with really remarkable speed.

正以驚人的速度在改變。

If you look at the chart at the top here,

如果你看這張圖表的上方，

you'll see that in 2025,

會看到在2025年

these Goldman Sachs projections

根據高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的預測，

suggest that the Chinese economy

中國的經濟規模

will be almost the same size as the American economy.

將會和美國幾乎相當 。

And if you look at the chart

再看看這張圖表，

for 2050,

在2050年

it's projected that the Chinese economy

中國的經濟規模

will be twice the size of the American economy,

將會是美國的兩倍大，

and the Indian economy will be almost the same size

而印度的經濟規模

as the American economy.

將會和美國不相上下。

And we should bear in mind here

我們必須記住的是，

that these projections were drawn up

這些預測

before the Western financial crisis.

都是在西方金融危機之前制定的。

A couple of weeks ago,

大約二週前，

I was looking at the latest projection

我在看法國巴黎銀行

by BNP Paribas

最新的預測，

for when China

他們預測在什麽時候

will have a larger economy

中國的經濟規模

than the United States.

會超過美國。

Goldman Sachs projected 2027.

高盛預測會在2027年。

The post-crisis projection

而金融危機後的新預測

is 2020.

是2020年。

That's just a decade away.

而這只不過十年。

China is going to change the world

中國將會在兩個基本面上

in two fundamental respects.

改變世界。

First of all,

首先，

it's a huge developing country

中國是個巨大的發展中國家

with a population of 1.3 billion people,

擁有13億人口，

which has been growing for over 30 years

在過去的30年中

at around 10 percent a year.

以每年近10%的速度成長。

And within a decade,

在十年內

it will have the largest economy in the world.

將會成爲世界最大的經濟體。

Never before in the modern era

在現代史上，

has the largest economy in the world

過去一向都是已開發國家

been that of a developing country,

而從來沒有任何一個發展中國家

rather than a developed country.

成爲世界最大的經濟體。

Secondly,

其次，

for the first time in the modern era,

在現代史上首次

the dominant country in the world --

主宰世界的國家

which I think is what China will become --

-- 我個人認為將會是中國 --

will be not from the West

不會是西方的國家，

and from very, very different civilizational roots.

而是來自一個非常不一樣的文明根柢。

Now, I know it's a widespread assumption in the West

我知道西方國家普遍有這樣的假設:

that as countries modernize,

一個國家的現代化

they also westernize.

也就意味著西方化。

This is an illusion.

這是個不切實際的說法。

It's an assumption that modernity

這樣的假設是簡單的將現代化看做

is a product simply of competition, markets and technology.

是由競爭、市場和科技所構成的產物。

It is not. It is also shaped equally

而事實並非如此，

by history and culture.

現代化也均等的受到歷史和文化的影響。

China is not like the West,

中國和西方國家不同，

and it will not become like the West.

而且中國也不會變成像西方國家一樣，

It will remain in very fundamental respects

中國會持續的保留

very different.

他和西方的根本差異。

Now the big question here is obviously,

現在最大的問題，很明顯的

how do we make sense of China?

就是我們該怎樣來解讀中國？

How do we try to understand what China is?

我們該如何試著去了解，中國到底是怎樣的一個國家？

And the problem we have in the West at the moment, by and large,

大體上西方現在的問題，

is that the conventional approach

在於我們的傳統方法是

is that we understand it really in Western terms,

用西方的術語

using Western ideas.

和思想來了解中國。

We can't.

這是行不通的。

Now I want to offer you

現在我想提供

three building blocks

三個基本理由，

for trying to understand what China is like,

來試著了解中國，

just as a beginning.

這只是一個開始。

The first is this:

首先，

that China is not really a nation-state.

中國不能真正的稱為一個 "國家"。

Okay, it's called itself a nation-state

好吧，雖然在近一百年來

for the last hundred years,

中國自稱是一個 "國家"，

but everyone who knows anything about China

但是任何熟悉中國的人都知道，

knows it's a lot older than this.

