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  • About 10 years ago, I took on the task to teach global development

    大約10年前,我開始

  • to Swedish undergraduate students.

    給瑞典大學生講授全球發展

  • That was after having spent about 20 years

    之前的20年我一直在非洲研究飢餓問題

  • together with African institutions studying hunger in Africa,

    所以大家以為我對世界有些了解

  • so I was sort of expected to know a little about the world.

    在我們的Karolinska醫學院

  • And I started in our medical university, Karolinska Institute,

    我開設了一門本科生課程“全球健康”

  • an undergraduate course called Global Health.

    剛開課的時候我還有些緊張

  • But when you get that opportunity, you get a little nervous.

    因為來聽課的都是瑞典大學的優等生

  • I thought, these students coming to us

    他們或許早已了解我準備教的內容

  • actually have the highest grade you can get in Swedish college systems --

    於是在第一堂課裡,我作了一個小測試

  • so I thought, maybe they know everything I'm going to teach them about.

    其中有一道題讓我受益匪淺

  • So I did a pre-test when they came.

    下列5對國家中,哪一個的兒童死亡率高於另一個?

  • And one of the questions from which I learned a lot was this one:

    我所選擇的配對國家都是

  • "Which country has the highest child mortality of these five pairs?"

    一個的兒童死亡率是另一個的兩倍

  • I put them together, so that in each pair of country,

    數據本身的不確定性可以忽略不計

  • one has twice the child mortality of the other.

    今天我不會拿這來考大家

  • And this means that it's much bigger a difference

    土耳其,波蘭,俄羅斯,巴基斯坦和南非

  • than the uncertainty of the data.

    這是瑞典學生的測驗結果

  • I won't put you at a test here, but it's Turkey,

    讓我高興的是

  • which is highest there, Poland, Russia, Pakistan and South Africa.

    5道題平均答對的只有1.8題

  • And these were the results of the Swedish students.

    我這個教授還有這門課

  • I did it so I got the confidence interval, which is pretty narrow, and I got happy,

    因此都有了存在的必要

  • of course: a 1.8 right answer out of five possible.

    但後來有天深夜,當我寫總結報告的時候

  • That means that there was a place for a professor of international health

    我突然有了新的發現

  • and for my course.

    瑞典大學的優等生們對世界的了解

  • (Laughter)

    竟然還不如黑猩猩

  • But one late night, when I was compiling the report,

    (笑聲)

  • I really realized my discovery.

    因為黑猩猩們至少能蒙對一半

  • I have shown that Swedish top students

    在兩個選項旁邊各放一根香蕉,就有一半的機率答對。

  • know statistically significantly less about the world than the chimpanzees.

    這些優等生們卻做不到。這不是由於知識缺乏

  • (Laughter)

    而是他們先入為主的錯誤理念

  • Because the chimpanzee would score half right

    我還把這個測試拿去給卡羅林斯卡學院的教授們做

  • if I gave them two bananas with Sri Lanka and Turkey.

    (笑聲)

  • They would be right half of the cases. But the students are not there.

    他們每年負責頒發諾貝爾醫學獎

  • The problem for me was not ignorance; it was preconceived ideas.

    結果教授們和黑猩猩半斤八兩

  • I did also an unethical study

    (笑聲)

  • of the professors of the Karolinska Institute,

    我意識到很有必要交流一下這個問題

  • that hands out the Nobel Prize in Medicine,

    因為多數人並不知道

  • and they are on par with the chimpanzee there.

    世界各國的兒童健康的改善

  • (Laughter)

    我們作了一個軟件,每一個小球代表一個國家

  • This is where I realized that there was really a need to communicate,

    這個是中國,這個是印度

  • because the data of what's happening in the world

    小球的尺寸代表該國的人口,X軸是生育率

  • and the child health of every country is very well aware.

    我曾問過學生們

  • We did this software which displays it like this:

    如果讓你們來審視這個世界

  • every bubble here is a country.

    你們的真實想法是什麼

  • This country over here is China.

    其實這些教科書上都是丁丁歷險記(帶有殖民主義思想的漫畫)的人物

  • This is India.

    (笑聲)

  • The size of the bubble is the population,

    學生們回答 世界是由“我們和他們”組成的

  • and on this axis here, I put fertility rate.

    “我們”指西方世界 “他們”指第三世界

  • Because my students, what they said

    我又問“什麼是西方世界?”

  • when they looked upon the world, and I asked them,

    “西方世界壽命長且家庭小;第三世界壽命短而家庭大。”

  • "What do you really think about the world?"

    那麼一起來看。X軸是生育率,每個婦女的育兒數

  • Well, I first discovered that the textbook was Tintin, mainly.

    從每人1,2,3,4胎,到8胎

  • (Laughter)

    我們有1962年之後的各國家庭大小的可靠數據

  • And they said, "The world is still 'we' and 'them.'

    數據誤差相當小。 Y軸是平均壽命

  • And 'we' is Western world and 'them' is Third World."

    從30歲到70歲不等

  • "And what do you mean with Western world?" I said.

    1962年的時候的確有一群國家在上面

  • "Well, that's long life and small family,

    這些是發達國家,他們家庭小,壽命長

  • and Third World is short life and large family."

