Since China's New Year holiday marked the turning point for assets from oil to stocks,

農曆春節帶來了原油和股票等資產劇烈的價格變動

what might the more global Easter break do to sentiment?

那麼，更為全球性的復活節假期又會帶來甚麼樣的影響？

Investors can only hope.

投資者只能猜測和期待

Since mid-February and that China break, charts have mostly pointed upwards.

自二月中旬，中國春節結束後，市場大致呈現向上發展的趨勢

But the mood has been less one of conviction or even relief than the feeling that what went down will probably go up.

但是瀰漫在市場的氛圍卻不是信心或是解脫感，而是相信否極必定會泰來

Strategists at Société Générale have termed it “risk-uncomfortably-on”.

法國興業銀行的分析師稱它為「不情願的風險追逐狀態」

Nowhere is that clearer than in international sentiment towards China.

這從各國對中國的情緒便顯然可見

Take the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hong Kong listed Chinese stocks, in other words.

來看看恆生中國企業指數，也就是由香港編制發布的中國股票指數

If you compare the 10 worst performers before February 11th with the 10 best performers since that point,

如果你比較一下在2月11號之前表現最差的十支股票，和11號之後表現最佳的十支股票

you'll find many of the same names on both lists.

你會發現許多一樣的名字

That does suggest more short covering than any willingness to bet on specific companies or even sectors for outperformance.

這顯示投資者在進行空頭回補，而不是願意相信特定的公司或產業會有傑出的表現

The strength of bearish views on China, especially among western investors,

部分西方世界的投資者不看好中國的發展

show why fear is still beating conviction.

這顯示出市場上仍然是恐懼當道

But macro bets on a weaker Renminbi have been one of the most crowded and most painful trades of the first quarter.

第一季度許多人大量投資人民幣，期待它持續走弱，卻反而進行了一場不划算的交易

Perhaps refreshed investors next week might be ready to think again.

或許過了下星期，放完假的投資者們能重新思考他們的投資策略

Okay, strong bull calls involving China are very unlikely.

中國不太可能會有牛市的情況

But there are tactical reasons to think that gains can be extended.

但是有一些理由來相信未來有更多獲利的可能

Not least the greater weighting to be given to Chinese ADRs,

其中一個原因，就是中國公司持有的美國存託憑證

the shares of US listed Chinese groups,

也就是在美國上市的中國公司持有的股票的權重將會上升

In MSCI indices, these are due at the end of May.

這是截至五月底的MSCI指數

Now changes have already added the likes of Alibaba, Bido and Weibo to the MSCI universe.

目前，MSCI已將阿里巴巴網、百度、和微博等納入他們的基準指數中

This is followed by trillions of dollars.

隨之而來的是幾兆美元的獲利

But there are further ships due.

而之後還會進行調整

After those, China's weight in the benchmark emerging markets index will rise by another 2% points to about 26%, according to Goldman Sachs.

根據高盛的分析，之後中國在新興市場指數所佔的比重會再上升2%，來到26%

It's easier to be positive on China's Internet giants admittedly than other sectors,

中國的網路產業巨頭比起其他的產業更為樂觀

and Alibaba, Bidu, and Weibo have gained between 29% and 54% since the mid-February trough.

而阿里巴巴網、微博、和百度經過二月中的低潮後又成長了29%到54%

Performances that would put all three in the top five of the HSCEI over that time.

在當時的恆生中國企業指數，三者的表現都足以進入前五名

Perhaps some investors really will use this holiday to come up with other China-related ideas.

也許，一些投資者真的會利用這個假期來好好思考關於中國的投資策略

The MSCI move and the change it forces on investors are just another reason why markets can't ignore China,

MSCI的走向以及它強迫投資者所做的轉變也說明了為何中國是市場不可忽略的一環

even if they wish they could.

縱使我們再怎麼想這麼做也不行