Name: 中國。是否正處於硬著陸階段？ (China: Is it in the Midst of a Hard Landing?)
Uploaded: 2021-01-14T05:41:55.000Z
Duration: 5 min 42 s

Gordon, you've been a China, sort of doomsayer for a long time.

Gordon，你一直以來都是一個中國的末日預言者。

Is what we're seeing now the hard landing that you've called in the past?

眼下中國的局勢，是否就是你曾經提到的硬著陸現象呢？

Yeah, well this is certainly a hard landing, because China is not growing at the 7.0% that Beijing claims,

這確實是一個硬著陸，因為中國既沒有按照北京當局宣稱的，以 7.0% 的經濟成長率成長，

it's not even growing at the 2.2% that they are privately talking about in China.

甚至沒有以私底下議論的 2.2% 在成長。

It could very well be even lower than that, but if I'm wrong, and I could be

中國目前的經濟成長率可能比那個數值還低，但如果我評估錯誤，而且有很高的機會我會出錯，

'cause no one really knows where China is.

因為沒有人確實知道中國目前的情況。

It'll be there in a couple of months, because what we're seeing is a severe deterioration in the economy.

他們可能幾個月後就會達到新的低點，因為我們看到的是一個嚴重退化的經濟體。

You know, there's a devaluation, there is a plunge in the stock market but most important, there's the money coming out of China.

中國目前正經歷貨幣貶值和股市大跌，但最重要的是，資金紛紛流出中國。

You know, there're various estimates somewhere between 520 to 800 billion dollars in the last five quarters,

各家預測在過去五季以來，約有 5200 億到 8000 億之間的資金流出，

that's a lot of money, that's the Chinese people voting with their feet.

那可是一大筆錢，這現象也反映了中國人民的不滿。

That's what basically they're saying is, this economy, it doesn't have a future.

這就是他們說的，這是個沒有未來的經濟體。

We spoke to David Wu, head of global rates and currency research at Bank America of Merrill Lynch yesterday.

我們昨天和美銀美林的外匯策略師 David 進行談話。

Talking about China's stock market and what's gonna keep it rising in the near term though. Take a listen.

我們談到中國的股市，以及促成它近期成長的因素。我們來聽一下吧。

People not realizing, what now basically four five days away from the parade in Beijing, to celebrate the end of the second world war,

人們並沒有意識到，四五天之後即將在北京舉行的二戰慶祝儀式，

presumably the reason why the Chinese started to intervene in the stock market directly,

中國人之所以開始直接干預股市的原因，

is because they don't want the president to look bad when the foreign dignitary start to show up in Beijing.

很可能是因為他們不想在外國政要蒞臨北京時，讓主席太難堪。

Absolutely, I mean, because you know, they did not intervene on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and we saw the stock market fall.

這是當然的，我的意思是，他們並沒有在星期一、二或三介入股市，而這段期間的股市就下跌。

But lo and behold in the last hour on Thursday, it went up 5.3%.

但注意星期四收盤前最後一刻，它上漲了 5.3%。

Yesterday, 4.8%, that's completely inexplicable, that this is government buying in the last hour of the afternoon session.

而昨天則上漲了 4.8%，這真是令人費解，而這正是政府在午盤結束前一刻購入股票的表現。

One of the things that Woo said in the interview is that we could see a return to further UN weakness after the parade

吳先生在訪談中提到的其中一件事情是，我們可以在抗戰宴會後，看見聯合國更大的缺失，

and that maybe the devaluation we saw was just the beginning, here's even talking about the government letting the currency go completely.

更甚而，目前的貨幣貶值只是初期，甚至有傳聞指出政府打算讓貨幣自由浮動。

What's do you... What's your take on the government's currency policy at this moment?

你對當前政府的貨幣政策有什麼看法呢？

Well, eventually they're gonna have to do that, because that's the way the economy is going,

這個嘛，他們終究是要那麼做的，因為那是整個經濟的趨勢，

and the currency is at an unsupportable level.

而且眼下貨幣正處於一個水深火熱的情況。

You know, they're spending if FT (Financial Times) says of about 10 billion dollars a day to support the value of the currency.

金融時報指出，中國一天要花費 100 億元來維持貨幣的價值。

And that means in 21 weeks, you go through a trillion dollars of reserves,

這代表在 21 周後，你就會用光一兆元的存底，

and that number could actually increase, because as people start to realize how bad things are in China,

而那個金額還有可能增加，因為當人們開始意識到中國的情勢有多糟糕時，

you can see the pessimism build both inside and outside China,

中國內外都充滿了悲觀的氛圍，

therefore you can see even more money coming out of the country.

因此你會發現越來越多的資金開始流出。

We did see a, if you take a look at their FX (Foreign Exchange) reserves, a socgen had a note out this week,

如果你仔細看中國的外匯存底，法國興業銀行在本周發佈了一篇文章，

talking about the extra firepower that China has that they don't actually need to support their currency.

談到中國仍擁有相當龐大的資金，所以他們並不需要去拯救他們的貨幣。

Well that's not quite it, but yeah, there you go.

這不是我要的圖表，但... 對，就是這個。

And basically they're saying that they had about 900 billion that they can play with, to support their currency and help with capital outflows.

他們談到中國大約有 9000 億可以用以支撐貨幣並支援資金外流的情況。

You know, who knows what they have, because we can't really trust what they say about their foreign exchange reserves.

