America's public energy conversation

最後總歸為這個問題

boils down to this question:

你比較喜歡哪種死法 A. 石油戰爭

Would you rather die of A) oil wars,

B. 氣候變遷

or B) climate change,

C. 核武浩劫

or C) nuclear holocaust,

或是 D. 以上皆是

or D) all of the above?

噢 我漏了一個 E. 以上皆非

Oh, I missed one: or E) none of the above?

但通常不會有這個選項

That's the one we're not normally offered.

要是能運用能源 協助我們工作

What if we could make energy do our work

又不會導致毀滅 該有多好

without working our undoing?

我們能不能安心使用燃料

Could we have fuel without fear?

我們能不能重新造出火

Could we reinvent fire?

火造就了人類

You see, fire made us human;

石化燃料使我們現代化

fossil fuels made us modern.

但我們現在需要一種新的火

But now we need a new fire

一種能讓我們安全 安定 健康 又能永續發展的火

that makes us safe, secure, healthy and durable.

讓我們看看 該怎麼做

Let's see how.

世界上五分之四的能源

Four-fifths of the world's energy

仍然來自於每年燃燒

still comes from burning each year

四立方英哩原始沼澤的

four cubic miles of the rotted remains

腐化物質

of primeval swamp goo.

這些石化燃料

Those fossil fuels

幫助我們建立文明

have built our civilization.

幫助我們創造財富

They've created our wealth.

豐富了數十億人的生活

They've enriched the lives of billions.

但就安全 經濟 健康和環境而言

But they also have rising costs

石化燃料的成本 卻不斷增加

to our security, economy, health and environment

也許利仍大於弊 但壞處的確日漸增加

that are starting to erode, if not outweigh their benefits.

所以我們需要一種新的火

So we need a new fire.

從舊的火 轉變成新的火

And switching from the old fire to the new fire

意味著石油及電力的使用模式 將會改變

means changing two big stories about oil and electricity,

雖然兩者都會排放五分之二的化石碳

each of which puts two-fifths of the fossil carbon in the air.

卻大不相同

But they're really quite distinct.

石油所產生的電力 占不到 1%

Less than one percent of our electricity is made from oil --

而燃煤產生了 將近 50% 的電力

although almost half is made from coal.

兩者的用途都相當集中

Their uses are quite concentrated.

四分之三的石油 集中在交通運輸

Three-fourths of our oil fuel is transportation.

而四分之三的電力 用於建築物用電

Three-fourths of our electricity powers buildings.

而兩者所剩下的四分之一 則供給工廠營運

And the rest of both runs factories.

高效率的交通工具 建築物與工廠

So very efficient vehicles, buildings and factories

能省下許多石油與燃煤

save oil and coal,

還有能取代石油與煤炭的天然氣

and also natural gas that can displace both of them.

但目前的能源系統不只是沒效率

But today's energy system is not just inefficient,

還相當零散

it is also disconnected,

系統老舊 汙穢不堪 又不安全

aging, dirty and insecure.

能源系統勢必要翻新

So it needs refurbishment.

到 2050 年 系統就能較有效率

By 2050 though, it could become efficient,

彼此互通 妥善運用

connected and distributed

也能節約能源

with elegantly frugal

交通工具 工廠與建築物

autos, factories and buildings

都仰賴兼具現代化 安全

all relying on a modern, secure

與使用彈性的電力系統

and resilient electricity system.

到 2050 年 我們就能減少對石油與煤炭的依賴

We can eliminate our addiction to oil and coal by 2050

並將天然氣的使用量降低三分之一

and use one-third less natural gas

此時 我們能更有效運用資源

while switching to efficient use

與再生能源

and renewable supply.

到了 2050 年

This could cost, by 2050,

淨現值能減少五兆美元

five trillion dollars less in net present value,

這裡是指總值

that is expressed as a lump sum today,

是相對於目前的營運成本而言

than business as usual --

但我們必須先假設 碳排放

assuming that carbon emissions

及其他隱性或外部成本為零

and all other hidden or external costs are worth zero --

但這只是保守估計

a conservatively low estimate.

如果能源系統變得更便宜

Yet this cheaper energy system

就能使美國經濟擴大 158%

could support 158 percent bigger U.S. economy

完全不使用石油 煤炭

all without needing oil or coal,

或核能

or for that matter nuclear energy.

