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  • Translator: Jenny Zurawell Reviewer: Morton Bast

    美國的公共能源議題

  • America's public energy conversation

    最後總歸為這個問題

  • boils down to this question:

    你比較喜歡哪種死法 A. 石油戰爭

  • Would you rather die of A) oil wars,

    B. 氣候變遷

  • or B) climate change,

    C. 核武浩劫

  • or C) nuclear holocaust,

    或是 D. 以上皆是

  • or D) all of the above?

    噢 我漏了一個 E. 以上皆非

  • Oh, I missed one: or E) none of the above?

    但通常不會有這個選項

  • That's the one we're not normally offered.

    要是能運用能源 協助我們工作

  • What if we could make energy do our work

    又不會導致毀滅 該有多好

  • without working our undoing?

    我們能不能安心使用燃料

  • Could we have fuel without fear?

    我們能不能重新造出火

  • Could we reinvent fire?

    火造就了人類

  • You see, fire made us human;

    石化燃料使我們現代化

  • fossil fuels made us modern.

    但我們現在需要一種新的火

  • But now we need a new fire

    一種能讓我們安全 安定 健康 又能永續發展的火

  • that makes us safe, secure, healthy and durable.

    讓我們看看 該怎麼做

  • Let's see how.

    世界上五分之四的能源

  • Four-fifths of the world's energy

    仍然來自於每年燃燒

  • still comes from burning each year

    四立方英哩原始沼澤的

  • four cubic miles of the rotted remains

    腐化物質

  • of primeval swamp goo.

    這些石化燃料

  • Those fossil fuels

    幫助我們建立文明

  • have built our civilization.

    幫助我們創造財富

  • They've created our wealth.

    豐富了數十億人的生活

  • They've enriched the lives of billions.

    但就安全 經濟 健康和環境而言

  • But they also have rising costs

    石化燃料的成本 卻不斷增加

  • to our security, economy, health and environment

    也許利仍大於弊 但壞處的確日漸增加

  • that are starting to erode, if not outweigh their benefits.

    所以我們需要一種新的火

  • So we need a new fire.

    從舊的火 轉變成新的火

  • And switching from the old fire to the new fire

    意味著石油及電力的使用模式 將會改變

  • means changing two big stories about oil and electricity,

    雖然兩者都會排放五分之二的化石碳

  • each of which puts two-fifths of the fossil carbon in the air.

    卻大不相同

  • But they're really quite distinct.

    石油所產生的電力 占不到 1%

  • Less than one percent of our electricity is made from oil --

    而燃煤產生了 將近 50% 的電力

  • although almost half is made from coal.

    兩者的用途都相當集中

  • Their uses are quite concentrated.

    四分之三的石油 集中在交通運輸

  • Three-fourths of our oil fuel is transportation.

    而四分之三的電力 用於建築物用電

  • Three-fourths of our electricity powers buildings.

    而兩者所剩下的四分之一 則供給工廠營運

  • And the rest of both runs factories.

    高效率的交通工具 建築物與工廠

  • So very efficient vehicles, buildings and factories

    能省下許多石油與燃煤

  • save oil and coal,

    還有能取代石油與煤炭的天然氣

  • and also natural gas that can displace both of them.

    但目前的能源系統不只是沒效率

  • But today's energy system is not just inefficient,

    還相當零散

  • it is also disconnected,

    系統老舊 汙穢不堪 又不安全

  • aging, dirty and insecure.

    能源系統勢必要翻新

  • So it needs refurbishment.

    到 2050 年 系統就能較有效率

  • By 2050 though, it could become efficient,

    彼此互通 妥善運用

  • connected and distributed

    也能節約能源

  • with elegantly frugal

    交通工具 工廠與建築物

  • autos, factories and buildings

    都仰賴兼具現代化 安全

  • all relying on a modern, secure

    與使用彈性的電力系統

  • and resilient electricity system.

