which is in play mode?

播放下錄影帶。

I'm really interested in how you put people and computers together.

我對人機對話模式情有獨鍾。

We will be using the TV screens or their equivalents

將來，人們會使用電視螢幕

for electronic books of the future.

或類似設備來閱讀電子書。

(Music, crosstalk)

（音樂，串聲）

Very interested in touch-sensitive displays,

我對觸控式螢幕深感興趣。

high-tech, high-touch, not having to pick up your fingers to use them.

高科技，高觸感，指尖操控。

There is another way where computers

另一種人機互動的方式是

touch people: wearing, physically wearing.

把電腦像衣服那樣穿在身上。

Suddenly on September 11th,

突然，在9月11號這一天，

the world got bigger.

眼前的世界豁然開闊。

NN: Thank you. (Applause)

尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝: 謝謝（掌聲）

Thank you.

謝謝。

When I was asked to do this,

我受邀參加這次TED演講時，

I was also asked to look at all 14 TED Talks

他們讓我重新回顧了

that I had given,

我在不同年代

chronologically.

先後發表的14次TED演講。

The first one was actually two hours.

第一次實際講了2小時，

The second one was an hour,

第二次1小時，

and then they became half hours,

之後時間縮短到半小時。

and all I noticed was my bald spot getting bigger.

我發現每來一次TED， 我的頭髮就掉了不少。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Imagine seeing your life, 30 years of it, go by,

暮然回首，30年的人生，就這樣悄然流逝。

and it was, to say the least,

至少對我來講，

for me, quite a shocking experience.

這太不可思議了。

So what I'm going to do in my time

所以這次重回TED講臺，

is try and share with you what happened

我會盡我所能，與大家分享

during the 30 years,

這30年裡發生的事情。

and then also make a prediction,

接著，我還會再做一次預測，

and then tell you a little bit

然後告訴你們

about what I'm doing next.

我接下來的工作計畫。

And I put on a slide

這張幻燈片總結了

where TED 1 happened in my life.

我第一次TED演講的主要內容。

And it's rather important

那次演講相當重要，

because I had done 15 years of research before it,

因為在此之前，我做了15年的潛心研究。

so I had a backlog, so it was easy.

所以我有備而來，輕裝上陣。

It's not that I was Fidel Castro

我不是菲德爾·卡斯楚（古巴領導人），

and I could talk for two hours,

可以滔滔不絕地講2個小時，

or Bucky Fuller.

也沒有布基·富勒 （新未來主義建築師）的遠見卓識，

I had 15 years of stuff,

但我有15年的知識積累，

and the Media Lab was about to start.

當時正在籌建媒體實驗室，

So that was easy.

所以那次演講毫不費力。

But there are a couple of things

不過，關於那個年代，

about that period

還有當時

and about what happened that are

發生的事情，

really quite important.

有幾點非常重要。

One is that

第一點是

it was a period when computers

那個年代的電腦

weren't yet for people.

不是為人而開發的。

And the other thing that sort of happened

另一點

during that time is that

在當時比較盛行，

we were considered sissy computer scientists.

我們被認為是無用的電腦科學家。

We weren't considered the real thing.

沒人拿我們當回事。

So what I'm going to show you is, in retrospect,

所以，回想過去的經歷，

a lot more interesting and a lot more accepted

我接下來展示的內容

than it was at the time.

比當時更有趣，更廣為接受。

So I'm going to characterize the years

我要概括一下這些年的經歷，

and I'm even going to go back

甚至回過頭來重新審視

to some very early work of mine,

一些非常早期的研究工作。

and this was the kind of stuff I was doing in the '60s:

這是我在上世紀 60年代研究的裝置，

very direct manipulation,

直接點擊操作，

very influenced as I studied architecture

就像我在學習建築的時候一樣，

by the architect Moshe Safdie,

我從建築師薩夫迪的理念中吸取了靈感。

and you can see that we even built robotic things

你可以看到我們甚至建造了機器人裝置，

that could build habitat-like structures.

它們能夠搭建“棲息地式”結構。

And this for me was

對於我來講，

not yet the Media Lab,

這還不是媒體實驗室，

but was the beginning of what I'll call

而是我要稱之為

sensory computing,

“感覺計算”的雛形。

and I pick fingers

我之所以想到用手指來操控，

partly because everybody thought it was ridiculous.

