about power in this 21st century.

這21世紀裡的權力。

And basically, what I'd like to tell you

而基本上我想告訴你們的，

is that power is changing,

就是權力正在改變。

and there are two types of changes

有兩種改變

I want to discuss.

是我想要探討的。

One is power transition,

一是權力的轉移，

which is change of power amongst states.

也就是國際中不同國家擁有的權力的改變。

And there the simple version of the message

這種改變簡單說起來

is it's moving from West to East.

就是權力正由西方移向東方。

The other is power diffusion,

另一個則是權力的擴散

the way power is moving

也就是權力移動的方式

from all states West or East

從所有國家，西方或東方

to non-state actors.

到非國家或非政府個體。

Those two things

這兩種現象

are the huge shifts of power

就是這世紀裡重要的

in our century.

權力轉移。

And I want to tell you about them each separately

而我想和你們分別聊聊這兩種現象

and then how they interact

以及它們如何的互動

and why, in the end, there may be some good news.

和為什麽，在最後，可能還是有好消息。

When we talk about power transition,

在討論權力的轉移的時候，

we often talk about the rise of Asia.

我們常常講到亞洲的崛起。

It really should be called

但它真的應該要被稱為

the recovery or return of Asia.

亞洲的回復，或重返國際舞臺。

If we looked at the world

如果我們來看

in 1800,

1800年的世界，

you'd find that more than half of the world's people

你會發覺世界上過半的人口

lived in Asia

住在亞洲，

and they made more than half the world's product.

這過半的人口也生產世界上超過一半的產品。

Now fast forward to 1900:

現在快轉到1900年，

half the world's people -- more than half -- still live in Asia,

世界上一半的人口--超過一半的人仍然住在亞洲，

but they're now making

但他們只有生產了

only a fifth of the world's product.

世界上五分之一的產品。

What happened? The Industrial Revolution,

有什麼事件發生了嗎? 工業革命。

which meant that all of a sudden,

這表示一夕之間

Europe and America

歐洲和美洲

became the dominant center of the world.

成為了世界上的統治中心。

What we're going to see in the 21st century

我們在二十一世紀會看到的

is Asia gradually returning

是亞洲逐步地再擁有

to being more than half of the world's population

世界過半的人口

and more than half of the world's product.

和生產超過世界一半的產品。

That's important and it's an important shift.

那是重要的一點，也是很重要的轉變。

But let me tell you a little bit about

但讓我來告訴你們一些

the other shift that I'm talking about,

我一開始談到的另一個轉變，

which is power diffusion.

權力的擴散。

To understand power diffusion

要了解權力的擴散，

put this in your mind:

你們必須先設想：

computing and communications costs

計算和通信的費用

have fallen a thousandfold

跟1970年比起來

between 1970

二十一世紀初的價格

and the beginning of this century.

降低了整整一千倍。

Now that's a big abstract number.

這聽起來像是個大而抽象的數字，

But to make it more real,

但要讓這聽起來比較真實一點，

if the price of an automobile

我們來假想如果汽車的價格

had fallen as rapidly

也是跌了一千倍，

as the price of computing power,

就像電腦計算能力的價格一樣，

you could buy a car today

你今天可以去買一輛車，

for five dollars.

而那只會花上你五塊美金。

Now when the price of any technology

當任何科技的價格

declines that dramatically,

如此戲劇性的降低，

the barriers to entry go down.

入門的門檻也會跟著降低，

Anybody can play in the game.

任何人都可以參與競爭。

So in 1970,

在1970年，

if you wanted to communicate

如果你想要啟動

from Oxford to Johannesburg

從牛津到約翰尼斯堡

to New Delhi

到新德里

to Brasilia

到巴西利亞

and anywhere simultaneously,

和任何地方的同步通訊，

you could do it.

你是做得到的，

The technology was there.

科技是有的。

But to be able to do it,

但要真的去做，

you had to be very rich --

你必須要非常的富有--

a government, a multinational corporation,

像是政府、多國企業、

maybe the Catholic Church --

或許天主教廷等才有可能

but you had to be pretty wealthy.

總之你必須要非常有錢。

Now, anybody has that capacity,

但現在，任何人都做得到，

which previously was restricted by price

之前因為價格的限制

just to a few actors.

使得能參與的個體極少，

If they have the price of entry into an Internet cafe --

現在任何人付得起使用網咖的費用--

the last time I looked, it was something like a pound an hour --

我上次看得時候一小時大概才一英鎊吧--

and if you have Skype, it's free.

而且如果你有用Skype的話還免費。

So capabilities

所以在以前

that were once restricted

僅限於少數人特權

are now available to everyone.

現在已經到了普及大眾的程度。

And what that means

而這表示的

is not that the age of the State is over.

並不是美國的時代已經結束了。

The State still matters.

美國仍然很重要。

But the stage is crowded.

但是國際舞台上變得更擁擠，

The State's not alone. There are many, many actors.

美國並不孤單。還有很多很多的參與者。

Some of that's good:

有些是好的：

Oxfam,

像，樂施會，

a great non-governmental actor.