中國的歷史遠超過一百年。

This was what China looked like with the victory of the Qin Dynasty

這是西元前221年中國的地圖，

in 221 B.C. at the end of the warring-state period --

秦朝統一天下，結束戰國時期的紛爭，

the birth of modern China.

為現代中國的萌芽。

And you can see it against the boundaries of modern China.

你們可以看到現代中國的邊界線。

Or immediately afterward, the Han Dynasty,

或是秦代之後的漢代，這一張是漢代的地圖，

still 2,000 years ago.

它還是兩千年前的地圖。

And you can see already it occupies

你們可以看到當時中國已經佔領了

most of what we now know as Eastern China,

現在中國東部的大部分。

which is where the vast majority of Chinese lived then

這個區域從過去到現在一直是

and live now.

絕大多數的中國人居住的地方。

Now what is extraordinary about this

是什麼讓它顯得奇特呢?

is, what gives China its sense of being China,

關鍵在於是什麼讓中國感到 "身為中國"，

what gives the Chinese

是什麼讓中國人覺得做為

the sense of what it is to be Chinese,

一個中國人的要素，

comes not from the last hundred years,

這不應該從最近的一百年來看，

not from the nation-state period,

也不該和西方的歷史一樣

which is what happened in the West,

是從有 "國家概念" 的這段時期來看，

but from the period, if you like,

而是從兩千年前的

of the civilization-state.

(中國) 文明"邦國"就開始了。

I'm thinking here, for example,

我正在想的，舉例子來說，

of customs like ancestral worship,

譬如，祭拜祖先的習俗、

of a very distinctive notion of the state,

對 "國家" 的觀念賦予獨特的定義、

likewise, a very distinctive notion of the family,

和這類似地， 賦予"家庭" 獨特的定義、

social relationships like guanxi,

社會人際“關係”、

Confucian values and so on.

及儒家的倫理價值等等。

These are all things that come

這些都是從二千年前

from the period of the civilization-state.

就流傳下來的文化。

In other words, China, unlike the Western states and most countries in the world,

換句話說，中國和西方國家及世界上大部分的國家不同點，

is shaped by its sense of civilization,

在於中國擁有自己獨特的文明

its existence as a civilization-state,

以一種文明 "邦國" 的獨特方式存在，

rather than as a nation-state.

而非西方的 "國家" 觀念。

And there's one other thing to add to this, and that is this:

針對這點我還可以補充説明：

Of course we know China's big, huge,

我們都知道，就人口和地理上來說，

demographically and geographically,

中國是個極龐大的國家，

with a population of 1.3 billion people.

擁有13億人口。

What we often aren't really aware of

有一項事實我們經常沒有真正注意到，

is the fact

那即是，

that China is extremely diverse

中國是個十分多樣性

and very pluralistic,

及多元化的國家，

and in many ways very decentralized.

在很多方面中央的權力是下放的。

You can't run a place on this scale simply from Beijing,

要從北京管理這麽大的地方是不可能的，

even though we think this to be the case.

儘管我們習以為常的認為這是事實。

It's never been the case.

但事實從來不是如此。

So this is China, a civilization-state,

因此，這就是中國，建立在一種文明 "邦國" 架構下的國家，

rather than a nation-state.

而非西方概念的 "國家"。

And what does it mean?

那麽，這是什麽意思？

Well, I think it has all sorts of profound implications.

我認為這有很多深層的意涵。

I'll give you two quick ones.

我將簡單的舉兩個例子來說明。

The first is that

首先，

the most important political value for the Chinese

對中國人來說，最重要的政治價值

is unity,

是統一，

is the maintenance

是維護

of Chinese civilization.

中華文明。

You know, 2,000 years ago, Europe:

大家都知道，2000年前歐洲

breakdown -- the fragmentation of the Holy Roman Empire.