誰知道他們有什麼盤算呢？因為我們不能完全相信中國官方對於外匯存底的說法。

But obviously look, they say they've got 3.65 billion, at least through the end of last quarter.

但很明顯地，最少在上一季結束前，他們宣稱他們還有 36.5 億元。

They probably have a lot less now, with their burn rate, and that burn rate, as I said, will probably increase.

考量到他們的資金消耗率，現在的存底可能又更少了，況且那個比率仍有可能上調。

So, you know, this country which looks invulnerable now, could very will end up being the real basket case of next year.

所以，這個現在乍看之下無堅不摧的國家，極有可能在明年跌落谷底。

Or maybe even the end of this year with the way things are going.

考量到目前的走向，這件事甚至可能在今年底成真。

Because the economy doesn't have any support there.

因為中國當前的經濟情況可說是孤立無援。

Deutsche Bank was out with a note this week, in which they used the term "quantitative tightening."

德意志銀行本周也發表一篇文章，內文使用了「量化緊縮」這個詞彙。

And they basically made the argument, that China's reserves have grown

而他們有一個論點是，在量化寬鬆期間，

roughly out of the same paces of the federal reserves assets during quantitative easing.

中國的存底已經超越了聯邦儲備局的資產。

But now, they are coming down, as you can see on the chart it's the purple line, has started to decline

但現在，一如圖表中的紫色線條，這個數字正在下降，

and so Deutsche Bank is saying that this is an issue for the entire world:

因此，德意志銀行認為這是一個全球的議題：

Do you see global ramifications from this?

在這兩篇文章中，你是否看見國際觀點的分歧呢？

Only because of the panic, but I actually think China is less important to the global economy than most people think.

這純粹只是惶恐而已，但實際上，我認為中國對於全球經濟的影響，沒有大家想的那麼重要。

'cause you know, everyone says it's an engine of global growth.

大家都說中國是全球經濟成長的引擎。

Well, to be an engine, you gotta buy the goods and services of other countries to create growth elsewhere.

但，想做一個引擎，你應該要從其他地區購買貨物與服務，進而在該地製造經濟成長。

But China through mercantilist policies is actually been taking growth from other places.

但中國在重商主義的政策下，其實一直在強取豪奪其他國家的成長。

And you know the manufacturing that is done in China, well, that'll be done in Vietnam and India and elsewhere.

此外，中國目前的製造業，已經可以由越南、印度等地完成。

So the global economy will adjust, but people will panic, because there is this perception that China is critical to everything.

因此，全球的金融體系會隨之調整；但人們還是會驚慌，因為大家仍普遍認為中國對任何事情都有一定的影響力。

And I think that's wrong, but that's the way the world works these days.

我認為這個觀念是錯誤的，但這就是現今世界運行的方式。

So, therefore, there will be problems when China has even more difficulties that are more evident.

所以，隨著中國的困境日益明顯，問題會逐漸浮現。

But in terms of the actual stock market, do you think that actually has an effect on Chinese consumption?

但在股市方面，你認為這會影響到中國的消費情況嗎？

I mean, they can still grow that, they're really invested more in real estate

我的意思是，中國人還是可以持續消費。一些分析家指出，

than they are with their assets which are under 10% according to some analysts?

中國人對於房地產的投資，已經遠超過其他只占 10% 得資產投資

Yeah, well it has a marginal effect on consumption, you know, we've seen the reporting about people not buying luxury cars

的確，消費情況的確存在邊際效應，已經有消息指出，因為股市下跌，

and even not buying mid-sized cars, because of the falls in the stock market.

人們不再購買名車甚至中型車了。

People have put their money in there, they had hoped that it would ride,

人們把錢投入股市，就是希望可以生財，

they take it out when they get something they want to buy, that's not happening right now.

每當他們有所欲求的時候，就會把錢從股市裡取出來；但這個情況已然不再。

But also you know, consumption really hasn't been as vibrant as the retail numbers suggest.

同時，消費情況也不如零售價格所呈現的那樣活躍。

I think that it's been growing, but it's not been growing at the rate that everybody thinks.

我想消費仍在成長，但並不是以我們所想的速率發展。

So it hasn't really been the pole for the rest of the world.

所以中國其實一直都不是世界的標竿。

We see that in the really bad import numbers for instance.

我們從它表現不良的入口額就可以略知一二了。

Alright, so you already have a very gloomy assessment of China.

好的，所以你對中國的前景已經有了相當慘淡的評估。

Fair enough, but what's your nightmare scenario for China that keeps you up at night?

好的，那你認為最糟狀況，中國的夢魘會是什麼呢？

Well, basically that they have a 1930 style crash, see, leaders there cannot affect the downward trend in the economy.

這個嘛，他們目前正經歷 1930 年代經濟大蕭條式的衰退，中國的領導人對於經濟崩盤無能為力。

They can slow it, and they have been slowing it for a number of years, but everything, nothing's working.

他們可以延緩這個現象，而且他們的確已經努力了幾年，但毫無建樹。

Monetarism stimulus is not working. Fiscal stimulus would be dangerous, cause it creates debt.

貨幣刺激無效，財政刺激的風險過高，因為它會製造債務。

They can't reform because of problems in the political system. The stock market boom was a bust and now they're devaluing their currency.

因為政治制度存在過多問題，這些領導者們也無從改革。股市的繁榮只是假象，而他們現在竟然在使自己的貨幣貶值。

This is a country where the leaders really cannot affect the economy for the better.

這是一個領導者無從改善經濟情況的國家。