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  • You know, to understand exchange rates, you really need to grasp one concept: foreign

    你知道嗎?想了解匯率是什麼,你一定要知道一個概念:外匯

  • exchange, i.e., foreign money, is really just another commodity to be bought and sold. This

    如:外幣,只是一種可買賣的商品而已。

  • is where the term foreign exchange market comes from. It’s a market, so there must

    這就是「外匯市場」的來由。它是一種市場,所以一定會有

  • be those who want to buy the currency, and those who supply it.

    人想買外幣(需求者),和賣外幣(供給者)。

  • On the demand side, what reason (or reasons) could people possibly have to want to purchase

    以需求面而言,有什麼原因會讓人想持有外幣?

  • foreign exchange? Well, there are three major reasons really: First, people want foreign

    實際上,有三大理由:一、人們拿

  • money for travel and tourism; second, foreign money is needed for trade, to buy foreign

    外幣去外地旅遊觀光;二、外幣可用來交易國外商品或服務;

  • goods and services; third, foreign money is needed for investment purposes, be it financial

    三、外幣可用來當作投資的標的,作為金融性投資

  • investment, like purchase of foreign-denominated financial assets, or real investment, like

    如外國證券,或實質投資

  • building a new factory overseas. A change in any of these three components will alter

    如在海外建廠。只要這三項因素有所改變,

  • the demand for foreign exchange.

    外匯的需求面就會改變。

  • For example, a lot of recent Hollywood blockbuster movies have been filmed in New Zealand; what

    例如:最近許多好來塢的賣座片都在紐西蘭拍攝,

  • if this creates a sudden surge in tourists going to New Zealand? These tourists will

    這會不會對當地造成一股觀光熱潮?這些觀光客

  • need New Zealand dollars, creating an increase in demand for that currency. Similarly, if

    需要紐西蘭幣(紐元),這就會讓該幣的需求增加。同樣的,

  • US companies decide they’d like to build factories in New Zealand (real investment),

    如果美國一間有名的企業打算在紐西蘭設廠(一種實質投資),

  • or purchase NZ$-denominated financial assets (financial investment), the demand for the

    或增加以紐元計價的證券投資(金融性投資),紐元的

  • New Zealand dollar would increase.

    需求會上升。

  • Now let's go back to the idea of the foreign exchange market, with the New Zealand dollar

    現在,讓我們回到以紐元計價的

  • being the foreign exchange. Initially, there is a certain supply of New Zealand dollars,

    外匯市場。一開始,會有一定數量的紐元供給和需求。

  • and a certain demand. The equilibrium price in this market is called the exchange rate.

    該市場的平衡價格即為「匯率」。

  • OK; now let's throw the increase in demand for the New Zealand dollar into the picture.

    現在,我們在圖裡增加當紐元需求增加時所畫出的需求線。

  • What happens to the value of the New Zealand dollar as more tourists travel there, or as

    當有更多的觀光客湧進新紐西蘭,或更多的美國廠商想在該地投資時,

  • more US companies invest? As with any commodity, when the demand for the New Zealand dollar

    紐元的價值發生了什麼改變?就像其他商品,當紐元的需求增強時,

  • increases, its value increases. We see the exchange rate, in terms of the US dollar per

    其價值也會上升。我們看到,以美元/紐元計價的匯率,

  • New Zealand dollar, increase. This is called an appreciation of the New Zealand dollar.

    升高了。這稱為紐元的「升值」。

  • When dealing with bilateral exchange rates like this one -- that is to say, the relative

    當處理這種雙邊實質匯率,也就是,

  • value of two currenciesit is necessarily the case that is one currency becomes stronger,

    兩種貨幣的相對價值,其中一種貨幣會比另一種還強勢,

  • or more valuable, relative to the other -- in this case, the New Zealand dollar is increasing

    也就是其價值增加了。在這個例子哩,紐元相較於美元

  • in value relative to the US dollar -- the other currency is decreasing in value, or

    變得比較強勢,也就是另外一種貨幣,價值下降了,也就是所謂的「貶值」。

  • depreciating. In this example, as the New Zealand dollar appreciates, the US dollar

    在這個例子哩,當紐元升值時,美元相對而言

  • is getting relatively weaker, or depreciating.

    就變得比較弱勢,也就是貶值了。

  • OK, so changes in demand for currency will affect the exchange rate. What about changes

    好,所以改變貨幣需求會影響匯率。那改變貨幣供給呢?

  • in supply? Well, ultimately who is it that controls the supply of foreign currency? The

    事實上,我們想問的是:究竟是什麼因素在影響外幣的供給?

  • foreign government. If the US wanted to drive the value of its own currency up, it would

    答案是外國的政府。如果美元想要升值,

  • decrease the supply of dollars. If it wanted to drive value down, it would increase the

    它只需要降低貨幣供給就可以了。如果美元想要貶值,它只需要

  • supply of dollars. Why would a country one manipulate its own currency value?

    增加貨幣供給就可以了。為什麼一個國家的政府會想改變其貨幣價值?

