The question is whether the rest of the world feels a gentle ripple or tidal wave.

問題在於，全球各地感受到的是小小的漣漪，或是一陣滔天巨浪。

Now China is more than just a cog in the global economy.

現在的中國，在全球經濟的重要性上已然今非昔比。

No one should underestimate its ability to affect us all.

沒有人應該低估他的影響力。

But how?

但他會怎麼影響我們？

At 18 percent of the world economy, China is the second largest importer on Earth.

中國是全球次大的進口國，佔據了全球進口值的 18%。

Neighbors such as Japan, South Korea are deeply dependent on its success.

其鄰國如日本、南韓，在經濟上都相當仰賴中國的成功。

Germany is at risk as it produces capital goods, and commodity specialists such as Australia rely on coal, iron, or exports.

因為主要出口品為資本財，德國的經濟會陷入危機；專門生產煤礦、鋼鐵或其他出口品的澳洲也可能受害。

Pain here will hurt, but it's rarely decisive.

目前說到的這些，多少會造成損傷，但卻不足以致命。

And although China's currency has gone down six percent against the US dollar, this is no currency war.

儘管人民幣和美金的比值已經下降了 6%，這並不是一場貨幣戰爭。

The renminbi has modestly risen against most of its main trading partners.

人民幣在中國大部分的交易夥伴之間已經悄悄回升。

China worries of help *drag bring crude down to a fresh eleven-year low below 33 dollars a barrel.

＊中國經濟的孤立無援，使原油價格跌到近 11 年來的新低點，每桶低於 33 美元。

Pity Russia, Brazil, the gulf states have supplies to the all commodity sectors.

可憐的俄羅斯、巴西和波斯灣地區的國家，都有原油供給給各商品市場。

But low commodity prices mostly redistribute income rather than *dynamite economic prospects. Producers lose, consumers gain.

但低商品價格造成的是收入的重分配，而非刺激經濟成長。生產者損失，消費者受益。

The IMF still thinks that the net effect of lower commodity prices is positive for the global economy.

國際貨幣銀行組織仍認為，低商品價格的淨效益對全球經濟是有助益的。

A China slow down weakens inflation repression around the world.

中國的經濟成長趨緩削弱了各地抑制通膨的舉動。

At worst, a deflation respire will cut incomes and make debts unpayable. That's worrying.

最糟的情況是，通貨緊縮會使收入減少，並造成人們無法償還債務。這可就令人擔心了。

But low inflation also gives policy makers additional ways to keep monetary policy looser for longer, so there is a silver lining.

但低通膨也使決策者有更多方案來讓貨幣政策維持寬鬆，所以一切或許還是有希望的。

The Panacea effect of confidence has the greatest potential to shock.

一向被視為萬能的消費者信心，其實最容易被撼動。

If China's troubles persuade companies to ditch investment and households to tighten their belts, the global economic outlook can change radically for the worse.

如果中國的經濟危機促使企業放棄投資，並讓人民準備勒緊褲帶過日子，全球的經濟願景可能會產生劇變。

2008 told everyone that once confidence has gone, companies, banks, markets, and the financial system are all vulnerable.

2008 年的經驗告訴我們，一旦信心消失，企業、銀行、金融市場乃至整個金融體系都會脆弱不堪。

So, gentle ripple or tidal wave, that depends most on whether the rest of us panic.

所以，中國的影響到底是漣漪或巨浪，一切端看我們是否會因此而驚慌失措。