因羅馬帝國的瓦解而分崩離析。

It divided, and it's remained divided ever since.

從那時候開始就一直維持著分裂的狀態。

China, over the same time period,

但相較之下，中國確在同一時期

went in exactly the opposite direction,

走向正好相反的統一道路，

very painfully holding this huge civilization,

費盡精神氣力以維護其龐大的文明，

civilization-state, together.

並維繫該文明 "邦國" 的統一。

The second

其次

is maybe more prosaic,

是香港的議題，可能相對地

which is Hong Kong.

沒有那麼突出。

Do you remember the handover of Hong Kong

大家都還記得香港

by Britain to China in 1997?

在1997年從英國的手上回歸中國？

You may remember

大家也可能還記得

what the Chinese constitutional proposition was.

當時中國的憲法議案為：

One country, two systems.

一國兩制。

And I'll lay a wager

我敢打賭

that barely anyone in the West believed them.

當時西方國家大概沒有人會相信這樣的政策。

"Window dressing.

『認為只是裝飾門面，

When China gets its hands on Hong Kong,

等中國真的接收香港後，

that won't be the case."

不可能會實施一國兩制。』

Thirteen years on,

13年後的今天

the political and legal system in Hong Kong

香港的政治和法律制度

is as different now as it was in 1997.

還是如同1997年一樣，跟中國的不同。

We were wrong. Why were we wrong?

我們錯了，這是爲什麽？

We were wrong because we thought, naturally enough,

我們錯了，因爲我們自然而然地

in nation-state ways.

將中國套上西方概念的 "國家" 方式。

Think of German unification, 1990.

回想一下，1990年東西德的統一。

What happened?

發生什麼事呢？

Well, basically the East was swallowed by the West.

基本上東德被西德併吞了。

One nation, one system.

一個國家，一個體制。

That is the nation-state mentality.

這是西方的國家概念心態。

But you can't run a country like China,

但是你不能用西方的國家概念，

a civilization-state,

以單一文明及單一體制為基礎，

on the basis of one civilization, one system.

來治理像中國這樣以 "文明邦國"為架構的國家。

It doesn't work.

這是行不通的。

So actually the response of China

因此，中國

to the question of Hong Kong --

對香港議題的回應

as it will be to the question of Taiwan --

也將可以套用在臺灣的議題，

was a natural response:

很自然地回應，那即是：

one civilization, many systems.

單一文明，多元體制。

Let me offer you another building block

現在讓我再提供另外一個觀點，

to try and understand China --

以試著來了解中國，

maybe not sort of a comfortable one.

這個觀點也許不那麼令人怡悅。

The Chinese have a very, very different

中國人對民族的觀念

conception of race

跟其他大部分的國家比起來

to most other countries.

有極大的差別。

Do you know,

你知道嗎?

of the 1.3 billion Chinese,

在13億中國人裏

over 90 percent of them

有90%以上的人

think they belong to the same race,

都認爲自己是屬於同一民族──

the Han?

漢族。

Now, this is completely different

這跟世界上

from the world's [other] most populous countries.

其他人口衆多的國家是完全不一樣的，

India, the United States,

例如印度、美國

Indonesia, Brazil --

印尼、巴西，

all of them are multiracial.

這些國家都是多種族的

The Chinese don't feel like that.

中國人自己不認爲如此。

China is only multiracial

若勉爲其難地稱中國是個多種族國家，

really at the margins.

那也就是在邊緣的那些少數民族。

So the question is, why?

因此，我們要問，爲什麽會這樣呢？

Well the reason, I think, essentially

理由很簡單，我認為基本上

is, again, back to the civilization-state.

還是回到老話題──中國是一個 "文明邦國"。

A history of at least 2,000 years,

中國擁有超過2000年的歷史，

a history of conquest, occupation,

其歷史充滿了征服、佔領、

absorption, assimilation and so on,

吸收、同化等等，

led to the process by which,

在這經年累月的過程，

over time, this notion of the Han emerged --

而衍生了漢民族的概念；

of course, nurtured

當然，這個概念

by a growing and very powerful sense

逐漸地受到強力的文化認同感的

of cultural identity.

