Name: 通貨膨脹之謎 (An inflation puzzle | Short View)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T06:01:27.000Z
Duration: 2 min 32 s

情態副詞

There's a joke on Wall Street that treasury inflation protective securities should actually

華爾街有個笑話，通膨保值證券實際上應該

程度副詞

stand for totally illiquid pieces of, well, family show.

But regardless, the TIPS market is watched closely as an important signal of expectations, of future inflation.

但無論如何，通貨膨脹保值證券市場被視為預期未來通膨的指標。

Because of the price, in which the securities trade relative to upper treasuries.

因為證券的價格與經濟狀況息息相關。

It's why so many investors and economist, including at the Federal reserve,

這也是為甚麼這麼多的投資客、經濟學家甚至聯邦儲備系統，

which is meeting to decide monetary policy today,

他們今日正要開會決定貨幣政策，

are investigating the same puzzle right now.

Why have expectations for US inflation in the next decade slipped so much?

為甚麼對美金的預期通膨率會如此大幅下滑呢？

On its face, this looks a deeply disappointing signal for policy makers.

表面上，這對政策制定人員來說肯定失望極了。

A suggestion that there are attempts to reflate the economy and to meet their target of stable annual inflation at around 2%

傳言政府試圖恢復通膨率至一年成長百分之二的目標

Even after a rebound in recent days, the markets implying that inflation in the years from 2021 to 2026 will be down at 1.6%.

儘管近年稍有回溫，市場狀況依舊暗示２０２１到２０２６年的通膨率會低至百分之一點六。

Now that suggests that financial markets don't really believe in the Fed's long-term inflation target.

現在這表示金融市場不怎麼信任聯邦的長期通膨目標。

And if that's true, that could have real and immediate consequences.

如果這是真的，這會有實質的而且立即性的後果。

What people expect inflation to be closely affects what inflation actually turns out to be because it gets baked into the price rise.

人們對通膨的期望通常就是通膨的結果，因為會反映在價格上面。

Is that the business push through or the wage increases that workers push for?

這是商業帶動的結果還是工資上漲勞動力帶動的呢？

The Fed thinks that survey-based measures of inflation expectations may be more reliable than anything thrown out by the market.

聯邦認為對通膨的調查及測量遠比市場釋出的訊息來的可靠。

As policy makers discuss when they last met in January, those surveys show expectations are still anchored higher.

如政策制定者一月的會議結論，調查顯示預期仍向上攀升。

Over late the TIPS markets implied inflation measure with the oil price.

通膨保值證券市場用油價預測通膨。

Since oil began falling in 2014, there's been a tight correlation between inflation expectations and the crude price.

自油價從2014年下跌開始，油價和通膨預期就高度相關。

And while short-term inflation is obviously affected by oil, consumer prices in the next decade shouldn't be.

短期通膨明顯受油價影響，但下個十年的消費者物價不該如此。

So the more likely solutions of the puzzle is the more sanguine one.

所以這個謎團就有可能的解就比較樂觀了。

The relatively illiquid TIPS market has been swept up in the speculative drama surrounding the oil price,

相對無流動現金的通膨保值證券市場跟著戲劇性的油價漲跌一起走紅，

and it no longer tells you very much about the long-term inflation expectations.

而它再也不會告訴你太多長期預期通膨的事。