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  • I'm really excited to share with you

    我非常高興與大家分享

  • some findings that really surprise me

    令我非常驚訝的研究結果

  • about what makes companies succeed the most,

    是有關創業成功的關鍵因素

  • what factors actually matter the most for startup success.

    實際影響創業成功與否 最關鍵的因素是什麼

  • I believe that the startup organization

    我認為創業

  • is one of the greatest forms to make the world a better place.

    是使得世界變得更加美好的方式之一

  • If you take a group of people with the right equity incentives

    如果你帶領一組團隊 給他們適當的激勵獎金

  • and organize them in a startup,

    開創一個事業

  • you can unlock human potential in a way never before possible.

    你可以用前所未有的方式 開啟人類的潛能

  • You get them to achieve unbelievable things.

    你讓團隊達到令人難以置信的成功

  • But if the startup organization is so great,

    但是既然創業是如此美好

  • why do so many fail?

    為什麼有這麼多人失敗?

  • That's what I wanted to find out.

    這是我想要找出原因的地方

  • I wanted to find out what actually matters most

    我想要找出導致創業成功

  • for startup success.

    最關鍵的因素

  • And I wanted to try to be systematic about it,

    而且我試著系統化地找出關鍵因素

  • avoid some of my instincts and maybe misperceptions I have

    以避免我的直覺 和我的認知錯誤影響結果

  • from so many companies I've seen over the years.

    我觀察多年來我見過的許多公司

  • I wanted to know this

    想要了解創業成功的關鍵因素

  • because I've been starting businesses since I was 12 years old

    因為我從十二歲就開始做生意

  • when I sold candy at the bus stop in junior high school,

    就讀初中時,我在公車站賣糖果

  • to high school, when I made solar energy devices,

    高中時,我製作太陽能的裝置

  • to college, when I made loudspeakers.

    大學時,我製作擴音器

  • And when I graduated from college, I started software companies.

    大學畢業後,我成立軟體公司

  • And 20 years ago, I started Idealab,

    20 年前,我成立一家公司叫 「創意實驗室」(Idealab)

  • and in the last 20 years, we started more than 100 companies,

    在這 20 年當中,我創辦超過 100 家公司

  • many successes, and many big failures.

    很多是成功的企業,但也有很失敗的

  • We learned a lot from those failures.

    我們從失敗中學到許多寶貴經驗

  • So I tried to look across what factors

    所以我試著找出是什麼因素

  • accounted the most for company success and failure.

    導致一家公司成功或失敗

  • So I looked at these five.

    我找出五個因素

  • First, the idea.

    第一個因素是,創意

  • I used to think that the idea was everything.

    我以前認為有創新的點子最重要

  • I named my company Idealab for how much I worship

    我把我的公司名為「創意實驗室」 就知道我多麼看重這個因素

  • the "aha!" moment when you first come up with the idea.

    「啊!有了!」的當下 有一個想法從腦中浮現

  • But then over time,

    但隨著時間的過去

  • I came to think that maybe the team, the execution, adaptability,

    我開始想或許團隊成員、執行力及適應力

  • that mattered even more than the idea.

    甚至比創意還重要

  • I never thought I'd be quoting boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,

    我從沒想過會在 TED 講台上 引用拳擊手麥克・泰森的話

  • but he once said,

    但他曾經說過

  • "Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face." (Laughter)

    「每個人都有自己的計畫, 直到他們臉上挨了一拳」(笑聲)

  • And I think that's so true about business as well.

    這句話可以完全適用在商場上

  • So much about a team's execution

    團隊有是否有很強的執行力

  • is its ability to adapt to getting punched in the face by the customer.

    完全在於他們能否能適應 被客戶拳頭打在臉上的能力

  • The customer is the true reality.

    客戶的反應才是真正的現實

  • And that's why I came to think

    這就是為何我開始思考

  • that the team maybe was the most important thing.

    或許團隊才是最重要的因素

  • Then I started looking at the business model.

    然後我又開始研究「商業模式」

  • Does the company have a very clear path generating customer revenues?

    一個企業有明確的產生營收的方法嗎?

  • That started rising to the top in my thinking

    因此我開始思考

  • about maybe what mattered most for success.

    或許這才是成功最關鍵的因素

  • Then I looked at the funding.

    然後,我也考慮「募資」這個因素

  • Sometimes companies received intense amounts of funding.

    有時後,企業籌得一大筆資金

  • Maybe that's the most important thing?

    或許這才是最重要因素?

  • And then of course, the timing.

    再來當然是「時機」

  • Is the idea way too early and the world's not ready for it?

    你腦海中的那個想法 會不會現在還不適用呢?

