fellow TEDsters, grim economic times indeed.

各位TED的朋友，十分嚴峻的經濟時期

And so, I would like to cheer you up

所以，我想鼓舞大家一下

with one of the great, albeit largely unknown,

用一個不為眾人所熟知的

commercial success stories

成功的商業故事

of the past 20 years.

故事發生在20年前

Comparable, in its own very peculiar way,

與微軟與Google的成就相比

to the achievements of Microsoft or Google.

它另有一番特殊的成就

And it's an industry which has bucked the current recession

而且，它正默默地振興當前的

with equanimity.

經濟危機

I refer to organized crime.

我指的是「組織犯罪」

Now organized crime has been around

組織犯罪已經發生在我們周遭很久了，

for a very long time, I hear you say,

就像你知道的那樣

and these would be wise words, indeed.

這麼說真的一點都沒錯

But in the last two decades,

不過，過去二十年間

it has experienced an unprecedented expansion,

它以不可預料的程度擴張著

now accounting for roughly 15 percent

現今佔了將近百分之十五

of the world's GDP.

全世界的國民生產毛額

I like to call it the Global Shadow Economy,

我想把它改稱為「全球黑經濟」

or McMafia, for short.

或簡稱為 McMafia 麥克黑手黨（擬：全球都有的麥當勞）

So what triggered this extraordinary growth

倒底是什麼引起這個跨國性犯罪組織

in cross-border crime?

驚人的成長？

Well, of course, there is globalization,

當然，要提到全球化、

technology, communications, all that stuff,

科技進步、通訊發達等種種因素

which we'll talk about a little bit later.

待會，我們再回來談這些

But first, I would like to take you back

首先，我想讓你們回顧

to this event:

這個事件

the collapse of communism.

東歐共產主義解體

All across Eastern Europe, a most momentous episode

是二次大戰後，整個東歐

in our post-war history.

最重要的事件

Now it's time for full disclosure.

現在是時候來好好檢視

This event meant a great deal to me personally.

這件事對我來說非常重要

I had started smuggling books across the Iron Curtain

我曾經走私書籍進入鐵幕

to Democratic opposition groups in Eastern Europe,

給東歐的民主反對黨

like Solidarity in Poland,

像是波蘭的團結工會

when I was in my teens.

當我還是青少年的時候

I then started writing about Eastern Europe,

然後我開始以東歐為主題開始寫作

and eventually I became the BBC's chief correspondent for the region,

最後也順理成章的成為BBC該地區特派員的主管

which is what I was doing in 1989.

這些是我在1989年的事情

And so when 425 million people

所以，當四億兩千五百萬人民

finally won the right

終於掙到了選擇

to choose their own governments,

自己要的政府的權力

I was ecstatic,

我欣喜若狂

but I was also a touch worried

但又感到擔憂

about some of the nastier things

一些更醜陋的事情

lurking behind the wall.

潛藏在鐵幕後

It wasn't long, for example,

舉例來說

before ethnic nationalism

南斯拉夫的民族主義份子

reared its bloody head

在他們血腥上台之前並沒有

in Yugoslavia.

經歷很長的時間

And amongst the chaos,

在一團混亂當中

amidst the euphoria,

瀰漫著一種興奮

it took me a little while to understand

我花了些時間才了解

that some of the people who had wielded power

那些在1989年前的東歐

before 1989, in Eastern Europe,

已經掌握特權的人

continued to do so after the revolutions there.

在革命之後持續掌權

Obviously there were characters like this.

顯然有些是有頭有臉的人物，像是...

But there were also some more unexpected people

不過也有一些我們想不到的人物

who played a critical role in what was going on in Eastern Europe.

正影響著當時東歐的改變

Like this character. Remember these guys?

像這位先生，大家還記得他嗎？

They used to win the gold medals in weightlifting

他們曾經贏得舉重的金牌

and wrestling, every four years in the Olympics,

還有角力，每四年一次的奧運

and they were the great celebrities of communism,

在共產國家，他們是社會名流

with a fabulous lifestyle to go with it.

擁有奢華的生活

They used to get great apartments in the center of town,

在市中心擁有高檔的公寓

casual sex on tap,

酩酒美人

and they could travel to the West very freely,

可以自由的到西方國家旅行

which was a great luxury at the time.

在當時簡直是奢華到了極點

It may come as a surprise, but they played a critical role

這事情也許令人驚訝，他們扮演一個重要的角色

in the emergence of the market economy

市場經濟慢慢浮現

in Eastern Europe.

在東歐

Or as I like to call them, they are

或者換成我自己的說法：他們是

the midwives of capitalism.

資本主義的助產士

Here are some of those same weightlifters

這是那些舉重選手

after their 1989 makeover.