這是一個很棒的非政府組織。

Some of it's bad:

有些是不好的：

Al Qaeda, another non-governmental actor.

蓋達組織，另一個非政府組織。

But think of what it does

但想想這些

to how we think in traditional terms and concepts.

對我們傳統的觀念做了哪些改變。

We think in terms of war

我們用戰爭

and interstate war.

或國與國之間的戰爭的角度來思考。

And you can think back to 1941

而你們可以回想一下，在1941年

when the government of Japan

日本政府

attacked the United States at Pearl Harbor.

攻擊了美國珍珠港。

It's worth noticing

值得一提的是

that a non-state actor

一個非政府的組織

attacking the United States in 2001

在2001年對美國的攻擊

killed more Americans

比1941年日本政府

than the government of Japan did in 1941.

殺的美國人還要多。

You might think of that

你可以想成

as the privatization of war.

這是戰爭的私有化。

So we're seeing a great change

所以我們正看到了很大的改變

in terms of diffusion of power.

發生在權力擴散這方面。

Now the problem is

現在問題是

that we're not thinking about it in very innovative ways.

我們並沒有用很創新的想法來考量這個現象。

So let me step back

讓我們來重新檢視，

and ask: what's power?

來問問: 權力是什麼?

Power is simple the ability

權力，最簡單來說就是

to affect others

“影響別人

to get the outcomes you want,

去得到你想要的結果的能力。”

and you can do it in three ways.

而這可以用三種方式達成：

You can do it with threats

你可以使用威脅，

of coercion, "sticks,"

強勢的逼迫--棍子；

you can do it with payments,

你也可以使用金錢--

"carrots,"

紅蘿蔔；

or you can do it by getting others

或你可以讓別人

to want what you want.

去想要你所想要的結果。

And that ability to get others to want what you want,

而用這種使別人想要你所想要的能力

to get the outcomes you want

來達到你想要的結果，

without coercion or payment,

沒有威脅或金錢利誘

is what I call soft power.

我稱之為軟實力。

And that soft power has been much neglected

而軟實力常常被忽略

and much misunderstood,

甚至誤解。

and yet it's tremendously important.

但其實它扮演了極度重要的角色。

Indeed, if you can learn

沒錯，如果你能學習

to use more soft power,

去使用更多的軟實力，

you can save a lot

你可以省下很多的

on carrots and sticks.

紅蘿蔔和棍子。

Traditionally, the way people thought about power

傳統來說，大多數人想到權力的時候，

was primarily in terms of military power.

主要都是以武力的角度來想。

For example, the great Oxford historian

舉個例子：偉大的牛津史學家

who taught here at this university, A.J.P. Taylor,

A.J.P.泰勒曾在這間大學教書。

defined a great power

他定義一個強權

as a country able to prevail in war.

為一個在戰爭裡能夠得勝的國家。

But we need a new narrative

但我們需要一個新的闡述方法

if we're to understand power in the 21st century.

來幫助我們了解二十一世紀裡的權力。

It's not just prevailing at war,

這不只是在戰爭中得勝，

though war still persists.

雖然戰爭持續在發生，

It's not whose army wins;

這不是誰的軍隊可以贏，

it's also whose story wins.

而也是誰的故事可以贏。

And we have to think much more in terms of narratives

而我們必須要多多以故事的角度來想，

and whose narrative is going to be effective.

看看誰的故事會是最有效的。

Now let me go back

現在讓我回到

to the question

有關於

of power transition

權力轉移於

between states

不同國家之間的問題

and what's happening there.

和現在的情況究竟是如何。

the narratives that we use now

我們現在所使用的闡述方法，

tend to be the rise and fall

常常是強權的

of the great powers.

崛起和殞落。

And the current narrative is all about

而當前我們看到的全部都是

the rise of China

中國的崛起

and the decline of the United States.

和美國的衰退。

Indeed, with the 2008 financial crisis,

沒錯，2008年的財務危機，

many people said this was

很多人說這是

the beginning of the end of American power.

美國強權結束的開始。

The tectonic plates

世界政治的

of world politics were shifting.

結構板塊正在轉移。

And president Medvedev of Russia, for example,

而舉個例子來說：俄羅斯的總統梅德維傑夫

pronounced in 2008

在2008年對外宣稱

this was the beginning of the end

這是美國強權

of United States power.

結束的開始。

But in fact,

但事實上，

this metaphor of decline

這種所謂衰退的象徵

is often very misleading.

是非常誤導人的。

If you look at history, in recent history,

如果你看看歷史，最近的歷史，

you'll see the cycles of belief

你會看到每隔十到十五年，

in American decline

就會出現對於

come and go every 10 or 15 years or so.

美國衰退的看法。

In 1958,

在1958年，

after the Soviets put up Sputnik,

蘇聯把史普尼克1號送上太空之後，

it was "That's the end of America."

很多人說「那是美國的末日。」

In 1973, with the oil embargo

在1973年的石油禁運

and the closing of the gold window,

以及美元和黃金互相轉換的結束，

that was the end of America.

