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字幕列表 影片播放

  • (Video) Nicholas Negroponte: Can we switch to the video disc,

    (影片)尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝: 勞駕幫我

  • which is in play mode?

    播放下錄影帶。

  • I'm really interested in how you put people and computers together.

    我對人機對話模式情有獨鍾。

  • We will be using the TV screens or their equivalents

    將來,人們會使用電視螢幕

  • for electronic books of the future.

    或類似設備來閱讀電子書。

  • (Music, crosstalk)

    (音樂,串聲)

  • Very interested in touch-sensitive displays,

    我對觸控式螢幕深感興趣。

  • high-tech, high-touch, not having to pick up your fingers to use them.

    高科技,高觸感,指尖操控。

  • There is another way where computers

    另一種人機互動的方式是

  • touch people: wearing, physically wearing.

    把電腦像衣服那樣穿在身上。

  • Suddenly on September 11th,

    突然,在9月11號這一天,

  • the world got bigger.

    眼前的世界豁然開闊。

  • NN: Thank you. (Applause)

    尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝: 謝謝(掌聲)

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • When I was asked to do this,

    我受邀參加這次TED演講時,

  • I was also asked to look at all 14 TED Talks

    他們讓我重新回顧了

  • that I had given,

    我在不同年代

  • chronologically.

    先後發表的14次TED演講。

  • The first one was actually two hours.

    第一次實際講了2小時,

  • The second one was an hour,

    第二次1小時,

  • and then they became half hours,

    之後時間縮短到半小時。

  • and all I noticed was my bald spot getting bigger.

    我發現每來一次TED, 我的頭髮就掉了不少。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • Imagine seeing your life, 30 years of it, go by,

    暮然回首,30年的人生,就這樣悄然流逝。

  • and it was, to say the least,

    至少對我來講,

  • for me, quite a shocking experience.

    這太不可思議了。

  • So what I'm going to do in my time

    所以這次重回TED講臺,

  • is try and share with you what happened

    我會盡我所能,與大家分享

  • during the 30 years,

    這30年裡發生的事情。

  • and then also make a prediction,

    接著,我還會再做一次預測,

  • and then tell you a little bit

    然後告訴你們

  • about what I'm doing next.

    我接下來的工作計畫。

  • And I put on a slide

    這張幻燈片總結了

  • where TED 1 happened in my life.

    我第一次TED演講的主要內容。

  • And it's rather important

    那次演講相當重要,

  • because I had done 15 years of research before it,

    因為在此之前,我做了15年的潛心研究。

  • so I had a backlog, so it was easy.

    所以我有備而來,輕裝上陣。

  • It's not that I was Fidel Castro

    我不是菲德爾·卡斯楚(古巴領導人),

  • and I could talk for two hours,

    可以滔滔不絕地講2個小時,

  • or Bucky Fuller.

    也沒有布基·富勒 (新未來主義建築師)的遠見卓識,

  • I had 15 years of stuff,

    但我有15年的知識積累,

  • and the Media Lab was about to start.

    當時正在籌建媒體實驗室,

  • So that was easy.

    所以那次演講毫不費力。

  • But there are a couple of things

    不過,關於那個年代,

  • about that period

    還有當時

  • and about what happened that are

    發生的事情,

  • really quite important.

    有幾點非常重要。

  • One is that

    第一點是

  • it was a period when computers

    那個年代的電腦

  • weren't yet for people.

    不是為人而開發的。

  • And the other thing that sort of happened

    另一點

  • during that time is that

    在當時比較盛行,

  • we were considered sissy computer scientists.

    我們被認為是無用的電腦科學家。

  • We weren't considered the real thing.

    沒人拿我們當回事。

  • So what I'm going to show you is, in retrospect,

    所以,回想過去的經歷,

  • a lot more interesting and a lot more accepted

    我接下來展示的內容

  • than it was at the time.

    比當時更有趣,更廣為接受。

  • So I'm going to characterize the years

    我要概括一下這些年的經歷,

  • and I'm even going to go back

    甚至回過頭來重新審視

  • to some very early work of mine,

    一些非常早期的研究工作。

  • and this was the kind of stuff I was doing in the '60s:

    這是我在上世紀 60年代研究的裝置,

  • very direct manipulation,

    直接點擊操作,

  • very influenced as I studied architecture

    就像我在學習建築的時候一樣,

  • by the architect Moshe Safdie,

    我從建築師薩夫迪的理念中吸取了靈感。

  • and you can see that we even built robotic things

    你可以看到我們甚至建造了機器人裝置,

  • that could build habitat-like structures.

