Let's take a look at the U.S. stock market today.

今天讓我們來看看美國股市。

Now, it's now almost exactly a year since the S&P 500 hit its all-time high back in May of last year,

現在，剛好是去年標準普爾500指數達到巔峰的一年後，

and it's really quite surprising that it hasn't managed to take that high out in the last few days.

滿驚訝這幾天來沒有再達高峰。

Remember that the strong dollar was held to be a problem,

記得，強勢貨幣是個問題，

the dollar is at its weakest for the year today, it's fallen sharply.

今天是今年美元最低點，他再大幅跌落。

The low oil price was held to be a problem, given the effects it's had on energy stocks, oil is rallying very impressively.

低油價也是個問題，它在能源股市佔一席之地，石油真的很引人注目。

You saw a big write down in expectations on earnings,

你看到這裡大肆紀載著預期所得，

we're half way through the earnings season and generally most companies have beaten those expectations,

我們正值賺錢的時期，大體來說多數的企業都能打破那些預期值。

all good reasons to think that stocks would do well,

各種相信股市會順利的理由，

also you're seeing continued bullishness as far as equity investors are concerned that the Fed isn't going to raise rates any time soon,

你也看到只要投資者擔心美聯儲近期內不會升息，景氣就會持續看漲，

not until December if you believe the Futures Market.

如果你相信未來市場的話，應該12月前都無會升息。

So, why haven't we taken out last May's high?

所以，為甚麼今年的股市不如去年五月呢?

If we take a look at this chart, you can see one rather negative way of looking at it

如果我們仔細看看這個圖表，你可以用一個相對負面的方式看它。

is that the leadership that the markets had required over the last year from the Tech sector is now dramatically absent.

去年主導市場的科技業今年是否戲劇性的缺席了呢。

This shows you the Information Technology sector relative to the rest of the S&P and you can see that it has come down to Earth dramatically,

這表示科技部門與標準普爾500指數息息相關，並且它戲劇性的大跌，

companies like Microsoft and Apple disappointed with their revenue projections, disappointed with their earnings, and were punished very severely.

微軟和蘋果等企業的預期收益、獲利皆令人失望，且他們也因此受到嚴重的懲罰。

There is, however, a more positive gloss you can put on this.

但是，也有一種比較正面解釋。

If we take a look at this chart, you can see that the market has broadened,

如果我們看看這張圖表你可以看到市場被擴大了，

what we're looking at here is the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index, that's where every stock regardless of its size is given 0.2% of the Index,

這邊看到的是標準普爾500指數的等權重指數，每一家公司，不論大小，它的比重就是0.2%，

and how that's doing compared to the normal market Cap-Weighted Index.

還有標準普爾500指數的等權重指數與市值加權指數有何差別。

When...last year you see the market Cap-Weighted Index doing significantly better,

當... ... 去年你看到市值加權指數非常的正面，

that is a sign of market narrowness, that the strength in the market was concentrated in a few large cap names,

那其實是市場狹小的徵兆，市場中大部分的實力皆集中於少數公司，

generally a very worrying sign that you're at the end of a bull market.

大致上來說就是牛市中非常不好的徵兆。

As you can see, the market has broadened very significantly and very positively in the last few months,

你可以看到，市場在過去幾個月以來非常正面的擴張，

therefore you could argue that what we've seen has been a period where the market has managed to get itself back into order,

所以，你可以說我們看到的是市場自動回歸均衡的過程，

regain some balance after a period in which some companies have become excessively valued and done so without a really major fall in prices,

在某些企業過分有價值後回歸均衡，並且沒有大跌。

which is what often happens, you could view this positively.

這是常有的是，你可以以很正面的角度看這件事。

If we take a look at another chart, that's a... you can also see that while we're losing old leaders, we might be gaining new ones.

如果我們看這個新的圖表，你可以看到雖然我們失去了慣有的市場領導企業，我們有可能得到新的領導企業。

Apple today dropped back to its lowest level since July 2nd, 2014, which is plainly a negative development, Apple has been very much the leader of this market for a long time.

自2014年7月2日以來，蘋果今天又創新低。很明顯地這是一個面的發展。蘋果長期以來都是這個市場的領頭羊。

But as you can see if you compare that to how Amazon has done over the same period,

但是如果你拿他跟同時期的亞馬遜相比，

there do appear to be other new leaders appearing in its stead.

確實出現了新的領頭羊。

So I still find it very hard to excuse the way in which the market hasn't been taken to new highs despite all the good excuses that traders had to take it up there.

所以我還是覺得要替市場沒有達到新高找藉口很難，儘管有這麼多交易員必須將它推高的好理由。

But there are some arguments that something positive is going on here that we are seeing a change of leadership and a broadening of the market.

但有有此一說，市場正在正面發展，我們正見識著領袖替戶和市場跨張。