Name: 不道德的市場一短視 (Amoral markets I Short View)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T05:49:58.000Z
Duration: 4 min 38 s

基礎被動語態

Markets are often accused by those on the left of being immoral.

左派的人常抨擊金融市場相當不道德。

The reaction to the tax in Paris seems to give this the lie,

但人們對於巴黎稅率的反應似乎否定了這一點。

to what some of called a "patriotic rally" kicking in to lift shares well above where they stood before ISIS killed 129 people on Friday.

所謂的「愛國行情」介入，將股價炒到比 ISIS 在本周五殺死 129 人之前更高的水平。

Equity markets are showing little in the way of patriotism in fact though,

但事實上，金融市場並沒有反映出多少愛國行情，

if they were, the shares to buy to express solidarity with the City of Light,

如果真要表達對於巴黎的團結一心，

would be those most exposed to an intensified French terror threat: Aéroports de Paris and Air France-KLM.

應該買進的股票也是那些最受恐怖攻擊威脅的公司，例如法國巴黎機場與法荷航集團。

Instead, markets are doing their usual job as amoral weighers of likely outcomes.

相反地，金融市場一直都是一個非關道德的天平，衡量著所有可能的結果。

Both companies saw their shares hard hit on Monday rebounded by less than the market today.

這兩間公司都看見他們原本在星期一重挫的股價，在今天反彈得比整體市場還來得少。

Investors have concluded that extra security checks,

投資人一致認為，額外的安全檢查

the fear of further attacks somewhat reduces the prospects for French tourism, particularly by air.

以及對於日後可能發生恐怖攻擊的憂懼，多少會減低法國旅遊業的前景，尤其是航空業。

Other European hotel in whole, their stocks have also been hurt, particularly France's Accor.

歐洲其他的旅館業的股價也受到影響，其中以法國雅高集團為甚。

For the amoral processes of the market, have on the other hand, pushed up the price of defense companies.

金融市場非關道德的運作方式，在另一方面也衝高了軍工製造商的股價。

Demand for heavy weapons to bombard the ISIS help parts of Syria will surely rise, but so too will other aspects of defense.

用以轟炸伊斯蘭國的重型武器的需求，的確會解救一部分的敘利亞國土，但國防的其他層面也會上揚。

Even the supposedly cash-strapped UK government already digging deep

甚至本來應該經濟拮据的英國政府

to find two billion pounds for extra equipment for the SAS and the resources to hire another 1,900 spies.

都已經掏出 20 億英鎊為空降特勤隊添置新的設備，並且雇用 1900 名新的間諜。

French defense and aerospace company Thales was picked immediately as an obvious winner.

法國的軍事暨航太公司達利斯集團，馬上就被認為是這次事件的最大贏家。

如你所見，就是最上面這一條線。

With both drones and cybersecurity featuring among its products.

達利斯以無人飛行載具及網路安全為其最主要的產品。

As well as the division of the spoils, investors also need to consider the possible overall effect on the economy.

除了這些個別的股票之外，投資者也需要考量這次事件對於大盤可能的影響。

Attacks have already sparked political backlash across Europe and even bizarrely among republicans in the US.

這次的恐攻已經激起全歐洲的政治反彈，甚至相當弔詭地掃到美國的共和黨。

More obviously relevant though, the insistence by president Hollande

更明顯相關的是，奧蘭德總統堅持

to the need for extra spending on state security trumps European austerity demands, sort of illiberal Keynesian stimulus.

要添列更多國防支出，這卻和歐洲目前的撙節政策相悖，因為它某種程度上屬於不自由的凱恩斯式刺激。

Overall though, the market reactions being relatively subdued.

整體來說，整個金融市場是較在掌控之中的。

You can see some of that, there were these sharp drops in Aéroports de Paris, that's the red line,

你可以看到法國巴黎機場的股市有明顯的下滑，就是那條紅色的線，

Relativity overall market, that's the French market here in blue,

相對的是整個法國的金融市場，是這條藍色的線，

and you can see, well as there were quite big drops on the day,

你可以發現，雖然在恐攻那天有明顯的下跌，

they're really not particularly out of line with the sorts of things that we've seen earlier this year,

但和我們今年稍早看過的情況相比，並沒有特別失去控制，

and in fact, far less important than what had been going on in the broader market.

然後事實上，跟大盤的走勢相比，影響也是較輕微的。

We can compare here what happened after the September 11th attacks in 2001.

我們可以和 2001 年 911 事件之後的股市做個比較。

The US airlines plunged by a third, that's the airline sector there,

全美航空重挫三分之一，也就是這邊這一條，

and S&P 500 airlines, the blue line shows S&P 500 as a whole,

這條藍色線則顯示了 S&P 500 的整體走向，

and Northrop Grumman, there, jumped by a third.

還有這裡的諾斯洛普．格拉曼，上漲了三分之一。

I picked that just as a sample defense stock, but it was one among many to benefit.

我之所以選它，只是作為一個軍工製造商股票的例子，但它只是眾多獲利者的其中一支。

Now, this isn't about markets putting a different value on French versus American lives,

這樣的比較並不是將法國與美國人的性命另眼相待，

there were after all, twenty times as many casualties in 2001.

在 2001 年的事件中，畢竟有 20 倍於巴黎的傷亡。

Market does of course, put much higher value on both French and American lives compared to Syrian lives,

金融市場的確更重視法國與美國人更甚於敘利亞人的生命，

where as many people that has died in Paris died pretty much every day unnoticed by investors.

敘利亞幾乎每天都有和此次巴黎恐攻死亡人數般眾多的人民罹難，但投資者們卻一點也沒有察覺。

They don't spend much, so really don't matter to global stock markets.

這些人民花費的並不多，所以對於全球股市確實不會有多大影響。

Really, smaller reaction in Europe than in the US,

的確，比起在美國，歐洲的反應較小，

flex the fact that what happened doesn't appear to be a major turning point, unlike 2001.

代表了這次的恐攻和 2001 年的事件不同，它並不是一個巨大的轉捩點。

France and its European allies, they spent a little more on defense.

法國及其歐洲的盟友花費較多的金錢在國防上。

And they may pummel ISIS controlled areas of Syria a little harder.

然後他們可能會比較猛烈的轟炸由伊斯蘭國所控制的敘利亞地區。

European Central Bank might be somewhat more willing to ease monetary policy again at next month's meeting.

歐洲央行可能會在下個月的會議中更傾向放寬貨幣政策。

While a specifics of Friday night's tragic attacks were shocking, more terror attacks in Europe were widely expected.

儘管在星期五晚間喪生的確切人數令人吃驚，但外界普遍預期歐洲會發生更多恐怖攻擊事件。

And almost certainly be more to come too, for all the spending by governments.

而且因為政府日益上升的支出，這幾乎已成定局了。

For the moment, investors are betting that Parisians and the rest of the continent will carry on with their lives,

此刻，投資人們正打賭巴黎人乃至整個法國都可以平安無事，

and there'll be little lasting effect on most companies' costs, revenues or profits.

並希望這次的恐怖攻擊盡可能不要影響大部分企業的支出、存底或利潤。

And this might of course turn out not to be correct, but it's amoral not immoral.

這可能是件不對的事，但我們應該說它是「非道德」而不是「不道德」。