    它們能夠搭建“棲息地式”結構。

  • And this for me was

    對於我來講,

  • not yet the Media Lab,

    這還不是媒體實驗室,

  • but was the beginning of what I'll call

    而是我要稱之為

  • sensory computing,

    “感覺計算”的雛形。

  • and I pick fingers

    我之所以想到用手指來操控,

  • partly because everybody thought it was ridiculous.

    部分是因為每個人 都覺得這個想法很荒謬。

  • Papers were published

    當時發表了很多文章,

  • about how stupid it was to use fingers.

    指出手指操作有多愚蠢。

  • Three reasons: One was they were low-resolution.

    他們列舉了三個原因,首先是解析度低。

  • The other is your hand would occlude

    其次,手會遮擋視線,

  • what you wanted to see,

    讓你看不到細節。

  • and the third, which was the winner,

    最後,他們使出的“殺手鐧”是

  • was that your fingers would get the screen dirty,

    手指會弄髒螢幕。

  • and hence, fingers would never be

    所以,手指絕對不會

  • a device that you'd use.

    成為操作設備。

  • And this was a device we built in the '70s,

    這台裝置誕生於上世紀70年代,

  • which has never even been picked up.

    當時甚至無人問津。

  • It's not just touch sensitive,

    它不僅觸覺敏感,

  • it's pressure sensitive.

    而且壓力敏感。

  • (Video) Voice: Put a yellow circle there.

    (影片)聲音:在那兒畫一個黃色圓圈。

  • NN: Later work, and again this was before TED 1 —

    尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝: 這是後期的工作,同樣發生在 TED 1 之前——

  • (Video) Voice: Move that west of the diamond.

    (影片)聲音:把它移動到菱形的西面。

  • Create a large green circle there.

    在那兒畫一個綠色的大圓圈。

  • Man: Aw, shit.

    影片中的人:喔,該死!

  • NN: — was to sort of do interface concurrently,

    尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝: ——這是在進行同步交互。

  • so when you talked and you pointed

    一邊說話,一邊用手比劃。

  • and you had, if you will,

    只要你願意,

  • multiple channels.

    還可以有多種交互管道。

  • Entebbe happened.

    後來發生了恩德培劫機事件。

  • 1976, Air France was hijacked,

    1976年,一架法航客機

  • taken to Entebbe,

    被劫持到恩德培。

  • and the Israelis not only did an extraordinary rescue,

    以色列人完成了出色的營救行動。

  • they did it partly because they had practiced

    他们成功的部分原因是 利用了機場的物理模型,

  • on a physical model of the airport,

    進行過解救人質演練。

  • because they had built the airport,

    因為機場是他們修建的,

  • so they built a model in the desert,

    所以他們在沙漠中製作了一個模型。

  • and when they arrived at Entebbe,

    在到達恩德培之後,

  • they knew where to go because they had actually been there.

    他們知道怎麼走, 因為他們實際上去過那裡。

  • The U.S. government asked some of us, '76,

    1976年,美國政府詢問我們當中的一些人

  • if we could replicate that computationally,

    是否能通過計算機來再現營救過程?

  • and of course somebody like myself says yes.

    當然,我的一位同事說沒問題。

  • Immediately, you get a contract,

    然後,我們立刻得到

  • Department of Defense,

    一份來自國防部的合同。

  • and we built this truck and this rig.

    我們建造了這輛卡車, 還有那個攝像頭裝置,

  • We did sort of a simulation,

    憑藉當時的影像記錄,

  • because you had video discs,

    完成了一次模擬營救。

  • and again, this is '76.

    這同樣發生在1976年。

  • And then many years later,

    經過很多年之後,

  • you get this truck,

    當時的卡車變成了這樣,

  • and so you have Google Maps.

    於是我們有了谷歌地圖。

  • Still people thought,

    當時還是有人執意認為

  • no, that was not serious computer science,

    那不是嚴肅的電腦科學。

  • and it was a man named Jerry Wiesner,

    但有一個人的觀點卻截然相反,

  • who happened to be the president of MIT,

    他就是傑利·威斯納,

  • who did think it was computer science.

    當時恰巧是麻省理工學院 (MIT) 的院長。

  • And one of the keys for anybody

    所以,要想在人生中

  • who wants to start something in life:

    展露鋒芒,有所作為,

  • Make sure your president is part of it.

    一定要拉你的老闆“入夥”。

  • So when I was doing the Media Lab,

    所以我在創建媒體實驗室的時候,

  • it was like having a gorilla in the front seat.

    就像是有個“大佬”在前面罩著。

  • If you were stopped for speeding

    如果你因為超速而被截停,

  • and the officer looked in the window

    警官從車窗看進來,

  • and saw who was in the passenger seat,

    發現副駕駛位置坐著位“大佬”,

  • then, "Oh, continue on, sir."

