But how fast can the powerful OPEC producer ramp up production and exports?

可是這個OPEC的石油大國能多快提升他們的產量與出口量呢？

Joining me to discuss this is Richard Mallinson, at Consultancy, Energy Aspect.

和我討論此議題的是來自 Energy Aspect 的顧問 Richard Mallinson。

Richard, Iranian officials have in recent day, in recent months talked about ramping up production,

Richard ，伊朗官方近期表示會提高石油產量，

immediately after lifting the sanctions by five hundred thousand barrels a day.

解禁初期每天將增加五十萬桶，

How realistic is this?

這可行性高嗎？

Well, clearly, the Iranian governments got some pretty ambitious plans.

很明顯的，伊朗政府想要施展雄心抱負。

But I think, they're gonna have a little more of a gradual recovery.

但我認為他們會經歷一段漸進式的復甦，

They're depending on two things, one is to take existing fields and ramp up the amount of those producing,

他們的計畫取決於兩件事情，一是先鞏固現存油田，增加其產量，

and the second is to bring several new fields on line.

再來則是開發新的油田。

But with the existing fields, they face years without western technology, western investment,

但面對這些現存的油田，他們缺乏西方的技術和投資，

and I think that the maintenance state of those fields may limit how much they can bring back overnight.

光是維護這些油田就沒辦法令伊朗立即翻身。

With the new fields, we've seen several years of delays,

而對於新油田，伊朗尚未有新的進展，

and I think they're not necessarily all gonna be ready yet.

我認為他們還沒有完全準備好。

What are your estimates, for the increase in production and also exports?

你預估他們石油產量和出口量會增加多少？

So I think over the next couple of months,

我認為在未來幾個月內，

we'll see Iranian production going up by say 250 to 400 thousand barrels a day,

伊朗的日生產量可提升到二十五萬至四十萬桶，

depending on how many of those new fields come on line.

看有多少新油田被開發。

And I think almost all of that is going to go into the export market

而且我認爲這些增加的產量都將流入國外市場，

because of present, the domestic market is well-supplied,

因為現在伊朗國內市場油量是充足的。

um... but it's exports say they really want to target, they really want to increase.

但如果我們假設，伊朗很想將目標設定在增加出口量，

It's about then, can they find the buyers, can they

那麼這就取決於他們能不能找到買家、能不能

as they get back into market, Europe, other parts of Asia,

回到歐亞等市場，

how easy is it to market their crude and to displace other exporters.

也要看他們是否能順利銷售原油和取代其他出口商。

We can see from this chart here that

從圖表中我們可以觀察到，

production and exports have really taken a hit under sanctions.

在受管制的情況下，伊朗的產量和出口量來到最高點，

But any increase from here on in ? You know what affect will that have on price?

但從那之後有任何增長嗎？ 你知道這會對油價產生什麼影響嗎？

Well, as we can see before the latest round of sanctions,

正如同我們在最近一波管制前觀察到的，

the ones that are being lifted or implemented was producing about 3.6 million barrels a day

在實行管制之下伊朗每日可產出三百六十萬桶，

and exports were close to 2 million barrels a day.

而出口量曾接近每日兩百萬桶，

That fell off a long way, and Iran wants to bring all of that back as quickly as it can.

在那之後數量開始下跌，而伊朗便希望可以盡快回到原有的水準。

The oil market was already oversupply, it has been for quite long time

油市供給過剩已經有很長一段時間了

and that's what's really driven prices lower.

這就是導致油價一直下跌的原因。

Um... the quicker and the more that Iran can bring back into the market,

伊朗越早回到市場，讓越多油流入市場，

the more pressure it would put on prices,

就會讓油價更加雪上加霜。

and certainly the moment of the focus or the concern in the oil market is that

的確，現在油市備受關注和擔憂的，是

there gonna be a large return, very rapidly.

伊朗大量、快速的回流。

But I think if, as we get later in the year, we'll get a better picture of the Iranian recovery,

但我認爲，漸到年後，我們會更清楚伊朗復甦的走勢，

it's only going to be one of several moving parts

這只是其中一個變動，

we're also going to be looking at the decline in the US production

我們也會觀察到美國產量的下降、

the extent to which the rest of non-OPEC's supplies going down

和其他非OPEC國石油供給下跌的程度，

and of course what other OPEC members are able to do.