  • Is it early, as in, you're in advance and you have to educate the world?

    會不會現在開始還太早? 你必須教育消費者?

  • Is it just right?

    時機點剛剛好?

  • Or is it too late, and there's already too many competitors?

    或者太晚,市場上早已有大批的競爭者?

  • So I tried to look very carefully at these five factors

    我試著仔細地以這五個因素

  • across many companies.

    用來研究大量的公司

  • And I looked across all 100 Idealab companies,

    包括我創立的一百家公司

  • and 100 non-Idealab companies

    和一百家非我創立的公司

  • to try and come up with something scientific about it.

    試著以科學方法找出關鍵的因素

  • So first, on these Idealab companies,

    首先,在我成立的公司

  • the top five companies --

    其中最成功的五家公司

  • Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com --

    Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, Net Zero, Tickets.com

  • those all became billion-dollar successes.

    這五家公司非常賺錢

  • And the five companies on the bottom --

    而五家最差的公司,分別是

  • Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --

    Z.com, Insider Page, MyLife, Desktop Factory, poeplelink,

  • we all had high hopes for, but didn't succeed.

    我們對這些公司抱有很高的期望 但仍然沒有成功

  • So I tried to rank across all of those attributes

    所以試著找出這些因素的排名

  • how I felt those companies scored on each of those dimensions.

    這些公司如何在每一個因素中取得分數

  • And then for non-Idealab companies, I looked at wild successes,

    在非我建立的公司名單中 我找了一些極度成功的例子

  • like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber and Youtube and LinkedIn.

    Airbnb, Instagram, Uber YouTube 和 Linkedin.

  • And some failures:

    也找了一些失敗的公司

  • Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com

    像是 Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com

  • Flooz and Friendster.

    Flooz 和 Friendster

  • The bottom companies had intense funding,

    這些不成功的公司,籌得大筆資金

  • they even had business models in some cases,

    有的甚至有商業模式

  • but they didn't succeed.

    但是沒能成功

  • I tried to look at what factors actually accounted the most

    我試著研究,什麼因素 對這些公司的成功和失敗

  • for success and failure across all of these companies,

    佔有最高的比率

  • and the results really surprised me.

    結果讓我很訝異

  • The number one thing was timing.

    最重要的因素是「時機」

  • Timing accounted for 42 percent

    時機佔 42%

  • of the difference between success and failure.

    這個比率是成功與失敗公司之間的差異

  • Team and execution came in second,

    「團隊」和「執行力」排第二名

  • and the idea,

    然後是「創意」

  • the differentiability of the idea, the uniqueness of the idea,

    創意的可辨性,創意的獨特性

  • that actually came in third.

    實際上排第三名

  • Now, this isn't absolutely definitive,

    這個研究並不是絶對完整

  • it's not to say that the idea isn't important,

    並不是說「創意」不重要

  • but it very much surprised me that the idea wasn't the most important thing.

    但令我訝異的是「創意」不是最重要的

  • Sometimes it mattered more when it was actually timed.

    有時比較重要的,其實是「時機」

  • The last two, business model and funding, made sense to me actually.

    最後二個是「商業模式」和「募資」 這是可以理解的

  • I think business model makes sense to be that low

    我想「商業模式」 獲得較低的排名是有道理的

  • because you can start out without a business model

    因為沒有商業模式,也可以創業

  • and add one later if your customers are demanding what you're creating.

    你的客戶有需求時,再將商業模式加入

  • And funding, I think as well,

    募資也是一樣道理

  • if you're underfunded at first but you're gaining traction,

    即使剛開始沒有資金 但公司越來越受歡迎

  • especially in today's age,

    尤其是現在這時代

  • it's very, very easy to get intense funding.

    你就很容易籌得一大筆資金

  • So now let me give you some specific examples about each of these.

    讓我舉幾一些具體的例子

  • So take a wild success like Airbnb that everybody knows about.

    例如,大家熟知的、高度成功的 Airbnb

  • Well, that company was famously passed on by many smart investors

    這間公司被許多聰明的投資者忽略

  • because people thought,

    因為大家認為

  • "No one's going to rent out a space in their home to a stranger."

    「沒有人要將自家的房間出租給陌生人」

  • Of course, people proved that wrong.

    但事實證明這個想法是錯的

  • But one of the reasons it succeeded,

    它成功的因素之一

  • aside from a good business model, a good idea, great execution,

    除了好的商業模式 好創意及優秀的執行力外

  • is the timing.

    那就是「時機」

  • That company came out right during the height of the recession

    公司創立之時 剛好是在經濟衰退的高點

  • when people really needed extra money,

    人們需要額外的收入

  • and that maybe helped people overcome

    這或許可以幫助人們克服

  • their objection to renting out their own home to a stranger.

