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  • Markets are often accused by those on the left of being immoral.

    左派的人常抨擊金融市場相當不道德。

  • The reaction to the tax in Paris seems to give this the lie,

    但人們對於巴黎稅率的反應似乎否定了這一點。

  • to what some of called a "patriotic rally" kicking in to lift shares well above where they stood before ISIS killed 129 people on Friday.

    所謂的「愛國行情」介入,將股價炒到比 ISIS 在本周五殺死 129 人之前更高的水平。

  • Equity markets are showing little in the way of patriotism in fact though,

    但事實上,金融市場並沒有反映出多少愛國行情,

  • if they were, the shares to buy to express solidarity with the City of Light,

    如果真要表達對於巴黎的團結一心,

  • would be those most exposed to an intensified French terror threat: Aéroports de Paris and Air France-KLM.

    應該買進的股票也是那些最受恐怖攻擊威脅的公司,例如法國巴黎機場與法荷航集團。

  • Instead, markets are doing their usual job as amoral weighers of likely outcomes.

    相反地,金融市場一直都是一個非關道德的天平,衡量著所有可能的結果。

  • Both companies saw their shares hard hit on Monday rebounded by less than the market today.

    這兩間公司都看見他們原本在星期一重挫的股價,在今天反彈得比整體市場還來得少。

  • Investors have concluded that extra security checks,

    投資人一致認為,額外的安全檢查

  • the fear of further attacks somewhat reduces the prospects for French tourism, particularly by air.

    以及對於日後可能發生恐怖攻擊的憂懼,多少會減低法國旅遊業的前景,尤其是航空業。

  • Other European hotel in whole, their stocks have also been hurt, particularly France's Accor.

    歐洲其他的旅館業的股價也受到影響,其中以法國雅高集團為甚。

  • For the amoral processes of the market, have on the other hand, pushed up the price of defense companies.

    金融市場非關道德的運作方式,在另一方面也衝高了軍工製造商的股價。

  • Demand for heavy weapons to bombard the ISIS help parts of Syria will surely rise, but so too will other aspects of defense.

    用以轟炸伊斯蘭國的重型武器的需求,的確會解救一部分的敘利亞國土,但國防的其他層面也會上揚。

  • Even the supposedly cash-strapped UK government already digging deep

    甚至本來應該經濟拮据的英國政府

  • to find two billion pounds for extra equipment for the SAS and the resources to hire another 1,900 spies.

    都已經掏出 20 億英鎊為空降特勤隊添置新的設備,並且雇用 1900 名新的間諜。

  • French defense and aerospace company Thales was picked immediately as an obvious winner.

    法國的軍事暨航太公司達利斯集團,馬上就被認為是這次事件的最大贏家。

  • You can see that, up at the top here.

    如你所見,就是最上面這一條線。

  • With both drones and cybersecurity featuring among its products.

    達利斯以無人飛行載具及網路安全為其最主要的產品。

  • As well as the division of the spoils, investors also need to consider the possible overall effect on the economy.

    除了這些個別的股票之外,投資者也需要考量這次事件對於大盤可能的影響。

  • Attacks have already sparked political backlash across Europe and even bizarrely among republicans in the US.

    這次的恐攻已經激起全歐洲的政治反彈,甚至相當弔詭地掃到美國的共和黨。

  • More obviously relevant though, the insistence by president Hollande

    更明顯相關的是,奧蘭德總統堅持

  • to the need for extra spending on state security trumps European austerity demands, sort of illiberal Keynesian stimulus.

    要添列更多國防支出,這卻和歐洲目前的撙節政策相悖,因為它某種程度上屬於不自由的凱恩斯式刺激。

  • Overall though, the market reactions being relatively subdued.

    整體來說,整個金融市場是較在掌控之中的。

  • You can see some of that, there were these sharp drops inroports de Paris, that's the red line,

    你可以看到法國巴黎機場的股市有明顯的下滑,就是那條紅色的線,

  • and in Air France, the green line.