部分是因為每個人 都覺得這個想法很荒謬。

Papers were published

當時發表了很多文章，

about how stupid it was to use fingers.

指出手指操作有多愚蠢。

Three reasons: One was they were low-resolution.

他們列舉了三個原因，首先是解析度低。

The other is your hand would occlude

其次，手會遮擋視線，

what you wanted to see,

讓你看不到細節。

and the third, which was the winner,

最後，他們使出的“殺手鐧”是

was that your fingers would get the screen dirty,

手指會弄髒螢幕。

and hence, fingers would never be

所以，手指絕對不會

a device that you'd use.

成為操作設備。

And this was a device we built in the '70s,

這台裝置誕生於上世紀70年代，

which has never even been picked up.

當時甚至無人問津。

It's not just touch sensitive,

它不僅觸覺敏感，

it's pressure sensitive.

而且壓力敏感。

(Video) Voice: Put a yellow circle there.

（影片）聲音：在那兒畫一個黃色圓圈。

NN: Later work, and again this was before TED 1 —

尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝: 這是後期的工作，同樣發生在 TED 1 之前——

(Video) Voice: Move that west of the diamond.

（影片）聲音：把它移動到菱形的西面。

Create a large green circle there.

在那兒畫一個綠色的大圓圈。

Man: Aw, shit.

影片中的人：喔，該死！

NN: — was to sort of do interface concurrently,

尼可拉斯·尼葛洛龐帝: ——這是在進行同步交互。

so when you talked and you pointed

一邊說話，一邊用手比劃。

and you had, if you will,

只要你願意，

multiple channels.

還可以有多種交互管道。

Entebbe happened.

後來發生了恩德培劫機事件。

1976, Air France was hijacked,

1976年，一架法航客機

taken to Entebbe,

被劫持到恩德培。

and the Israelis not only did an extraordinary rescue,

以色列人完成了出色的營救行動。

they did it partly because they had practiced

他们成功的部分原因是 利用了機場的物理模型，

on a physical model of the airport,

進行過解救人質演練。

because they had built the airport,

因為機場是他們修建的，

so they built a model in the desert,

所以他們在沙漠中製作了一個模型。

and when they arrived at Entebbe,

在到達恩德培之後，

they knew where to go because they had actually been there.

他們知道怎麼走， 因為他們實際上去過那裡。

The U.S. government asked some of us, '76,

1976年，美國政府詢問我們當中的一些人

if we could replicate that computationally,

是否能通過計算機來再現營救過程？

and of course somebody like myself says yes.

當然，我的一位同事說沒問題。

Immediately, you get a contract,

然後，我們立刻得到

Department of Defense,

一份來自國防部的合同。

and we built this truck and this rig.

我們建造了這輛卡車， 還有那個攝像頭裝置，

We did sort of a simulation,

憑藉當時的影像記錄，

because you had video discs,

完成了一次模擬營救。

and again, this is '76.

這同樣發生在1976年。

And then many years later,

經過很多年之後，

you get this truck,

當時的卡車變成了這樣，

and so you have Google Maps.

於是我們有了谷歌地圖。

Still people thought,

當時還是有人執意認為

no, that was not serious computer science,

那不是嚴肅的電腦科學。

and it was a man named Jerry Wiesner,

但有一個人的觀點卻截然相反，

who happened to be the president of MIT,

他就是傑利·威斯納，

who did think it was computer science.

當時恰巧是麻省理工學院 (MIT) 的院長。

And one of the keys for anybody

所以，要想在人生中

who wants to start something in life:

展露鋒芒，有所作為，

Make sure your president is part of it.

一定要拉你的老闆“入夥”。

So when I was doing the Media Lab,

所以我在創建媒體實驗室的時候，

it was like having a gorilla in the front seat.

就像是有個“大佬”在前面罩著。

If you were stopped for speeding

如果你因為超速而被截停，

and the officer looked in the window

警官從車窗看進來，

and saw who was in the passenger seat,

發現副駕駛位置坐著位“大佬”，

then, "Oh, continue on, sir."

他就會說“哦，先生，請繼續上路吧。”

And so we were able,

所以我們當時能夠大展身手。

and this is a cute, actually, device, parenthetically.