    不喜歡將自己的房間出租給陌生人心態

  • Same thing with Uber.

    優步 (Uber) 也是相同的情況

  • Uber came out,

    優步成立之時

  • incredible company, incredible business model,

    是個相當不錯的公司 具有優異的商業模式

  • great execution, too.

    也有很強的執行力

  • But the timing was so perfect

    成立的時間點是如此完美

  • for their need to get drivers into the system.

    他們需要將計程車司機納入公司系統

  • Drivers were looking for extra money; it was very, very important.

    而司機也在尋找額外的收入 這一點相當重要

  • Some of our early successes, Citysearch, came out when people needed web pages.

    「Citysearch」是我們早期成功的公司, 因應當時人們有網頁的需求而成立

  • GoTo.com, which we announced actually at TED in 1998,

    我們在 1998 年在 TED 發表 GoTo.com

  • was when companies were looking for cost-effective ways to get traffic.

    正逢當時企業在尋找符合成本效益 的方法,取得網路流量

  • We thought the idea was so great,

    我們認為想這個點子真好

  • but actually, the timing was probably maybe more important.

    但事實上,時機或許更重要

  • And then some of our failures.

    我們也有一些失敗公司的例子

  • We started a company called Z.com, it was an online entertainment company.

    我們成立一家公司稱為 Z.com 是一家線上娛樂公司

  • We were so excited about it --

    我們對這家公司充滿期望

  • we raised enough money, we had a great business model,

    我們籌措足夠的資金 具備很好的商業模式

  • we even signed incredibly great Hollywood talent to join the company.

    甚至與好萊塢極的優秀人才簽約 加入這個公司

  • But broadband penetration was too low in 1999-2000.

    但在 1999-2000 年 寬頻的普及率太低

  • It was too hard to watch video content online,

    人們要在網路觀看影片很困難

  • you had to put codecs in your browser and do all this stuff,

    我們必須在用戶端的瀏覽器置入轉碼器 協助用戶完成這個工作

  • and the company eventually went out of business in 2003.

    這公司最後在 2003 年結束營業

  • Just two years later,

    僅儘二年之後

  • when the codec problem was solved by Adobe Flash

    Adobe Flash 解決了轉碼的問題

  • and when broadband penetration crossed 50 percent in America,

    並且,美國的寬頻普及率超過百分之五十

  • YouTube was perfectly timed.

    YouTube 就在這樣一個 完美的時間點成立了

  • Great idea, but unbelievable timing.

    好的創意,配上絕佳的時機

  • In fact, YouTube didn't even have a business model when it first started.

    事實上,YouTube 在成立之初 並沒有商業模式

  • It wasn't even certain that that would work out.

    甚至不確定他們會成功

  • But that was beautifully, beautifully timed.

    但它就成功在於遇上如此完美的時間點

  • So what I would say, in summary,

    總之,我要表達的是

  • is execution definitely matters a lot.

    「執行力」當然重要

  • The idea matters a lot.

    「創意」也很重要

  • But timing might matter even more.

    但「時機」更加重要

  • And the best way to really assess timing

    評估時機最好的方式

  • is to really look at whether consumers are really ready

    是觀察消費者是否已經準備好

  • for what you have to offer them.

    接受你要提供給他們的產品或服務

  • And to be really, really honest about it,

    你要非常、非常誠實地考慮這個問題

  • not be in denial about any results that you see,

    不要否認你所看到的結果

  • because if you have something you love, you want to push it forward,

    因為如果有你喜歡的事業 你要往前推動

  • but you have to be very, very honest about that factor on timing.

    你就必須非常誠實地考慮 「時機」這個因素

  • As I said earlier,

    如我稍早所說的

  • I think startups can change the world and make the world a better place.

    創業可以改變這個世界 讓世界變得更美好

  • I hope some of these insights

    我希望今天的這些觀察

  • can maybe help you have a slightly higher success ratio,

    或許可以幫助你提升創業成功率

  • and thus make something great come to the world

    讓那些原本可能不會發生的創意點子

  • that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

    在現實世界裡開花結果

  • Thank you very much, you've been a great audience.

    謝謝大家,你們是很棒的聽眾

  • (Applause)

    (掌聲)

I'm really excited to share with you

我非常高興與大家分享

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A2 初級 中文 美國腔 TED 公司 因素 成功 時機 模式

【TED】比爾·格羅斯: 創業成功最關鍵的因素 (The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed | Bill Gross)

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    CUChou 發佈於 2015 年 09 月 07 日
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