    他就會說“哦,先生,請繼續上路吧。”

  • And so we were able,

    所以我們當時能夠大展身手。

  • and this is a cute, actually, device, parenthetically.

    這個裝置十分精巧。

  • This was a lenticular photograph of Jerry Wiesner

    這是一張傑利·威斯納的透鏡印刷照片,

  • where the only thing that changed in the photograph

    照片中唯一改變的

  • were the lips.

    就是嘴唇。

  • So when you oscillated that little piece

    當你搖晃那片

  • of lenticular sheet with his photograph,

    帶有照片的透鏡板時,

  • it would be in lip sync

    你會看到照片中的嘴唇

  • with zero bandwidth.

    以零頻寬同步。

  • It was a zero-bandwidth teleconferencing system

    這就是當時的

  • at the time.

    零頻寬遠端會議系統。

  • So this was the Media Lab's —

    這就是媒體實驗室的概念圖,

  • this is what we said we'd do,

    我們當時計畫建設的

  • that the world of computers, publishing,

    集電腦、出版等

  • and so on would come together.

    功能於一身的實驗室。

  • Again, not generally accepted,

    同樣,它沒有得到普遍接受,

  • but very much part of TED in the early days.

    但卻是早期 TED 的一部分。

  • And this is really where we were headed.

    這正是我們追求的目標,

  • And that created the Media Lab.

    引領我們創建了媒體實驗室。

  • One of the things about age

    對於變老的問題,

  • is that I can tell you with great confidence,

    我可以很自信的告訴你們,

  • I've been to the future.

    我確實去過未來,

  • I've been there, actually, many times.

    並且去過那裡不止一次。

  • And the reason I say that is,

    我這麼說的原因是,

  • how many times in my life have I said,

    我這一輩子似乎總在說:

  • "Oh, in 10 years, this will happen,"

    “在未來10年這些都會實現。”

  • and then 10 years comes.

    然後,10年過去了。

  • And then you say, "Oh, in five years, this will happen."

    接著又會說“在未來5年這些都會實現。”

  • And then five years comes.

    然後,5年過去了。

  • So I say this a little bit with having felt

    我在做出這些預測的時候,

  • that I'd been there a number of times,

    多少感覺自己曾經去過未來不止一次。

  • and one of the things that is most quoted

    在我說過的所有預言中,

  • that I've ever said

    被引用最多的就是

  • is that computing is not about computers,

    “計算不再只和電腦有關,它關係到我們的生活。”

  • and that didn't quite get enough traction,

    起初這句話並沒有引起廣泛關注,

  • and then it started to.

    之後慢慢受到重視。

  • It started to because people caught on

    人們開始關注這句話

  • that the medium wasn't the message.

    是因為他們意識到,媒體並不是資訊。

  • And the reason I show this car

    這裡所展示的這輛車,

  • in actually a rather ugly slide

    的確有點土,缺乏美感。

  • is just again to tell you the kind of story

    展示它是因為我想通過它 跟大家再分享一個

  • that characterized a little bit of my life.

    對我的人生多少有點啟發的故事。

  • This is a student of mine

    我有一個博士研究生,

  • who had done a Ph.D. called "Backseat Driver."

    他在全球定位系統GPS發明初期,

  • It was in the early days of GPS,

    設計了一個名為“後座司機”的系統,

  • the car knew where it was,

    能夠為駕駛員提供自動導向,

  • and it would give audio instructions

    還會向駕駛員發出語音指令,

  • to the driver, when to turn right, when to turn left and so on.

    比如,何時右轉,何時左轉。

  • Turns out, there are a lot of things

    結果我們發現,

  • in those instructions that back in that period

    當時設計的指令

  • were pretty challenging,

    有些很難執行。

  • like what does it mean, take the next right?

    比如說 “下一路口右轉”究竟是什麼意思?

  • Well, if you're coming up on a street,

    如果你駕車經過一條街道,

  • the next right's probably the one after,

    下一個右轉可能是下下個路口。

  • and there are lots of issues,

    這裡面包含很多技術難題。

  • and the student did a wonderful thesis,

    這名學生的論文寫得很棒。

  • and the MIT patent office said "Don't patent it.

    但 MIT 專利辦公室卻說“別為它申請專利。

  • It'll never be accepted.

    這肯定行不通。

  • The liabilities are too large.

    責任太大,風險太高。

  • There will be insurance issues.

    還有保險問題。

  • Don't patent it."

    別為它申請專利。”

  • So we didn't,

    所以我們放棄了。

  • but it shows you how people, again, at times,

    這件事再一次表明,

  • don't really look at what's happening.

