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  • 新興市場出了什麼問題?

  • Two moons are turning the tides in emerging markets, according to Michael Power, Strategist at Investec.

    根據Investec. 策略分析師 Michael Power 的觀察,兩大巨頭將主導新興市場的情勢。

  • China's dwindling demand for the resources exported by developing nations is an old narrative.

    中國對發展中國家出口品需求日益降低,早已不是新鮮事。

  • Years of declining growth rates and rising unemployment have caused lasting damage across the emerging world.

    多年來中國生育率不斷下降,失業率持續攀升,對整個新興市場造成長久的傷害。

  • But it's the other moon, represented by the US Federal Reserve,

    但真正引起市場恐慌的,

  • which is now causing particular consternation.

    是另一個巨頭,美國聯準會。

  • The Fed is the definitive source of global financial liquidity,

    聯準會是掌控全球資金流動的大老。

  • and the surge in landing to developing countries that propelled much of their growth in the last 15 years

    過去十五年來,聯準會推動發展中國家經濟成長的政策

  • has now come to a halt.

    卻在今年度踩煞車。

  • This may give way to a vicious circle of deleveraging, according to the Bank for International Settlements,

    被人稱為「央行的央行」的國際清算銀行

  • which is known as the central bank of central banks.

    認為此現象可能會造成去槓桿化的惡性循環。

  • 新興市場若崩盤,會對西方國家有何影響?

  • The developing world accounts for more than half of global economic growth.

    全球經濟成長超過半數是來自發展中國家的貢獻,

  • Their misfortunes cannot but rebound upon the West.

    那些國家的經濟衰退勢必會為西方國家帶來反彈效應,

  • The total stock of dollar denominated credit in bonds and bank loans to emerging markets

    截至去年九月底,發行給新興市場的美元債券和銀行貸款

  • was 3.3 trillion USD at the end of September.

    為3.3兆美元。

  • That's down from 3.36 trillion USD at the end of June.

    相較於去年六月底共少了六億美元。

  • And the irresistible allure of cheap credit inspired households from Brazil to Thailand and Turkey,

    在此低息貸款的政策吸引下,巴西、泰國、土耳其等國家人民

  • to spend beyond their means.

    開始大量消費,入不敷出。

  • Injecting more liquidity into an engorged financial system with quantitative easing,

    對早已膨脹的經濟體注入流通性和採取量化寬鬆政策

  • may now be doing more harm than good in the developing world.

    可能對發展中國家弊大於利。

  • 新興市場何去何從?

  • Investors are deserting emerging market assets in droves.

    投資者接二連三從新興市場撤資。

  • Capital outflows hit an estimated 735 billion USD last year.

    去年,資本外流量預估有7350億美元,

  • That marked the first year of net outflow since 1998, according to the Institute of International Finance.

    國際金融協會稱此為新興市場自1998年以來,首次的資本淨外流。

  • Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund

    IMF總裁 Christine Lagarde 於上週直言

  • warned last week of the threat to global growth,

    新興市場潛在的危機

  • that an impending crisis in the emerging markets would pose.

    恐對全球經濟成長造成衝擊。

新興市場出了什麼問題?

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黯淡的潮水沾染了新興市場|FT Markets (Gloomy tide taints emerging markets | FT Markets)

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    Kristi Yang 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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