And yet the market for lending to them has never been bigger

縱然如此，借他們錢的市場從來沒有像現在這麼興盛過

Here to explain why is the FT's economics writer and the author of a book on the politics of debt, Martin Sandbu

有請金融時報經濟專欄作者，以及一本關於政治及債務的書的作者 Martin Sandbu 來向我們解釋

Martin, thank you very much for joining us

Martin ，非常感謝你的出席

So the first chart that we've got shows just how much governments have borrowed

第一個圖表顯示了各國政府借過多少錢

and it shows how steadily the amounts have increased over time

並且借款規模穩定成長

Why are they borrowing so much?

他們為甚麼要借這麼多錢呢？

It is enormous, isn't it?

這真的很多，對吧？

This is getting up to probably the size of the whole global economy

這差不多要跟全球經濟體一樣龐大了

how much a global economy produces in a year

是全球經濟一年的產量

Governments borrow for good reasons and bad reasons

政府為了各種原因借錢，有好有壞

A good reason could be borrow to invest

好的理由比如借錢來投資

governments can usually borrow at low rates, and they can invest in public goods and infrastructure that benefits the economy

政府通常可以以低利率借到錢，他們可以用來投資公共財或是有利於經濟的基礎建設

could be bad reasons, like wanting to spend a lot without taxing, the population that's electorally beneficial sometimes

也可能是不好的原因，比如逃稅，或是為了選舉目的

but I think a very important thing, and you can see that here, has to do with crisis stabilization

但是我看到一件很重要的事，你可以從這裡看到，跟穩定危機有關係

So you see that this accelerates around the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and 2009

你看這裡在２００８和２００９年金融危機的時候（政府借貸）就加速成長了

And the reason is that when the private sector suddenly stops spending, the economy can collapse

原因是因為當民間消費突然停止，經濟可能大崩盤

if you're to arrest that collapse, the government has to do deficit spending

如果要防止其崩盤，政府必須消費來補足赤字

so they start borrowing basically in order to stabilize the economy, and that's what happened there

所以他們開始借錢，基本上是為了穩定經濟，這就是這裡發生的事

So that explains why governments want to borrow so much

所以這解釋了為甚麼政府想要借那麼多錢

but given the increases happened at around a time of crisis, why would anybody be lending to them?

但既然在危機時刻政府借貸會增加，為甚麼有人會想藉他們錢呢？

Well, that depends a bit on the country

嗯，這有點視國家而定

There are a bunch of different measures that investors might look at

投資者有幾個不同的衡量點

One is simply to look at how much debt the country already has to service

第一是單純看該國家已經累積多少債務

and we can see just how much that varies if you look at the different countries here

這邊我們可以看到這個變數隨著國家不同會大幅改變，

from Japan, infamously huge debt to GDP. Greece, of course, has been in crisis for years and years

從日本，對ＧＤＰ龐大的負債。希臘，當然，已身陷危機數年

and then down to some of the newcomers to debt markets

到一些新的負債國

Saudi Arabia and Argentina both entered markets in 2016 after being out for a while for very different reasons

沙烏地阿拉伯和阿根挺在以不同原因引退後，同時都在２０１６年回歸市場

Saudi because it didn't need the money, Argentina because they were in court for non-payment

沙烏地阿拉伯是因為它不缺錢，阿根挺是因為負債上了法庭

But the point is that they had very little debt outstanding, so once, and you know, legal issues are sorted out

但是重點是他們的負債極少，所以一旦，你知道的，法律問題並不成問題

these would seem like good credits

這讓他們看似信用良好

So credit worthiness isn't just about the amount of money that a country has already borrowed

所以信用價值並不只在於一個國家借了多少錢

It's not just about that. That factor’s in if somebody doesn't owe anything, why wouldn't you lend to them

不只是那樣。另有人毫無負債，為甚麼你不借錢給他的因素

but another thing people look at is does the central bank, does the government issue debt in its own currency?

另一個人們考慮的點是他的中央銀行，政府有在國內發行債券嗎？

Does its central bank print the money that eventually it uses to pay it back

他們是否靠印鈔票來還債

So Japan seems like a safe place because it borrows in yen largely

所以日本看起來很安全，他們用日幣大量借錢

So I think we have a third chart that shows the source of returns that investors can get if they are lending money to Japan, and they are extremely small

所以我想我們有第三張圖表，顯示如果投資者借錢給日本，他們的錢拿不回來的機率，而日本非常小

so I wonder how long you think that this credit boom can continue?

所以我很好奇你覺得這個危機會持續多久？

They are in fact negative, yeah we see here the green line has gone below zero, which is how much the Japanese government has to pay to borrow for 10 years

它其實在負成長，我們可以看到這條綠色的現在０以下，這是日本政府借款１０年所付出的（利息）

actually it's getting paid to take money for 10 years

其實他借錢的這１０年還有賺呢

That's extreme, but you see the same in Germany. You see the same pattern, the downwards slope in borrowing cost for pretty much every government in the world

這真的很極端，但是你看同樣的事也發生在德國，你看同樣的模式，負斜率，幾乎全球所有政府借錢都是這樣了

got U.S. and U.K in red and blue here

美國和英國分別以紅色和藍色呈現

The reason is because central banks are being really active trying to pump money into the economy to get growth going

原因是因為各央行很積極地想要把錢塞進經濟循環裏讓經濟持續成長

That drives interest rates down and that makes it easier for governments to borrow

這使利率下降，政府要借錢也更容易

So it's the central banks that are fueling this credit boom in government debt, in part?

所以各國央行在某部分來說也是在為此危機火上加油的一份子囉？

It's in part the central banks, it's also that the private sector isn't that keen on spending, wants to save

某部分是的，某部分也是因為民間不消費，想存錢

and so there's a lot of saving that has to go somewhere

所以有很多存款該去其他地方

Governments still seem to be the safest, most credit-worthy borrowers out there on the whole

整體來說，政府還是最安全、最有信用的貸款者

So, you know, with this wall of money coming both from central banks and from private savers

所以，你知道的，當這些錢同時從央行和民間部門而來，

governments are there and can pick up cheap borrowing

政府就是既得利益者，可以以低利率借到錢

So the boom will continue for the foreseeable future

所以危機在可預見的未來中還會持續下去

Martin, thank you very much

Martin，非常感謝你