We have had a very dramatic round of rebounds in world stock markets.

我們已經歷了非常戲劇性的一輪全球股市反彈。

They started in Asia. Strong rebounds also in Europe, and here in the US.

這是從亞洲開始的。強烈反彈也發生在歐洲，現在還有美國。

The question is exactly what has driven it?

問題是，是什麼促使此事發生的？

As you can see, the S&P 500 is now right back at the top of its range

您可以看到，標準普爾 500 現在在其範圍內的頂端，

since that dramatic correction in August. It hasn't broken through that range but it's right at the close of it.

自從上回八月的巨幅調整。它尚未突破那個範圍，但也挺接近了。

You'll notice also that it never got below the level from the last very aggressive correction back in October of last year,

您也會發現，自從去年十月大幅的修正開始，它的表現從來沒有低於水平。

widely referred to as the bonds flash crash.

被廣泛被稱為債券的閃電崩盤。

Now, what has been driving this?

現在，到底是甚麼在促使這件事發生？

Obviously, we had non-farm payrolls data on Friday, which was very disappointing.

很顯然地，我們對禮拜五的非農就業數據相當失望。

Initially you saw a selloff and then you saw a rebound.

首先你看到了拋售，然後就是你看到的反彈。

The most natural explanation would be that in this case bad news is good news, because it means that rates stay lower for longer.

最自然的解釋是在這種情況下，壞消息就是好消息，因為這意味著低利率將停留更長的時間。

However, various other asset classes don't fit with that.

然而，其他資產類別不符合這一點。

We've seen bond yields rise today, not what happens if you think rates are staying lower for longer.

我們已看到債券收益率上升，若你認為低利率會維持更長時間，那今天這種事是你不會預期發生的。

Commodities really haven't done very much, maybe up very slightly today, but not an impressive clear cut picture.

日用品並沒有做非常多貢獻，也許只有稍微往上升，不是令人印象深刻的。

Then we get to the dollar, which should logically be weakened if people think that the Fed

接著我們想到了美元，照邏輯來說它應該變得疲軟，如果大眾認為美國央行

really isn't gonna be raising rates any earlier than anybody else.

真的不會比其他地方更早升息。

If we take a look at this next chart, you can see that actually the dollar hasn't done anything at all much against its major trading partners,

如果我們看這下一張表格，你會看到事實上美元並沒有做什麼，相對主要貿易夥伴來說。

that's the US dollar index in blue. There includes currencies like the euro and the yuan.

藍色標記的是美元。包含歐元與日圓的匯率。

Where you do see quite a dramatic rebound in the last few days is in emerging markets, foreign exchange,

您的確在這幾天的新興外匯市場看到一個相當急遽的反彈，

at noticeably the the Brazilian Real and the South African Rand.

其中顯著的是巴西雷亞爾和南非蘭特。

Those currencies had obviously been sold off very aggressively.

這些貨幣顯然被積極的拋售。

There was a suggestion that even if the news is very bad for emerging markets,

有個猜想是即使這對新興市場不是甚麼好新聞，

which it is, that sell off has gone too far and we've seen a very strong rebound from there.

也就是，這次的拋售已經誇張到我們看到這麼強烈的反彈。

This could simply be a response to oversold conditions and valuation.

這可能只是超跌情形和估值的反應。

Now you get a similar picture if you take a look at the guts of what has happened in the U.S. equity markets.

如果您看到美國股市發生的事，你就能得到一個類似的概念。

As we can see from the next chart. What we're looking at here are the two best-performing stocks today in the S&P 500,

我們看看下一張表。我們看到在這裡有兩個標準普爾500指數類股表現得最好，

which are Alcoa, the aluminum producer and Micron Technologies, which makes semiconductors.

它們分別是美國鋁業公司，鋁生產商和美光科技，從事半導體業。

Both very very cyclical stocks, very prone to the industrial, the global industrial cycle.

都是非常週期性的股票，很容易受到全球工業週期的影響。

And both had done really really terribly for the year so far.

且都在這年表現得非常不好。

Now in the case of Micron, what is even more intriguing is that they have been spurred

談論美光科技，現在讓人注意的是它們在刺激下

by their latest earnings announcements, which came out after the market on Thursday.

最新的業績報告，這是上週四市場後傳來的消息。

Which was bad and disappointing and involves talking down estimates for the future,

其中表現不好且讓人失望，包括對未來的估計，

but didn't talk down estimates quite as much as some brokers had feared.

但是估計下來並沒有像一些券商所擔心的那樣。

The fact that you got that kind of a rebound from what was essentially a very bad, very negative earnings reports,

當你可以從個非常糟糕的，消極的收入報告反彈上來，這就代表

suggests that some of the fear that has been written into earnings forecast has been overdone

一些已被寫入盈利預測的恐懼其實是過度悲觀。

and that you could, we could indeed be primed to see quite a rebound

而且你可以，我們可以首先看到一個小反彈，

without that much in the way of good news from the earnings season once it gets underway.

這個不影響之後一季好的表現。

When it comes to Alcoa of course they will be the first company to report later this week starting off that earnings season.

談到美國鋁業，它當然是第一間自上禮拜會報告財報的公司。

I do think the third-quarter earnings season really is now critical, if we want to see the S&P break up out of its range

我認為第三季度的財報確實是現在的關鍵，如果我們希望看到普爾突破其範圍，

that will require some reasonably good numbers from the earnings season.

財報季會需要一些蠻好的數字。

It's still possible if companies choose to kitchen sink through lots of the bad data into their numbers

有一件事還是有可能，如果公司選擇把壞數據像扔東西到廚房水槽的話，

and to guide down when it's still possible that will take us back down again.

並一直壓抑它，因為有下滑的風險。

The bottom line is that earnings season really matters.

重點是，這一季的財報非常重要。