不僅於此 這個轉變不需要新發明

Moreover, this transition needs no new inventions

不需要新法令

and no acts of Congress

不需要新稅目 不需要補助金 也不需要新法條

and no new federal taxes, mandate subsidies or laws

美國政府也不會因此陷入困境

and running Washington gridlock.

容我重申

Let me say that again.

我想讓你們知道 要怎樣讓美國

I'm going to tell you how to get the United States

完全擺脫石油與煤炭 並減少五兆美元的開銷

completely off oil and coal, five trillion dollars cheaper

完全不需要

with no act of Congress

受營利組織操控的國會 制訂新法

led by business for profit.

換句話說 我們要運用最具效率的組織 民營企業

In other words, we're going to use our most effective institutions --

與公民社會 共同努力

private enterprise co-evolving with civil society

並透過軍事革新 加速發展

and sped by military innovation

這樣才能跳過最不具效率的機構

to go around our least effective institutions.

也許你們最關心的

And whether you care most

是利益 工作 競爭優勢

about profits and jobs and competitive advantage

國家安全 環境管理

or national security, or environmental stewardship

氣候保護 或是公共衛生

and climate protection and public health,

重新研發取得能源的方式 合理也有賺頭

reinventing fire makes sense and makes money.

據說 艾森豪將軍說過

General Eisenhower reputedly said

將一個棘手問題的範圍擴大

that enlarging the boundaries of a tough problem

就能涵蓋更多解決方案與協助效應 就能解決問題

makes it soluble by encompassing more options and more synergies.

所以 為了要重新研發取得能源的方式

So in reinventing fire,

我們結合了耗能的四個部分

we integrated all four sectors that use energy --

也就是 交通運輸 建築用電 工業與發電

transportation, buildings, industry and electricity --

也結合了四方面的革新

and we integrated four kinds of innovation,

不單只靠新科技和政策

not just technology and policy,

還包括設計與商業策略

but also design and business strategy.

合併後 產生的效益

Those combinations yield

遠比各項的總和還大

very much more than the sum of the parts,

特別是合併後 創造了顛覆性商業的機會

especially in creating deeply disruptive business opportunities.

我們每天都得花 20 億買石油

Oil costs our economy two billion dollars a day,

每天還得多付 40 億美元

plus another four billion dollars a day

投注在隱性的經濟與軍事成本

in hidden economic and military costs,

總額竟然超過國內生產總值的六分之一

raising its total cost to over a sixth of GDP.

既然五分之三的機動燃料都用在交通工具上

Our mobility fuel goes three-fifths to automobiles.

那我們就從這個問題著手吧

So let's start by making autos oil free.

要驅動一般車種 得耗費三分之二的能量

Two-thirds of the energy it takes to move a typical car

而車子的重量 就是如此耗能的原因

is caused by its weight.

無論是減輕車子的重量 或是減少煞車時的消耗

And every unit of energy you save at the wheels,

如果能在開車時節省一單位的能量

by taking out weight or drag,

油箱就能減少七單位的耗損

saves seven units in the tank,

因為你不需要多耗費六單位的能量

because you don't have to waste six units

把能量傳輸到車輪

getting the energy to the wheels.

但很不幸的是 在過去 25 年

Unfortunately, over the past quarter century,

嚴重的肥胖問題 讓原本兩噸重的車子變得更重

epidemic obesity has made our two-ton steel cars

而且增加的速度將近兩倍

gain weight twice as fast as we have.

但現今 我們擁有超輕 超堅固材料

But today, ultralight, ultrastrong materials,

像是碳纖維複合材料

like carbon fiber composites,

能大幅減輕車子的重量

can make dramatic weight savings snowball

也能讓生產汽車 變得更簡單 更便宜

and can make cars simpler and cheaper to build.

汽車質量越輕 運轉越順暢

Lighter and more slippery autos

驅動汽車所需的能量就越低

need less force to move them,

引擎就能越小

so their engines get smaller.

事實上 車輛的這種適性

Indeed, that sort of vehicle fitness

能讓電力驅動變得經濟實惠

then makes electric propulsion affordable

因為電力電池或是燃料電池

because the batteries or fuel cells

也能變得更小 更輕 更便宜

also get smaller and lighter and cheaper.

最後 電池的價格就能與目前價格相仿

So sticker prices will ultimately fall to about the same as today,

而駕駛成本 就算是從一開始算起

while the driving cost, even from the start,

也降低非常多了

is very much lower.

