following implementation of the nuclear accord.

伴隨著與伊朗的核協議。

Has the lifting of the sanctions brought the Islamic Republic in from the cold as a regional power in the middle east?

國際制裁的解除是否使處於低點的伊朗共和國躍身成為成為中東的強權？

David Gardner, the FT's international affairs editor, joins me now.

經濟時報外交關係委員會編輯 David Gardner 現在加入我們。

David, what does implementation day really mean for Iran?

David ，履行合約的那天對伊朗來說究竟代表甚麼呢？

Is it completely different relationship that Iran can now have with the US?

是代表伊朗與美國將有著截然不同的關係嗎？

It is a different relationship, it is, one shouldn't underestimate it, a golden moment for the Islamic Republic,

是將會有截然不同的關係，我們不該低估伊斯蘭共和國的這一個關鍵時刻。

which has been regarded as a pariah state, a rogue state that was 37 years but over since 1979.

伊斯蘭共和國自1979年就被視為流放的國家，

But above all, in the last as you know, dozen or so years, have these truly enveloping sanctions which have strangled its economy.

但首先，你知道的，這十餘年來這些經濟制裁緊緊束縛著他們。

Um... I think definitely, it is being seen as an indispensable partner and player

恩我認為在一個已經逐漸瓦解並且有著諸多問題的地區，

in a region which is in meltdown and has so many problems.

他已被視為一位不可或缺的夥伴和參與者

I mean Iran is needed at the table on Syria, Iran cooperates with the US against ISIS and Iraq

我的意思是，美國在處理敘利亞議題的時候需要伊朗，伊朗與美國合作對抗 ISIS 和伊拉克，

and in so many other, conflictual situations from Lebanon to Yemen.

還有其他諸如黎巴嫩與葉門的衝突等等都需要伊朗。

Well, it's very interesting that at a time when the Iranians and the Americans seem to be working much better together.

這其實是一件挺有趣的現象，竟然有一天伊朗人與美國人竟然能合作得還不錯。

Iran's relations with its neighbors in the Arabia world have deteriorated significantly.

伊朗與鄰近阿拉伯世界的關係正在逐漸惡化。

Do you think that Iran can be a stable force in the region?

你覺得伊朗能夠成為一個阿拉伯地區中穩定的勢力嗎?

It has a lot to do to become that.

他們還有很多事要做

To be regarded as a legitimate regional power,

才能被視為一合法的區域勢力。

it needs clearly to be seen by particularly the Sunni Arab power led by Saudi Arabia to pull in it's horns.

他特別需要被沙烏地阿拉伯領導的遜尼派勢力視為同類。

Um... to stop being seen as an aggressive actor taking advantage of the disintegration

要停止被視為佔瀕臨瓦解的弱勢勢力便宜的激進分子

because that is the worth of countries such as Iraq and Syria.

因為伊拉克和敘利亞正是如此。

For whatever reasons that they started to disintegrate,

不管他們當初開始瓦解的理由何在，

Iran has tended to work outside the state,

伊朗皆試著不受美國控制，

outside the institutions of these countries via agents such as militia to advance their interest.

不受這些國家組成的組織控制，並藉著如 Melisha 這樣的仲介去掀起他們的興趣。

But are you expecting the relationship between Iran and the Sunnie powers of the region

但是你是否預期簽訂核協議後伊朗和遜尼派勢力的關係

to deteriorate even further after implementation day?

會持續瓦解?

There clearly is a feeling on the part of the Saudi is that all this comes at their expense.

沙烏地阿拉伯很明顯覺得不論結果如何他們都是受損的一方。

Um... that has produced, in my judgement, a reactive policy.

嗯．．．依我的判斷，會因此產生應對性的政策。

Um... but at some point, this may settle if the principal actors in places such as Saudi Arabia and Iran

但是這還是有機會解決的，如果像沙烏地阿拉伯和伊朗這樣的主要參與國家．．．

because clearly there needs to be some kind of dead-on between these two powers.

因為很顯然的，這兩股勢力之間需要一個清楚的界限。

See it as in their interest to cooperate against common enemies such as ISIS.

可以把這看成他們互利合作對抗如 ISIS 這樣共同的敵人。

We clearly haven't reached that point, far from it as you saw earlier this month

很明顯的他們還沒有走到這一步，就這個月初的情勢看來還沒那麼快。

with the execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, Saudi Shia cleric.

這個月初沙烏地阿拉伯處死他們的什葉教派領袖謝赫尼姆爾。

Yet, at the same time in parallel you have processes,

同時示威抗議又進行著，

the effort by the Saudis to put together some sort of viable Syrian opposition.

沙烏地正努力組織可以有效抵抗敘利亞的反對派的組織。

Let me ask you about oil.

請問你石油的問題。

Prices have gone down to 28 even below 28 today.

今天價格已經降到了28塊，甚至低於28塊。

What do you think of the longer-term impact of Iran's return to the market as it's going to be?

你覺得伊朗回歸市場的長期影響會是甚麼?

I think there are two aspects to this.

我覺得這有兩個面向。

Clearly, first of all, there is a huge unmet investment need in Iran

很明顯的，首先伊朗有個巨大的投資缺口，

probably of the order of about a trillion dollars in the coming five years.

差不多在未來的五年會有個一兆美金的缺口。

A great deal of that is in upgrading it's oil industry.

會有這麼大的缺口很大一部份是因為他們要提升石油產業。

So the idea that they can suddenly turn on a tap is not the case.

所以他們可以馬上找到新的油源的這個想法是不可能實現的。

So, I mean there is going to be an increase but I don't think it's going to be immediate.

所以，我的意思是油價會再上升，可是不那麼快。

But clearly overtime, it will have a softening effect on the oil price.

但是很明顯的，隨著時間過去，這對油價的影響會漸緩。

Iran is at the same time uh...

在同時伊朗．．．

it is sitting on about 20% of the world's proven gas reserves,

伊朗坐擁全球百分之二十的天然氣存量，

a terribly important factor in a period when climate change is at the forefront of the international agenda.

在這個氣候異常已為全球矚目最前線的問題時，這是個非常重要的關鍵因子。

Um... that is something I think which people would increasingly focus on and want to get into.

嗯，這才是人們會持續關注並且想要深入了解的議題。

David, thanks very much. We've run out of time.

David ，非常感謝你。我們今天地的時間就到這了。