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  • I still remember the day in school

    我還記得以前在學校時,

  • when our teacher told us

    當老師告訴我們

  • that the world population had become

    世界人口已達

  • three billion people,

    三十億人的時候,

  • and that was in 1960.

    那年是 1960 年。

  • I'm going to talk now about

    我現在想談論的是

  • how world population has changed from that year

    自從那年後,世界人口是如何改變了,

  • and into the future,

    未來又將如何?

  • but I will not use digital technology,

    但這次我不用數位科技

  • as I've done during my first five TEDTalks.

    因為在前五場的 TEDTalks,我已用了好幾次

  • Instead, I have progressed,

    相反地,這次我進步了

  • and I am, today, launching

    今天,我要展開一項

  • a brand new analog teaching technology

    全新的類比教學技術,

  • that I picked up from IKEA:

    一個我從 IKEA 取得的科技產品:

  • this box.

    就是這個箱子。

  • This box contains one billion people.

    這箱子藏有十億人。

  • And our teacher told us

    我們以前的老師告訴我們,

  • that the industrialized world, 1960,

    1960 年時,在工業國家裡

  • had one billion people.

    共有十億人口。

  • In the developing world, she said,

    她說,在發展中國家

  • they had two billion people.

    有二十億人。

  • And they lived away then.

    而他們的生活遠遠不及工業化國家。

  • There was a big gap between

    在他們之中,隔著一個巨大鴻溝

  • the one billion in the industrialized world

    十億人住在工業化的世界裡,

  • and the two billion in the developing world.

    另外二十億人住在開發中國家。

  • In the industrialized world,

    在工業化世界裡,

  • people were healthy,

    人們身體健康、

  • educated, rich,

    教育良好、生活富裕、

  • and they had small families.

    也擁有小家庭。

  • And their aspiration

    他們的志願是

  • was to buy a car.

    買一輛車。

  • And in 1960, all Swedes were saving

    1960 年時, 每個瑞典人都會存錢

  • to try to buy a Volvo like this.

    買一輛 Volvo,像這個

  • This was the economic level at which Sweden was.

    這是當時瑞典的經濟水準

  • But in contrast to this,

    但相反地,

  • in the developing world, far away,

    開發中國家卻遠不及此,

  • the aspiration of the average family there

    在那裡,一般家庭的志願是

  • was to have food for the day.

    求一頓安飽就好

  • They were saving

    他們存錢

  • to be able to buy a pair of shoes.

    是爲了能夠買一雙鞋

  • There was an enormous gap in the world

    當時世界存在一個巨大鴻溝。

  • when I grew up.

    當我還小的時候

  • And this gap between the West and the rest

    這個介於西方國家和其他地區的鴻溝

  • has created a mindset of the world,

    創造了一種世界心態

  • which we still use linguistically

    這個心態反應在,我們仍然在語言上

  • when we talk about "the West"

    使用「西方國家」

  • and "the Developing World."

    與「發展中國家」等詞彙。

  • But the world has changed,

    但這個世界已經改變了,

  • and it's overdue to upgrade that mindset

    心態卻沒有更新

  • and that taxonomy of the world, and to understand it.

    分類世界的方法也停留在過去,沒有人好好地理解

  • And that's what I'm going to show you,

    這就是我要向各位展示的東西

  • because since 1960

    因為,自從 1960 年開始,

  • what has happened in the world up to 2010

    一直到 2010 年以來,在這個世界上所發生的是

  • is that a staggering

    一個驚人的

  • four billion people

    四十億人口

  • have been added to the world population.

    加入了世界

  • Just look how many.

    看看數據就可以明白

  • The world population has doubled

    自從我上學後,

  • since I went to school.

    全球人口翻了兩倍。

  • And of course, there's been economic growth in the West.

    當然,西方國家的經濟有所成長

  • A lot of companies have happened to grow the economy,

    許多企業提振了經濟,

  • so the Western population moved over to here.

    於是,西方國家的人口也移到這裡

  • And now their aspiration is not only to have a car.

    現在,他們的志願已經不再只是一輛車了

  • Now they want to have a holiday on a very remote destination

    現在他們要的是長途旅行

  • and they want to fly.

    他們想坐飛機

  • So this is where they are today.

    所以這是他們今天所在之處

  • And the most successful of the developing countries,

    而在這裡,最成功的發展中國家

  • they have moved on, you know,

    也進步了,

  • and they have become emerging economies, we call them.

    他們成為新興國家

  • They are now buying cars.

    現在他們開始買起車子。

  • And what happened a month ago

    就在一個月前

  • was that the Chinese company, Geely,

    一家中國企業——吉利汽車

  • they acquired the Volvo company,

    買下了 Volvo

  • and then finally the Swedes understood that

    於是瑞典人終於明白

  • something big had happened in the world.

    有什麽大事發生了。

  • (Laughter)

    (笑聲)

  • So there they are.

    就是這樣

  • And the tragedy is that the two billion over here

    但悲傷的是,這裡的二十億人

  • that is struggling for food and shoes,

    爲了食物和鞋子掙扎奮鬥的人們,

  • they are still almost as poor

    依然和五十年前一樣

  • as they were 50 years ago.

    貧窮

  • The new thing is that

    新的不同之處是

  • we have the biggest pile of billions, the three billions here,

    在這,有一群很大的有三十億人口,

  • which are also becoming emerging economies,

    成為新興國家經濟的一員,

  • because they are quite healthy, relatively well-educated,

    因為他們相當健康、受過相對良好的教育、

  • and they already also have two to three children

    平均每個婦女

  • per woman, as those [richer also] have.

