Name: 【TED】凱文-凱利。下一個5000天的網絡（Kevin Kelly：The next 5,000 days of the web）。 (【TED】Kevin Kelly: The next 5,000 days of the web (Kevin Kelly: The next 5,000 days of the web))
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T06:03:06.000Z
Duration: 19 min 35 s

the kind of Web -- the things we're all talking about --

So all of the things that we've seen come about,

starting, say, with satellite images of the whole Earth,

which we couldn't even imagine happening before,

都是你以前無法想像會發生的，

這些闖入我們生活的所有東西，

just this abundance of things that are right before us,

這些多采多姿的東西，就在我們眼前，

sitting in front of our laptop, or our desktop.

在筆記型電腦或桌上型電腦上。

just coming and never ending is amazing, and we're not amazed.

永遠不會停止，真是令人驚訝，但我們好像不覺得驚奇。

It's really amazing that all this stuff is here.

真的很神奇，所有東西都在這兒。

It's in 5,000 days, all this stuff has come.

在短短5000天之內，所有東西都出現了。

if I had told you that this was all coming,

you would have said that that's impossible.

There's simply no economic model that that would be possible.

原因很簡單，沒有任何一套經濟模型能支持它的可能性。

And if I told you it was all coming for free,

you would say, this is simply -- you're dreaming.

You're a Californian utopian. You're a wild-eyed optimist.

你是空想家、你狂熱的樂觀主義者。

The other thing that we know about it was that 10 years ago,

as I looked at what even Wired was talking about,

we thought it was going to be TV, but better.

我們認為下一個產物將會是電視，比電視更好的東西。

That was the model. That was what everybody was suggesting

所以大家都這麼認為它會來臨。

And it turns out that that's not what it was.

結果，它卻不是大家所想像的。

First of all, it was impossible, and it's not what it was.

第一、 它是個不可能；第二、它以前沒有發生過。

And so one of the things that I think we're learning --

it's something that was simply impossible.

It's impossible in theory, but possible in practice.

理論上不可行，但實際上卻可行。

And if you take all these things that are impossible,

I think one of the things that we're learning from this era,

from this last decade, is that we have to get good at believing in the impossible,

我們學到，我們最好接受不可能的事，

So, I'm curious about what's going to happen in the next 5,000 days.

因此我對於未來5000天感到好奇。

But if that's happened in the last 5,000 days,

what's going to happen in the next 5,000 days?

下一個5000天會有什麼事發生呢？

and it suggests that what we want to think about is this thing that we're making,

它提示我們應該好好思考，在下個5000天裡，

this thing that has happened in 5,000 days --

我們將製造出什麼，將發生什麼事。

that's all these computers, all these handhelds,

all these cell phones, all these laptops, all these servers --

手機、筆記型電腦、伺服器…等

basically what we're getting out of all these connections

If there is only one machine, and our little handhelds and devices

"唯一"的一部機器，我們的掌上設備，

are actually just little windows into those machines,

but that we're basically constructing a single, global machine.

我們正在建造的是一部唯一涵蓋全球的機器。

And it turned out that this machine happens to be

the most reliable machine that we've ever made.

有史以來創造過、最可靠的機器。

It has not crashed; it's running uninterrupted.

它從沒當機，它永不停止運算，

And there's almost no other machine that we've ever made

that runs the number of hours, the number of days.

工作時數、工作天數，都要來得持久。

5,000 days without interruption -- that's just unbelievable.

5000天不間斷地運行，真是不可置信。

And of course, the Internet is longer than just 5,000 days;

當然 Internet 的歷史超過5000天，

So, I was trying to basically make measurements.

And I started off by calculating how many billions of clicks there are

all around the globe on all the computers.

And there is a 100 billion clicks per day.

And there's 55 trillion links between all the Web pages of the world.

全世界網頁之間有55兆個連結。

And so I began thinking more about other kinds of dimensions,

因此，我領悟到它是另一種規模。

and I made a quick list. Was it Chris Jordan, the photographer,

我做了一個清單，攝影家克里斯喬丹說過，

talking about numbers being so large that they're meaningless?

當數字太過巨大時，就失去意義了。

Well, here's a list of them. They're hard to tell,

就是這個清單，不是很好閱讀。

but there's one billion PC chips on the Internet,

如果把網路上，所有電腦上的所有晶片都計入的話，

if you count all the chips in all the computers on the Internet.

and it uses five percent of the global electricity on the planet.

just as if you were to make up a spec sheet for it:

170 quadrillion transistors, 55 trillion links,

它擁有170千兆顆電晶體、55兆個連結，

文字簡訊以每秒3萬1千赫傳送，

擁有 246 exabytes (10的18次方) 儲存空間。這可是一個很大的磁碟。

That's a lot of storage, memory. Nine exabyte RAM.

有很多儲存空間，記憶體 (RAM) 為 9 exabytes。

is running at seven terabytes per second.

Brewster was saying the Library of Congress is about twenty terabytes.

Brewster提過，美國國會圖書館擁有大約20兆位元組(TB)的資料。

So every second, half of the Library of Congress

也就是說，每秒就有半個國會圖書館

is swooshing around in this machine. It's a big machine.

掃過這部機器，這是一部超大機器。

So I did something else. I figured out 100 billion clicks per day,

我還發現，1天1千億次滑鼠點擊

A quadrillion transistors is almost the same

So to a first approximation, we have these things --

想當然的，記憶空間相當龐大。

But to a first approximation, the size of this machine is the size --

從剛剛的數據看來，這部機器的規格、

and its complexity, kind of -- to your brain.

與複雜度可以說是，等同於人腦。

Because in fact, that's how your brain works -- in kind of the same way that the Web works.

因為人類大腦的運作方式和網路的運作方式差不多，

However, your brain isn't doubling every two years.

只不過，人腦不會每2年倍數成長。

So if we say this machine right now that we've made

【TED】凱文-凱利。下一個5000天的網絡（Kevin Kelly：The next 5,000 days of the web）。 (【TED】Kevin Kelly: The next 5,000 days of the web (Kevin Kelly: The next 5,000 days of the web))

字幕列表影片播放

【TED】凱文-凱利。下一個5000天的網絡（Kevin Kelly：The next 5,000 days of the web）。 (【TED】Kevin Kelly: The next 5,000 days of the web (Kevin Kelly: The next 5,000 days of the web))

specific

basically

brain

kind