    然後是法荷航,是那條綠線。

  • Relativity overall market, that's the French market here in blue,

    相對的是整個法國的金融市場,是這條藍色的線,

  • and you can see, well as there were quite big drops on the day,

    你可以發現,雖然在恐攻那天有明顯的下跌,

  • they're really not particularly out of line with the sorts of things that we've seen earlier this year,

    但和我們今年稍早看過的情況相比,並沒有特別失去控制,

  • and in fact, far less important than what had been going on in the broader market.

    然後事實上,跟大盤的走勢相比,影響也是較輕微的。

  • We can compare here what happened after the September 11th attacks in 2001.

    我們可以和 2001 年 911 事件之後的股市做個比較。

  • The US airlines plunged by a third, that's the airline sector there,

    全美航空重挫三分之一,也就是這邊這一條,

  • and S&P 500 airlines, the blue line shows S&P 500 as a whole,

    這條藍色線則顯示了 S&P 500 的整體走向,

  • and Northrop Grumman, there, jumped by a third.

    還有這裡的諾斯洛普.格拉曼,上漲了三分之一。

  • I picked that just as a sample defense stock, but it was one among many to benefit.

    我之所以選它,只是作為一個軍工製造商股票的例子,但它只是眾多獲利者的其中一支。

  • Now, this isn't about markets putting a different value on French versus American lives,

    這樣的比較並不是將法國與美國人的性命另眼相待,

  • there were after all, twenty times as many casualties in 2001.

    在 2001 年的事件中,畢竟有 20 倍於巴黎的傷亡。

  • Market does of course, put much higher value on both French and American lives compared to Syrian lives,

    金融市場的確更重視法國與美國人更甚於敘利亞人的生命,

  • where as many people that has died in Paris died pretty much every day unnoticed by investors.

    敘利亞幾乎每天都有和此次巴黎恐攻死亡人數般眾多的人民罹難,但投資者們卻一點也沒有察覺。

  • They don't spend much, so really don't matter to global stock markets.

    這些人民花費的並不多,所以對於全球股市確實不會有多大影響。

  • Really, smaller reaction in Europe than in the US,

    的確,比起在美國,歐洲的反應較小,

  • flex the fact that what happened doesn't appear to be a major turning point, unlike 2001.

    代表了這次的恐攻和 2001 年的事件不同,它並不是一個巨大的轉捩點。

  • France and its European allies, they spent a little more on defense.

    法國及其歐洲的盟友花費較多的金錢在國防上。

  • And they may pummel ISIS controlled areas of Syria a little harder.

    然後他們可能會比較猛烈的轟炸由伊斯蘭國所控制的敘利亞地區。

  • European Central Bank might be somewhat more willing to ease monetary policy again at next month's meeting.

    歐洲央行可能會在下個月的會議中更傾向放寬貨幣政策。

  • While a specifics of Friday night's tragic attacks were shocking, more terror attacks in Europe were widely expected.

    儘管在星期五晚間喪生的確切人數令人吃驚,但外界普遍預期歐洲會發生更多恐怖攻擊事件。

  • And almost certainly be more to come too, for all the spending by governments.

    而且因為政府日益上升的支出,這幾乎已成定局了。

  • For the moment, investors are betting that Parisians and the rest of the continent will carry on with their lives,

    此刻,投資人們正打賭巴黎人乃至整個法國都可以平安無事,

  • and there'll be little lasting effect on most companies' costs, revenues or profits.

    並希望這次的恐怖攻擊盡可能不要影響大部分企業的支出、存底或利潤。

  • And this might of course turn out not to be correct, but it's amoral not immoral.

    這可能是件不對的事,但我們應該說它是「非道德」而不是「不道德」。

Markets are often accused by those on the left of being immoral.

左派的人常抨擊金融市場相當不道德。

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不道德的市場一短視 (Amoral markets I Short View)

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    Kristi Yang 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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