The market is buzzing with talk that Opec and Russia could strike a deal

市場流傳著石油輸出國家組織和俄羅斯會達成共識

to pull barrels from a heavily oversupplied oil market.

聯手讓暴跌的油價回漲的消息。

Comments this week from Russia's energy minister

俄國能源部長這周表示

that he's ready to meet with Opec countries to discuss the production card

他已準備好會見石油輸出國家組織的會員國商討產量

has triggered a large move in oil prices which have now risen more than 20% since last Wednesday.

觸發油價大動作調漲，自從上星期三已漲了20%。

How willing are Opec members to make a move?

石油輸出國家組織會員有多願意採取行動呢?

Well, Opec's kingpin and de facto leader Saudi Arabia has a very clear stance on this.

石油輸出國家組織的大老，實際領袖沙烏地阿拉伯非常清楚的表明立場。

It will cut production, but only if it's joined by other members of the cartel,

他們願意減產，但只在與其勾結的其他成員也如此的情況下，

and other big producers such as Russia.

還有其他的大輸出國也必須減產，比如說俄國。

So will Russia cut production?

所以俄國會減產嗎?

Well, the most important figure in the country's oil industry is Igor Sechin.

該國石油產業的重點人物是 Igor Sechin (伊格·伊瓦諾維奇·謝欽)。

The chief executive of Rosneft, and a close confidant of President Putin.

俄羅斯石油公司總裁，同時也是現任總統普欽的親信。

In the past, he shot down speculation of coordinated cuts time and again.

在過去，他一次又一次的遏止了減產的炒作及協調。

First, he says Russian energy companies have to answer to shareholders

一開始，他表示俄國的能源公司皆必須向股東回復

and cannot simply cut production just because they're ordered to by the Kremlin.

並且不能單單因為克林姆宮的命令就減產。

Second, he says the harsh winters in Russia make it very difficult to shut in production.

其次，他表示俄羅斯嚴峻的氣候使他們很難減產。

Now, it's worth noting that Mr. Sechin was absent from all of this week's meetings

現在，謝欽先生的所言已一文不值，因為他缺席了一整周

between big Russian energy companies and the government.

俄國能源公司和政府間的會議。

Could there be other motives at play here?

在這場處心積慮的遊戲中有可能還別有動機嗎?

Now, it could be that this week's statements in the talks between the Russian oil companies and the government

現在，這週俄國能源公司和政府間的談話聲明

are nothing more than attempting to jawbone the market and prevent another collapse in the oil prices.

全都在講如何穩定市場並防止下一波油價暴跌。

At a time when Iran is supposed to come back from sanctions and put more oil into the market

在這個伊朗應該脫離制裁並產出更多元油的時刻

and there are many refineries closed for maintenance period.

很多連油廠暫時關閉。

What's the market impact?

對市場的衝擊是甚麼呢?

The pay inflicted by lower prices that now have fallen more than 70% since the middle of 2014 is extreme.

自2014年中開始下跌70%至今的低油價是非常嚴重的。

In Russia, the Ruble has slumped to a record low

在俄羅斯，盧布已貶至新低。

and government is scrambling to plug a huge hole in its budget deficit.

政府努力填補預算赤字的大缺口。

Even Saudi Arabia is suffering, its currency is under pressure

就連沙烏地阿拉伯也舉步艱難，它的貨幣也在極大的壓力下。

and it too has a budget deficit that is blown out to a record hundred billion.

而且它也有個預算赤字，高達千億美金。

So, perhaps the pain of lower oil prices will be enough to focus minds

所以，或是油價下跌帶來的傷害已經夠任人費神

and get a deal over the table.

也夠重大的了。