滋養與增強。

Now the great advantage of this historical experience

這段歷史經驗的最大優點

has been that, without the Han,

告訴我們，假若沒有漢民族，

China could never have held together.

中國是不可能會統一的。

The Han identity has been the cement

漢民族一直像是膠合劑一樣

which has held this country together.

將整個國家凝聚結合在一起。

The great disadvantage of it

然而，這段歷史經驗的最大缺點

is that the Han have a very weak conception

就是漢民族對文化差異的觀念

of cultural difference.

很微薄。

They really believe

漢族真的相信

in their own superiority,

自己種族的優越性，

and they are disrespectful

同時他們對其它族群

of those who are not.

並不尊重。

Hence their attitude, for example,

舉他們對待

to the Uyghurs and to the Tibetans.

維吾爾人或西藏人的態度為例。

Or let me give you my third building block,

或是讓我來提出第三個理由──

the Chinese state.

中國式的國家。

Now the relationship

現在，在中國，

between the state and society in China

國家和社會的關係

is very different from that in the West.

跟西方國家有極大的差異。

Now we in the West

現在我們西方國家

overwhelmingly seem to think -- in these days at least --

絕大多數的人似乎會認為，至少在現今，

that the authority and legitimacy of the state

國家的權力和合法性

is a function of democracy.

是民主的功能。

The problem with this proposition

這個論述的問題在於，

is that the Chinese state

在中國

enjoys more legitimacy

人民享有更多的

and more authority

合法性

amongst the Chinese

及權力

than is true

如跟任何西方國家

with any Western state.

相比較。

And the reason for this

它的理由

is because --

是因為──

well, there are two reasons, I think.

我認爲，原因有兩個。

And it's obviously got nothing to do with democracy,

而且很明顯地和民主一點關係都沒有，

because in our terms the Chinese certainly don't have a democracy.

因為以我們的術語來看，很確定的中國是沒有民主的。

And the reason for this is,

原因在於

firstly, because the state in China

首先，在中國

is given a very special --

國家被賦予一個很特別的──

it enjoys a very special significance

享有很特殊的地位，

as the representative,

國家同時是中華文明的代表

the embodiment and the guardian

及化身，

of Chinese civilization,

也是中華文明及 "文明邦國"

of the civilization-state.

的捍衛者。

This is as close as China gets

它的地位

to a kind of spiritual role.

近乎一種精神式的象徵。

And the second reason is because,

第二個原因，

whereas in Europe

在歐洲

and North America,

及北美洲

the state's power is continuously challenged --

國家的權力不斷地受到挑戰──

I mean in the European tradition,

我指的是歐洲傳統上，

historically against the church,

在歷史上受到來自教廷、

against other sectors of the aristocracy,

其他派別的貴族

against merchants and so on --

及商人等等的挑戰──

for 1,000 years,

然而，1000年以來

the power of the Chinese state

"國家" 的地位在中國

has not been challenged.

從沒被挑戰過。

It's had no serious rivals.

中國還沒有強力的對手與之抗衡。

So you can see

因此你可以看出，

that the way in which power has been constructed in China

中國權力建構的方式

is very different from our experience

從我們西方的歷史經驗來看

in Western history.

二者是十分迥異的。

The result, by the way,

因此，

is that the Chinese have a very different view of the state.

中國對 "國家" 的觀念和我們截然不同。

Whereas we tend to view it as an intruder,

我們傾向視國家為侵入者、

a stranger,

外來者，

certainly an organ

而且理所當然的，國家是一個機構，

whose powers need to be limited

它的權利需要被限制、

or defined and constrained,

定義及約束，

the Chinese don't see the state like that at all.