結合這些革新 就能讓汽車製造商

So these innovations together can transform automakers

不需再想方設法

from wringing tiny savings

節省蒸氣引擎與軸封技術的成本 卻成效不彰

out of Victorian engine and seal-stamping technologies

而能省下一大筆開銷

to the steeply falling costs

只要結合這三項彼此相互補強的革新 就能做到

of three linked innovations that strongly reenforce each other --

當中包含 超輕材料 製造技術

namely ultralight materials, making them into structures

以及電力驅動系統

and electric propulsion.

配合短期優惠方案

The sales can grow and the prices fall even faster

就能增加銷量 價錢也能壓低得更快

with temporary feebates,

這對高效能的新車種而言 就像是種回扣

that is rebates for efficient new autos

金額與低效能車種的花費相當

paid for by fees on inefficient ones.

在剛開始的前兩年

And just in the first two years

歐洲實行的五項優惠方案中 最大的一項

the biggest of Europe's five feebate programs

將汽車的效能提升速度 提高了三倍

has tripled the speed of improving automotive efficiency.

換成電動車

The resulting shift to electric autos

我們就必須改變遊戲規則

is going to be as game-changing

就像從打字機轉換到電腦一樣

as shifting from typewriters to the gains in computers.

當然 電腦與電子產品

Of course, computers and electronics

是現今美國規模最大的工業

are now America's biggest industry,

但打字機製造商卻消失無蹤

while typewriter makers have vanished.

車輛適性

So vehicle fitness

產生了一種新的汽車競爭策略

opens a new automotive competitive strategy

在未來 40 年 汽車的省油率能提升兩倍

that can double the oil savings over the next 40 years,

電動車也變得平價

but then also make electrification affordable,

如此 電動車就能取代汽油車

and that displaces the rest of the oil.

美國有能力主導這一波汽車革新

America could lead this next automotive revolution.

但目前 主導權在德國手上

Currently the leader is Germany.

去年 福斯汽車宣布

Last year, Volkswagen announced

從今年開始 他們會著手生產

that by next year they'll be producing

碳纖維插件混合車

this carbon fiber plugin hybrid

一加侖的汽油 就能跑 230 英哩

getting 230 miles a gallon.

同樣在去年 BMW 公布了

Also last year, BMW announced

這款碳纖維電動車

this carbon fiber electric car,

公司指出 運用了碳纖維技術

they said that its carbon fiber is paid for

就能減少汽車的電池數目

by needing fewer batteries.

他們也表示 "我們不願成為打字機製造商"

And they said, "We do not intend to be a typewriter maker."

奧迪公司宣稱 他們要在一年內打敗福斯與 BMW

Audi claimed it's going to beat them both by a year.

七年前 許多美國廠商運用了

Seven years ago, an even faster and cheaper

更快速 更便宜的生產科技

American manufacturing technology

以製造出碳纖維測試零件

was used to make this little carbon fiber test part,

這玩意兒還能當帽子

which doubles as a carbon cap.

(笑聲)

(Laughter)

只要一分鐘 你們就能聽出

In one minute -- and you can tell from the sound

它有多麼堅硬 多麼牢固

how immensely stiff and strong it is.

掉到地上也沒關係 它比鈦金屬還硬

Don't worry about dropping it, it's tougher than titanium.

事實上 湯姆弗里德曼曾拿鐵鎚死命地敲

Tom Friedman actually whacked it as hard as he could with a sledgehammer

結果卻連一點刮痕也沒有

without even scuffing it.

這樣的生產技術

But such manufacturing techniques

如果能結合流體設計

can scale to automotive speed and cost

就能影響汽車的速度與成本

with aerospace performance.

除了能將生產汽車的資本降低五分之四

They can save four-fifths of the capital needed to make autos.

它也能保障生命安全

They can save lives

因為它能吸收的撞擊力

because this stuff can absorb

是每磅鋼鐵所能吸收的 12 倍

up to 12 times as much crash energy per pound as steel.

如果能全面採行這個技術

If we made all of our autos this way,

就能省下 一個半的沙烏地阿拉伯

it would save oil equivalent to finding

或半個石油輸出國家組織所蘊含的油

one and a half Saudi Arabias, or half an OPEC,

若從底特律著手 就有可能成功

by drilling in the Detroit formation, a very prospective play.

底特律所蘊含 數百萬桶的石油

And all those mega-barrels under Detroit

平均每桶都要價 18 美元

cost an average of 18 bucks a barrel.

全為美國所產 也沒有碳排放的問題

They are all-American, carbon-free

取之不盡 用之不竭

and inexhaustible.