這個裝置十分精巧。

This was a lenticular photograph of Jerry Wiesner

這是一張傑利·威斯納的透鏡印刷照片，

where the only thing that changed in the photograph

照片中唯一改變的

were the lips.

就是嘴唇。

So when you oscillated that little piece

當你搖晃那片

of lenticular sheet with his photograph,

帶有照片的透鏡板時，

it would be in lip sync

你會看到照片中的嘴唇

with zero bandwidth.

以零頻寬同步。

It was a zero-bandwidth teleconferencing system

這就是當時的

at the time.

零頻寬遠端會議系統。

So this was the Media Lab's —

這就是媒體實驗室的概念圖，

this is what we said we'd do,

我們當時計畫建設的

that the world of computers, publishing,

集電腦、出版等

and so on would come together.

功能於一身的實驗室。

Again, not generally accepted,

同樣，它沒有得到普遍接受，

but very much part of TED in the early days.

但卻是早期 TED 的一部分。

And this is really where we were headed.

這正是我們追求的目標，

And that created the Media Lab.

引領我們創建了媒體實驗室。

One of the things about age

對於變老的問題，

is that I can tell you with great confidence,

我可以很自信的告訴你們，

I've been to the future.

我確實去過未來，

I've been there, actually, many times.

並且去過那裡不止一次。

And the reason I say that is,

我這麼說的原因是，

how many times in my life have I said,

我這一輩子似乎總在說：

"Oh, in 10 years, this will happen,"

“在未來10年這些都會實現。”

and then 10 years comes.

然後，10年過去了。

And then you say, "Oh, in five years, this will happen."

接著又會說“在未來5年這些都會實現。”

And then five years comes.

然後，5年過去了。

So I say this a little bit with having felt

我在做出這些預測的時候，

that I'd been there a number of times,

多少感覺自己曾經去過未來不止一次。

and one of the things that is most quoted

在我說過的所有預言中，

that I've ever said

被引用最多的就是

is that computing is not about computers,

“計算不再只和電腦有關，它關係到我們的生活。”

and that didn't quite get enough traction,

起初這句話並沒有引起廣泛關注，

and then it started to.

之後慢慢受到重視。

It started to because people caught on

人們開始關注這句話

that the medium wasn't the message.

是因為他們意識到，媒體並不是資訊。

And the reason I show this car

這裡所展示的這輛車，

in actually a rather ugly slide

的確有點土，缺乏美感。

is just again to tell you the kind of story

展示它是因為我想通過它 跟大家再分享一個

that characterized a little bit of my life.

對我的人生多少有點啟發的故事。

This is a student of mine

我有一個博士研究生，

who had done a Ph.D. called "Backseat Driver."

他在全球定位系統GPS發明初期，

It was in the early days of GPS,

設計了一個名為“後座司機”的系統，

the car knew where it was,

能夠為駕駛員提供自動導向，

and it would give audio instructions

還會向駕駛員發出語音指令，

to the driver, when to turn right, when to turn left and so on.

比如，何時右轉，何時左轉。

Turns out, there are a lot of things

結果我們發現，

in those instructions that back in that period

當時設計的指令

were pretty challenging,

有些很難執行。

like what does it mean, take the next right?

比如說 “下一路口右轉”究竟是什麼意思？

Well, if you're coming up on a street,

如果你駕車經過一條街道，

the next right's probably the one after,

下一個右轉可能是下下個路口。

and there are lots of issues,

這裡面包含很多技術難題。

and the student did a wonderful thesis,

這名學生的論文寫得很棒。

and the MIT patent office said "Don't patent it.

但 MIT 專利辦公室卻說“別為它申請專利。

It'll never be accepted.

這肯定行不通。

The liabilities are too large.

責任太大，風險太高。

There will be insurance issues.

還有保險問題。

Don't patent it."

別為它申請專利。”

So we didn't,

所以我們放棄了。

but it shows you how people, again, at times,

這件事再一次表明，

don't really look at what's happening.

人們有時對周邊 正在發生的事情視若無睹。

Some work, and I'll just go through these very quickly,

下面，我準備快速回顧一下 過去的一些研究工作。

a lot of sensory stuff.

