Name: 當科幻小說成為科學事實 (When Science Fiction Becomes Science Fact)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T05:42:56.000Z
Duration: 8 min 23 s
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In 1988, Isaac Asimov predicted that we would all own computers connected to massive libraries

and be able to access digital teachers and reference materials on demand, allowing us

to learn at our own pace, wherever we want, about whatever we choose.

You know what's frustrating about tomorrow? . . . that it's not today. That makes it very

But that doesn't stop us from trying. And lots of our predictions about the science

of TOMORROW come in the form of science FICTION.

Science SCIENCE is, for the most part, a historical study, built on observations of things that

have already happened. But science FICTION has a decidedly tomorrow-y bent to it.

Not all predictions are CORRECT, I mean you'd have to be a pretty big bojo to think that

we're actually going to have hoverboards by October 21, 2015, but throughout the history

of science fiction, people have gotten a lot of things amazingly RIGHT.

Like in 1865, Jules Verne predicted that the US would send three men to the moon in a spaceship

named Columbiad launched on a rocket weighing 20,000 pounds at a cost of 12.1 billion dollars.

104 years later, the U.S. sent three men to the moon in a spaceship named Columbia on

a rocket weighing 26,000 pounds at a cost of 14.4 billion dollars. NOT BAD.

Mark Twain, in his 1898 story "From the 'London Times' of 1904" predicted a worldwide network

of interconnected telephone devices that would let people share information and he even predicted

we would just waste time looking at what everyone else was doing.

He wasn't the only one to predict the internet. Douglas Adams wrote about a handheld device

that was the standard repository for all knowledge and wisdom in the galaxy, but that was in

1979, and the internet was already being built, so I don't know if it counts. But hey, you

Arthur C. Clarke is also on the list of people who predicted internet-type computer things

but  his BOOKS got so many things right that you'd think he had access to some superior form

of artificial intelligence. "Siri can you open the pod bay doors please?"

Today artificial intelligence has advanced enough to win at Jeopardy, but so far no one

Before Arthur C. Clarke wrote stories, he worked on radar for the Royal Air Force. In

1945, he wrote an article describing "extra-terrestrial relays", which essentially predicted AND laid

out a plan for our entire modern system of geostationary communications satellites. To

this day, the particular altitude of space that those satellites live is known as the

In the 1911 story "Ralph 124C 41+", Hugo Gernsback, the namesake of science fiction's annual "Hugo

awards", predicted that an emitted radio wave should reflect off distant objects and make

them detectable like visible light, which we call radar, something that wasn't invented

until almost 25 years later. In 1961's "Stranger In A Strange Land" Robert Heinlein predicted

screensavers, although I'm not sure he knew we'd use flying toasters. In Fahrenheit 451,

Ray Bradbury predicted flatscreen television, as well as "seashells" and "thimble radios"

worn in the ears which I think we've all HEARD of.

50 years ago, during the 1964 world's fair, Isaac Asimov predicted that in 2014 we would

have some robots, but they wouldn't be very good yet, that nuclear and solar power would

replace fossil fuels, we'd have self-driving cars, we'd have unmanned missions to Mars,

and everyone would wear killer sideburns and bolo ties

Philip K. Dick is a decidedly more pessimistic predictor of the future, but he was . . . RIGHT.

Maybe it's not all sunshine and roses out there. Minority Report's "Precogs" have been

related by some to modern efforts to use neuroscience in the courtroom. Total Recall-level memory

implantation is nowhere close to being real, but experiments in mice suggest that brain-to-brain

neural linkage is not complete fiction. Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep predicts

a world full of bio-inspired engineering and human-like artificial intelligence, while

A Scanner Darkly predicted a level of high-tech government surveillance that I think we all

WISH was fiction, but I love the NSA, the NSA is our friend.

But nobody, NOBODY, holds a Nostradmus-y candle to HG Wells. He, too predicted the iPad, oh

AND automatic sliding doors, in 1899's When The Sleeper Wakes.

He predicted the atomic bomb, in scary detail, including all of the radioactive fallout horror

that it would bring, in 1914's "The World Set Free", even down to some of the nuclear

PHYSICS involved. He even called it an "atomic bomb" which was not even a term that existed

In The Time Machine he predicted, well, the time machine (although he didn't explain how

it works, so maybe we shouldn't count that one). The Shape of Things to Come predicted

airborne warfare. Men Like Gods saw wireless communications. War of the Worlds (SPOILERS)

reminded us that faced with man or even alien technology, bacteria will ALWAYS win. The

Invisible Man used light refracting metamaterials for invisibility nearly a century BEFORE we

In The Island of Doctor Moreau he not only predicted genetic engineering, but asked a

question that we still haven't answered: How does man safely manipulate nature when he

HG Wells was so good, and so often correct, about predicting the future, that he is called

"the man who invented tomorrow". Or today. Of course, not all sci-fi is good at predicting

the future, and sci-fi gets lots of stuff wrong, but you have to admit that some of

these predictions are so spot on that you'd almost expect one of the authors to be from

One right prediction in any one body of work would be lucky, but this many right answers

can't be luck. Clearly something sets these people apart.

Many of the greatest sci-fi writers also had serious scientific training. Isaac Asimov

had a PhD in biochemistry. Arthur C. Clarke degree in math and physics. HG Wells had a

degree in biology. Of course it also helps to hang out with people like Carl Sagan.

At its core, good science fiction must rest on good SCIENCE. It seems obvious, but this,

I think, is why the best sci-fi authors are also the most frequently right when it comes

How far can we see into the future? It depends on what we're looking for. Isaac Asimov said

that when we look at stars, or galaxies, or DNA we are looking at simple things, things

that follow nice neat rules and equations. But when we look at human history, it's chaotic,

it's unpredictable, our vision is limited. Science transforms the complex into the simple,

it's how we explain the chaos. Science is how we see farther, and science fiction is

I would like to know what YOU think down in the comments. Why makes some science fiction

SO GOOD at predicting the future. And I PREDICT that I missed a TON of awesome science fiction

that has become reality, so PLEASE leave a comment and tell me what I missed.

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當科幻小說成為科學事實 (When Science Fiction Becomes Science Fact)

tomorrow

write

Internet

good