Before you answer that, have a look at this map.

回答這問題前，請先看看這張地圖：

Contemporary political map shows

當今的政治地圖顯示

that we have over 200 countries in the world today.

我們的世界超過200個國家，

That's probably more than at any time in centuries.

這可能是好幾世紀以來國家數目最多的時期，

Now, many of you will object.

或許很多人會表示反對。

For you this would be a more appropriate map.

對於你們來說這可能是較適當的地圖。

You could call it TEDistan.

你可以稱它為TED國圖，

In TEDistan, there are no borders,

在TED國圖上沒有任何國界，

just connected spaces and unconnected spaces.

只有相連和沒有相連的空間。

Most of you probably reside in one of the 40 dots

大部分在場的人可能住在螢幕上

on this screen, of the many more

其中四十個亮點之一，

that represent 90 percent of the world economy.

它們代表了九成的世界經濟體。

But let's talk about the 90 percent of the world population

但我們來談談那九成

that will never leave the place in which they were born.

永遠不會離開他們出生地的人們

For them, nations, countries, boundaries, borders still matter a great deal,

對他們來說，民族、國家、邊界和國界仍相當重要，

and often violently.

甚至生死相關的重要。

Now here at TED, we're solving some of the great

在TED，我們試圖解決

riddles of science and mysteries of the universe.

一些在科學和宇宙中的重大謎團。

Well here is a fundamental problem we have not solved:

在這裡就有個我們還沒解決的根本問題:

our basic political geography.

我們最基本的政治地理。

How do we distribute ourselves around the world?

我們在世界各地是怎麼分布的?

Now this is important, because border conflicts

這相當重要，因為邊界上的爭鬥

justify so much of the world's military-industrial complex.

往往合理化當今許多軍事/武器產業體系。

Border conflicts can derail

邊界衝突會將

so much of the progress that we hope to achieve here.

我們在那裡許多努力達到的社會進展化為烏有。

So I think we need a deeper understanding

所以我想我們有必要更深層的思考

of how people, money, power,

人、財富、權力、

religion, culture, technology

宗教、文化和科技

interact to change the map of the world.

如何交互作用以改變我們的世界地圖。

And we can try to anticipate those changes,

我們可以試圖去為這些改變做準備，

and shape them in a more constructive direction.

讓它們能往更有建設性的方向發展。

So we're going to look at some maps of the past,

所以我們要看看一些過去的地圖、

the present and some maps you haven't seen

現在的地圖和你從未見過的地圖

in order to get a sense of where things are going.

來感受一下事情會怎麼樣發展。

Let's start with the world of 1945.

我們先從1945年的世界開始吧!

1945 there were just 100 countries in the world.

1945年的時候世界上只有100個國家，

After World War II, Europe was devastated,

而二戰後歐洲斷垣殘壁，

but still held large overseas colonies:

但仍持有大量的海外殖民地：

French West Africa, British East Africa, South Asia, and so forth.

法國有西非、英國有東非、南亞等等，

Then over the late '40s,

到四零年代尾聲，

'50s, '60s, '70s and '80s,

五、六、七和八零年代時，

waves of decolonization took place.

各地區開始一波波的脫離殖民，

Over 50 new countries were born.

超過五十個新國家在這時候誕生。

You can see that Africa has been fragmented.

你可以看到非洲被分的很散碎，

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South East Asian nations created.

印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉和一些東南亞國家生成。

Then came the end of the Cold War.

再來就是冷戰結束，

The end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

冷戰結束和蘇聯的瓦解。

You had the creation of new states in Eastern Europe,

在東歐我們看到一些新國家建立，

the former Yugoslav republics and the Balkans,

原先的南斯拉夫和巴爾幹地區，

and the 'stans of central Asia.

還有中亞的各個尾音是"斯坦"的國家

Today we have 200 countries in the world.

今天我們世界上有兩百個國家，

The entire planet is covered

整個地球都被

by sovereign, independent nation-states.

有主權、獨立的國家覆蓋住。

Does that mean that someone's gain has to be someone else's loss?

這是不是說一些人的得必然是另外一些人的失呢？

Let's zoom in on one of the most strategic areas of the world,

我們把焦點放在世界上最有戰略意義的地方之一吧!

Eastern Eurasia.

歐洲大陸東部。

As you can see on this map,

如你所見，

Russia is still the largest country in the world.

世界上最大的國家仍是俄羅斯，

And as you know, China is the most populous.

也如你所知，中國是人口最多的，

And they share a lengthy land border.

