This summer, China frightened the herd when it devalued its currency but confidence returned,

今年夏天，中國調降匯率之舉震驚大眾，但人民的信心逐漸回歸

and the Renminbi made back about half of its loss, a loss that anyway wasn't all that big to start with, with just 3%.

人民幣取回前陣子大約一半的損失，儘管損失並不大，那時降至為百分之三

Frankly that's pretty much nothing compared with the usual emerging market currency devaluation.

老實說這與其他常見的新興市場外匯調降相比沒有什麼

But today, the Renminbi officially closed back below the low that it closed out in August,

但今天人民幣正式結束八月以來的低匯率

given up all of the autumn bounce, or I should say it is still a little bit better than the worst point reached intraday during summer.

放棄秋季時的股市反彈，或是應該說這和夏季調降時當天最糟的表現還要好一點

Now, optimism and pessimism about the currency reflected in the behavior of the offshore traded Renminbi,

但是，對貨幣的樂觀或悲觀可以從國外兌換人民幣看出來

which isn't limited by the official onshore 2% daily band.

外國兌換不受國內百分之二的日交易浮動影響

The red line here shows the value of the domestically traded Renminbi against the dollar,

紅色線顯示國內人民幣兌換美元率

and that's known as the CNY after its Bloomberg initials and the offshore currency the CNH here in blue,

彭博新聞用 CNY 來表示中國人民幣，CNH 離岸人民兌換率則為藍色線

and the gap between the two was very very wide after the first devaluation back in the summer.

自夏季第一次調降後這兩條線差異變得相當大

You can see the size of that there.

從這裡表就可以看出來

That was, because traders were betting that it was the start of a generalized deep basement of the currency.

這是因為，投資客都覺得這是一個人民幣低潮的開始

Fear was that China would attempt to weaken in order to ease the pressure on its exporters as its economy was slowing,

投資客擔心中國因考慮經濟成長速度變慢，而為了紓緩出口壓力，才有此調降之舉

that then hit industries worldwide, which compete with Chinese companies,

這也後續影響全球與中國企業互相競爭的產業

as well as hurting foreign suppliers of everything from durable goods to iron ore, whose dollar-based products now costs more in Renminbi.

同時對外國供應商，從耐用產品到鐵礦物，以美元為基礎的商品，而目前則要花更多人民幣

The gap has now widened right back out again,

這個差距現在又變得更大了

having briefly narrowed to nothing in fact slightly reverse there in the summer, sorry, in the autumn

在夏季，不對，在秋季時這個差距有些縮小

as the fierce calmed, like gaps now right back out again

隨著這股熱潮平緩下來，差距現在又變回以前那樣明顯

where it was, or very close to where it was in August, cause the data that came out today showing capital outflows

而這和八月的數據非常接近，可以從今天的淨資本流出看出

and falling imports and exports again stoking fears that the Renminbi is going to be allowed to keep on weakening.

進出口的式微助長了人民幣將持續低匯率的恐懼

The direction of the currency is particularly important to countries such as Brazil or Australia, which sell commodities to China.

匯率走向對巴西或澳洲這些出口產品到中國的國家來說特別重要

Steelmakers are already complaining that China is trying to export its way out of trouble,

鋼鐵製造商對此舉表示不滿，抱怨中國正試著以出口擺脫困境

dumping excess capacity abroad, rather than shutting down unprofitable facilities at home.

捨棄過剩國外產能，而不是關閉國內不再營利的企業

Although the currency weakened, the louder Chinese competitors are likely to shout.

雖然貨幣貶值，中國對手更加有表現的空間

From a investor perspective, weaker Renminbi particularly matters,

從投資者的角度來看，人民幣的弱化顯得特別重要

cause it adds global deflationary pressure, but in the short term,

因為它增加了全球通貨緊縮的壓力，但短期來看

weaker Renminbi is most obviously bad for commodity prices also for emerging markets.

人民幣貶值在物價上有顯著的不利，對新興市場來說也是如此

On here the red line shows the gap between the onshore and the offshore Renminbi against the dollar,

這裡紅色線顯示國內與海外人民幣兌換美元的差距

and the blue line shows the relative performance of emerging markets against developed markets.

藍色線則代表新興市場和已發展市場之間的相對表現

As the gap between the two initially widened out and then started to narrow again during the autumn,

一開始兩條線差距頗大，而後秋季時再次縮小

you can see that the confidence then returned and emerging markets beat developed markets.

看出投資客對新興市場的信心回復勝過已發展市場

People were happy again about China, but for the past two months, that gap has been widening out again,

人們再次對中國股市感到樂觀，然而在過去兩個月，差距又再次變大

that's the red line and as a result, emerging markets have been underperforming the developed markets.

就如這裡紅色線顯示，新興市場一直以來和已發展相比表現欠佳

Emerging markets at the moment do look fairly cheap, mining shares are back at levels

目前新興市場價格相當廉價，礦業股市回到

that were last seen in August 2003, when priced in dollars.

2003年八月的情形，以美元來看的話

Whether they are by, depends on all sorts of factors from Brazilian politics to mine closures and dividends,

未來發展是否好轉，要看巴西政治情形延伸出的各種因素，決定是否關閉礦場和分紅，

but chief among those is the performance of China and its currency.

但主要還是以中國和匯率表現為主

You're really taking a punt on what'll happen to this red line here.

紅色線之後會如何浮動就看中國採取什麼政策