在1989年的變化之後

Now in Bulgaria --

現今在保加利亞

this photograph was taken in Bulgaria --

這些照片是在保加利亞拍的

when communism collapsed all over Eastern Europe,

當東歐共產國家一一垮台

it wasn't just communism;

垮的不只是共產主義

it was the state that collapsed as well.

政府的機制也垮了

That means your police force wasn't working.

意味著你的警察治安沒了

The court system wasn't functioning properly.

法院的系統無法正常運作

So what was a business man in the brave new world

一個勇敢的生意人面對這新世界

of East European capitalism going to do

在東歐的資本主義市場該做什麼

to make sure that his contracts would be honored?

確定自己的合約還是有效？

Well, he would turn to people who were called, rather prosaically

這樣會被人家稱之為毫無創意

by sociologists, privatized law enforcement agencies.

尤其是在民營化法治單位社會學家眼裏

We prefer to know them as the mafia.

後來我們知道這些人成了黑道

And in Bulgaria, the mafia was soon joined

在保加利亞黑道人數激增

with 14,000 people

到了一萬四千人之多

who were sacked from their jobs in the security services

很多是在法治單位丟了工作的人

between 1989 and 1991.

在1989到1991年間

Now, when your state is collapsing,

當你的國家制度瓦解

your economy is heading south at a rate of knots,

你們的經濟往南邊發展而且打了結

the last people you want coming on to the labor market

你最不該求職的工作就是勞工市場

are 14,000 men and women whose chief skills

一萬四千名具有主管資格的男女

are surveillance,

被留置

are smuggling, building underground networks

做起走私、建立地下經濟的骨幹

and killing people.

而且還涉及謀殺

But that's what happened all over Eastern Europe.

這不只發生在一地，而是全東歐

Now, when I was working in the 1990s,

1990年代我的工作

I spent most of the time covering

花了很多時間揭發

the appalling conflict in Yugoslavia.

南斯拉夫的衝突

And I couldn't help notice

我不得不注意

that the people who were perpetrating the appalling atrocities,

那些犯下殘暴犯罪的人們

the paramilitary organizations,

的準軍事機構（軍閥）

were actually the same people running

就是那同一組人

the organized criminal syndicates.

也正運作著犯罪組織

And I came to think that behind the violence

我思考到這些暴力的背後

lay a sinister criminal enterprise.

有著這邪惡的犯罪企業集團

And so I resolved to travel around the world

因此我開始在世界各地旅行

examining this global criminal underworld

檢視這個世界的地下犯罪

by talking to policemen,

跟警察探尋資訊

by talking to victims, by talking to consumers

跟受害者交談，跟消費者交談

of illicit goods and services.

了解非法的物資與勞務

But above all else, by talking to the gangsters themselves.

除此之外，我還直接跟歹徒對談

And the Balkans was a fabulous place to start.

巴爾幹半島是最佳的起點

Why? Well of course

為什麼？

there was the issue of law and order collapsing,

這裡的法治蕩然無存

but also, as they say in the retail trade,

此外，就像零售業所說的

it's location, location, location.

最重要的就是店面、店面、店面

And what I noticed at the beginning of my research

一開始我注意的是

that the Balkans had turned into a vast transit zone

巴爾幹已經轉型成為一個大型的轉運區

for illicit goods and services coming from all over the world.

非法的貨物與勞務從世界各地而來

Heroin, cocaine,

海洛因、古柯鹼

women being trafficked into prostitution

女人被人蛇賣到賣淫集團

and precious minerals.

稀有的貴金屬

And where were they heading?

那麼他們去了哪裡？

The European Union, which by now

現在的目的地是歐盟

was beginning to reap the benefits of globalization,

也開始因為全球化而開始獲利

transforming it into

犯罪轉型成為

the most affluent consumer market in history,

歷史上最具影響力的消費者市場

eventually comprising some 500 million people.

最後組成了一個接近五億人口

And a significant minority

關鍵的少數

of those 500 million people

這五億人口

like to spend some of their leisure time and spare cash

喜歡渡假、花錢

sleeping with prostitutes,

找妓女

sticking 50 Euro notes up their nose

把五十歐元捲起塞在鼻孔裏（吸毒）

and employing illegal migrant laborers.

雇用非法的勞工

Now, organized crime in a globalizing world

現在組織犯罪已經是個全球化的事件

operates in the same way as any other business.

跟大企業經營一般的運作

It has zones of production,

他們有生產的區塊

like Afghanistan and Columbia.

像是阿富汗（海洛因）和哥倫比亞（古柯鹼）

It has zones of distribution,

有配銷的區塊

like Mexico and the Balkans.