兩國共享一個相當長的邊界，

What you don't see on this map

而你無法在這個地圖上看到的是

is that most of Russia's 150 million people

在俄羅斯的1.5億人中大多數

are concentrated in its western provinces

集中在俄羅斯的西部區域

and areas that are close to Europe.

和鄰近歐洲的地區，

And only 30 million people are in its eastern areas.

只有3千萬人住在其東部地區。

In fact, the World Bank predicts

事實上，世界銀行預測

that Russia's population is declining

俄羅斯的人口正在

towards about 120 million people

往大約1.2億人下降。

And there is another thing that you don't see on this map.

另外一個你在這張地圖所看不到的是：

Stalin, Khrushchev and other Soviet leaders

史達林、克魯曉夫和其他前蘇聯領導人

forced Russians out to the far east

曾經強迫俄羅斯人移居遠東地區

to be in gulags, labor camps,

的古拉格、勞動集中營、

nuclear cities, whatever the case was.

核試驗基地，等等。

But as oil prices rose,

但隨著油價上漲

Russian governments have invested in infrastructure

俄羅斯政府已開始投資建設基礎建設

to unite the country, east and west.

來結合國家的東西橫向

But nothing has more perversely impacted

這項政策對於俄羅斯的人口分布

Russia's demographic distribution,

造成很大的影響，

because the people in the east, who never wanted to be there anyway,

因為那些居住在東部的人，本來就不想住那裏，

have gotten on those trains and roads

現在他們有了火車和馬路

and gone back to the west.

就開始往西部遷移，

As a result, in the Russian far east today,

那就是為什麼東部俄羅斯

which is twice the size of India,

雖然是印度的兩倍大

you have exactly six million Russians.

目前只有6萬俄羅斯人。

So let's get a sense of what is happening in this part of the world.

所以我們可以看看這部分的世界正在發生甚麼事，

We can start with Mongolia, or as some call it, Mine-golia.

我們先以蒙古開始，或者有些人稱它為 "礦"古 (英文音似Mine)

Why do they call it that?

為什麼人們這麼稱呼它?

Because in Mine-golia, Chinese firms operate

因為在蒙古，中國的公司運作

and own most of the mines -- copper, zinc, gold --

並擁有大部份的礦井 - 鋁、鋅、黃金...

and they truck the resources south and east into mainland China.

然後他們將這些礦產運往南部和東部到中國。

China isn't conquering Mongolia.

中國不是在征服蒙古，

It's buying it.

他在併購他。

Colonies were once conquered. Today countries are bought.

殖民地曾經是被軍事攻占的，而現在的國家是被併購的。

So let's apply this principle to Siberia.

所以我們來將此原則套用到西伯利亞:

Siberia most of you probably think of

你們大部分想到西伯利亞應該是會想像

as a cold, desolate, unlivable place.

一個既寒冷、荒蕪又不適合人類居住的地方。

But in fact, with global warming and rising temperatures,

但事實上，因為全球暖化的溫度上升

all of a sudden you have vast wheat fields

在當地突然有廣大的麥田

and agribusiness, and grain being produced in Siberia.

和農業，稻穀在西伯利亞被生產。

But who is it going to feed?

但這是要餵養誰呢?

Well, just on the other side of the Amo River,

就是在漠河的另外一邊，

in the Heilongjiang and Harbin provinces of China,

中國的黑龍江等省那裡

you have over 100 million people.

我們有超過1億的人口，

That's larger than the entire population of Russia.

這比整個俄羅斯的人口都要多。

Every single year, for at least a decade or more,

至少十年的時間，每一年，

[60,000] of them have been voting with their feet,

有六萬人會離開這地方，

crossing, moving north and inhabiting this desolate terrain.

他們過境，往北移，移居到這個荒涼的地帶，

They set up their own bazaars and medical clinics.

建立他們自己的市集和診所，

They've taken over the timber industry

他們接管當地的伐木產業

and been shipping the lumber east, back into China.

將木材往東運，運回中國。

Again, like Mongolia,

就像蒙古，

China isn't conquering Russia. It's just leasing it.

中國不是在征服俄羅斯，只是在租借它。

That's what I call globalization Chinese style.

這是我所稱的中國式全球化。

Now maybe this is what the map of the region

所以這是這個區域

might look like in 10 to 20 years.

大概十或二十年後會長的樣子。

But hold on. This map is 700 years old.

但等等! 這張地圖七百多歲了!

This is the map of the Yuan Dynasty,

這是元朝的地圖，

led by Kublai Khan, the grandson of Genghis Khan.