    而這些則是發展中國家

  • So this is what I could display here.

    他們家庭大,壽命也相對短些

  • I put fertility rate here: number of children per woman:

    從1962年到今天 世界有什麼變化嗎?

  • one, two, three, four, up to about eight children per woman.

    學生們正確嗎?國家還是分為2類嗎?

  • We have very good data since 1962 -- 1960 about --

    或者發展中國家的家庭變小 (這些小球)移動到了左邊?

  • on the size of families in all countries.

    或者發展中國家人們的壽命變長 (這些小球)移動到了上面?

  • The error margin is narrow.

    我們一起看看,這些數據都來自於聯合國

  • Here, I put life expectancy at birth,

    大家看到沒有?

  • from 30 years in some countries up to about 70 years.

    這個是中國,他們在往上移動,健康狀況不斷改善

  • And 1962, there was really a group of countries here

    這些綠色的拉丁美洲國家 正朝向小家庭的方向移動

  • that was industrialized countries,

    這些黃色的小球是阿拉伯國家

  • and they had small families and long lives.

    壽命在變長但家庭規模不變

  • And these were the developing countries:

    非洲國家是下面的綠球,他們一直在下面

  • they had large families and they had relatively short lives.

    這個是印度,印度尼西亞的移動速度非常快

  • Now, what has happened since 1962? We want to see the change.

    (笑聲)

  • Are the students right? Is it still two types of countries?

    80年代的時候,孟加拉國仍然和非洲國家在一起

  • Or have these developing countries got smaller families and they live here?

    但是80年代的奇蹟發生在孟加拉國

  • Or have they got longer lives and live up there?

    媽媽們開始宣傳和普及計劃生育

  • Let's see. We stopped the world then.

    他們向左上角移動。90年代恐怖的艾滋病流行

  • This is all U.N. statistics that have been available.

    導致非洲國家的平均壽命縮短

  • Here we go. Can you see there?

    而其他國家都向左上角移動

  • It's China there, moving against better health there, improving there.

    大家都有了長壽命和小家庭,而世界也煥然一新了

  • All the green Latin American countries are moving towards smaller families.

    (掌聲)

  • Your yellow ones here are the Arabic countries,

    現在我們對比一下美國和越南

  • and they get longer life, but not larger families.

    1964年的美國家庭小壽命長

  • The Africans are the green here. They still remain here.

    越南的家庭大而壽命短。這是後來的變化

  • This is India; Indonesia is moving on pretty fast.

    越戰時期的數據顯示,儘管戰爭造成傷亡

  • (Laughter)

    越南人的平均壽命仍有提高

  • In the '80s here, you have Bangladesh still among the African countries.

    70年代末期,越南的計劃生育減小了家庭規模

  • But now, Bangladesh -- it's a miracle that happens in the '80s:

    美國人的平均壽命也在延長

  • the imams start to promote family planning.

    而家庭規模不變

  • They move up into that corner.

    到了90年代,越南由計劃經濟轉為市場經濟

  • And in the '90s, we have the terrible HIV epidemic

    其經濟發展的速度超過了社會的發展

  • that takes down the life expectancy of the African countries

    今天(2003)越南人的平均壽命和家庭規模

  • and all the rest of them move up into the corner,

    已經和越戰結束時(1974)的美國一樣

  • where we have long lives and small family, and we have a completely new world.

    如果沒有看到這些數據的話

  • (Applause)

    我們會低估了亞洲的巨大變化

  • (Applause ends)

    這些超前於經濟發展的社會變革

  • Let me make a comparison directly

    下面我們換個視角

  • between the United States of America and Vietnam.

    X軸顯示了全世界的收入分佈

  • 1964.

    每天收入1美元,10美元和100美元

  • America had small families and long life;

    富與窮之間的鴻溝幾乎消失了,簡直是個奇蹟

  • Vietnam had large families and short lives.

    這裡還有一個很小的峰,但總體上是均數分佈的

  • And this is what happens:

    我們看看收入的分配情況

  • the data during the war indicate that even with all the death,

    這代表全世界人民每年的全部收入

  • there was an improvement of life expectancy.

    最富有的20%那部分人得到了全部收入的74%

  • By the end of the year, the family planning started in Vietnam;

    最貧窮的20%那部分人只得到2%

  • they went for smaller families.

    可見發展中國家的理念極其的不確切

  • And the United States up there is getting for longer life,

    我們總以為最富的人應該給最窮的人提供援助

  • keeping family size.

    其實中間這部分才是世界人口的主體,而他們僅得到全部收入的24%

  • And in the '80s now, they give up Communist planning

    這是個老問題了,中間這些人是誰?

  • and they go for market economy,

    他們在哪些國家?先看非洲

  • and it moves faster even than social life.

    非洲佔世界人口的十分之一,多數是窮人

  • And today, we have in Vietnam

    這個代表富裕的經合組織成員國,聯合國俱樂部的會員

  • the same life expectancy and the same family size

    他們在這邊,很小一部分與非洲重疊

  • here in Vietnam, 2003,

    這是拉丁美洲,他們可以代表全世界

  • as in United States, 1974, by the end of the war.