  • Let me give you an example. Suppose you are a US furniture producer, and government protection

    讓我給你一個例子:假設你是一個美國家具製造商,而政府

  • for the spotted owl means you can’t get the lumber that you need domestically. So

    打算保護斑點鴞的棲息地,這表示你沒辦法在國內取得木材。

  • you call up a Canadian lumber mill, tell them you’d like to place an order, and they tell

    所以你決定打給位在加拿大的製木場,告訴他你想訂購一些木材,

  • you that the lumber is going to cost CAN$50,000. I don’t know about you, but my bank account

    而對方回應你說:費用是加幣50000元。我不知道你的情況,不過至少我的銀行帳戶裡

  • doesn't happen to have any Canadian dollars in it. This is where the exchange rate comes

    是沒有加幣的。這時:匯率就變得重要起來了。

  • in. If I can figure out how much one Canadian dollar costs, then I can use that to calculate

    如果我能算出一加幣等於多少美金的話,那我就可以算出

  • how much 50,000 Canadian dollars will cost. The price of one Canadian dollar, in terms

    50000加幣值多少美金。一加幣等於多少美元,

  • of US dollars, is the exchange rate (dollars per Canadian dollar). I checked the dollar

    就是匯率(美元/加幣)。我在x-rate.com查了一下

  • per Canadian dollar exchange rate for April 7, 2010 on x-rates.com, and found that CAN$1

    2010年4/7加幣對美元的匯率,發現1加幣

  • was equivalent to US$.998.

    相當於0.998美元。

  • Just as a side note, this nearly one-to-one parity between the two country’s currencies

    順便提一下,其實這種兩國貨幣接近1:1平價的狀況

  • is highly unusual. More on that in a minute.

    並不常見。情況很罕見。

  • So if one Canadian dollar costs 99.8 cents US currency, how much will CAN$50,000 cost?

    所以如果1加幣相當於99.8美分的話,那50000加幣值美金多少錢?

  • In the end, it will cost you US$49,900 to purchase the Canadian lumber. Now let’s

    最後,你會發現你需要花49900美元來向加國製木場購買木材。(譯注:影片中的圖畫打錯了,應該是49900美元才對)

  • take a little trip back in time, and figure out how much that same C$50,000 worth of lumber

    現在,我們來稍微時光倒流一下,看看最近這20年內,加幣50000元

  • would've cost in April of each year for the previous 20 years. When would you most like

    在每年4月時各值美金多少錢。在哪個時間點下

  • to have purchased that lumber? You can see by looking at the data, that when the foreign

    你會最想去購買這批木材?在審視這些資料後,你會發現

  • currency is the cheapest, in this case 2001, at $.64 per Canadian dollar, the foreign imports

    當外幣最便宜時(也就是外幣相對弱勢時),在這個例子裡是2001年,1加幣等於0.64美元,

  • are the cheapest -- US$32,000. Even if the Canadian lumber mill sees the same CAN$50,000

    從外國進口商品會最便宜-值32000美元。即使每年從加拿大進口木材都是50000加幣,

  • every year, the price to the US importer changes as the exchange rate changes. When the Canadian

    但美國進口商實際付出的美金是隨匯率而變動的。當加幣

  • dollar depreciates, the lumber is cheaper, and US importers will buy more lumber. On

    貶值時,(外國進口加國)木材就會變得比較便宜,而美國進口商就會想進口更多木材。

  • the flip side, as the Canadian dollar depreciates, the US dollar is getting stronger relative

    另一方面,當加幣貶值時,美元對加幣就會變得比較強勢,

  • to the Canadian dollar, or it’s appreciating. While US consumers are enjoying a strong dollar

    或可以說是美元升值。當美國的消費者靠著美元的強勢

  • and buying lots of Canadian goods, Canadians are seeing the US dollar, and therefore US

    買進許多加國商品時,加拿大人會覺得美元,和

  • goods, as more expensive. Canadians import fewer US products if the Canadian currency

    美國的商品,比較貴。加拿大在其貨幣比較弱勢時,會進口比較少的美國商品。

  • is weak. A weak Canadian dollar is good for Canada's trade balance, as Canada's exports

    弱勢的加幣對加拿大的淨出口比較有優勢,因為

  • rise and imports fall. At the same time, the US trade balance gets worse -- we are importing

    加拿大的出口增加,進口減少。而美國的貿易帳變得比較差,

  • more and exporting less.

    進口更多而出口更少。

  • The effect of the currency value on the trade balance takes me back to the question: why

    貨幣價值對淨出口的效果讓我們可以回答先前的問題:

  • would a country want to manipulate its own currency value? You now know the answer to

    為什麼一個國家會想要操控該國的貨幣價值?現在你知道答案了。

  • this; if a country can keep its currency cheap, then it keeps its products cheap, and foreign

    如果該國的貨幣比較便宜,則其商品也會比較便宜,

  • products expensive -- both of which are good for the balance of trade.

    外國商品相對的就比較貴。這兩種效果都對淨出口有利。

  • The US has certainly been after China during the first decade of the 21st century; China

    美國現在的貿易量在21世紀的第一個十年僅落後於中國;

  • keeps its currency value artificially low in order to keep favorable trade balance.

    中國以人為的方式強制讓人民幣低於正常水準,以讓淨出口增加。

  • NEXT TIME: Comparative advantage and trade

    下一節:比較利益的交易模式

You know, to understand exchange rates, you really need to grasp one concept: foreign

你知道嗎?想了解匯率是什麼,你一定要知道一個概念:外匯

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B1 中級 中文 美國腔 匯率 美元 木材 商品 進口 比較

宏觀)第33集:匯率 ((Macro) Episode 33: Exchange Rates)

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    張強 發佈於 2021 年 01 月 14 日
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