    到 2050 年 我們就能減少對石油與煤炭的依賴

  • We can eliminate our addiction to oil and coal by 2050

    並將天然氣的使用量降低三分之一

  • and use one-third less natural gas

    此時 我們能更有效運用資源

  • while switching to efficient use

    與再生能源

  • and renewable supply.

    到了 2050 年

  • This could cost, by 2050,

    淨現值能減少五兆美元

  • five trillion dollars less in net present value,

    這裡是指總值

  • that is expressed as a lump sum today,

    是相對於目前的營運成本而言

  • than business as usual --

    但我們必須先假設 碳排放

  • assuming that carbon emissions

    及其他隱性或外部成本為零

  • and all other hidden or external costs are worth zero --

    但這只是保守估計

  • a conservatively low estimate.

    如果能源系統變得更便宜

  • Yet this cheaper energy system

    就能使美國經濟擴大 158%

  • could support 158 percent bigger U.S. economy

    完全不使用石油 煤炭

  • all without needing oil or coal,

    或核能

  • or for that matter nuclear energy.

    不僅於此 這個轉變不需要新發明

  • Moreover, this transition needs no new inventions

    不需要新法令

  • and no acts of Congress

    不需要新稅目 不需要補助金 也不需要新法條

  • and no new federal taxes, mandate subsidies or laws

    美國政府也不會因此陷入困境

  • and running Washington gridlock.

    容我重申

  • Let me say that again.

    我想讓你們知道 要怎樣讓美國

  • I'm going to tell you how to get the United States

    完全擺脫石油與煤炭 並減少五兆美元的開銷

  • completely off oil and coal, five trillion dollars cheaper

    完全不需要

  • with no act of Congress

    受營利組織操控的國會 制訂新法

  • led by business for profit.

    換句話說 我們要運用最具效率的組織 民營企業

  • In other words, we're going to use our most effective institutions --

    與公民社會 共同努力

  • private enterprise co-evolving with civil society

    並透過軍事革新 加速發展

  • and sped by military innovation

    這樣才能跳過最不具效率的機構

  • to go around our least effective institutions.

    也許你們最關心的

  • And whether you care most

    是利益 工作 競爭優勢

  • about profits and jobs and competitive advantage

    國家安全 環境管理

  • or national security, or environmental stewardship

    氣候保護 或是公共衛生

  • and climate protection and public health,

    重新研發取得能源的方式 合理也有賺頭

  • reinventing fire makes sense and makes money.

    據說 艾森豪將軍說過

  • General Eisenhower reputedly said

    將一個棘手問題的範圍擴大

  • that enlarging the boundaries of a tough problem

    就能涵蓋更多解決方案與協助效應 就能解決問題

  • makes it soluble by encompassing more options and more synergies.

    所以 為了要重新研發取得能源的方式

  • So in reinventing fire,

    我們結合了耗能的四個部分

  • we integrated all four sectors that use energy --

    也就是 交通運輸 建築用電 工業與發電

  • transportation, buildings, industry and electricity --

    也結合了四方面的革新

  • and we integrated four kinds of innovation,

    不單只靠新科技和政策

  • not just technology and policy,

    還包括設計與商業策略

  • but also design and business strategy.

    合併後 產生的效益

  • Those combinations yield

    遠比各項的總和還大

  • very much more than the sum of the parts,

    特別是合併後 創造了顛覆性商業的機會

  • especially in creating deeply disruptive business opportunities.

    我們每天都得花 20 億買石油

  • Oil costs our economy two billion dollars a day,

    每天還得多付 40 億美元

  • plus another four billion dollars a day

    投注在隱性的經濟與軍事成本

  • in hidden economic and military costs,

    總額竟然超過國內生產總值的六分之一

  • raising its total cost to over a sixth of GDP.

    既然五分之三的機動燃料都用在交通工具上

  • Our mobility fuel goes three-fifths to automobiles.

    那我們就從這個問題著手吧

  • So let's start by making autos oil free.

    要驅動一般車種 得耗費三分之二的能量

  • Two-thirds of the energy it takes to move a typical car

    而車子的重量 就是如此耗能的原因

  • is caused by its weight.

