看來我還有一些時間

  • to the set of people we were looking at.

    我們講最後一件事

  • They were willing to start at the bottom,

    我没想到我們有時間談談

  • just like, say, a first-year lawyer at a law firm

    我們從幫派身上學到了什麼經濟學

  • is willing to start at the bottom,

    經濟學家老愛用術語

  • work 80-hour weeks for not that much money,

    經濟學理論一牽扯到統計數據,就玩完了

  • because they think they're going to make partner.

    但有趣的是,在這個情境下

  • But the rules changed, and they never got to make partner.

    有些不怎麼樣的經濟學理論

  • Indeed, the same people who were running all of the major gangs in the late 1980s

    放在毒品經濟學裡面卻非常適切

  • are still running the major gangs in Chicago today.

    這可說是因為毒品交易是不受約束的資本主義

  • They never passed on any of the wealth,

    這是個經濟學原則

  • So everybody got stuck at that $3.50-an-hour job,

    是勞動經濟學的基礎,叫做「補償性工資差異」

  • and it turned out to be a disaster.

    基本上就是說,你要調高勞工多少薪資

  • The other thing the gang was very good at was marketing and trickery.

    他才會心甘情願離開現有的工作崗位

  • And so for instance, one thing the gang would do is --

    去從事另一個較辛苦的工作

  • the gang leaders would have big entourages,

    這就是所謂的補償性工資差異

  • and they'd drive fancy cars and have fancy jewelry.

    這就是為什麼我們認為垃圾工人的薪水比公園清道夫高一點,對吧?

  • So what Sudhir eventually realized as he hung out with them more,

    因此,套用一個幫派弟兄的話,這理論就清楚明白了

  • is that, really, they didn't own those cars -- they just leased them,

    我們發現--我好像把後面的話先講出來了

  • because they couldn't afford to own the fancy cars.

    我們發現,在幫派裡,如果有械鬥發生

  • And they didn't really have gold jewelry, they had gold-plated jewelry.

    小囉嘍的薪水是平常的兩倍

  • It goes back to, you know, the real-real versus the fake-real.

    這是相同的概念

  • And really, they did all sorts of things to trick the young people

    因為沒人要冒險

  • into thinking what a great deal the gang was going to be.

    有個幫派弟兄掌握了其中的精髓

  • So for instance, they would give a 14-year-old kid

    他說「如果這邊鳥事一堆,你還會不閃嗎?」鳥事指的是槍戰

  • a whole roll of bills to hold.

    「一定閃的呀,對吧?」

  • That 14-year-old kid would say to his friends,

    「所以如果要我冒著小命待在這裡拼命,那就把錢拿來」

  • "Hey, look at all the money I got in the gang."

    基本上,我覺得這位弟兄把這個概念解釋得

  • It wasn't his money -- until he spent it,

    比任何經濟學家都要清楚

  • and then he was in debt to the gang,

    (笑聲)

  • and was sort of an indentured servant for a while.

    再舉一個例子

  • So I have a couple minutes.

    經濟學家提出賽局理論

  • Let me do one last thing I hadn't thought I'd have time to do,

    也就是,所有兩人對峙的賽局都會形成自然的平衡

  • which is to talk about what we learned more generally about economics,

    用幫派弟兄的話翻譯一下

  • from the study of the gang.

    弟兄們談到為什麼他們不會亂開槍

  • So, economists tend to talk in technical words.

    開槍搗亂是幫派裡最佳商業策略

  • Often, our theories fail quite miserably when we over the data,

    如果你對空開槍,只要去別幫的地盤上對空鳴槍

  • but what's kind of interesting is that in this setting,

    大家就不敢去他們那裡買毒品

  • it turned out that some of the economic theories

    所有人都會到你的地盤上買

  • that worked not so well in the real economy

    但這位弟兄解釋為什麼他們不來這套

  • worked very well in the drug economy,

    他說:「如果我們在那裡(別幫的地盤上)開槍,沒半個人」

  • in some sense, because it's unfettered capitalism.