    人們有時對周邊 正在發生的事情視若無睹。

  • Some work, and I'll just go through these very quickly,

    下面,我準備快速回顧一下 過去的一些研究工作。

  • a lot of sensory stuff.

    這裡有很多感測器元件。

  • You might recognize a young Yo-Yo Ma

    你也許認得出年輕時候的馬友友。

  • and tracking his body for playing

    我們利用感測器元件跟蹤

  • the cello or the hypercello.

    他演奏大提琴時的肢體動作。

  • These fellows literally walked around like that at the time.

    當年,這幫傢夥就穿著這副行頭到處晃悠。

  • It's now a little bit more discreet

    現在稍微有所收斂,

  • and more commonplace.

    並且更司空見慣了。

  • And then there are at least three heroes

    在這裡,至少有三位傳奇人物

  • I want to quickly mention.

    我想跟大家介紹一下。

  • Marvin Minsky, who taught me a lot

    第一位是馬文·明斯基(“人工智慧之父”),

  • about common sense,

    他教會了我很多常識性的東西。

  • and I will talk briefly about Muriel Cooper,

    第二位是穆尼爾·庫伯(MIT出版社藝術總監),

  • who was very important to Ricky Wurman

    他對於理查·沃爾曼(TED創始人)

  • and to TED, and in fact, when she got onstage,

    以及 TED 的發展都至關重要。

  • she said, the first thing she said was,

    當時她走上 TED 講臺,說的第一句話就是

  • "I introduced Ricky to Nicky."

    “我把裡基介紹給了尼基。”

  • And nobody calls me Nicky

    沒人叫我“尼基”,

  • and nobody calls Richard Ricky,

    也沒人稱呼理查“裡基”,

  • so nobody knew who she was talking about.

    所以大家都不知道她在說什麼。

  • And then, of course, Seymour Papert,

    當然,還有西摩•·帕爾特(人工智慧先驅)。

  • who is the person who said,

    他曾經說過這麼一句話:

  • "You can't think about thinking

    “除非你意識到自己在思考,

  • unless you think about thinking about something."

    否則你根本無法思考。”

  • And that's actuallyyou can unpack that later.

    這句話大家可以稍後解讀,

  • It's a pretty profound statement.

    確實非常深奧。

  • I'm showing some slides

    現在大家看到的是

  • that were from TED 2,

    TED 2 使用的一些幻燈片,

  • a little silly as slides, perhaps.

    也許看上去有點不入潮流。

  • Then I felt television really was about displays.

    那時候,我覺得電視機就是顯示器。

  • Again, now we're past TED 1,

    我們經過了 TED 1,

  • but just around the time of TED 2,

    差不多到了 TED 2 的時代。

  • and what I'd like to mention here is,

    在這裡,我想說的是——

  • even though you could imagine

    即使你能夠想像

  • intelligence in the device,

    設備中使用的智慧技術——

  • I look today at some of the work

    今天,我大致瞭解了一下

  • being done about the Internet of Things,

    最近有關物聯網的研究。

  • and I think it's kind of tragically pathetic,

    我覺得這些研究非常悲哀,

  • because what has happened is people take

    因為現實情況是這樣的:

  • the oven panel and put it on your cell phone,

    有人拿來烤箱控制面板,

  • or the door key onto your cell phone,

    或門鑰匙,然後安裝到你的手機上。

  • just taking it and bringing it to you,

    只是拿過來給你裝上。

  • and in fact that's actually what you don't want.

    但你其實並不需要。

  • You want to put a chicken in the oven,

    你需要的是讓你的烤箱變得智慧化。

  • and the oven says, "Aha, it's a chicken,"

    比方說,你把一隻雞放進烤箱,

  • and it cooks the chicken.

    它就會自動識別出這是一隻雞,

  • "Oh, it's cooking the chicken for Nicholas,

    知道這是為尼可拉斯烹飪的,

  • and he likes it this way and that way."

    知道尼古拉斯喜歡這樣和那樣的烹調方式。

  • So the intelligence, instead of being in the device,

    所以,智慧技術原本並不在設備中。

  • we have started today

    今天我們開始

  • to move it back onto the cell phone

    讓它重新回到手機上,

  • or closer to the user,

    或更接近用戶。

  • not a particularly enlightened view

    這不是有關物聯網

  • of the Internet of Things.

    特別具有啟發性的觀點。

  • Television, again, television what I said today,

    關於電視機,今天我講的是

  • that was back in 1990,

    上世紀90年代的電視機。

  • and the television of tomorrow

    而未來的電視機

  • would look something like that.

    看上去是這樣的。

  • Again, people, but they laughed cynically,

    又有人發出冷笑,

  • they didn't