    無論是減輕車子的重量 或是減少煞車時的消耗

  • And every unit of energy you save at the wheels,

    如果能在開車時節省一單位的能量

  • by taking out weight or drag,

    油箱就能減少七單位的耗損

  • saves seven units in the tank,

    因為你不需要多耗費六單位的能量

  • because you don't have to waste six units

    把能量傳輸到車輪

  • getting the energy to the wheels.

    但很不幸的是 在過去 25 年

  • Unfortunately, over the past quarter century,

    嚴重的肥胖問題 讓原本兩噸重的車子變得更重

  • epidemic obesity has made our two-ton steel cars

    而且增加的速度將近兩倍

  • gain weight twice as fast as we have.

    但現今 我們擁有超輕 超堅固材料

  • But today, ultralight, ultrastrong materials,

    像是碳纖維複合材料

  • like carbon fiber composites,

    能大幅減輕車子的重量

  • can make dramatic weight savings snowball

    也能讓生產汽車 變得更簡單 更便宜

  • and can make cars simpler and cheaper to build.

    汽車質量越輕 運轉越順暢

  • Lighter and more slippery autos

    驅動汽車所需的能量就越低

  • need less force to move them,

    引擎就能越小

  • so their engines get smaller.

    事實上 車輛的這種適性

  • Indeed, that sort of vehicle fitness

    能讓電力驅動變得經濟實惠

  • then makes electric propulsion affordable

    因為電力電池或是燃料電池

  • because the batteries or fuel cells

    也能變得更小 更輕 更便宜

  • also get smaller and lighter and cheaper.

    最後 電池的價格就能與目前價格相仿

  • So sticker prices will ultimately fall to about the same as today,

    而駕駛成本 就算是從一開始算起

  • while the driving cost, even from the start,

    也降低非常多了

  • is very much lower.

    結合這些革新 就能讓汽車製造商

  • So these innovations together can transform automakers

    不需再想方設法

  • from wringing tiny savings

    節省蒸氣引擎與軸封技術的成本 卻成效不彰

  • out of Victorian engine and seal-stamping technologies

    而能省下一大筆開銷

  • to the steeply falling costs

    只要結合這三項彼此相互補強的革新 就能做到

  • of three linked innovations that strongly reenforce each other --

    當中包含 超輕材料 製造技術

  • namely ultralight materials, making them into structures

    以及電力驅動系統

  • and electric propulsion.

    配合短期優惠方案

  • The sales can grow and the prices fall even faster

    就能增加銷量 價錢也能壓低得更快

  • with temporary feebates,

    這對高效能的新車種而言 就像是種回扣

  • that is rebates for efficient new autos

    金額與低效能車種的花費相當

  • paid for by fees on inefficient ones.

    在剛開始的前兩年

  • And just in the first two years

    歐洲實行的五項優惠方案中 最大的一項

  • the biggest of Europe's five feebate programs

    將汽車的效能提升速度 提高了三倍

  • has tripled the speed of improving automotive efficiency.

    換成電動車

  • The resulting shift to electric autos

    我們就必須改變遊戲規則

  • is going to be as game-changing

    就像從打字機轉換到電腦一樣

  • as shifting from typewriters to the gains in computers.

    當然 電腦與電子產品

  • Of course, computers and electronics

    是現今美國規模最大的工業

  • are now America's biggest industry,

    但打字機製造商卻消失無蹤

  • while typewriter makers have vanished.

    車輛適性

  • So vehicle fitness

    產生了一種新的汽車競爭策略

  • opens a new automotive competitive strategy

    在未來 40 年 汽車的省油率能提升兩倍

  • that can double the oil savings over the next 40 years,

    電動車也變得平價

  • but then also make electrification affordable,

    如此 電動車就能取代汽油車

  • and that displaces the rest of the oil.

    美國有能力主導這一波汽車革新

  • America could lead this next automotive revolution.

    但目前 主導權在德國手上

  • Currently the leader is Germany.

