We can at least I think say one thing which is the market is now thoroughly prepared for a rate rise from the Feds next month.

至少可以看出，為迎接下個月聯準會的升息，市場目前做好了充足的準備

And its attitude in turn means that it becomes that much easier for the Feds to go through with raising rates

這一轉變顯示出聯準會的升息之舉將會變得更順利

as it plan it wants to do. What we're looking at here is the yields on the two-year Treasury bonds.

和計畫中他們想做的事相符。我們來看看兩年期國債上的收益

Obviously, two-year yields are extremely closely linked to the near-term future for interest rates.

很顯然，兩年期的國債收益收益和不久後的利率有相當緊密的關聯

And you can see that it hits a new five-year high today. Plainly, people are prepared for an interest rate rise

可以看到今天的數據創五年來的新高。清楚指出人們對升息一事已做好準備

very soon in a way that haven't been throughout the great loan era of QE that is followed the crisis.

很快地在尚未過完整個量化寬鬆貸款期，危機緊接著跟來

Now if you take a look at other markets, the US stock market is hovering very close to its heights as it appears back in positive territory of the year.

觀望其他市場，美國股票市場正盤旋在非常接近頂端之處，顯示今年好轉的現象

If you take a look at foreign exchange of emerging markets, it's a critical reason why the Feds stayed its hands early this year.

再觀察新興市場的外幣兌換，這是聯準會於年初時決定不改變現況的重要原因

Those are at least stable and above their lows from earlier this year. That doesn't seem to be any great weight

至少這些都還算穩定，比起今年初的不穩都還要好。而這似乎沒有起多大作用

pushing in the market towards the Fed from rising rate as it wants to do.

關於推動市場朝向聯準會升息一事而言

Now that's positive because there're other reasons for great concern about the US stock market.

這是助力，因為有其他原因會影響美國股票市場

It is very narrow. If we take a look at this next chart, which compares the Russell Top 50, in that it says

相當狹隘。來看看這張圖表，與羅素50指數做比較，指出

that's the 50 biggest companies in the US by market cap. Compared to the Russell 2000 in next smaller companies,

以市場資本列出的全美前50大公司。與羅素2000指數列出較小型的公司相比

you can see that's during most of the big rally following the crisis, smaller companies emphatically outperformed what you would expect.

可以看到在危機發生後，恢復狀況最好的明顯是那些較小型的公司，比預期的還要好

That is firmly in reverse now. The Mega-Caps are outperforming, that is generally a sign

現在則是相反。超級大資本公司表現更為出色，普遍來說這代表

either that's a bull market that's coming to an end, or indeed that the bear market is effectively already on the way.

如果不是多頭市場即將結束，就是空頭市場已經逐漸有效地蓬勃

The advance is very narrow at this point, it's limited to a few very big companies.

就目前來說要再往上升是相當有限，只有少數非常大型的公司而已

Indeed, all of the advance in the S&P for this year can be counted for simply by Amazon and the Alphabet stocks that underpinned google.

實際上，今年標準普爾指數的增長可以僅僅算入亞馬遜和 Alphabet股票，這是 Google旗下的控股公司

Just take away Amazon and Google, and the rest of S&P is utterly flat for the year.

排除亞馬遜和 Google，今年其餘的標準普爾指數表現相當平淡

So, as we enter a week when the American will be giving thanks, I think the bottom line is that we can be thankful

再過一週就是美國感恩節，重點要感謝

that we do appear, at last, ready to bring an end to the era of lower rates.

在最後，我們都能做好準備，將長期的低利率畫上句號

But we also need to be a little fearful that the stock market appears ready to roll over into a bear market.

但也要有點警戒，因為股市顯現將邁入空頭市場