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  • Hello, welcome back to the Note. Well, after a relatively calm week by recent standards,

    嗨,歡迎回到財經專欄。根據最近指數,在度過相對穩平穩的一週後

  • We can at least I think say one thing which is the market is now thoroughly prepared for a rate rise from the Feds next month.

    至少可以看出,為迎接下個月聯準會的升息,市場目前做好了充足的準備

  • And its attitude in turn means that it becomes that much easier for the Feds to go through with raising rates

    這一轉變顯示出聯準會的升息之舉將會變得更順利

  • as it plan it wants to do. What we're looking at here is the yields on the two-year Treasury bonds.

    和計畫中他們想做的事相符。我們來看看兩年期國債上的收益

  • Obviously, two-year yields are extremely closely linked to the near-term future for interest rates.

    很顯然,兩年期的國債收益收益和不久後的利率有相當緊密的關聯

  • And you can see that it hits a new five-year high today. Plainly, people are prepared for an interest rate rise

    可以看到今天的數據創五年來的新高。清楚指出人們對升息一事已做好準備

  • very soon in a way that haven't been throughout the great loan era of QE that is followed the crisis.

    很快地在尚未過完整個量化寬鬆貸款期,危機緊接著跟來

  • Now if you take a look at other markets, the US stock market is hovering very close to its heights as it appears back in positive territory of the year.

    觀望其他市場,美國股票市場正盤旋在非常接近頂端之處,顯示今年好轉的現象

  • If you take a look at foreign exchange of emerging markets, it's a critical reason why the Feds stayed its hands early this year.

    再觀察新興市場的外幣兌換,這是聯準會於年初時決定不改變現況的重要原因

  • Those are at least stable and above their lows from earlier this year. That doesn't seem to be any great weight

    至少這些都還算穩定,比起今年初的不穩都還要好。而這似乎沒有起多大作用

  • pushing in the market towards the Fed from rising rate as it wants to do.

    關於推動市場朝向聯準會升息一事而言

  • Now that's positive because there're other reasons for great concern about the US stock market.

    這是助力,因為有其他原因會影響美國股票市場

  • It is very narrow. If we take a look at this next chart, which compares the Russell Top 50, in that it says

    相當狹隘。來看看這張圖表,與羅素50指數做比較,指出

  • that's the 50 biggest companies in the US by market cap. Compared to the Russell 2000 in next smaller companies,

    以市場資本列出的全美前50大公司。與羅素2000指數列出較小型的公司相比

  • you can see that's during most of the big rally following the crisis, smaller companies emphatically outperformed what you would expect.

    可以看到在危機發生後,恢復狀況最好的明顯是那些較小型的公司,比預期的還要好

  • That is firmly in reverse now. The Mega-Caps are outperforming, that is generally a sign

    現在則是相反。超級大資本公司表現更為出色,普遍來說這代表

  • either that's a bull market that's coming to an end, or indeed that the bear market is effectively already on the way.

    如果不是多頭市場即將結束,就是空頭市場已經逐漸有效地蓬勃

  • The advance is very narrow at this point, it's limited to a few very big companies.

    就目前來說要再往上升是相當有限,只有少數非常大型的公司而已

  • Indeed, all of the advance in the S&P for this year can be counted for simply by Amazon and the Alphabet stocks that underpinned google.

    實際上,今年標準普爾指數的增長可以僅僅算入亞馬遜和 Alphabet股票,這是 Google旗下的控股公司

  • Just take away Amazon and Google, and the rest of S&P is utterly flat for the year.

    排除亞馬遜和 Google,今年其餘的標準普爾指數表現相當平淡

  • So, as we enter a week when the American will be giving thanks, I think the bottom line is that we can be thankful

    再過一週就是美國感恩節,重點要感謝

  • that we do appear, at last, ready to bring an end to the era of lower rates.

    在最後,我們都能做好準備,將長期的低利率畫上句號

  • But we also need to be a little fearful that the stock market appears ready to roll over into a bear market.

    但也要有點警戒,因為股市顯現將邁入空頭市場

Hello, welcome back to the Note. Well, after a relatively calm week by recent standards,

嗨,歡迎回到財經專欄。根據最近指數,在度過相對穩平穩的一週後

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巨型蓋帽的力量重新喚醒|作者簡介 (Mega caps the force reawakens | Authers' Note)

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    Kristi Yang 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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