    也有兩到三個孩子了

  • And their aspiration now

    而現在他們的志願

  • is, of course, to buy a bicycle,

    當然是買台腳踏車,

  • and then later on they would like to have a motorbike also.

    在過不久,他們也許會想買一台摩托車

  • But this is the world

    這就是我們現今

  • we have today,

    所處的世界,

  • no longer any gap.

    再也沒有鴻溝了。

  • But the distance from the poorest here, the very poorest,

    但是,窮人和有錢人

  • to the very richest over here is wider than ever.

    之間的距離卻比以往還要大了

  • But there is a continuous world

    這裡有個持續演變的世界

  • from walking, biking,

    從步行,腳踏車,

  • driving, flying --

    開車,到坐飛機——

  • there are people on all levels,

    包含各階段的人

  • and most people tend to be somewhere in the middle.

    但大多數人存在於中間某處

  • This is the new world we have today

    這就是我們今日所處的世界

  • in 2010.

    在 2010 年。

  • And what will happen in the future?

    那麼,未來會發生什麽事呢?

  • Well, I'm going to project

    我將會預測

  • into 2050.

    2050 年的世界。

  • I was in Shanghai recently,

    最近我去了上海一趟,

  • and I listened to what's happening in China,

    我聽到在中國發生的事。

  • and it's pretty sure that they will catch up,

    我確信他們會迅速追上,

  • just as Japan did.

    就像日本一樣

  • All the projections [say that] this one [billion] will [only] grow with

    所有的預測——這一區的人口會成長

  • one to two or three percent.

    1%到3%

  • [But this second] grows with seven, eight percent, and then they will end up here.

    這一區會增長7%、8%,然後停留在這裡,

  • They will start flying.

    他們會開始起飛

  • And these

    而這些

  • lower or middle income countries, the emerging income countries,

    中低收入國家,也就是新興國家,

  • they will also forge forwards economically.

    也會在經濟上往前進

  • And if,

    而且,

  • but only if,

    只有在

  • we invest in the right green technology --

    我們正確地投資綠色科技的前提下——

  • so that we can avoid severe climate change,

    我們才能避免嚴重的氣候變遷問題,

  • and energy can still be relatively cheap --

    能源也可以維持便宜的價格——

  • then they will move all the way up here.

    然後,他們才得以進一步移到這裡

  • And they will start to buy

    接著,他們會開始買

  • electric cars.

    電動車。

  • This is what we will find there.

    這是我們目前所發現的情況

  • So what about the poorest two billion?

    那麼,關於那些最貧窮的二十億人口...

  • What about the poorest two billion here?

    那些最貧窮的二十億人口將會如何呢?

  • Will they move on?

    他們會往前進嗎?

  • Well, here population [growth] comes in

    嗯,這裡加入了新的人口,

  • because there [among emerging economies] we already have two to three children per woman,

    在那兒,平均每個女人已經擁有兩、到三個孩子,

  • family planning is widely used,

    在生育計劃的實施下,

  • and population growth is coming to an end.

    人口成長即將告一段落

  • Here [among the poorest], population is growing.

    在這裡,人口正在增加,

  • So these [poorest] two billion will, in the next decades,

    所以,在接下來的二十年中,這二十億人

  • increase to three billion,

    會增加到三十億

  • and they will thereafter

    此後,他們又將

  • increase to four billion.

    成長到四十億

  • There is nothing --

    除了核戰之外

  • but a nuclear war of a kind we've never seen --

    沒有其他東西能夠

  • that can stop this [growth] from happening.

    阻止他們人口繼續成長

  • Because we already have this [growth] in process.

    因為這情況已經正在發生

  • But if, and only if,

    只有在,

  • [the poorest] get out of poverty,

    他們脫離貧窮的情況下,

  • they get education, they get improved child survival,

    像是受教育、改善兒童存活率等,

  • they can buy a bicycle and a cell phone and come [to live] here,

    他們才可以買腳踏車、手機,並且來到這,

  • then population growth

    於是人口的成長

  • will stop in 2050.

    才可以在 2050 年時停頓下來。

  • We cannot have people on this level

    不能有人留在這個階段

  • looking for food and shoes

    找食物、找鞋子,

  • because then we get continued population growth.

    因為如此一來,人口成長將持續擴大。

  • And let me show you why

    讓我透過

  • by converting back to the old-time

    以往的數位科技

  • digital technology.

    告訴你爲什麽

  • Here I have on the screen

    在螢幕上,我有

  • my country bubbles.

    國家泡泡

  • Every bubble is a country. The size is population.

    每個泡泡代表國家,尺寸代表人口數量,

  • The colors show the continent.

    顏色代表不同的大陸區塊

  • The yellow on there is the Americas;

    在那兒,黃色是美洲;

  • dark blue is Africa; brown is Europe;

    深藍色是非洲;棕色是歐洲;

  • green is the Middle East

    綠色是中東;

  • and this light blue is South Asia.

    淺藍色是南亞

  • That's India and this is China. Size is population.

    那是印度,這是中國。大小代表人口數量

  • Here I have children per woman:

    這裡是 每個女人的小孩數目,

  • two children, four children, six children, eight children --

    兩個孩子、四個孩子、六個孩子、八個孩子——

  • big families, small families.

    大家庭、小家庭

  • The year is 1960.

    這是 1960 年

  • And down here, child survival,

    下面這裡是兒童的存活率,

  • the percentage of children surviving childhood

    自孩提時期一直到上學為止

  • up to starting school:

    兒童存活的百分比率

  • 60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90,

    60%、70%、80%、90%

  • and almost 100 percent, as we have today

    接近100%,如同我們今天