這裡有很多感測器元件。

You might recognize a young Yo-Yo Ma

你也許認得出年輕時候的馬友友。

and tracking his body for playing

我們利用感測器元件跟蹤

the cello or the hypercello.

他演奏大提琴時的肢體動作。

These fellows literally walked around like that at the time.

當年，這幫傢夥就穿著這副行頭到處晃悠。

It's now a little bit more discreet

現在稍微有所收斂，

and more commonplace.

並且更司空見慣了。

And then there are at least three heroes

在這裡，至少有三位傳奇人物

I want to quickly mention.

我想跟大家介紹一下。

Marvin Minsky, who taught me a lot

第一位是馬文·明斯基（“人工智慧之父”），

about common sense,

他教會了我很多常識性的東西。

and I will talk briefly about Muriel Cooper,

第二位是穆尼爾·庫伯（MIT出版社藝術總監），

who was very important to Ricky Wurman

他對於理查·沃爾曼（TED創始人）

and to TED, and in fact, when she got onstage,

以及 TED 的發展都至關重要。

she said, the first thing she said was,

當時她走上 TED 講臺，說的第一句話就是

"I introduced Ricky to Nicky."

“我把裡基介紹給了尼基。”

And nobody calls me Nicky

沒人叫我“尼基”，

and nobody calls Richard Ricky,

也沒人稱呼理查“裡基”，

so nobody knew who she was talking about.

所以大家都不知道她在說什麼。

And then, of course, Seymour Papert,

當然，還有西摩•·帕爾特（人工智慧先驅）。

who is the person who said,

他曾經說過這麼一句話：

"You can't think about thinking

“除非你意識到自己在思考，

unless you think about thinking about something."

否則你根本無法思考。”

And that's actually — you can unpack that later.

這句話大家可以稍後解讀，

It's a pretty profound statement.

確實非常深奧。

I'm showing some slides

現在大家看到的是

that were from TED 2,

TED 2 使用的一些幻燈片，

a little silly as slides, perhaps.

也許看上去有點不入潮流。

Then I felt television really was about displays.

那時候，我覺得電視機就是顯示器。

Again, now we're past TED 1,

我們經過了 TED 1，

but just around the time of TED 2,

差不多到了 TED 2 的時代。

and what I'd like to mention here is,

在這裡，我想說的是——

even though you could imagine

即使你能夠想像

intelligence in the device,

設備中使用的智慧技術——

I look today at some of the work

今天，我大致瞭解了一下

being done about the Internet of Things,

最近有關物聯網的研究。

and I think it's kind of tragically pathetic,

我覺得這些研究非常悲哀，

because what has happened is people take

因為現實情況是這樣的：

the oven panel and put it on your cell phone,

有人拿來烤箱控制面板，

or the door key onto your cell phone,

或門鑰匙，然後安裝到你的手機上。

just taking it and bringing it to you,

只是拿過來給你裝上。

and in fact that's actually what you don't want.

但你其實並不需要。

You want to put a chicken in the oven,

你需要的是讓你的烤箱變得智慧化。

and the oven says, "Aha, it's a chicken,"

比方說，你把一隻雞放進烤箱，

and it cooks the chicken.

它就會自動識別出這是一隻雞，

"Oh, it's cooking the chicken for Nicholas,

知道這是為尼可拉斯烹飪的，

and he likes it this way and that way."

知道尼古拉斯喜歡這樣和那樣的烹調方式。

So the intelligence, instead of being in the device,

所以，智慧技術原本並不在設備中。

we have started today

今天我們開始

to move it back onto the cell phone

讓它重新回到手機上，

or closer to the user,

或更接近用戶。

not a particularly enlightened view

這不是有關物聯網

of the Internet of Things.

特別具有啟發性的觀點。

Television, again, television what I said today,

關於電視機，今天我講的是

that was back in 1990,

上世紀90年代的電視機。

and the television of tomorrow

而未來的電視機

would look something like that.

看上去是這樣的。

Again, people, but they laughed cynically,

又有人發出冷笑，

they didn't laugh with much appreciation.

他們的笑聲沒有流露出讚賞之情。

Telecommunications in the 1990s,

上世紀90年代的電信業，

George Gilder decided that he would call this diagram