在忽必烈(成吉思汗的孫子)掌權時的樣子。

So history doesn't necessarily repeat itself,

所以歷史未必會重演，

but it does rhyme.

但會循一定的模式重複發生

This is just to give you a taste of what's happening in this part of the world.

這就是給你嘗嘗，在世界的這個角落在發生的事。

Again, globalization Chinese style.

這又是中國式的全球化，

Because globalization opens up all kinds of ways for us to

因為全球化給我們開啟很多機會

undermine and change the way we think about political geography.

去顛覆並改變我們對於政治地理的了解。

So, the history of East Asia in fact,

所以在中亞的歷史中，

people don't think about nations and borders.

人們不太以國家和邊界來思考，

They think more in terms of empires and hierarchies,

而是以朝代和統治者，

usually Chinese or Japanese.

通常中國的或日本的。

Well it's China's turn again.

好，現在我們再看看中國，

So let's look at how China is re-establishing

看看中國如何重新在

that hierarchy in the far East.

遠東地區建立那樣的統治，

It starts with the global hubs.

這一切都起源於國際經貿中心，

Remember the 40 dots on the nighttime map

記得剛剛那夜間地圖的四十個亮點嗎?

that show the hubs of the global economy?

他指出的是在我們全球經濟體裡的經貿中心。

East Asia today has more of those global hubs

東亞現在有更多這樣的經貿中心

than any other region in the world.

甚過世界上任何一個地區。

Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Shanghai,

東京、首爾、北京、上海、

Hong Kong, Singapore and Sidney.

香港、新加坡、雪梨

These are the filters and funnels of global capital.

這些都是全球資金的過濾網，

Trillions of dollars a year are being brought into the region,

上以兆計的前每年都被帶入這些地區，

so much of it being invested into China.

許多是投資到中國。

Then there is trade.

再來有貿易，

These vectors and arrows represent ever stronger

這些箭頭顯示的是中國

trade relationships that China has

與當地其它國家

with every country in the region.

愈來愈緊密的關係。

Specifically, it targets Japan

最主要它瞄準日本、

and Korea and Australia,

韓國和澳洲。

countries that are strong allies of the United States.

與美國有深厚聯盟的國家。

Australia, for example, is heavily dependent

比如說澳洲對於外銷

on exporting iron ore and natural gas to China.

鐵礦和天然氣到中國有強烈的依賴性。

For poorer countries, China reduces tariffs

對於較窮的國家，中國降低關稅，

so that Laos and Cambodia can sell their goods more cheaply

這樣寮國和柬埔寨可以用更低廉的價格外銷產品，

and become dependent on exporting to China as well.

而因此對產品出口到中國也產生依賴性。

And now many of you have been reading in the news

相信你們很多人有在看新聞，

how people are looking to China

看人們怎麼看待中國

to lead the rebound, the economic rebound, not just in Asia, but potentially for the world.

將如何去領導經濟復甦，不只在亞洲，而是全世界。

The Asian free trade zone, almost free trade zone, that's emerging

亞洲漸漸形成的自由貿易區，幾乎是自由貿易區，

now has a greater trade volume than trade across the Pacific.

現在有比太平洋彼岸還大的經貿量，

So China is becoming the anchor of the economy in the region.

所以中國已漸漸成為此地區的靠山。

Another pillar of this strategy is diplomacy.

在這個策略之下另一個重點是外交，

China has signed military agreements with many countries in the region.

中國與該地區許多國家簽訂了軍事協定，

It has become the hub of diplomatic institutions

它已成為外交機構的中心，

such as the East Asian Community.

比如說東亞的社區。

Some of these organizations don't even have

有些這樣的組織會員甚至不包括

the United States as a member.

美國。

There is a treaty of nonaggression between countries,

各國之間建立了互不干涉條約，

such that if there were a conflict between China and the United States,

假使中國與美國發生衝突，

most countries vow to just sit it out,

大部分國家會宣誓中立，

including American allies like Korea and Australia.

包括韓國和澳大利亞等美國盟友。

Another pillar of the strategy,

在這策略的另一個重點，

like Russia, is demographic.

像俄羅斯一樣，是人口。

China exports business people, nannies, students,

中國向外輸出商人、保姆、學生、

teachers to teach Chinese around the region,

和老師，在整個區域內教授中文，

to intermarry and to occupy ever greater

彼此通婚，以及在各個經濟體中

commanding heights of the economies.

佔據史無前例的主導性地位。

Already ethnic Chinese people

已經可以看到中國人

in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia

在馬來西亞、泰國和印尼等國家

are the real key factors and drivers

成為了當地經濟不容忽視的

in the economies there.