當然還有其他OPEC成員的對應之策。

And just on that point, oil prices are around 30 dollars a barrel.

說到這個，油價現在大約每桶30美元

So what happens when, you know,

所以，情況會變得如何，

you throw Saudi Arabia and other big Gulf producers into the mix

如果把沙烏地阿拉伯和波斯灣地區的產油國考慮進來，

because they have shown no signs of relenting.

因為他們沒有任何讓步的跡象，

Um... you know, how does that competition play out now?

這樣的話，競爭的情況會呈什麼狀態？

Well, I think, from my point of view

我個人認為，

this 30 dollar price is not sustainable for the global market in the long-run.

30美元這種價格對於全球市場的長期發展並不是非常有利，

But, all of the OPEC producers are generally putting as much oil as they can into the market that,

但，所有OPEC的產油國通常都會盡可能把可供給的油都流入市場

in part, about just generating whatever revenues they can to meet their budget,

一部分是為了讓營收平衡預算，

but it's also about market share.

一部分則是為了享有市佔率。

We've seen Saudi Arabia and Iraq increase their production significantly last year,

我們看到去年沙烏地阿拉伯和伊拉克的產量大幅上升，

and they gonna want to sustain those levels,

今年他們也會想要維持水準，

even if they can't necessarily increase production further.

即使他們不一定能增加多少產量。

But they've also been putting oil into markets, particularly in Europe,

但他們也有把石油流入市場，以歐洲居多，

where they anticipate Iran is going to want to return.

因為他們預期歐洲會是伊朗回鍋之後的首要目標，

So, they're trying to get in there ahead of time

因此他們想要搶先伊朗一步，

and prevent or make it more difficult for Iran to win those buyers back.

來預防、或是讓伊朗更難找到買主。

And I think what we're likely to see is Iran, particularly but also Iraq

我認為特別是伊朗，或是伊拉克，

willing to offer discounts, to offer favorable terms

會願意提供優惠或開出有利的條件，

to try lure by as a way from Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states,

來搶走沙烏地阿拉伯和其他灣區產油國的生意，

and none of that is gonna make life within the OPEC anymore comfortable or anymore diplomatic.

而這些措施並不會對OPEC成員之間的國際情勢有任何助益。

Um... you know, speaking of some of the Iranian officials, they've said that they are not very keen to lose out on price.

說到伊朗官方，他們表示並不想在價格上居弱。

So what are the tactics could they deploy?

那他們可以採用什麼應對方針呢？

Is it sort of oil-for-goods or other sorts of tactics, that means it may try and get ahead that way?

是利用像石油期貨或諸如此類的方式來超前其他國嗎？

Well, this is a dilemma for Iran. On the one hand, it knows that to lure by it's back,

這對伊朗來說是個兩難，一方面，伊朗知道要搶回生意，

it needs to offer something attractive of favorable terms.

他們必需開出有利條件以吸引買主，

From the second, on the other hand, especially at current prices, if it offers cash discounts, that's gonna,

另一方面，特別是以現在的油價來說，如果伊朗提供現金折抵，此舉將會

eat into the revenue it desperately needs for it's budget.

使他們的營收虧損，進而影響到他們的預算。

So, I think we will see them looking at what creative ways can they build buying relationships,

我認為，我們將來可以觀察到伊朗如何以新穎的方式來建立石油網絡，

so exchanges favorable terms for instance, longer payment terms said the price is there

藉以交換有利條件，例如延長償還期限，雖然應付價格不變，

but refiners have a little bit longer before they need to meet that bill

但煉油者可以稍後再把錢付清，

which can really help them with cash flow.

如此一來產生的現金流便能對該國有所助益。

But all of it, I think it's also going to be complicated, by the US sanctions that remain in place,

但總體來說，情況將會變得複雜，因為美國尚未解除對伊朗的經濟制裁，

in particular, the ones that will make it difficult for Iran to sell and transact in dollars

尤其是那些讓伊朗難以作買賣和現金交易的制裁

because no US bank can be any part of the transaction.

因為美國沒有一家銀行可以和伊朗作交易。

Thank you, Richard.

謝謝你的分析，Richard。