Name: 美聯儲決策後，美元為何反彈？ (Why Is the Dollar Rallying in Wake of Fed Decision?)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T05:43:51.000Z
Duration: 2 min 41 s

未來簡單式

Derek, why is the dollar rallying now when everybody is suggesting the Fed is not gonna be raising interest rates anytime soon?

Derek，請問為什麼當大眾在揣測美國央行不會在近期內提高利率的時候幣值正在回穩呢？

Well I think if you look at the projections that the Fed gave last week, you know, there wasn't a huge change in the story,

好的，我認為如果你有注意到美國央行在上周提出的計畫，你會發現裡頭並沒有什麼巨大的調整，

過去簡單式

in other words, bar the fact that they didn't go in September,

換句話說，除了他們並未在九月上升之外，

what they're estimating in terms of rate increases for 2016 and 2017 was pretty much unchanged,

他們計算出2016 到 2017年的匯率漲幅幾乎沒有任何調整。

so the entire curve just shifted lower by 25 basis points,

所以整條曲線就只有調降25個基點，

and of course since the meeting, we've had a stream of Fed presidents come out

還有當然在會議上我們有看到有一排央行的董座站出來，

and pretty much reinforced the prospect that we will get that first rate increase this year.

也對我們強調今年將會有第一次利率的調漲。

So I think the market's takeaway is that, well, you know, not a whole lot has changed.

所以我認為對目前市場的結論，就是它沒有巨幅的改變。

The fundamental story in the U.S. still very much justifies some Fed action this year.

美國的基本面的準則仍可合理解釋其央行的行為。

Well the Euro is falling today for another day, 1.1161 right now,

現在歐元因為前幾天的關係貶值到 1.1161了，

the idea that the Fed would raise rates is probably Mario Draghi's fondest hope.

最殷殷期盼央行會調高利率的恐怕就是 Mario Draghi 了。

It is, but I think also the rhetoric that we've had from ECB members over the last week or so, is also pretty important.

的確是這樣，但我認為上禮拜歐洲央行員工的言論也相當重要。

Now of course, if you recall back before the Fed's left rates on hold, the Euros seemed to be trading as a risk off currency,

現在當然，如果你回顧央行先前讓利率持平時，歐元是個無風險買進的貨幣，

so rising when equity markets were falling.

所以當股票在跌的時候，它反而上漲。

And I think the Draghi press conference from the most recent monetary policy meetings

而且我認為近期內的貨幣政策討論會，其中也就是 Draghi 的記者會

and the rhetorics we're getting from the ECB, is beginning to change that dynamic.

和我們從歐洲央行得到的言論，看來應該會開始有所改變了。

And when we have bad market days like today, the Euro is actually looking softer and that's because of the increased prospect that perhaps,

而且當我們有像今天這樣不好的市場，歐元是有疲軟的現象，也許是因為有個展望是

the ECB will seriously consider extending quantitative easing.

歐洲央行會認真看待延長量化寬鬆的時間這件事。

If there were one currency pair that you were watching to tell us the story of what's going to happen around the world

如果有個你正在關注的一對匯幣對可以提醒整個世界現在正在發生什麼事，

with all this news-breaking confusion about what's going to happen, what would it be?

伴隨著這場即將發生的爆炸性混亂，那會是什麼呢？

Well I think a good one is perhaps Euro-Yen. I certainly look at the Japanese Yen,

我認為最能夠最佳解釋的是歐元與日圓這對。我的確在關注日圓，

and because of the BOJ's stance which is looking a bit ambivalent compared to everywhere else,

也因為日銀的立場與其他地區相比看起來有些不確定因素，

that it's beginning to take on a risk type characteristic.

So Euro-Yen volatility, in particular Euro-Yen decline is a clear signal that investors are increasingly concerned.

所以歐元與日圓的易變性，特別是它們之間的衰微，是一個明確的警訊，代表越來越多投資人也開始擔憂

I strongly agree with that, Derek Halpenny, thank you so much.

Derek Halpenny，我強烈同意你的看法，謝謝你。