像是墨西哥和巴爾幹半島

And then, of course, it has zones of consumption,

當然，也有消費的區塊

like the European Union, Japan

像是歐盟、日本

and of course, the United States.

當然，還有美國

The zones of production and distribution

生產的區塊和配銷的區塊

tend to lie in the developing world,

通常都分佈在開發中國家

and they are often threatened by appalling violence

而且大多受到暴力恐怖的威脅

and bloodshed.

經常發生流血事件

Take Mexico, for example.

以墨西哥為例

Six thousand people killed there in the last 18 months

過去的十八個月，共有六千人被殺

as a direct consequence of the cocaine trade.

死亡的背後多半跟古柯鹼的買賣有關

But what about the Democratic Republic of Congo?

那我們來看看剛果共和國

Since 1998, five million people have died there.

1998年到現在一共死了五百萬人

It's not a conflict you read about much in the newspapers,

這樣的衝突事件可能不會出現在你的報紙上

but it's the biggest conflict on this planet

不過卻是目前地球上最大的衝突

since the Second World War.

在二次大戰之後

And why is it? Because mafias from all around the world

為什麼？因為來自世界各地的黑道

cooperate with local paramilitaries

跟當地的軍閥合作

in order to seize the supplies

取得貨物的持續供應

of the rich mineral resources

就是剛果豐富的礦產

of the region.

以當地而言

In the year 2000, 80 percent of the world's coltan

2000年全世界80％的鈳鉭鐵礦出自這裡

was sourced to the killing fields

也是這場殺戮戰場的原因

of the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

戰場就在剛果共和國的東部

Now, coltan you will find in almost every mobile phone,

現在鈳鉭鐵礦幾乎可以在任何一支手機上

in almost every laptop

任何一台筆電上

and games console.

還有遊戲機上被看到

The Congolese war lords were selling this stuff to the mafia

剛果的軍閥將這金屬賣給黑道

in exchange for weapons,

來換得武器

and the mafia would then sell it on to Western markets.

黑道卻把貴金屬賣給了西方的市場

And it is this Western desire

這貴金屬是西方物質慾望

to consume

消費

that is the primary driver

這就是最原始的驅動力

of international organized crime.

導致國際化的組織犯罪行為

Now, let me show you some of my friends in action,

現在，讓大家看一下我的朋友在追緝行動中的畫面

caught conveniently on film by the Italian police,

義大利警方記錄下的影片

and smuggling duty-not-paid cigarettes.

走私未稅的香煙

Now, cigarettes out the factory gate are very cheap.

香煙出廠的時候是非常便宜的

The European Union then imposes the highest taxes on them in the world.

歐盟國家在香煙上打了世界上最昂貴的稅金

So if you can smuggle them into the E.U.,

所以你要是走私香煙進歐盟

there are very handsome profits to be made,

就會賺取極高的利潤

and I want to show you this to demonstrate

我現在要展示給各位看的

the type of resources available to these groups.

走私集團有什麼樣的工具

This boat is worth one million Euros when it's new.

這艘船的造價是一百萬歐元

And it's the fastest thing on European waters.

在歐洲沒有船跑得比他快

From 1994, for seven years,

從1994年算起七年

20 of these boats

20艘這樣的船

made the trip across the Adriatic,

通過亞德里亞海

from Montenegro to Italy, every single night.

每天晚上從蒙特內哥羅共和國到義大利

And as a consequence of this trade,

這樣的非法走私交易

Britain alone lost eight billion dollars in revenue.

每年英國損失八十億美金

And instead that money went to underwrite the wars in Yugoslavia

而這些沒有記錄的錢後來卻跑到了南斯拉夫的戰爭去了

and line the pockets of unscrupulous individuals.

還有一群無恥的商人口袋裡面

Now Italian police, when this trade started,

這種交易剛剛開始的時候義大利的警方

had just two boats which could go at the same speed.

只有兩艘警艇可以跟他們跑得一樣快

And this is very important, because the only way you can catch these guys

這非常重要，因為唯一逮到這些傢伙的方法

is if they run out of gas.

就是讓他們跑到沒汽油了

Sometimes the gangsters would bring with them

有時候歹徒還會另外偷運其他物品

women being trafficked into prostitution,

女人也用這個方式運送賣淫

and if the police intervened, they would hurl

如果發現警方追緝他們就

the women into the sea

把女人拋入海中

so that the police had to go and save them from drowning,

警察忙著救人免於溺斃

rather than chasing the bad guys.

歹徒就趁機逃逸

So I have shown you this to demonstrate

我給各位看這段影片

how many boats, how many vessels it takes

多少船、多少警艇

to catch one of these guys.

來追緝一艘歹徒所開的船

And the answer is six vessels.

答案是六艘

And remember, 20 of these speed boats

請各位記住有20艘這樣的快船