很多人也說那是美國的末日。

In the 1980s,

在1980年代，

as America went through a transition in the Reagan period,

當美國經歷了雷根總統任內的經濟轉換--

between the rust belt economy of the midwest

從美國中西部的銹帶經濟

to the Silicon Valley economy of California,

到加州的矽谷經濟--

that was the end of America.

很多人也說那是美國的末日。

But in fact, what we've seen

但事實上，我們所看到的

is none of those were true.

是沒有任何一個關於美國末日的說法是事實。

Indeed, people were over-enthusiastic

沒錯，人們在2000年代早期

in the early 2000s,

是過度樂觀的，

thinking America could do anything,

他們相信美國什麼都做得到，

which led us into some disastrous

進而導致一些災難性的

foreign policy adventures,

外交政策，

and now we're back to decline again.

現在我們又回到了美國正在衰退這個論點。

The moral of this story

這個故事的寓意指出

is all these narratives about rise and fall and decline

所有這些有關崛起衰退再崛起的看法，

tell us a lot more about psychology

告訴我們很多關於心理層面的想法，

than they do about reality.

而不真正是對現實的描述。

If we try to focus on the reality,

如果我們試著專注於現實，

then what we need to focus on

那我們真的要關心的

is what's really happening

是在中國和美國之間

in terms of China and the United States.

真的在發生的事情。

Goldman Sachs has projected

高盛集團預測

that China, the Chinese economy,

中國和中國的經濟

will surpass that of the U.S.

會在2027年

by 2027.

超越美國。

So we've got, what,

所以我們還有，

17 more years to go or so

大約十七多年

before China's bigger.

才會等到中國比美國壯大。

Now someday,

有一天，

with a billion point three people getting richer,

當十三億人同時的富有起來

they are going to be bigger than the United States.

他們會比美國還要強大。

But be very careful about these projections

但我們應該謹慎來看，

such as the Goldman Sachs projection

像是由高盛集團所提出的這些預測。

as though that gives you an accurate picture

這些並不能告訴你們

of power transition in this century.

這個世紀裡權力會如何真正的轉移。

Let me mention three reasons why it's too simple.

讓我提出三個為什麼這些預測太簡易的原因：

First of all, it's a linear projection.

第一，這些預測都是直線形的預測。

You know, everything says,

你們知道，所有的資料顯示

here's the growth rate of China, here's the growth rate of the U.S.,

這是中國的成長率，而那是美國的成長率

here it goes -- straight line.

所以我們來就用這些成長率來做線形的預測。

History is not linear.

歷史不是直線形的，

There are often bumps along the road, accidents along the way.

歷史的長路上中間常常會有凸塊甚至有意外發生。

The second thing is

第二點，

that the Chinese economy

當中國的經濟

passes the U.S. economy in, let's say, 2030,

在，我們假設2030年好了，超越美國的經濟，

which it may it,

這有可能會發生，

that will be a measure of total economic size,

那會是一個整個經濟體的測量，

but not of per capita income --

但不是人均收入的測量--

won't tell you about the composition of the economy.

也就是那並不會顯示整個經濟體的結構。

China still has large areas

中國仍然有大部分的區域

of underdevelopment

處於尚未開發的狀態，

and per capita income is a better measure

而人均收入是一個比較好的測量方式，

of the sophistication of the economy.

尤其對於中國如此複雜的經濟體。

And that the Chinese won't catch up or pass the Americans

而中國人在人均收入

until somewhere in the latter part,

在這個世紀後期，2050年以後

after 2050, of this century.

都不會追上或超越美國人的人均收入。

The other point that's worth noticing

第三點值得注意的

is how one-dimensional

是這些預測

this projection is.

都是只考慮單方面的。

You know, it looks at economic power

你們知道，當測量經濟實力的時候

measured by GDP.

採用的是國內生產總值，

Doesn't tell you much about military power,

這沒辦法告訴你多少關於軍事實力，

doesn't tell you very much about soft power.

沒辦法告訴你多少關於軟實力，

It's all very one-dimensional.

這完全是一維化的。

And also, when we think about the rise of Asia,

同時，當我們想到亞洲崛起，

or return of Asia

或我早些對這個現象的稱呼

as I called it a little bit earlier,

亞洲重返國際舞臺的時候，

it's worth remembering Asia's not one thing.

我們應該要記得亞洲不是一個個體.

If you're sitting in Japan,

如果你坐在日本、

or in New Delhi,

新德里、

or in Hanoi,

或是河內，

your view of the rise of China

那你對中國崛起的看法

is a little different than if you're sitting in Beijing.

將會和你坐在北京的看法有些不同。

Indeed, one of the advantages

沒錯，美國

that the Americans will have

在亞洲的權力分配裡

in terms of power in Asia

將會有的優勢之一，

is all those countries

是很多亞洲國家

want an American insurance policy

會想要有美國作靠山

against the rise of China.

來抗衡中國的崛起。

It's as though Mexico and Canada

這就像是如果墨西哥和加拿大

were hostile neighbors to the United States,

是美國危險的鄰居--

which they're not.

他們當然不是。

So these simple projections

所以這些例如高盛

of the Goldman Sachs type

所做的簡單的預測，

are not telling us what we need to know