Slower day on markets today, the S&P here in the U.S. finished, down for the day,

股市今天比較慘淡，美國的S&P指數以下跌作收

and we had a negative reaction to earnings from Google and Microsoft after the bell,

而Google和微軟在收盤後呈現負收益

so there's every risk that that'll continue to into the morning.

恐怕這個狀況會持續到明天早上

One thing that is very intriguing, however, was that oil continued its advance,

然而，有個現象非常引人注目，那就是原油價格不斷攀升

and that's really very surprising if you remember the headlines from the weekend.

如果你記得上周末的頭條的話，你大概會覺得這一切非常不可思議

Now if we take a look at this first chart,

我們先看看第一張表

this shows you what has happened since trading opened in Asia on Sunday night.

這張表顯示了從星期天晚上亞洲市場開市以來發生的事

And you can see that there was an immediate reaction to what appeared to be very bad news, if you wanted oil to go up,

如你所見，它對於剛發布的壞消息有非常即時的反應。這個壞消息理論上應該會阻撓原油價格的上升。

that's the OPEC countries had failed to agree on a production freeze that should've, you would have thought, pushed the oil price down,

OPEC未能達成石油凍產協議，照理來說應該會造成原油價格的下跌

instead, as you can see, there has been a well sustained rally upwards in the oil price.

然而，你可以看到原油價格反而持續向上爬升

Now if we look at this in a longer term perspective,

如果我們從長期來看

you can see, yes, we're still a long way down from where we were about two years ago,

你會發現我們目前的原油價格和兩年前相比仍然相距甚遠

but the oil price is now actually back up to roughly where it was early last year,

但大約已經升回去年年初的價格

and after testing that 200-day moving average, that big measure of the long term trend, it does appear to have confirmed itself above that long term trend.

和200日移動平均線這個用來測量長期動向的均線一比，可見原油價格終於爬到它的上方了

This bounce that we have seen in the last few weeks adds up from a trough to a peak, to almost 70% gain in oil, quite remarkable.

我們在過去幾個星期裡看到的反彈相當驚人。原油上升了將近70%，價格從低谷爬到高峰

Now, what is even more remarkable, is that this has been achieved despite the news we had from Doha last weekend.

更驚人的是，這個成長竟是在上星期不甚理想的杜哈凍產協議發佈後達成的

And if we now take a look at U.S. Crude Total Inventories, admittedly this number has a lag,

我們再看看美國原油庫存總量。這個數據的確非即時的

but the inventory continues to rise very sharply indeed, in fact its one of the highest numbers on record,

但是可見原油庫存量陡升，甚至達到了有史以來最高的數字

you would think that would be bad for the oil price.

這個現象理論上對原油價格是不利的

However, the inventory is at least not rising as fast as it can do at this time of year.

但至少美國原油的庫存量的上升並沒有完全發揮他在這個時間點的潛能

And if we now take a look at production numbers for the U.S., you can see that they have begun to decline.

如果我們看一下美國原油的產量的話，可以發現產量已在減少

Again, this number is produced with a lag,

當然，這個數字也非即時的

many people are able to assess rig counts and so on to take a guess as to where production is moving,

許多人會評估鑽油平台的開工數目，藉此推測產量的動向

and so there is a strong belief in the market that fundamentals are moving in favor of the oil price,

所以目前市場上普遍相信基本面是支持石油價格上漲的

that this will... that we are going to see production steadily decline from here and inventories come down from here.

而這會使產量穩定下跌，而庫存量也會隨之下跌

If we do, then the sentiment, which has plainly changed, will be confirmed.

如果事實真是如此的話，那將會應證已然改變的投資者情緒

Obviously things will get a little uglier in the oil market if the fundamentals don't confirm this very striking change in sentiment.

然而，如果基本面沒有順著這個改變而變的話，勢必又會在原油市場上掀起一陣風波