I've been studying non-state armed groups:

我一直在研究非政府武裝組織。

armed organizations like terrorists, insurgents or militias.

例如恐怖組織、叛亂者，或是民兵組織。

I document what these groups do when they're not shooting.

我記錄他們在非戰爭情況中都在做些什麼，

My goal is to better understand these violent actors

我的目的是為了更好的理解這些暴力者

and to study ways to encourage transition from violent engagement

並且研究如何促使暴力行為

to nonviolent confrontation.

轉變為非暴力對抗。

I work in the field, in the policy world and in the library.

我在現場、政策層面及圖書館內開展研究。

Understanding non-state armed groups is key to solving most ongoing conflict,

因為戰爭的改變， 解決很多現有衝突的關鍵

because war has changed.

是理解非國家武裝組織

It used to be a contest between states.

曾經，戰爭是國家之間的比賽。

No longer.

然而現在不是了。

It is now a conflict between states and non-state actors.

如今，戰爭演變成了國家 和非國家組織之間的鬥爭。

For example, of the 216 peace agreements

比如，在1975年到2011年之間簽署的

signed between 1975 and 2011,

216項和平條約中,

196 of them were between a state and a non-state actor.

有196項是有關於 國家與非國家組織之間的矛盾。

So we need to understand these groups; we need to either engage them

因此我們需要了解這些組織

or defeat them in any conflict resolution process that has to be successful.

通過在衝突解決過程中與他們的溝通 甚至是有效的打敗他們

So how do we do that?

那麼，我們要如何做到呢？

We need to know what makes these organizations tick.

我們需要知道這些組織為什麼會採取武裝行動

We know a lot about how they fight, why they fight,

我們可以了解到他們為何戰鬥、如何戰鬥

but no one looks at what they're doing when they're not fighting.

但是沒有人注意到當他們不再戰鬥時， 他們在做些什麼，

Yet, armed struggle and unarmed politics are related.

然而，武裝鬥爭和非武裝政治是相互關聯的。

It is all part of the same organization.

它們存在於同一個組織中

We cannot understand these groups, let alone defeat them,

如果我們不了解全局， 我們將不會了解這些組織

if we don't have the full picture.

無法擊敗他們。

And armed groups today are complex organizations.

在如今，武裝組織是非常複雜的組織

Take the Lebanese Hezbollah,

以黎巴嫩真主黨為例，

known for its violent confrontation against Israel.

它以對以色列的暴力抗爭而被大家熟知

But since its creation in the early 1980s,

但是，從真主黨在十九世紀八十年代成立以來

Hezbollah has also set up a political party,

它也組建了政治集團、

a social-service network, and a military apparatus.

社工服務機構和軍事組織。

Similarly, the Palestinian Hamas,

再例如，巴勒斯坦的伊斯蘭抵抗運動

known for its suicide attacks against Israel,

以自殺式行為對抗以色列而出名，

also runs the Gaza Strip since 2007.

同樣從2007年就開始控制加薩地帶。

So these groups do way more than just shoot.

因此，這些組織不僅僅進行暴力襲擊，

They multi-task.

他們完成多個任務。

They set up complex communication machines --

他們建立複雜的媒體設備，

radio stations, TV channels,

比如電臺廣播、電視台、

Internet websites and social media strategies.

網站和社交媒體策略。

And up here, you have the ISIS magazine,

在那裏，你可以讀到ISIS雜誌

printed in English and published to recruit.

甚至是紙質英文版本，有利於招募新成員。

Armed groups also invest in complex fund-raising --

武裝組織同樣可以投資於 複雜的資金籌集專案，

not looting, but setting up profitable businesses;

不再需要以打劫的方式獲取資源， 而是通過創立盈利性質的公司來籌錢，

for example, construction companies.

比如，建築公司。

Now, these activities are keys.

目前，這些活動纔是這些武裝組織的關鍵

They allow these groups to increase their strength,

他們使得武裝組織增強他們的力量

increase their funds,

籌集到更多的資金

to better recruit and to build their brand.

以便於更好的招募新成員， 並且建立自己的品牌

Armed groups also do something else:

同時，他們還做其他的事情，

they build stronger bonds with the population

他們通過積极參與社會活動

by investing in social services.