    「你瞭嗎,没半個人敢踏上他們的地盤」

  • Here's an economic principle.

    「但我們皮得繃緊一點」

  • This is one of the basic ideas in labor economics,

    「因為他們也會來我們的地盤上開槍,我們就死定了」

  • called a "compensating differential."

    (笑聲)

  • It's the idea that the increment to wages that a worker requires

    這是完全相同的概念

  • to leave him indifferent between performing two tasks,

    但有時候,經濟學家也會搞錯

  • one which is more unpleasant than the other.

    我們從研究資料中得到一個發現,這近似於..

  • Compensating differential -- it's why we think garbagemen might be paid more

    幫派老大總是有薪水可領,對吧

  • than people who work in parks.

    不管經濟狀況多糟,他都會確保自己有錢領

  • The words of one of the members of the gang, I think, make this clear.

    我們也有一些有關現金流動的理論

  • So it turns out -- I'm sort of getting ahead of myself --

    缺乏資本市場通路云云

  • it turns out, in the gang, when there's a war going on,

    但我們問幫派弟兄:

  • they actually pay the foot soldiers twice as much money.

    「嗯,為什麼你總是有薪水可拿,手下卻没這種命?」

  • It's exactly this concept.

    他回答:「手下那些黑鬼都在覬覦你的地位,瞭嗎?」

  • Because they're not willing to be at risk.

    「如果你開始自負盈虧,他們就會覺得你整個弱掉」

  • And the words of a gang member capture it quite nicely, he says:

    我思索了一會兒

  • "Would you stand around here when all this shit ..." -- the shooting --

    「總裁常給自己上百萬的紅利」

  • "... if all this shit's going on? No, right?

    「即便公司面臨重大虧損,仍有紅利可拿」

  • So if I gonna be asked to put my life on the line, then front me the cash, man."

    但經濟學家從沒想過這可能和「整個弱掉」的概念

  • I think the gang member says it much more articulately

    有重大關連

  • than the economist, about what's going on.

    也許「整個弱掉」

  • (Laughter)

    也許「整個弱掉」這樣的假說值得深入探討

  • Here's another one.

    謝謝大家

  • Economists talk about game theory,

  • that every two-person game has a Nash equilibrium.

  • Here's the translation you get from the gang member.

  • They're talking about the decision of why they don't go shoot --

  • One thing that turns out to be a great business tactic in the gang:

  • if you go and just shoot guns in the air in the other gang's territory --

  • people are afraid to go buy drugs there,

  • they're going to come into your neighborhood.

  • Here's what he says about why they don't do that:

  • "If we start shooting around there, the other gang's territory,

  • nobody, I mean, you dig it, nobody gonna step on their turf.

  • But we gotta be careful,

  • 'cause they can shoot around here too and then we all fucked."

  • (Laughter)

  • So that's the same concept.

  • Then again, sometimes economists get it wrong.

  • One thing we observed in the data is that it looked like --

  • the gang leader always got paid.

  • No matter how bad it was economically, he always got himself paid.

  • We had some theories related to cash flow,

  • and lack of access to capital markets, and things like that.

  • Then we asked the gang member,

  • "Why is it you always get paid and your workers don't always get paid?"

  • His response is,

  • "You got all these niggers below you who want your job, you dig?

  • If you start taking losses, they see you as weak and shit."

  • And I thought about it and said,

  • "CEOs often pay themselves million-dollar bonuses,

  • even when companies are losing a lot of money.

  • And it never would really occur to an economist

  • that this idea of 'weak and shit' could really be important."

  • (Laughter)

  • Maybe "weak and shit" is an important hypothesis that needs more analysis.

  • Thank you very much.

  • (Applause)

You'll be happy to know that I'll be talking not about my own tragedy,

各位應該會很高興,我今天不講我自己的悲劇

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