同樣的道理 同樣的商業邏輯

The same physics and the same business logic

也適用於大型交通工具

also apply to big vehicles.

2005 年到 2010 年

In the five years ending with 2010,

沃爾瑪的重型卡車隊 每英哩的石油用量

Walmart saved 60 percent of the fuel per ton-mile

減少了 60%

in its giant fleet of heavy trucks

這歸功於更好的設計與後勤機制

through better logistics and design.

單就重型卡車 憑藉科技所省下來的部分

But just the technological savings in heavy trucks

就有三分之二這麼多

can get to two-thirds.

就像是螢幕上所呈現的

And combined with triple to quintuple efficiency airplanes,

若結合運輸效率為三到五倍的飛機

now on the drawing board,

就能省下將近一兆

can save close to a trillion dollars.

而今 能源效率的軍事革新

Also today's military revolution in energy efficiency

也能加速民生科技的發展

is going to speed up all of these civilian advances

就像是軍事研發

in much the same way that military R&D

同樣賜予我們網際網路 全球定位系統

has given us the Internet, the Global Positioning System

還有噴射引擎 與微晶片工業

and the jet engine and microchip industries.

當我們設計 生產更好的交通工具時

As we design and build vehicles better,

我們也能更明智地使用它們

we can also use them smarter

運用四種強而有力的科技

by harnessing four powerful techniques

以減少駕駛時 無謂的耗損

for eliminating needless driving.

知道出遊里程數成長還不夠

Instead of just seeing the travel grow,

我們可以運用創新的定價方式

we can use innovative pricing,

以里程數計算道路使用費 而不以耗油量計

charging for road infrastructure by the mile, not by the gallon.

我們可以運用智慧資訊科技 提升運輸能力

We can use some smart IT to enhance transit

增進車輛共用及共乘率

and enable car sharing and ride sharing.

我們能運用智慧又有經濟效益的成長模組

We can allow smart and lucrative growth models

幫助已經接近目標的人們

that help people already be near where they want to be,

走對方向

so they don't need to go somewhere else.

我們也能運用智慧資訊科技

And we can use smart IT

保持交通順暢

to make traffic free-flowing.

結合智慧資訊科技 我們就能更接近目標

Together, those things can give us the same or better access

減少 46% 至 84 %的駕駛消耗

with 46 to 84 percent less driving,

再省下一筆 4千億美元的開銷

saving another 0.4 trillion dollars,

若能更有效使用卡車 就能再省 3千億

plus 0.3 trillion dollars from using trucks more productively.

將金額總和起來 40 年後

So 40 years hence, when you add it all up,

美國汽車經濟

a far more mobile U.S. economy

就能完全擺脫石油

can use no oil.

就能省下每桶 25 美元的石油

Saving or displacing barrels for 25 bucks

更不需要花一百多元去買

rather than buying them for over a hundred,

忽略隱性成本的話

adds up to a $4 trillion net saving

淨節省總值高達四兆美元

counting all the hidden costs at zero.

為了要讓汽車工業脫離石油

So to get mobility without oil,

擺脫石油的束縛

to phase out the oil,

我們得先增加效率 再設法改變燃料

we can get efficient and then switch fuels.

每加侖汽油能跑 125 至 240 英哩的汽車

Those 125 to 240 mile-per-gallon-equivalent autos

可以混合使用氫燃料電池

can use any mixture of hydrogen fuel cells,

電力電池 與先進的生質燃料

electricity and advanced biofuels.

事實上 卡車與飛機

The trucks and planes can realistically use

也能使用氫氣或生質燃料

hydrogen or advanced biofuels.

卡車甚至能使用天然氣

The trucks could even use natural gas.

所有的交通工具 都能擺脫石油

But no vehicles will need oil.

所需的生質燃料

And the most biofuel we might need,

每天也不過 300 萬桶

just three million barrels a day,

其中的三分之二的可由廢棄物回收製造

can be made two-thirds from waste

完全不需要占用農地

without displacing any cropland

也不會傷害土壤與氣候

and without harming soil or climate.

我們的團隊正在加速發展這種省油模式

Our team speeds up these kinds of oil savings

我們稱之為 "體制針灸"

by what we call "institutional acupuncture."

我們是因為 商業邏輯過多

We figure out where the business logic

沒辦法順利流動的概念 才想到的

is congested and not flowing properly,

我們插入細針幫助它導通

we stick little needles in it to get it flowing,

與福特汽車、沃爾瑪、國防部等單位合作

working with partners like Ford and Walmart and the Pentagon.