    從最貧窮到最富有的人都在那裡

  • If we don't look in the data,

    再往上是東歐,東亞還有南亞

  • I think we all underestimate the tremendous change in Asia,

    過去是什麼樣子的呢?

  • which was in social change before we saw the economical change.

    如果我們回到1970年,這裡有一個明顯的峰

  • Let's move over to another way here in which we could display

    這些絕對貧困的人大多數在亞洲

  • the distribution in the world of the income.

    那時世界的問題就在於亞洲的貧窮

  • This is the world distribution of income of people.

    後來隨著人口的增長

  • One dollar, 10 dollars or 100 dollars per day.

    數以億計的亞洲人擺脫了貧困

  • There's no gap between rich and poor any longer. This is a myth.

    另外一些人卻陷入貧窮,這就是今天的世界

  • There's a little hump here.

    而這是世界銀行對未來最樂觀的預測

  • But there are people all the way.

    世界再也不是貧富懸殊的,大多數人擁有中等的收入

  • And if we look where the income ends up,

    當然這是指數冪分佈的圖

  • this is 100 percent the world's annual income.

    因為經濟的增長是用百分比來衡量的

  • And the richest 20 percent,

    我們用百分比的變化來評估經濟增長

  • they take out of that about 74 percent.

    下面把X軸改為人均國內生產總值

  • And the poorest 20 percent, they take about two percent.

    個人的數據轉為各大洲的數據

  • And this shows that the concept of developing countries

    球的大小代表人口的多少

  • is extremely doubtful.

    這個是經合組織國家,這是撒哈拉以南非洲

  • We think about aid,

    我們把阿拉伯國家

  • like these people here giving aid to these people here.

    從非洲和亞洲單獨分出來

  • But in the middle, we have most of the world population,

    然後把X軸延伸一下,再加上一個新的維度

  • and they have now 24 percent of the income.

    一個有社會價值的參數:兒童生存率

  • We heard it in other forms. And who are these?

    X軸代表經濟,Y軸顯示兒童存活的比率

  • Where are the different countries? I can show you Africa.

    一些國家的99.7%的小孩可以活到5歲以上

  • This is Africa.

    另一些國家只有70%。很明顯可以看到

  • 10% the world population, most in poverty.

    經合組織成員國和拉丁美洲,東歐,東亞

  • This is OECD.

    阿拉伯國家,南亞和非洲撒哈拉以南地區

  • The rich country. The country club of the U.N.

    兒童生存率和經濟之間聯繫非常緊密

  • And they are over here on this side. Quite an overlap between Africa and OECD.

    下面把撒哈拉以南非洲地區分解成各個國家

  • And this is Latin America.

    分佈靠上邊的國家擁有更高的健康水平

  • It has everything on this Earth, from the poorest to the richest

    撒哈拉以南的非洲各國是如此分佈的,球的尺寸代表該國人口

  • in Latin America.

    塞拉里昂在下邊,毛里求斯在上邊

  • And on top of that, we can put East Europe,

    毛里求斯是第一個消除了貿易壁壘的國家

  • we can put East Asia, and we put South Asia.

    他們的蔗糖和紡織品的貿易協定與歐洲和北美一樣

  • And how did it look like if we go back in time,

    但是非洲內部的差異非常巨大。加納在中部

  • to about 1970?

    塞拉里昂需要人道主義援助

  • Then there was more of a hump.

    烏干達則需要發展援助,在加納可以進行投資了

  • And we have most who lived in absolute poverty were Asians.

    毛里求斯則可以去度假。非洲內部的差異之大確實很驚人

  • The problem in the world was the poverty in Asia.

    而我們卻總以為非洲國家都差不多

  • And if I now let the world move forward,

    下面分解南亞各國,印度是中間的藍色大球

  • you will see that while population increases,

    而斯里蘭卡和阿富汗有著巨大差異

  • there are hundreds of millions in Asia getting out of poverty

    把阿拉伯世界分解來看,儘管是相同的氣候,相同的文化

  • and some others getting into poverty,

    相同的宗教,卻有巨大的差異

  • and this is the pattern we have today.

    也門在打內戰,鄰國阿聯酋卻躺在錢堆裡

  • And the best projection from the World Bank

    而且(阿聯酋的)兒童健康數據包含了所有的外籍勞工

  • is that this will happen,

    大家總說數據不准確數據,其實比我們想像的好很多

  • and we will not have a divided world.

    數據是有誤差

  • We'll have most people in the middle.

    但柬埔寨和新加坡的差距肯定遠大於數據的誤差

  • Of course it's a logarithmic scale here,

    再看東歐

  • but our concept of economy is growth with percent.

    在蘇聯經濟模式下發展了多年,但在過去10年

  • We look upon it as a possibility of percentile increase.

    卻經歷了巨大的變化

  • If I change this, and take GDP per capita instead of family income,

    當今的拉丁美洲,古巴再也不是唯一的健康國家了

  • and I turn these individual data

    幾年後,智利的兒童死亡率將低於古巴

  • into regional data of gross domestic product,

    這些是經合組織成員國