    去年 福斯汽車宣布

  • Last year, Volkswagen announced

    從今年開始 他們會著手生產

  • that by next year they'll be producing

    碳纖維插件混合車

  • this carbon fiber plugin hybrid

    一加侖的汽油 就能跑 230 英哩

  • getting 230 miles a gallon.

    同樣在去年 BMW 公布了

  • Also last year, BMW announced

    這款碳纖維電動車

  • this carbon fiber electric car,

    公司指出 運用了碳纖維技術

  • they said that its carbon fiber is paid for

    就能減少汽車的電池數目

  • by needing fewer batteries.

    他們也表示 "我們不願成為打字機製造商"

  • And they said, "We do not intend to be a typewriter maker."

    奧迪公司宣稱 他們要在一年內打敗福斯與 BMW

  • Audi claimed it's going to beat them both by a year.

    七年前 許多美國廠商運用了

  • Seven years ago, an even faster and cheaper

    更快速 更便宜的生產科技

  • American manufacturing technology

    以製造出碳纖維測試零件

  • was used to make this little carbon fiber test part,

    這玩意兒還能當帽子

  • which doubles as a carbon cap.

    (笑聲)

  • (Laughter)

    只要一分鐘 你們就能聽出

  • In one minute -- and you can tell from the sound

    它有多麼堅硬 多麼牢固

  • how immensely stiff and strong it is.

    掉到地上也沒關係 它比鈦金屬還硬

  • Don't worry about dropping it, it's tougher than titanium.

    事實上 湯姆弗里德曼曾拿鐵鎚死命地敲

  • Tom Friedman actually whacked it as hard as he could with a sledgehammer

    結果卻連一點刮痕也沒有

  • without even scuffing it.

    這樣的生產技術

  • But such manufacturing techniques

    如果能結合流體設計

  • can scale to automotive speed and cost

    就能影響汽車的速度與成本

  • with aerospace performance.

    除了能將生產汽車的資本降低五分之四

  • They can save four-fifths of the capital needed to make autos.

    它也能保障生命安全

  • They can save lives

    因為它能吸收的撞擊力

  • because this stuff can absorb

    是每磅鋼鐵所能吸收的 12 倍

  • up to 12 times as much crash energy per pound as steel.

    如果能全面採行這個技術

  • If we made all of our autos this way,

    就能省下 一個半的沙烏地阿拉伯

  • it would save oil equivalent to finding

    或半個石油輸出國家組織所蘊含的油

  • one and a half Saudi Arabias, or half an OPEC,

    若從底特律著手 就有可能成功

  • by drilling in the Detroit formation, a very prospective play.

    底特律所蘊含 數百萬桶的石油

  • And all those mega-barrels under Detroit

    平均每桶都要價 18 美元

  • cost an average of 18 bucks a barrel.

    全為美國所產 也沒有碳排放的問題

  • They are all-American, carbon-free

    取之不盡 用之不竭

  • and inexhaustible.

    同樣的道理 同樣的商業邏輯

  • The same physics and the same business logic

    也適用於大型交通工具

  • also apply to big vehicles.

    2005 年到 2010 年

  • In the five years ending with 2010,

    沃爾瑪的重型卡車隊 每英哩的石油用量

  • Walmart saved 60 percent of the fuel per ton-mile

    減少了 60%

  • in its giant fleet of heavy trucks

    這歸功於更好的設計與後勤機制

  • through better logistics and design.

    單就重型卡車 憑藉科技所省下來的部分

  • But just the technological savings in heavy trucks

    就有三分之二這麼多

  • can get to two-thirds.

    就像是螢幕上所呈現的

  • And combined with triple to quintuple efficiency airplanes,

    若結合運輸效率為三到五倍的飛機

  • now on the drawing board,

    就能省下將近一兆

  • can save close to a trillion dollars.