促進與大眾的感情，

They build schools, they run hospitals,

他們開辦學校、建立醫院、

they set up vocational-training programs or micro-loan programs.

開展職業培訓計劃，和小額貸款計劃。

Hezbollah offers all of these services and more.

真主黨提供的服務比以上所提到的還要多。

Armed groups also seek to win the population over

武裝組織同樣通過 提供通常政府無法提供的服務

by offering something that the state is not providing:

來贏取大眾支持，

safety and security.

比如安全和保障

The initial rise of the Taliban in war-torn Afghanistan,

阿富汗塔利班的最初萌芽

or even the beginning of the ascent of ISIS,

和ISIS的起源

can be understood also by looking at these groups' efforts

可以基於對這些組織

to provide security.

為了提供安保而做出的努力而理解

Now, unfortunately, in these cases,

然而，在這些例子中

the provision of security came at an unbearably high price

對於人民而言， 為了安全而投靠這些組織的代價

for the population.

是非常昂貴

But in general, providing social services fills a gap,

但是總體而言， 這些組織提供的社會服務彌補

a governance gap left by the government,

政府遺留下的治理缺口，

and allows these groups to increase their strength

從而使得這些非武裝組織更加強壯，

and their power.

並且不斷的增強他們的實力。

For example, the 2006 electoral victory of the Palestinian Hamas

比如， 對於2006年 伊斯蘭抵抗運動的勝利的理解

cannot be understood without acknowledging the group's social work.

必須基於該組織所做出的社會服務

Now, this is a really complex picture,

現在，情況變得複雜，

yet in the West, when we look at armed groups,

然而在西方，當我們提到武裝組織

we only think of the violent side.

我們只考慮到了暴力的一面。

But that's not enough to understand these groups' strength,

但是若要更好理解這些組織的優勢，

strategy or long-term vision.

只考慮暴力方面遠遠不夠。

These groups are hybrid.

這些組織是綜合體，

They rise because they fill a gap left by the government,

他們之所以立足 是因為他們彌補了政府職能缺失，

and they emerge to be both armed and political,

他們兼併成為武裝政治力量，

engage in violent struggle and provide governance.

在暴力鬥爭和治理中起很大作用。

And the more these organizations are complex and sophisticated,

這些組織變得越複雜精密

the less we can think of them as the opposite of a state.

我們越無法關注到他們與國家的不同，

Now, what do you call a group like Hezbollah?

那麼，你將會如何稱呼真主黨這類組織呢？

They run part of a territory, they administer all their functions,

他們運營自己的基地， 並且管理所有的職能部門，

they pick up the garbage, they run the sewage system.

他們清理垃圾，也經營排水管道。

Is this a state? Is it a rebel group?

這是一個國家？還是一個反叛組織？

Or maybe something else, something different and new?

或者是另外的東西，是一個完全新的東西？

And what about ISIS?

現在我們來聊聊ISIS，

The lines are blurred.

界限變得模糊，

We live in a world of states, non-states, and in-between,

我們生活在由國家，非國家 和介於二者間的世界中，

and the more states are weak, like in the Middle East today,

隨著越來越多的國家變得軟弱， 例如當今的中東，

the more non-state actors step in and fill that gap.

越來越多的非國家組織就介入 並填充職能缺失。

This matters for governments, because to counter these groups,

對於政府而言，在面對這些組織中

they will have to invest more in non-military tools.

政府需要在非軍事職能方面投入更多

Filling that governance gap

填充治理的空白

has to be at the center of any sustainable approach.

是任何永續發展方式的重心。

This also matters very much for peacemaking and peacebuilding.

如果我們更好的理解武裝組織

If we better understand armed groups,

對於和平調節和構建也有深遠意義，

we will better know what incentives to offer

我們會更了解如何給出更優的動機

to encourage the transition from violence to nonviolence.

促進暴力到非暴力的轉變。

So in this new contest between states and non-states,

所以在國家與非國家之間的競爭中，

military power can win some battles,

軍事力量可以贏得一些戰爭

but it will not give us peace nor stability.

但是不會使社會和平穩定

To achieve these objectives,

為了實現這個目標

what we need is a long-term investment in filling that security gap,

我們需要長期對安保缺失進行彌補

in filling that governance gap

彌補治理缺失

that allowed these groups to thrive in the first place.

使得這些組織得到成長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）