關鍵因素和推動力。

Chinese pride is resurgent in the region

因此在這些地區，中國人的驕傲

as a result.

再次復甦

Singapore, for example, used to ban Chinese language education.

比如說新加坡曾經禁止學習中文，

Now it encourages it.

現在他們鼓勵學習中文。

If you add it all up what do you get?

如果你們把這些東西全部加起來你會得到甚麼結論?

Well, if you remember before World War II,

如果你記得，二次世界大戰前，

Japan had a vision

日本曾有一個願景，

for a greater Japanese co-prosperity sphere.

想建立一個日本大東亞共榮圈。

What's emerging today is what you might call

而現今正在漸漸浮現的你可以稱為

a greater Chinese co-prosperity sphere.

中國大東亞共榮圈。

So no matter what the lines on the map tell you

所以不管世界地圖如何告訴你這是

in terms of nations and borders,

國家的邊界，

what you really have emerging in the far east

在亞洲真正的狀況是，

are national cultures,

國家的文化，

but in a much more fluid, imperial zone.

但在一種更動態，帝國的趨向。

All of this is happening without firing a shot.

這一切就自然而然的發生了，

That's most certainly not the case in the Middle East

而在中東絕對不是這樣的狀態!

where countries are still very uncomfortable

在那裏國家對於

in the borders left behind by European colonialists.

歐洲殖民者遺留下來的國界還是相當不適應。

So what can we do to think about borders differently in this part of the world?

所以我們在那個地方對於國界有甚麼樣的見解?

What lines on the map should we focus on?

地圖上我們該注意哪些線?

What I want to present to you is what I call

我想要給你看的是

state building, day by day.

國家的建立，每日進度。

Let's start with Iraq.

我們以伊拉克為起點吧!

Six years after the U.S. invasion of Iraq,

在美國入侵伊拉克之後的第六年，

the country still exists more on a map than it does in reality.

這個國家在地圖上的存在，比現實還真實。

Oil used to be one of the forces holding Iraq together;

石油曾經是維繫伊拉克的要素之一，

now it is the most significant cause of the country's disintegration.

現在卻是此國家瓦解的重要原因。

The reason is Kurdistan.

這原因是因為庫德斯坦；

The Kurds for 3,000 years

庫德族三千年以來

have been waging a struggle for independence,

就在爭取獨立，

and now is their chance to finally have it.

而現在是他們獨立的契機。

These are pipeline routes, which emerge from Kurdistan,

這些是從庫德斯坦出來的管線，

which is an oil-rich region.

它們的區域富含石油。

And today, if you go to Kurdistan,

而當今，如果你進入庫德斯坦，

you'll see that Kurdish Peshmerga guerillas

你會看到庫德族的Peshmerga游擊隊

are squaring off against the Sunni Iraqi army.

正在跟伊拉克的遜尼軍隊作戰。

But what are they guarding?

但他們在守護甚麼?

Is it really a border on the map?

真的是地圖上的邊界嗎?

No. It's the pipelines.

不，是那些管線。

If the Kurds can control their pipelines, they can set the terms

如果庫德人可以控制管線，他們就可以控制

of their own statehood.

談他們國家建立的條件。

Now should we be upset about this, about the potential disintegration of Iraq?

我們應該為伊拉克可能的瓦解擔憂嗎?

I don't believe we should.

我並不認為。

Iraq will still be the second largest oil producer in the world,

伊拉克仍會是世界上第二大產油國，

behind Saudi Arabia.

第一是沙烏地阿拉伯，

And we'll have a chance to solve a 3,000 year old dispute.

而我們有機會解決一個維持三千年的爭議。

Now remember Kurdistan is landlocked.

注意，庫德斯坦四周皆是陸地，

It has no choice but to behave.

它不得不守規矩

In order to profit from its oil

為了能從石油獲益，

it has to export it through Turkey or Syria,

它需將石油輸出到其它國家，如土耳其、敘利亞

and other countries, and Iraq itself.

還有伊拉克本身，

And therefore it has to have amicable relations with them.

所以它與這些國家的關係必須維持好。

Now lets look at a perennial conflict in the region.

現在我們來看看此區另一個連年不斷的衝突，

That is, of course, in Palestine.

這當然是指巴勒斯坦:

Palestine is something of a cartographic anomaly

從地圖上看是一個畸形兒，

because it's two parts Palestinian, one part Israel.

因為它由兩部分巴勒斯坦和一部分以色列組成。