    而今 能源效率的軍事革新

  • Also today's military revolution in energy efficiency

    也能加速民生科技的發展

  • is going to speed up all of these civilian advances

    就像是軍事研發

  • in much the same way that military R&D

    同樣賜予我們網際網路 全球定位系統

  • has given us the Internet, the Global Positioning System

    還有噴射引擎 與微晶片工業

  • and the jet engine and microchip industries.

    當我們設計 生產更好的交通工具時

  • As we design and build vehicles better,

    我們也能更明智地使用它們

  • we can also use them smarter

    運用四種強而有力的科技

  • by harnessing four powerful techniques

    以減少駕駛時 無謂的耗損

  • for eliminating needless driving.

    知道出遊里程數成長還不夠

  • Instead of just seeing the travel grow,

    我們可以運用創新的定價方式

  • we can use innovative pricing,

    以里程數計算道路使用費 而不以耗油量計

  • charging for road infrastructure by the mile, not by the gallon.

    我們可以運用智慧資訊科技 提升運輸能力

  • We can use some smart IT to enhance transit

    增進車輛共用及共乘率

  • and enable car sharing and ride sharing.

    我們能運用智慧又有經濟效益的成長模組

  • We can allow smart and lucrative growth models

    幫助已經接近目標的人們

  • that help people already be near where they want to be,

    走對方向

  • so they don't need to go somewhere else.

    我們也能運用智慧資訊科技

  • And we can use smart IT

    保持交通順暢

  • to make traffic free-flowing.

    結合智慧資訊科技 我們就能更接近目標

  • Together, those things can give us the same or better access

    減少 46% 至 84 %的駕駛消耗

  • with 46 to 84 percent less driving,

    再省下一筆 4千億美元的開銷

  • saving another 0.4 trillion dollars,

    若能更有效使用卡車 就能再省 3千億

  • plus 0.3 trillion dollars from using trucks more productively.

    將金額總和起來 40 年後

  • So 40 years hence, when you add it all up,

    美國汽車經濟

  • a far more mobile U.S. economy

    就能完全擺脫石油

  • can use no oil.

    就能省下每桶 25 美元的石油

  • Saving or displacing barrels for 25 bucks

    更不需要花一百多元去買

  • rather than buying them for over a hundred,

    忽略隱性成本的話

  • adds up to a $4 trillion net saving

    淨節省總值高達四兆美元

  • counting all the hidden costs at zero.

    為了要讓汽車工業脫離石油

  • So to get mobility without oil,

    擺脫石油的束縛

  • to phase out the oil,

    我們得先增加效率 再設法改變燃料

  • we can get efficient and then switch fuels.

    每加侖汽油能跑 125 至 240 英哩的汽車

  • Those 125 to 240 mile-per-gallon-equivalent autos

    可以混合使用氫燃料電池

  • can use any mixture of hydrogen fuel cells,

    電力電池 與先進的生質燃料

  • electricity and advanced biofuels.

    事實上 卡車與飛機

  • The trucks and planes can realistically use

    也能使用氫氣或生質燃料

  • hydrogen or advanced biofuels.

    卡車甚至能使用天然氣

  • The trucks could even use natural gas.

    所有的交通工具 都能擺脫石油

  • But no vehicles will need oil.

    所需的生質燃料

  • And the most biofuel we might need,

    每天也不過 300 萬桶

  • just three million barrels a day,

    其中的三分之二的可由廢棄物回收製造

  • can be made two-thirds from waste

    完全不需要占用農地

  • without displacing any cropland

    也不會傷害土壤與氣候

  • and without harming soil or climate.

    我們的團隊正在加速發展這種省油模式

  • Our team speeds up these kinds of oil savings

    我們稱之為 "體制針灸"

  • by what we call "institutional acupuncture."

    我們是因為 商業邏輯過多

  • We figure out where the business logic

    沒辦法順利流動的概念 才想到的

  • is congested and not flowing properly,

    我們插入細針幫助它導通

  • we stick little needles in it to get it flowing,

    與福特汽車、沃爾瑪、國防部等單位合作

  • working with partners like Ford and Walmart and the Pentagon.

    漫長的轉換過程正在進行